The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 7, 2013

PiRate Ratings College Football National Championship Game Preview

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , — piratings @ 5:52 am

Monday, January 7, 2013

 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1)

 

Time: 8:30 PM EST

TV: ESPN

Location: Sun Life Stadium, Miami

Sun Life Stadium Forecast: Partly Cloudy and Humid, with Temperature in low 70’s, 10% Chance of Rain

 

Notre Dame (12-0)

Navy

50

10

 
Purdue

20

17

 
Michigan State

20

3

 
Michigan

13

6

 
Miami (Fla)

41

3

 
Stanford

20

13

 ot
B Y U

17

14

 
Oklahoma

30

13

 
Pittsburgh

29

26

 3 ot
Boston College

21

6

 
Wake Forest

38

0

 
Southern Cal

22

13

 

321

124

Average

26.8

10.3

Alabama (12-1)


Michigan

41

14

Western Kentucky

35

0

Arkansas

52

0

Florida Atlantic

40

7

Ole Miss

33

14

Missouri

42

10

Tennessee

44

13

Mississippi State

38

7

L S U

21

17

Texas A&M

24

29

Western Carolina

49

0

Auburn

49

0

Georgia

32

28

500

139

Average

38.5

10.7

 

 

 

PiRate: Alabama by 7.9

PiRate Vintage: Alabama by 2.0

 

Vegas Line: Alabama by 9 ½

Totals: 40 ½

Money Line:  Alabama -360  Notre Dame +300

 

100 Computer Simulations: Alabama 62  Notre Dame 38 (8 games went to OT)

Average Score: Alabama 19.4  Notre Dame 13.9

Standard Deviation: 8.3

Outlier ND: Notre Dame 22  Alabama 7

Outlier ALA: Alabama 38  Notre Dame 20

Outlier High: 64 points

Outlier Low: 9 points

 

PiRate Captain Says: Lay off this one.  The Standard Deviation on the sides and the totals makes this unplayable for the PiRates.  We would go with Alabama at -360 in the Money Line, but we never play a Money Line at those odds, and there are no games to combine into a parlay.  We would go with Notre Dame +10 ½ if the spread moved there, but we don’t have a play at 9 ½.  You could buy a half-point if you can find the game at +10.  Because the possibility of overtime is above average, we would be hesitant to play the Under.  A 17-17 tie at the end of regulation could become a 30-24 finish.

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