The Pi-Rate Ratings

April 8, 2013

Bracketnomics 2013: National Championship Game–April 8, 2013

2013 NCAA Tournament— Championship Game, April 8, 2013

Time Eastern Daylight

 

Site: Georgia Dome in Atlanta

Network: CBS

Time

Favorite

Underdog

Line

9:23 PM

Louisville (34-5)

Michigan (31-7)

 4

Elite 8 Record: 1-1

Tournament Total: 39-23

Teams Remaining In Bracket: 1 of  2  (Louisville)

 

PiRate Ratings Criteria Formula Statistics

Criteria

Louisville

Michigan

Scoring Margin

16.0

12.4

FG% Margin

6.4

6.0

Rebound Margin

3.6

3.1

Turnover Margin

5.9

2.8

Steals

10.8

6.2

R+T

12.84

7.58

SOS

59.41

55.94

RD W%

82.6

70.0

Qualifiers

6

4

PiRate #

84.22

56.53

Modified

123.92

65.03

 

PiRate Criteria Means for 2000-2012 National Champions

 

Criteria

Champ Avg.

Scoring Margin

15.5

FG% Margin

8.7

Rebound Margin

6.2

Turnover Margin

1.3

Steals

7.8

R+T

9.29

SOS

57.09

RD W%

73.8

Qualifiers

7

PiRate #

75.88

Modified

94.78

 

 

Louisville Cardinals

Roster

#

NAME

HT

WT

POS

CL

HOMETOWN (PREVIOUS SCHOOL)

2

Russ Smith

6-00

165

G

JR

Brooklyn, N.Y. (Archbishop Molloy/South Kent)

3

Peyton Siva

6-00

185

G

SR

Seattle, Wash. (Franklin)

5

Kevin Ware

6-02

175

G

SO

Bronx, N.Y. (Rockdale County (Ga.))

10

Gorgui Dieng

6-11

245

C

JR

Kebemer, Senegal (Covenant/Huntington Prep)

11

Luke Hancock

6-06

200

F

JR

Roanoke, Va. (George Mason)

12

Mangok Mathiang

6-10

200

C

FR

Melbourne, Australia (IMG Academy (Fla.))

14

Logan Baumann

6-00

165

G

FR

Hartford, Ky. (Ohio County)

15

Tim Henderson

6-02

195

G

JR

Louisville, Ky. (Christian Academy)

20

Wayne Blackshear

6-05

230

G/F

SO

Chicago, Ill. (Morgan Park)

21

Chane Behanan

6-06

250

F

SO

Cincinnati, Ohio (Bowling Green)

22

Jordan Bond

6-00

165

G

FR

Louisville, Ky. (duPont Manual)

24

Montrezl Harrell

6-08

235

F

FR

Tarboro, N.C. (Hargrave Military Academy)

25

Zach Price

6-10

250

C

SO

Cleveland, Ohio (Jeffersontown)

32

Michael Baffour

6-02

170

G

JR

Lexington, Ky. (Bryan Station)

33

Mike Marra

6-05

215

G

SR

Smithfield, R.I. (Northfield Mt. Hermon School)

44

Stephan Van Treese

6-09

245

F

SR

Indianapolis, Ind. (Lawrence North)

 

Coach: Rick Pitino 12th year at UL: 309-111

28 seasons overall: 663-239

(Hawaii, Boston U, Providence, Kentucky, Louisville)

 

Team Stats—Louisville

Player

G

GS

Min

FG

FGA

FG%

3pt

3ptA

3pt%

FT

FTA

Russ Smith

39

39

1179

229

544

.421

61

183

.333

220

273

Gorgi Dieng

32

31

989

121

228

.531

0

0

.000

73

112

Peyton Siva

39

39

1211

133

329

.404

38

130

.292

79

92

Chane Behanan

38

36

990

146

288

.507

1

12

.083

73

135

Luke Hancock

39

8

867

92

220

.418

58

153

.379

60

78

Wayne Blackshear

38

33

763

102

243

.420

43

136

.316

43

62

Montrezl Harrell

39

3

637

96

167

.575

0

0

.000

32

63

Kevin Ware

37

1

616

59

132

.447

15

37

.405

34

51

Stephan Van Treese

36

1

412

26

40

.650

0

0

.000

12

17

Zach Price

16

7

123

8

15

.533

0

0

.000

4

8

Tim Henderson

26

0

98

8

23

.348

6

20

.300

0

0

Logan Baumann

4

0

11

0

4

.000

0

0

.000

2

2

Michael Baffour

6

0

12

0

3

.000

0

2

.000

2

4

Jordan Bond

5

0

17

0

3

.000

0

2

.000

0

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   
Totals

39

39

7925

1020

2239

.456

222

675

.329

634

897

Opponents

39

39

7925

800

2041

.392

213

678

.314

462

705

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   
Player

FT%

F

DQ

Ast

TO

Bk

Stl

Reb

Avg

Pts

Avg

Russ Smith

.806

98

0

114

105

2

83

131

3.4

739

18.9

Gorgi Dieng

.652

81

3

60

57

80

43

302

9.4

315

9.8

Peyton Siva

.859

100

3

223

104

6

86

88

2.3

383

9.8

Chane Behanan

.541

66

0

41

60

16

53

242

6.4

366

9.6

Luke Hancock

.769

80

1

52

39

3

38

104

2.7

302

7.7

Wayne Blackshear

.694

95

0

24

24

10

33

121

3.2

290

7.6

Montrezl Harrell

.508

50

0

8

23

27

20

145

3.7

224

5.7

Kevin Ware

.667

58

1

31

42

4

39

66

1.8

167

4.5

Stephan Van Treese

.706

45

0

9

13

11

18

114

3.2

64

1.8

Zach Price

.500

23

0

0

5

5

1

22

1.4

20

1.3

Tim Henderson

.000

7

0

3

6

1

6

12

0.5

22

0.8

Logan Baumann

1.000

1

0

0

1

0

0

3

0.8

2

0.5

Michael Baffour

.500

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0.2

2

0.3

Jordan Bond

.000

1

0

1

0

0

1

3

0.6

0

0.0

Team

 

 

 

 

7

 

 

85

2.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Totals

.707

705

8

566

486

165

421

1439

36.9

2896

74.3

Opponents

.655

751

X

398

718

129

221

1300

33.3

2275

58.3

 

 

Schedule

Opponent

Score

MANHATTAN  

79-51  

SAMFORD  

80-54  

MIAMI (OH)  

80-39  

vs NORTHERN IOWA  (Bahamas)

51-46  

vs MISSOURI  (Bahamas)

84-61  

vs DUKE  (Bahamas)

71-76  

ILLINOIS STATE  

69-66  

at COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON  

80-38  

MISSOURI-KANSAS CITY  

99-47  

at MEMPHIS  

87-78  

FIU  

79-55  

vs WESTERN KENTUCKY  (Nashville)

78-55  

KENTUCKY  

80-77  

PROVIDENCE  

80-62  

at SETON HALL  

73-58  

USF  

64-38  

at CONNECTICUT  

73-58  

SYRACUSE  

68-70  

at VILLANOVA  

64-73  

at GEORGETOWN  

51-53  

PITTSBURGH  

64-61  

MARQUETTE  

70-51  

at RUTGERS  

68-48  

at NOTRE DAME  

101-104  

ST. JOHN‘S  

72-58  

at USF  

59-41  

SETON HALL  

79-61  

at DEPAUL  

79-58  

at SYRACUSE  

58-53  

CINCINNATI  

67-51  

NOTRE DAME  

73-57  

vs VILLANOVA  (BE Tourn.)

74-55  

vs NOTRE DAME  (BE Tourn.)

69-57  

vs SYRACUSE  (BE Tourn.)

