The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 9, 2013

PiRate Ratings NFL Divisional Playoff Round Preview–January 11-12, 2013

The PiRate Simulator raked in the booty in the Wildcard Round finishing with a 7-1 record in its selections.  The Divisional Round offers fewer opportunities to pinch the Las Vegans, so we will be more selective this week.

 

Saturday, January 12, 2013

 

Baltimore Ravens (11-6-0) at Denver Broncos (12-4-0)

Time: 4:30 PM EST

TV: CBS

Sports Authority Field at Mile High Forecast: Partly Cloudy with Temperature falling from upper teens to lower teens

 

PiRate: Denver by 11.5

PiRate Mean: Denver by 10.8

PiRate Bias: Denver by 10.0

PiRate Vintage: Denver by 9.0

 

Vegas Line: Denver by 9

Totals: 46

Money Line:  Denver -450  Baltimore +350

 

100 Computer Simulations: Denver 85  Baltimore 15

Average Score: Denver 27.8  Baltimore 19.3

Standard Deviation: 9.9

Outlier Home: Denver 42  Baltimore 16

Outlier Visitor: Baltimore 31  Denver 16

Outlier High: 61 points

Outlier Low: 31 points

 

PiRate Captain Says: Our computer simulator says that Denver is the overwhelming choice to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but the simulation for this game does not give us a wagering option on its own.  The simulated spread average is 8.5, while the Vegas Line is 9.  The simulated totals average is 47.1 while the Vegas Total is 46.  We believe the simulator showing Peyton Manning and Company to have an 85% chance of winning.  Weather could be a factor.  With temperatures in the teens and dropping, the game could become more defensive than expected.  However, Denver cold is very dry and does not feel as cold as the Northeast.

 

 

Green Bay Packers (12-5-0) at San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)

Time: 8:00 PM EST

TV: Fox

Candlestick Park Forecast: Slight Chance of Rain Showers with Temperature in Mid-40’s

 

PiRate: San Francisco by 3.9

PiRate Mean: San Francisco by 3.4

PiRate Bias: San Francisco by 3.0

PiRate Vintage: San Francisco by 2.5

 

Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3

Totals: 45

Money Line:  San Francisco -150  Green Bay +130

 

100 Computer Simulations: Green Bay 53  San Francisco 47

Average Score: Green Bay 26.1  San Francisco 25.1

Standard Deviation: 9.0

Outlier Home: San Francisco 42  Green Bay 12

Outlier Visitor: Green Bay 34  San Francisco 16

Outlier High: 72 Points

Outlier Low:  27 Points

 

PiRate Captain Says: We were quite surprised with this simulation, as we expected the 49ers to be heavy favorites.  When Green Bay came up with the majority of the wins as well as the winning mean, it tripped a play we rarely ever consider, taking the Money Line underdog.  It is an option if you want to try to make $1.30 on every $1 you invest.  We will not make than an official selection, but we will take the Packers and the points.

 

1. Green Bay +3

2. OVER 45

 

 

Sunday, January 13. 2013

 

Seattle Seahawks (12-5-0) at Atlanta Falcons (13-3-0)

Time: 1:00 PM EST

TV: Fox

Georgia Dome Forecast: Indoors

 

PiRate: Seattle by 5.2

PiRate Mean: Seattle by 3.1

PiRate Bias: Seattle by 1.5

PiRate Vintage: Tossup

 

Vegas Line: Atlanta by 2 ½

Totals: 46

Money Line:  Atlanta -135  Seattle +115

 

100 Computer Simulations:  Seattle 52  Atlanta 48

Average Score: Seattle 21.3  Atlanta 20.0

Standard Deviation: 10.8

Outlier Home: Atlanta 33  Seattle 10

Outlier Visitor: Seattle 37  Atlanta 16 (+2 other 21-point spreads)

Outlier High: 66 Points

Outlier Low:  22 Points

 

PiRate Captain Says: It has been three years since the NFC number one seed advanced to the Super Bowl.  Atlanta earned that honor two seasons ago and fell to Green Bay in this same Divisional Round.  That Green Bay team had an unstoppable offense at the end of the season.  Seattle appears to be the 2010 Green Bay of 2012.  The Seahawks’ offense was slowed against Washington but not stopped.

 

3. Seattle +2 ½

4. UNDER 46

 

 

Houston Texans (13-4-0) at New England Patriots (12-4-0)

Time: 4:30 PM EST

TV: CBS

Gillette Stadium Forecast: Mostly Cloudy with Temperature in Upper 40’s

 

PiRate: New England by 11.5

PiRate Mean: New England by 9.4

PiRate Bias: New England by 8.0

PiRate Vintage: New England by 6.0

 

Vegas Line: New England by 9 ½

Totals: 47 ½

Money Line:  New England -450  Houston +350

 

100 Computer Simulations: New England 82  Houston 18

Average Score: New England 27.0  Houston 20.8

Standard Deviation: 8.3

Outlier Home: New England 42  Houston 13

Outlier Visitor: Houston 28  New England 17

Outlier High: 63 Points

Outlier Low:  30 Points

 

PiRate Captain Says: Like the other AFC playoff game, the simulation averages and the spreads are much too close.  We can only include this game as part of a parlay.

 

5. 10-point Teaser

Denver +1 vs. Baltimore

Seattle +12 ½ vs. Atlanta

New England + ½ vs. Houston

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