The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 23, 2013

Bracketnomics 2013: NCAA Tournament: Sunday, March 24, Third Round

2013 NCAA Tournament— Round Three Schedule For Sunday, March 24, 2013

All times Eastern Daylight

Time

Network

Higher Seed

Lower Seed

Region

12:15 PM

CBS

2 Ohio St. (27-7)

10 Iowa St. (23-11)

West

2:45 PM

CBS

1 Indiana (28-6)

9 Temple (24-9)

East

5:15 PM

CBS

1 Kansas (30-5)

8-North Carolina (25-10)

South

6:10 PM

TNT

3 Florida (27-7)

11 Minnesota (21-12)

South

7:10 PM

TBS

7 San Diego St. (23-10)

15 Florida Gulf Coast (25-10)

South

7:40 PM

TruTV

12 Ole Miss (27-8)

13 La Salle (23-9)

West

8:40 PM

TNT

2 Miami (Fla)  (28-6)

7 Illinois (23-12)

East

9:40 PM

TBS

2 Duke (28-5)

7 Creighton (28-7)

Midwest

 

Stats of the 16 Teams Playing Today

Team

PPG

Opp

Diff

FG%

D FG%

Diff

Reb

Opp

Diff

TO

Opp TO

Diff

Stl

R+T

SOS

RW-L

Ohio St.

69.2

57.9

11.3

.454

.395

5.9

35.5

31.8

3.7

10.6

13.2

2.6

6.8

8.18

58.31

66.7

Iowa St.

79.6

71.2

8.4

.455

.427

2.8

38.7

34.0

4.7

13.3

13.2

-0.1

6.5

5.88

56.13

37.5

Indiana

80.0

62.5

17.5

.486

.390

9.6

38.6

30.9

7.7

13.0

14.4

1.4

7.5

10.88

58.69

71.4

Temple

72.8

68.1

4.7

.430

.434

-0.4

34.5

35.8

-1.3

11.0

13.7

2.7

8.0

3.54

55.35

60.0

Kansas

75.4

61.5

13.9

.480

.360

12.0

39.1

32.5

6.6

13.7

12.9

-0.8

7.2

7.08

57.80

75.0

North Carolina

77.2

69.1

8.1

.444

.422

2.2

38.9

36.5

2.4

12.2

15.3

3.1

8.2

7.76

58.63

55.6

Florida

71.6

53.7

17.9

.481

.377

10.4

35.1

30.3

4.8

11.1

14.0

2.9

7.0

9.68

57.28

61.1

Minnesota

68.4

61.7

6.7

.442

.396

4.6

38.8

30.6

8.2

13.8

12.8

-1.0

7.6

8.52

59.67

33.3

San Diego St.

69.2

60.7

8.5

.438

.388

5.0

36.8

33.4

3.4

11.9

12.7

0.8

6.9

5.74

57.98

47.1

Florida Gulf Coast

73.1

66.7

6.4

.460

.406

5.4

36.6

35.4

1.2

14.7

15.9

1.2

9.0

4.44

47.87

50.0

Ole Miss

77.9

67.3

10.6

.438

.410

2.8

38.7

37.7

1.0

11.4

15.6

4.2

8.4

7.72

51.73

58.8

La Salle

72.4

66.0

6.4

.448

.456

-0.8

31.7

34.7

-3.0

11.7

14.9

3.2

8.1

2.46

54.70

53.3

Miami

69.9

60.7

9.2

.460

.399

6.1

35.8

32.5

3.3

10.9

11.9

1.0

6.3

5.76

59.20

72.2

Illinois

69.1

65.3

3.8

.416

.427

-1.1

33.5

34.9

-1.4

11.5

14.4

2.9

6.9

3.46

58.79

55.6

Duke

78.3

65.4

12.9

.476

.418

5.8

33.8

35.0

-1.2

10.7

14.4

3.7

6.5

4.54

60.79

68.8

Creighton

75.4

63.1

12.3

.508

.407

10.1

35.2

30.3

4.9

12.3

10.6

-1.7

5.0

3.86

54.46

70.6

Friday’s Record: 10-6

Tournament Total: 22-10

 

Game Previews

Ohio State vs. Iowa State

We told you before the tournament that IowaState would beat Notre Dame, because the Irish failed to qualify in at least one of our PiRate Rating Criteria categories.  Can the Cyclones advance to the Sweet 16 with another upset of a bigtime Midwest opponent?