78-61  

vs NORTH CAROLINA A&T  (ncaa)

79-48  

vs COLORADO STATE  (ncaa)

82-56  

vs OREGON  (ncaa)

77-69  

vs DUKE  (ncaa)

85-63  

vs WICHITA STATE  (ncaa)

72-68  

 

 

Michigan Wolverines

Roster

#

Name

Ht.

Wt.

Pos.

Year

Hometown (High School)

1

Glenn Robinson III

6-06

210

F

FR

St. John, Ind. (Lake Central)

2

Spike Albrecht

5-11

170

G

FR

Crown Pt., Ind. (Northfield Mt. Hermon Prep MA)

3

Trey Burke

6-01

190

G

SO

Columbus, Ohio (Northland)

4

Mitch McGary

6-10

250

F

FR

Chesterton, Ind. (Brewster Academy [N.H.])

5

Eso Akunne

6-02

225

G

SR

Ann Arbor, Mich. (Gabriel Richard)

10

Tim Hardaway Jr.

6-06

205

G

JR

Miami, Fla. (Palmetto Senior)

11

Nik Stauskas

6-06

190

G

FR

Mississauga, Ontario (St. Mark’s School MA)

13

Matt Vogrich

6-04

200

G

SR

Lake Forest, Ill. (Lake Forest)

15

Jon Horford

6-10

250

F

SO

Grand Ledge, Mich. (Grand Ledge)

20

Josh Bartelstein

6-03

210

G

SR

Highland Pk., Ill. (Phillips Exeter Acad. [N.H.])

22

Blake McLimans

6-10

240

F

SR

Hamburg, N.Y. (Worcester Academy [Mass.])

23

Caris LeVert

6-05

170

G

FR

Pickerington, Ohio (Central)

32

Corey Person

6-03

210

G

GS

Kalamazoo, Mich. (Central)

44

Max Bielfeldt

6-07

245

F

FR

Peoria, Ill. (Notre Dame)

52

Jordan Morgan

6-08

250

F

JR

Detroit, Mich. (University of Detroit Jesuit)

 

Coach: John Beilein 6th year at UM: 122-84

35 seasons overall: 673-402

(Erie CC, Nazareth, LeMoyne, Canisius, Richmond, West Virginia, Michigan)

 

Team Stats

Michigan Wolverines

Player

G

GS

Min

FG

FGA

FG%

3pt

3ptA

3pt%

FT

FTA

Trey Burke

38

38

1352

252

549

.459

73

193

.378

126

157

Tim Hardaway, Jr.

37

37

1289

196

447

.438

73

191

.382

75

107

Nik Stauskas

38

32

1171

137

296

.463

79

180

.439

74

87

Glenn Robinson, III

38

38

1274

164

288

.569

23

70

.329

65

97

Mitch McGary

38

7

740

131

218

.601

0

0

.000

23

52

Jordan Morgan

35

27

565

71

121

.587

0

0

.000

22

41

Jon Horford

31

4

276

34

59

.576

0

0

.000

19

27

Caris LeVert

32

1

344

28

88

.318

13

42

.310

7

14

Spike Albrecht

38

0

289

22

50

.440

14

28

.500

9

10

Eso Akunne

18

0

51

8

26

.308

4

12

.333

1

2

Max Bielfeldt

20

0

106

9

20

.450

0

2

.000

5

12

Matt Vogrich

26

6

125

9

27

.333

5

19

.263

3

4

Corey Person

13

0

43

3

7

.429

2

3

.667

2

3

Blake McLimans

16

0

20

4

15

.267

2

11

.182

1

2

Josh Bartelstein

6

0

10

0

1

.000

0

0

.000

0

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   
Totals

38

38

7655

1068

2212

.483

288

751

.383

432

617

Opponents

38

38

7655

913

2160

.423

234

729

.321

325

480

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   
Player

FT%

F

DQ

Ast

TO

Bk

Stl

Reb

Avg

Pts

Avg

Trey Burke

.803

69

0

257

82

19

62

120

3.2

703

18.5

Tim Hardaway, Jr.

