The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 16, 2013

2013 Conference USA Preview

 

Conference USA takes a major hit across its bough with the defections of four schools, three of which have been to multiple bowls in recent seasons.  In their place, three teams from the Sunbelt and one team from the football defunct WAC take their place.

 

In past seasons, this league has been in contention for a BCS at-large bowl bid, as well as a major challenge to the Mountain West for top non-automatic qualifying conference.  In the new alignment, CUSA falls to just above the Sunbelt.

 

New Teams: Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, Texas-San Antonio

Departed Teams: Central Florida, Houston, Memphis, S M U

 

2014 Additions: Western Kentucky arrives from the Sunbelt Conference and Old Dominion moves from FCS.  Charlotte will become a member in 2015.

 

2014 Departures: The league loses much of its prestige with Tulsa and East Carolina as well as Tulane to the AAC.

 

Pre-season PiRate Ratings

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

East Carolina

0-0

0-0

98.6

101.7

100.1

Marshall

0-0

0-0

92.8

99.8

94.3

U A B

0-0

0-0

87.6

94.4

87.9

Middle Tennessee

0-0

0-0

86.4

88.1

86.0

Southern Miss.

0-0

0-0

83.0

90.4

83.6

Florida Atlantic

0-0

0-0

82.0

81.6

80.8

Florida Int’l

0-0

0-0

74.7

79.4

74.5

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Tulsa

0-0

0-0

98.1

100.8

99.4

Rice

0-0

0-0

97.0

101.6

98.5

North Texas

0-0

0-0

90.8

89.5

90.6

Louisiana Tech

0-0

0-0

87.0

90.1

86.9

U T S A

0-0

0-0

86.4

86.1

85.1

U T E P

0-0

0-0

85.1

92.1

85.6

Tulane

0-0

0-0

84.2

93.8

84.0

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

88.1

92.1

88.4

 

 

Official Pre-season Media Poll

       

East Division

Pos.

Team

Pts

1st Place

1

East Carolina

95

11

2

Marshall

82

2

3

Middle Tennessee

70

1

4

U A B

54

0

5

Southern Miss

40

0

6

Florida Atlantic

28

0

7

Florida Int’l

23

0

       

West Division

Pos.

Team

Pts

1st Place

1

Tulsa

98

14

2

Rice

76

0

3

Louisiana Tech

72

0

4

U T E P

46

0

5

North Texas

39

0

6

Tulane

31

0

7

Texas-San Antonio

30

0

 

 

Official Pre-season All-CUSA Team

 

OFFENSE

QB     Rakeem Cato, Jr., Marshall

RB     Vintavious Cooper, Sr., East Carolina

RB     Darrin Reaves, Jr., UAB

OL     Jake Alexander, Jr., Tulsa

OL     Stetson Burnett, Sr., Tulsa

OL     Scott Inskeep, Jr., UTSA

OL     Nate Richards, Sr., Rice

OL     Matt Shepperd, Jr., Louisiana Tech

OL     Will Simmons, Sr., East Carolina

WR    Justin Hardy, Jr., East Carolina

WR    Ryan Grant, Sr., Tulane

WR    Tommy Shuler, Jr., Marshall

TE      Gator Hoskins, Sr., Marshall

 

DEFENSE

DL     Christian Covington, So., Rice

DL     Justin Ellis, Sr., Louisiana Tech

DL     Greg Hickman, Sr., FIU

DL     Rakeem Nunez-Roches, DL, Southern Miss

LB      Shawn Jackson, Sr., Tulsa

LB      Derrell Johnson, Sr., East Carolina

LB      Andre Kirk, Jr., Florida Atlantic

DB     Kevin Byard, So., Middle Tennessee

DB     Lorenzo Doss, So., Tulane

DB     Phillip Gaines, Sr., Rice

DB     Marco Nelson, Sr., Tulsa

 

SPECIAL TEAMS

K       Cairo Santos, Sr., Tulane

P       Tyler Williams, So., Marshall

KR     Reggie Whatley, Jr., Middle Tennessee

PR     Trey Watts, Sr., Tulsa

 

 

PiRate Ratings Summary

 

About Grades

93-100         A+

86-92           A

79-85           A-

72-78           B+

65-71           B

58-64           B-

51-57           C+

44-50           C

37-43           C-

30-36           D

0-29             F

 

About Predictions

Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in.  The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.