 

In two words, “probably not.”  OhioState holds decisive advantages in too many of our criteria categories, while IowaState enjoys one small advantage over the Buckeyes.  OhioState has a better field goal percentage margin by 3.1%.  The Cyclones enjoy a minor rebounding margin advantage over the Buckeyes by one, but OhioState counters that with a turnover margin advantage of 2.7.  The R+T advantage for the Buckeyes is 2.3.

 

Additionally, OhioState gained these statistical advantages by playing a schedule that was on average more than two points per game better than IowaState.  To top it off, the Buckeyes are clearly the better team away from home.  Not that it matters all that much in our ratings, but the boys from Columbus now own a nine-game winning streak and appear to be playing their best ball of the season

 

PiRate Pick: Ohio State 73  Iowa State 60

 

Indiana vs. Temple

Indiana looked like a Final Four team Friday, when the Hoosiers put James Madison away quickly.  Temple had a challenge from North CarolinaState, but the Owls made it a perfect first two rounds for the Atlantic 10 Conference.

 

Indiana is poised to make it an easy first two games, as this one looks like a major mismatch.  The Hoosiers’ field goal margin advantage in this game is a huge 10%.  This discrepancy can only be overcome if the other team enjoys one equally huge R+T rating advantage, but Indiana is the team that enjoys this advantage.  Because IU has the rebounding margin edge by 9.0, and Temple’s turnover margin advantage is just 1.3, the R+T advantage for the Hoosiers is 7.34.  So, Indiana figures to shoot about 10% better than the Owls and get more than seven extra opportunities to score.

 

Add a strength of schedule advantage of more than three points per game and a road winning percentage advantage of more than 10, and this looks like it could be boring after the first two TV timeouts.

 

PiRate Pick: Indiana 81  Iowa State 60

 

Kansas vs. North Carolina

This game is being used as an example that the NCAA Selection Committee purposely tries to arrange these games, but the public needs to realize that once seeded, you could select any number of possible schedules with no human contribution other than putting the mathematical equations into a computer, and no matter how the schedule was chosen, there would be games like this.  What if Indiana and Marquette faced off, and Tom Crean played his old team?  How about Florida and Louisville being placed in the same region and meeting in the Elite 8?  That would pit Billy Donovan against his college coach Rick Pitino.  The possibilities are endless, and dozens of games like this one could occur if this one did not.

 

As for the game, KU enjoys an advantage similar to Indiana.  The Jayhawks’ field goal margin difference in this game is 9.8%.  The Tar Heels have a slight R+T rating advantage, but it is not enough to counter the large discrepancy in field goal percentage margin.  UNC’s SOS is less than one point per game tougher than Kansas, while KU has a large road winning percentage advantage.  Of course, this is almost a home game for the Jayhawks, as they are less than 45 minutes away from campus.

 

PiRate Pick: Kansas 74  North Carolina 65

 

Florida vs. Minnesota

Here is another one of those games where the coaches share something in common.  Tubby Smith and Billy Donovan were both on the staff at Kentucky under Rick Pitino, and of course, they were tough rivals when Smith was the coach at Kentucky.

 

This game should be closer than most people expect it to be.  On paper, Florida should blow the Gophers out of the gym, but the criteria scores indicate that Minny should keep this one close, if not for the entire game, at least most of the game.

 

Florida has a better field goal percentage margin, by 5.8%.  This is considerable but not infallible.  Minnesota enjoys the rebound margin advantage by 3.4.  The Gators’ return the favor in turnover margin advantage by 3.9, which gives Florida an R+T advantage of 1.16.  The Gophers have the better SOS at 2.39 points per game, while UF has a much better road winning percentage.