.701

73

0

89

69

17

26

172

4.6

540

14.6

Nik Stauskas

.851

23

0

50

43

9

21

114

3.0

427

11.2

Glenn Robinson, III

.670

43

0

41

32

10

39

209

5.5

416

10.9

Mitch McGary

.442

88

0

24

46

27

41

240

6.3

285

7.5

Jordan Morgan

.537

50

1

13

33

3

15

153

4.4

164

4.7

Jon Horford

.704

45

0

9

14

16

8

69

2.2

87

2.8

Caris LeVert

.500

38

0

25

9

2

5

33

1.0

76

2.4

Spike Albrecht

.900

23

0

28

12

1

12

30

0.8

67

1.8

Eso Akunne

.500

4

0

5

1

0

0

12

0.7

21

1.2

Max Bielfeldt

.417

8

0

3

3

1

3

31

1.6

23

1.2

Matt Vogrich

.750

8

0

5

3

0

2

23

0.9

26

1.0

Corey Person

.667

4

0

2

1

0

0

1

0.1

10

0.8

Blake McLimans

.500

4

0

1

1

1

1

13

0.8

11

0.7

Josh Bartelstein

.000

1

0

1

0

0

1

0

0.0

0

0.0

Team

 

 

 

 

7

 

 

119

3.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Totals

.700

481

1

553

356

106

236

1339

35.2

2856

75.2

Opponents

.677

583

10

476

461

121

200

1219

32.1

2385

62.8

 

 

Schedule

Opponent

Score

vs. Slippery Rock

100-62

vs. IUPUI TV (nit)

91-54

vs. Cleveland State (nit)

77-47

(n) Pittsburgh (nit)

67-62

(n) Kansas State (nit)

71-57

vs. No. 18 North Carolina State

79-72

at Bradley 

74-66

vs. Western Michigan 

73-41

vs. Arkansas 

80-67

vs. Binghamton 

67-39

(n) West Virginia (Brooklyn)

81-66

vs. Eastern Michigan 

93-54

vs. Central Michigan 

88-73

at Northwestern

94-66

vs. Iowa

95-67

vs. Nebraska

62-47

at No. 15 Ohio State

53-56

at No. 9 Minnesota

83-75

vs. Purdue

68-53

at Illinois

74-60

vs. Northwestern

68-46

at No. 3 Indiana

73-81

vs. No. 10 Ohio State

76-74 ot

at Wisconsin

62-65 ot

at Michigan State

52-75

vs. Penn State

79-71

vs. Illinois

71-58

at Penn State

78-84

vs. No. 9 Michigan State

58-57

at Purdue

80-75

vs. No. 2 Indiana

71-72

vs. Penn State (B10)

83-66

vs. No. 22 Wisconsin (B10)

59-68

vs. South Dakota State ncaa

71-56

vs. VCU ncaa

78-53

vs. No. 3 Kansas ncaa

87-85 ot

vs. No. 14 Florida ncaa

79-59

vs. No. 8 Syracuse ncaa

61-56

 

Positional Matchups

Point Guard: Louisville—(3) Peyton Siva               Michigan—(3)Trey Burke

This is where Michigan has to have a big night.  Burke is ice cold in the tournament so far, hitting a paltry 23-71 from the field and 8-31 from three-point territory.  The Wolverines were able to overcome Burke’s cold shooting, but the Cardinals will shut off the UM inside game on enough possessions to force Burke to beat them from the outside.

 

Siva is a talented play-maker and even better defender, so Burke may not get many open looks.  Siva does not have to score to be effective.  He is just one of several secondary options on the Cardinals’ team.  A steal at a key juncture of this game could change momentum and become the deciding factor in a close game, and Siva is much more likely to get that steal than any Michigan player.

 

Advantage: Push

 

Shooting Guard: Louisville—(2) Russ Smith          Michigan—(10) Tim Hardaway, Jr.

Smith has been hot during the tournament, and he has oftentimes carried the offensive load for Pitino.  He can be a streaky shooter, and in the last two weeks, that streak has been scorching to the nets.  Beilein’s game plan must start with keeping the ball away from him as much as possible.