 

EAST DIVISION

 

Team

East Carolina Pirates

               
Head Coach

Ruffin McNeill

               
Colors

Purple and Gold

               
City

Greenville, NC

               
2012 Record              
Conference

7-1

Overall

8-5

               
Grades              
Run Offense

52

Pass Offense

81

Run Defense

69

Pass Defense

51

               
Ratings              
PiRate

98.6

Mean

101.7

Bias

100.1

               
Rankings              
PiRate

64

Mean

52

Bias

56

               
Prediction              
Conference

7-1

Overall

8-4

 

 

Team

Marshall Thundering Herd

               
Head Coach

Doc Holliday

               
Colors

Kelly Green and White

               
City

Huntington, WV

               
2012 Record              
Conference

4-4

Overall

5-7

               
Grades              
Run Offense

63

Pass Offense

73

Run Defense

48

Pass Defense

46

               
Ratings              
PiRate

92.8

Mean

99.8

Bias

94.3

               
Rankings              
PiRate

86

Mean

62

Bias

80

               
Prediction              
Conference

7-1

Overall

9-4 (lose CUSA title game)

 

 

Team

U A B Blazers

               
Head Coach

Garrick McGee

               
Colors

Forest Green and Old Gold

               
City

Birmingham, AL

               
2012 Record              
Conference

2-6

Overall

3-9

               
Grades              
Run Offense

57

Pass Offense

69

Run Defense

39

Pass Defense

43

               
Ratings              
PiRate

87.6

Mean

94.4

Bias

87.9

               
Rankings              
PiRate

99

Mean

85

Bias

97

               
Prediction              
Conference

4-4

Overall

6-6

 

 

Team

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

               
Head Coach

Rick Stockstill

               
Colors

Blue and White

               
City

Murfreesboro, TN

               
2012 Record              
Conference

6-2 (Sunbelt Conf.)

Overall

8-4

               
Grades              
Run Offense

62

Pass Offense

59

Run Defense

47

Pass Defense

39

               
Ratings              
PiRate

86.4

Mean

88.1

Bias

86.0

               
Rankings              
PiRate

101

Mean

105

Bias

104

               
Prediction              
Conference

3-5

Overall

5-7

 

 

Team

Southern Miss Golden Eagles

               
Head Coach

Todd Monken

               
Colors

Black and Gold

               
City

Hattiesburg, MS

               
2012 Record              
Conference

0-8

Overall

0-12

               
Grades              
Run Offense

42

Pass Offense

51

Run Defense

42

Pass Defense

54

               
Ratings              
PiRate

83.0

Mean

90.4

Bias

83.6

               
Rankings              
PiRate

112

Mean

100

Bias

111

               
Prediction              
Conference

3-5

Overall

4-8

 

 

Team

Florida Atlantic Owls

               
Head Coach

Carl Pelini

               
Colors

Blue, Red, and Silver

               
City

Boca Raton, FL

               
2012 Record              
Conference

2-6 (Sunbelt Conf.)

Overall

3-9

               
Grades              
Run Offense

38

Pass Offense

60

Run Defense

40

Pass Defense

46

               
Ratings              
PiRate

82.0

Mean

81.6

Bias

80.8

               
Rankings              
PiRate

113

Mean

121

Bias

115

               
Prediction              
Conference

2-6

Overall

3-9

 

 

Team

Florida Int’l Golden Panthers

               
Head Coach

Ron Turner

               
Colors

Blue and Gold

               
City

Miami

               
2012 Record              
Conference

2-6 (Sunbelt Conf.)