 

PiRate Pick: Florida 64  Minnesota 57

 

 

San Diego State vs. Florida Gulf Coast

Georgetown is quickly becoming the DePaul of the 21st Century.  In the early 1980’s, DePaul stayed at the top of the polls and was always a one or two seed, but the Blue Demons always suffered an upset early in the tournament, usually in the first round.

 

FloridaGulfCoast has now defeated two different number two seeds this year, as they topped Miami in November.

 

This San DiegoState team is not nearly as talented as last year’s version, but the Aztecs are favored to advance to the Sweet 16.  Does our criteria see it that way too?  No, it does not.  We believe this game will be rather close, and FGCU will have a chance to pull off another upset if they can force SDSU into a few more turnovers than average.

 

If Coach Steve Fisher’s squad can keep from making too many mistakes, the Aztecs will advance to the next round, because SDSU has decisive advantages in rebounding and SOS, while the rest of the criteria basically cancels itself out.

 

PiRate Pick: San Diego State 68  Florida Gulf Coast 64

 

Ole Miss vs. La Salle

We can state one prediction where we feel more than comfortable believing in our accuracy.  Not many college basketball fans have neutral feelings about Rebel sharpshooter Marshall Henderson.

 

This game guarantees that at least one double-digit seed will advance to the Sweet 16.  Ole Miss has a considerable but not overwhelming edge in the criteria stats.  The Rebels take the field goal percentage margin stat by 3.6%, and rebounding margin by 4, as La Salle is not strong in that category.  Ole Miss has a turnover margin edge of 1.0, which when combined with the other rebounds and steals, gives the Rebels an R+T advantage of 5.26.  On the other hand, the Explorers have an SOS advantage of 3 points per game, and neither team is an exceptional road team, so this game could be interesting.

 

PiRate Pick: Ole Miss 65  La Salle 61

 

Miami vs. Illinois

Make no mistakes about it:  Jim Larranaga knows how to coach and has taken a mid-major to the Final Four.  What can he do with big-time talent?  This team looks like an Elite 8 representative for sure, and who knows how a Miami-Indiana game might turn out?  Maybe some of us will get a clue for this possible game when the Hurricanes take on a team that beat Indiana in the regular season.

 

“The U” owns a 7.2% field goal margin difference, a rebounding margin advantage of 4.7, and an R+T advantage of 2.3.  Illinois has the advantage in turnover margin at 1.9, but that is not enough to balance the scale.  The SOS’s are roughly equal, and it is obvious that the Hurricanes’ road record is much better than the Illini

 

PiRate Pick: Miami 72  Illinois 59

 

 

Duke vs. Creighton

This is the final game of the third round, but it could be one of the most interesting.  WichitaState showed that the second best team in the Missouri Valley Conference is pretty tough, so Creighton must be even tougher.

 

Duke’s biggest advantage in this game is a Strength of Schedule that is more than six points per game better than Creighton’s.  That discrepancy skews the remainder of the ratings.

 

One stat that is not skewed is Creighton’s field goal percentage.  The Blue Jays are the best shooting team in the Big Dance, one of just two of the 68 teams to make better than half of their shots.  Duke is no slouch in shooting accuracy, but this Blue Devil team is not a toughie to shoot against.  To add to Coach K’s misery, Duke does not dominate on the glass, while Crieghton is a strong rebounding team.

 

Duke’s big advantage in this game is their turnover margin advantage, but since they do not generate a lot of steals, they do not benefit as much from the advantage.  Still, the SOS in this game is astronomical, and it is enough to counter all of Creighton’s advantages, which should make this a tossup game to end the opening weekend.

 

PiRate Pick: Duke 76  Creighton 73

 

Advertisements

1 Comment »

  1. Excellent wayy of explaining, and fastidious piuece of writing too
    takeinformation regarding my presentation subject,
    which i am going too present iin school.

    Comment by maxi dresses — October 17, 2013 @ 4:47 pm


RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Blog at WordPress.com.

%d bloggers like this: