The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 30, 2013

Bracketnomics 2013: Elite 8–March 30-31, 2013

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:56 am

2013 NCAA Tournament— Elite 8 Schedule For Saturday, March 30-31, 2013

 

All times Eastern Daylight

Saturday, March 30, 2013

Time

Network

Region

Site

High Seed

Low Seed

4:30 PM

CBS

E

Washington, D. C.

3-Marquette (26-8)

4-Syracuse (29-9)

7:05 PM

CBS

W

Los Angeles

2-Ohio St. (29-7)

9-Wichita St. (29-8)

Sunday, March 31, 2013

Time

Network

Region

Site

High Seed

Low Seed

2:20 PM

CBS

S

Arlington, TX

3-Florida (29-7)

4-Michigan (29-7)

5:05 PM

CBS

MW

Indianapolis

1-Louisville (32-5)

2-Duke (30-5)

Tournament Total: 36-20Sweet 16 Record: 3-5 (almost totally busted)

Teams Remaining In Bracket: 2 of 8 (Only Louisville left of Final 4 choices, but they were our pick to go all the way)

Interesting Note: It is still possible that Ohio State and Michigan could meet in the National Championship Game. It would be an interesting rivalry game.

PiRate Criteria Stats (See our explanation on how we select our brackets at: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2013/03/17/bracketnomics-2013-a-statistical-look-at-bracket-selection/  )

Margins

Team

Scoring

FG%

Rebound

Turnover

Steals

R+T

SOS

Rd_WL%

Duke

13.0

6.4

-0.9

3.5

6.6

4.62

60.68

72.2

Florida

18.2

10.4

4.9

3.0

7.1

9.92

57.58

65.0

Louisville

16.3

6.1

3.8

6.3

11.0

13.56

59.41

80.0

Marquette

5.9

5.5

4.6

-0.6

6.8

5.24

58.15

52.9

Michigan

12.7

6.6

3.2

2.8

6.0

7.76

55.94

64.7

Ohio St.

11.4

6.1

3.1

2.9

6.8

7.94

58.57

70.6

Syracuse

12.1

6.8

4.1

2.9

9.0

9.38

59.29

61.1

Wichita St.

8.9

4.6

7.9

0.5

7.6

10.02

53.79

68.4

Game Previews

Marquette vs. Syracuse

When these two teams played in Milwaukee in late February, Syracuse was going through a swoon in which they lost four of five games.  The Orangemen blew a second half lead when Marquette began collapsing the SU zone defense and passing to the gaps for open jumpers.  Marquette forced the issue once Syracuse widened the zone, with Golden Eagle players driving the gaps and drawing fouls.  MU ended up 29-35 at the line, while the Orangemen were just 5-7.  Davante Gardner, benched by Coach Buzz Williams, came into the game a couple minutes into the opening half and scored a career-high 26 points on a perfect 7-7 from the field and an almost perfect 12-13 at the line.  Still, Marquette won at home by just three points, 74-71.

Expect different results in this game.  Remember, games are officiated differently, and no team will get 35 free throw attempts or have the benefit of getting “homer” calls.

This time, on a neutral floor, we expect the result to be different.  The ‘Cuse is a different team than the one that lost in Milwaukee five weeks ago.  Coach Jim Boeheim’s team enjoys an R+T number that equates to four extra scoring chances, and Syracuse has a better field goal percentage margin.  These advantages were accumulated while SU was playing a schedule that was more than a point per game better than Marquette.

PiRate Pick: Syracuse 70  Marquette 61

 

 

Ohio St. vs. Wichita St.

WichitaState looked like a Final Four team in their Sweet 16 win over La Salle, as well as previous wins over Pittsburgh and Gonzaga.  Meanwhile, OhioState has been quite fortunate to escape with wins in their last two games after trouncing Iona in their first tournament game.

This game should be another tight affair, as the two teams match up evenly.  OhioState has a slight, almost inconsequential, edge in field goal percentage margin.  WichitaState has a decided advantage in rebounding margin, but OhioState has a marked advantage in turnover margin.  However, the Buckeyes do not generate a lot of steals, and WichitaState has the R+T advantage by more than two extra scoring chances.  The boys from Columbus take the upper hand due to a considerably stronger strength of schedule, to the tune of almost five points per game.  Coach Thad Matta’s team is also the better team away from home, and that tilts the scale in his favor.

 

PiRate Pick: Ohio St. 78  Wichita St. 73  

 

 

Florida vs. Michigan

Someone must be looking down from above on Gator coach Billy Donovan.  The two teams that Florida would have struggled against, Georgetown and Kansas, were eliminated before Florida was forced to play them.  The Gators faced a Minnesota team that lacked the quickness and outside shooting ability to challenge them.  They got the weakest team in the Sweet 16 instead of the Hoyas or even San DiegoState.  Now, they face a Michigan team that cannot defend well enough to stop the Gator’s halfcourt attack, while Kansas could have shut them down.

Florida will reach another Final Four because they have superior PiRate Criteria numbers across the board.  The Gators enjoy a field goal margin advantage of 3.8%, a rebounding margin advantage of 1.7 per game, a turnover margin advantage of 0.2 (basically a wash but UF has the edge), a steals advantage of 1.1, which gives the Gators an R+T advantage of more than two additional scoring chances.  Add a slightly more difficult strength of schedule, and an infinitesimal advantage in winning percentage away from home, and the Gators have too much going in their favor.  Michigan’s only chance is to bomb away from three-point land, but Florida is one of the toughest teams against the three-pointer.

 

PiRate Pick: Florida 79  Michigan 67

 

 

Louisville vs. Duke

In the Sweet 16, we had a rematch of the 1987 National Championship Game.  Now, we get a rematch of the 1986 National Championship Game.  Syracuse avenged their last-second loss to Indiana and won their Sweet 16 game over the Hoosiers.  Does that mean, we are going with Duke to avenge their title loss?  Not on your life.  Louisville remains our choice to cut down the nets in Atlanta, and our PiRate criteria shows the Cardinals to be a solid but not spectacular pick in this game.

Duke owns two advantages over Rick Pitino’s squad.  The Blue Devils have a slightly better field goal percentage margin and a decent strength of schedule edge.  Louisville owns the rest of the criteria advantages—by 4.7 on the boards, by 2.8 in turnover margin, by 4.4 in steals, by almost nine more scoring chances in R+T, and by 7% in winning percentage away from home.

 

PiRate Pick: Louisville 77  Duke 70

 

Check back Thursday, April 4 for our Final 4 Preview

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