 

Hardaway is a quality 2-guard who would be superior to about 62 of the other teams in the Big Dance.  However, Louisville is not one of those teams.  He will need help handling Smith, and he will need to use a lot of additional energy helping Burke against the Cardinals’ Matchup Press defense.

 

Advantage: Louisville

 

Small Forward: Louisville—(20) Wayne Blackshear        Michigan—(11) Nik Stauskas

This is the weakest position in this game, but it could become vitally important.  Stauskas is a hit or miss proposition.  If he hits a three-pointer early, his confidence could lead him to following that up with several more.  If Louisville’s perimeter is too quick for him, and he cannot get open looks, he will disappear on offense and not be much help on defense.

 

Blackshear is a proven commodity, but that commodity is not blue-chip.  He is a tough, hard-worker who will muscle his way on the boards and play consistent defense, but he will not win or lose this game.  Pitino knows what he will get from him and knows he will be rather consistent.

 

Advantage: Wildcard (It is a push, but only because Stauskas has a 50% chance of having a large advantage or large disadvantage depending on which Stauskas shows up).

 

Power Forward: Louisville—(21) Chane Behanan           Michigan—(1) Glenn Robinson, III

This should be a great matchup between like-minded players.  Both opponents help their teammates and make them look better, but neither player can carry the load.

 

Look for both players to score around 10 points and get 8 rebounds.  Behanan may be a little better inside, while Robinson is a little better helping on the perimeter.

 

Advantage: Push

 

Center: Louisville—(10) Gorgui Dieng       Michigan—(4) Mitch McGary

This position features two future NBA players that are just starting to reach their potentials.  Dieng is a fantastic defensive stopper in the paint, and he can imitate Dikembe Mutombo in the Geico commercials.  He is also a major force on the boards, and he can grab the ball on both ends of the floor.  His ability to stop the dribble-drive gives the rest of the team an opportunity to gamble in the press.

 

McGary is more of a prototypical post player.  He has more moves on the offensive end, and when the inside is crowded, he can locate the open perimeter and deliver a sharp, accurate pass that allows his teammate to shoot quickly.

 

Advantage: Michigan

 

Bench:

Pitino uses his bench more the Beilein, but when the Michigan reserves are in the game, they contribute without weakening the team.

 

The loss of Kevin Ware takes away a considerable part of the Cardinals’ bench production, but on the other hand, his teammates will get a boost with him there to cheer them on.

 

Advantage: Push

Our Pick: Here is how we see this game.  In the first half, both teams will be a little tight, and scoring will be rather low, much like the norm for this season.  It will appear to be dull for the first 10-12 minutes with the scoring at a sub-100-point pace (something like 12-10).

 

The offenses will step up and start to get untracked in the final 8 minutes of the half, and Louisville will finish on a mini-run to go into the locker room with a small lead (28-25 or so).

 

Michigan will gain some momentum early in the second half and have their best showing of the night during the first two of the four-minute stretches.  The Wolverines will take the lead and gain a little momentum, with the score looking like 37-34 with 12 minutes to play.

 

At this point, the Wolverines will start to tire.  Their starters played too many minutes in the semifinal win over Syracuse, and the relentless Cardinal pressure will start to have an effect.  A couple of turnovers and some forced shots due to fatigue will allow Louisville to regain the lead.  Beilein will have to take a timeout with UL leading 43-39 with 9 minutes left.

 

After a brief recovery, the fatigue will prove fatal, and Louisville will go for the jugular with a big run.  By the under 4 timeout, the Cardinals will have a nice cushion, something like 55-46.  Michigan will begin to force multiple ill-advised shots, and Louisville will get a couple of cheap baskets to ice the game.  A couple of late three-pointers will give the Wolverine fans some hope, but the Cardinals will hit some foul shots to clinch the national title.

 

FINAL SCORE: Louisville 62  Michigan 55

 

 

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