The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 15, 2013

2013 Sunbelt Conference Football Preview

2013 Sunbelt Conference Preview

 

Once again, the Sunbelt Conference kicks off our PiRate Ratings Previews for a new college football season.  We preview the conferences in reverse order of overall league average, and the SBC brings up the rear once again.  Whereas in past seasons, this league was not that far behind its non-automatic-qualifying conference brethren, changes due to defections and new additions have damaged the league.

New Teams: Georgia State and Texas State

Departed Teams: Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Middle Tennessee, North Texas

2014 Additions: New Mexico St. and Idaho return to the league they left after 2003, while FCS teams Appalachian St. and Georgia Southern move to FBS

2014 Departures: Western Kentucky moves to CUSA

 

Pre-season PiRate Ratings

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana—Monroe

0-0

0-0

96.8

93.0

98.0

Arkansas St.

0-0

0-0

93.6

87.6

93.5

Louisiana—Lafayette

0-0

0-0

92.4

91.6

92.2

Western Kentucky

0-0

0-0

89.5

93.5

90.3

Troy

0-0

0-0

85.5

87.0

87.1

Texas St.

0-0

0-0

80.6

87.8

79.9

South Alabama

0-0

0-0

79.9

82.7

80.5

Georgia St.

0-0

0-0

60.7

71.5

62.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

84.9

86.8

85.5

 

Official Sunbelt Media Poll

 

     

Pos.

Team

Points

1st Place

 

     

1 (tie)

Louisiana-Lafayette

57

4

 

     

1 (tie)

Louisiana-Monroe

57

2

 

     

3

Arkansas St.

45

2

 

     

4

Western Kentucky

44

0

 

     

5

Troy

35

0

 

     

6

Texas St.

23

0

 

     

7

South Alabama

19

0

 

     

8

Georgia St.

8

0

 

 

 

 

Official Pre-season All-Sunbelt Conference Team

Offense
Kolton Browning (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., QB)
David Oku (Arkansas State, Sr., RB)
Antonio Andrews (WKU, Sr., RB)
J.D. McKissic (Arkansas State, So., WR)
Je’Ron Hamm (ULM, Sr., WR)
Eric Thomas (Troy, Sr. WR)
Wes Saxton (South Alabama, Jr., TE)
Bryce Giddens (Arkansas State, So., OL)
Andre Huval (Louisiana-Lafayette, Sr., OL)
Josh Allen (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., OL)
Terrence Jones (Troy, Jr., OL)
Sean Conway (WKU, Sr., OL)
 
Defense
Ryan Carrethers (Arkansas State, Sr., DL)
Christian Ringo (Louisiana-Lafayette, Jr., DL)
Kentarius Caldwell (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., DL)
Alex Page (South Alabama, Sr., DL)
Qushaun Lee (Arkansas State, Jr., LB)
Justin Anderson (Louisiana-Lafayette, Sr., LB)
Andrew Jackson (WKU, Jr., LB)
Sterling Young (Arkansas State, Jr., DB)
Isaiah Newsome (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., DB)
Tyrell Pearson (South Alabama, Sr., DB)
Jonathan Dowling (WKU, Sr., DB)
 
Special Teams
Brian Davis (Arkansas State, Sr., K)
Will Scott (Troy, Sr., P)
Antonio Andrews (WKU, Sr., Return Specialist)
 
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year
Kolton Browning (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., QB)
 
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year
Andrew Jackson (WKU, Jr., LB)

 

 

PiRate Ratings Summary

 

About Grades

93-100    A+

86-92      A

79-85      A-

72-78      B+

65-71      B

58-64      B-

51-57      C+

44-50      C

37-43      C-

30-36      D

0-29        F

 

About Predictions

Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in.  The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.

 

Team

UL-Monroe Warhawks

             
Head Coach

Todd Berry

             
Colors

Maroon & Gold

             
City

Monroe, LA

             
2012 Record            
Conference

6-2

Overall

8-5

             
Grades            
Run Offense

57

Pass Offense

76

Run Defense

62

Pass Defense

51

             
Ratings              
PiRate

96.8

Mean

93.0

Bias

98.0

             
Rankings              
PiRate

76

Mean

90

Bias

72

               
Prediction              
Conference

6-1

Overall

8-4

Team

Arkansas State Red Wolves

             
Head Coach

Bryan Harsin

             
Colors

Scarlet & Black

             
City

Jonesboro, AR

             
2012 Record            
Conference

7-1

Overall

10-3

             
Grades            
Run Offense

67

Pass Offense

67

Run Defense

52

Pass Defense

49

             
Ratings              
PiRate

93.6

Mean

87.6

Bias

93.5

             
Rankings              
PiRate

83

Mean

108

Bias

84

               
Prediction              
Conference

6-1

Overall

9-3

Team

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns

             
Head Coach

Mark Hudspeth

             
Colors

Vermillion and White

             
City

Lafayette, LA

             
2012 Record            
Conference

6-2

Overall

9-4

             
Grades            
Run Offense

67

Pass Offense

71

Run Defense

49

Pass Defense

43

             
Ratings              
PiRate

92.4

Mean

91.6

Bias

92.2

             
Rankings              
PiRate

87

Mean

98

Bias

88

               
Prediction              
Conference

5-2

Overall

8-4

Team

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

             
Head Coach

Bobby Petrino

             
Colors

Red and White

             
City

Bowling Green, KY

             
2012 Record            
Conference

4-4

Overall

7-6

             
Grades            
Run Offense

53

Pass Offense

60

Run Defense

48

Pass Defense

55

             
Ratings              
PiRate

89.5

Mean

93.5

Bias

90.3

             
Rankings              
PiRate

93

Mean

89

Bias

93

               
Prediction              
Conference

5-2

Overall

8-4

Team

Troy Trojans

             
Head Coach

Larry Blakeney

             
Colors

Red, Black, and Gray

             
City

Troy, AL

             
2012 Record            
Conference

3-5

Overall

5-7

             
Grades            
Run Offense

36

Pass Offense

72

Run Defense

41

Pass Defense

47

             
Ratings              
PiRate

85.5

Mean

87.0

Bias

87.1

             
Rankings              
PiRate

106

Mean

109

Bias

99

               
Prediction              
Conference

3-4

Overall

4-8

Team

Texas State Bobcats

             
Head Coach

Dennis Franchione

             
Colors

Maroon and Gold

             
City

San Marcos, TX

             
2012 Record            
Conference

2-4 (in WAC)

Overall

4-8

             
Grades            
Run Offense

52

Pass Offense

38

Run Defense

57

Pass Defense

40

             
Ratings              
PiRate

80.6

Mean

87.8

Bias

79.9

             
Rankings              
PiRate

117

Mean

106

Bias

118

               
Prediction              
Conference

2-5

Overall

4-8

Team

South Alabama Jaguars

             
Head Coach

Joey Jones

             
Colors

Red, White, and Blue

             
City

Mobile, AL

             
2012 Record            
Conference

1-7

Overall

2-11

             
Grades            
Run Offense

50

Pass Offense

46

Run Defense

46

Pass Defense

39

             
Ratings              
PiRate

79.9

Mean

82.7

Bias

80.5

             
Rankings              
PiRate

118

Mean

119

Bias

116

               
Prediction              
Conference

1-6

Overall

2-10

Team

Georgia State Panthers

             
Head Coach

Trent Miles

             
Colors

Royal Blue and White

             
City

Atlanta

             
2012 Record            
Conference

1-7 (in FCS:Colonial Athletic)

Overall

1-10

             
Grades            
Run Offense

17

Pass Offense

35

Run Defense

31

Pass Defense

19

             
Ratings              
PiRate

60.7

Mean

71.5

Bias

62.1

             
Rankings              
PiRate

125

Mean

125

Bias

125

               
Prediction              
Conference

0-7

Overall

0-12

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