Overall

3-9

               
Grades              
Run Offense

41

Pass Offense

55

Run Defense

31

Pass Defense

30

               
Ratings              
PiRate

74.7

Mean

79.4

Bias

74.5

               
Rankings              
PiRate

122

Mean

124

Bias

122

               
Prediction              
Conference

0-8

Overall

1-11

 

 

WEST DIVISION

 

Team

Tulsa Golden Hurricane

               
Head Coach

Bill Blankenship

               
Colors

Royal Blue and Old Gold

               
City

Tulsa, OK

               
2012 Record              
Conference

7-1

Overall

11-3

               
Grades              
Run Offense

68

Pass Offense

63

Run Defense

65

Pass Defense

58

               
Ratings              
PiRate

98.1

Mean

100.8

Bias

99.4

               
Rankings              
PiRate

69

Mean

60

Bias

62

               
Prediction              
Conference

7-1

Overall

10-3 (win CUSA title game)

 

 

Team

Rice Owls

               
Head Coach

David Bailiff

               
Colors

Blue and Gray

               
City

Houston

               
2012 Record              
Conference

4-4

Overall

7-6

               
Grades              
Run Offense

57

Pass Offense

67

Run Defense

63

Pass Defense

60

               
Ratings              
PiRate

97.0

Mean

101.6

Bias

98.5

               
Rankings              
PiRate

74

Mean

54

Bias

67

               
Prediction              
Conference

7-1

Overall

10-2

 

 

Team

North Texas Mean Green

               
Head Coach

Dan McCarney

               
Colors

Green and White

               
City

Denton, TX

               
2012 Record              
Conference

3-5

Overall

4-8

               
Grades              
Run Offense

47

Pass Offense

66

Run Defense

52

Pass Defense

55

               
Ratings              
PiRate

90.8

Mean

89.5

Bias

90.6

               
Rankings              
PiRate

90

Mean

103

Bias

92

               
Prediction              
Conference

5-3

Overall

6-6

 

 

Team

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

               
Head Coach

Skip Holtz

               
Colors

Reflex Blue and Red

               
City

Ruston, LA

               
2012 Record              
Conference

4-2 (WAC)

Overall

9-3

               
Grades              
Run Offense

43

Pass Offense

78

Run Defense

45

Pass Defense

38

               
Ratings              
PiRate

87.0

Mean

90.1

Bias

86.9

               
Rankings              
PiRate

100

Mean

101

Bias

100

               
Prediction              
Conference

4-4

Overall

6-6

 

 

Team

Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners

               
Head Coach

Larry Coker

               
Colors

Navy Blue and Orange

               
City

San Antonio

               
2012 Record              
Conference

3-3 (WAC)

Overall

8-4

               
Grades              
Run Offense

42

Pass Offense

64

Run Defense

55

Pass Defense

43

               
Ratings              
PiRate

86.4

Mean

86.1

Bias

85.1

               
Rankings              
PiRate

102

Mean

112

Bias

108

               
Prediction              
Conference

3-5

Overall

4-8

 

 

Team

U T E P Miners

               
Head Coach

Sean Kugler

               
Colors

Dark Navy and Orange

               
City

El Paso, TX

               
2012 Record              
Conference

2-6

Overall

3-9

               
Grades              
Run Offense

51

Pass Offense

71

Run Defense

39

Pass Defense

37

               
Ratings              
PiRate

85.1

Mean

92.1

Bias

85.6

               
Rankings              
PiRate

108

Mean

94

Bias

107

               
Prediction              
Conference

3-5

Overall

5-7

 

 

Team

Tulane Green Wavy

               
Head Coach

Curtis Johnson

               
Colors

Olive Green and Sky Blue

               
City

New Orleans

               
2012 Record              
Conference

2-6

Overall

2-10

               
Grades              
Run Offense

44

Pass Offense

71

Run Defense

39

Pass Defense

39

               
Ratings              
PiRate

84.2

Mean

93.8

Bias

84.0

               
Rankings              
PiRate

110

Mean

87

Bias

110

               
Prediction              
Conference

1-7

Overall

3-9

 

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