The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 4, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 14: December 6-10, 2012

Playoff Scenarios

 

A F C East

New England has secured the AFC East title and has a chance to earn home field advantage throughout the playoffs if they can run the table, and Houston loses to somebody else besides the Patriots.

 

The other three teams have mathematical chances of sneaking in as wildcards, but to say they are slim is still overstating those chances by a large margin.  Buffalo could rebound to finish 8-8.

 

A F C North

This race became much more interesting with the Steelers upsetting the Ravens in Baltimore.  Now, the Ravens lead is two games and is no longer infallible.  We see the second place teams Cincinnati and Pittsburgh both winning their next two games, and they should both be 9-5-0 when they face off at Heinz Stadium in week 16.  The winner of that game will be playoff bound, while the loser will need help or be out of the picture.

 

The winner of that week 16 game could finish tied with Baltimore, but the Ravens hold the tiebreaker edge over both teams.

 

A F C South

Houston can secure home field advantage for the playoffs if the Texans win at New England and don’t crumble afterwards.  We see the Texans losing this week and possibly in week 17 at Indianapolis.

 

Speaking of the Colts, Andrew Luck and company are in excellent shape in the wildcard race, and with games remaining with Tennessee and Kansas City, we see this team winning at least 10 games.  They must face Houston twice in the final three weeks, but we believe they will split those games to lock up a wildcard spot.  If they could somehow sweep the Texans, Indy could still emerge as division champs.

 

A F C West

Denver essentially took over command in this division when they came from behind to beat San Diego.  The Chargers collapsed, and the Broncos have run away with the division.  We are a bit concerned about their game at Oakland, because the Raiders always have their A-game against the Broncos.  If they can top the Raiders, the Broncos can run the table and possibly squeeze into the number two spot or even the top spot in the conference.

 

N F C East

Hail to the Redskins!  Washington has bested its two key division rivals in back-to-back games, and now RGIII and his Capital Punishers look to grab a division title.  We think the Redskins and Giants will finished tied for the division lead at 9-7, and if that is so, Washington will win the tiebreaker based on better division record.

 

The Giants can never be counted out, but they are not hitting on all cylinders.  With Atlanta and Baltimore still on the schedule, Eli Manning may not be able to win three more games to clinch a playoff bid.

 

Dallas looks like a stereotypical 8-8 team.  Only if the Giants and Redskins totally collapse will the Cowboys sneak into the playoffs.

 

N F C North

This division has begun to fade rather than improve as the northern chill takes over in the old Black and Blue Division.  Green Bay and Chicago will decide who is the division champ and who is the wildcard when they face off at Lambeau Field in two weeks.

 

Minnesota still has a remote chance to be a wildcard, but at 6-6, the Vikings must win out.  Their final four games include tough road games against Houston and St. Louis, as well as home games against the Bears and Packers.  It’s not happening this year.

 

N F C South

Atlanta almost has home field advantage wrapped up to the Super Bowl.  The Falcons own a 2 ½ game lead over San Francisco and could secure the number one seed in two weeks.  That would leave Atlanta with two meaningless games, but that week 17 game could be very important.

 

The Falcons’ week 17 game comes against Tampa Bay, and the Buccaneers are fighting for a wildcard spot.  The Bucs have a shot at entering that game at 9-6, and then that finale becomes very important.  Tampa Bay almost has to be 10-6 to make it as a wildcard.

 

N F C West

San Francisco may be the best team in the NFC, but the St. Louis Rams believe otherwise.  At 8-3-1, the 49ers are almost a lock to win the division, but they cannot be considered an overwhelming favorite to advance to the Super Bowl.

 

Seattle proved they can win on the road with a key victory in Soldier Field over the Bears.  The Seahawks have three remaining home games and a road game against Buffalo.  The opportunity is there for Pete Carroll’s team to run the table and possibly steal the division title away from San Francisco, but we believe the Seahawks will lose at least one time and have to settle for the wildcard.

 

PiRate Playoff Projection

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Houston

3. Denver

4. Baltimore

5. Pittsburgh

6. Indianapolis

 

N F C

1. Atlanta

2. San Francisco

3. Green Bay

4. Washington

5. Seattle

6. Chicago

 

Wildcard Round

Indianapolis at Denver

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

Chicago at Green Bay

Seattle at Washington

 

Divisional Round

Pittsburgh at New England

Denver at Houston

Seattle at Atlanta

Green Bay at San Francisco

 

Conference Championship

Denver at New England

San Francisco at Atlanta

 

Super Bowl

New England vs. Atlanta

 

New England wins Super Bowl

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 105.9 104.7 104.1 103.5 3
Washington Redskins 100.5 101.1 101.4 102.0 2
Dallas Cowboys 98.8 99.3 99.5 100.0 1.5
Philadelphia Eagles 93.6 92.5 92.0 91.5 3.5
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Chicago Bears 106.2 104.6 103.7 103.0 2.5
Green Bay Packers 105.4 103.9 101.8 102.5 2.5
Detroit Lions 98.5 97.5 98.5 96.5 2.5
Minnesota Vikings 96.7 97.7 98.1 99.0 3.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 105.6 106.8 106.6 108.5 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 102.2 101.5 99.7 101.0 2.5
New Orleans Saints 101.5 100.9 100.8 100.5 2.5
Carolina Panthers 94.5 94.2 96.2 94.0 1.5
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 108.3 107.1 104.2 106.0 2.5
Seattle Seahawks 104.4 104.3 104.3 104.5 5
St. Louis Rams 97.8 98.5 98.8 99.5 3.5
Arizona Cardinals 96.6 94.6 95.9 92.5 2
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 111.2 109.4 106.0 107.5 1.5
Miami Dolphins 98.9 98.8 98.6 99.0 1.5
New York Jets 97.9 96.9 96.2 96.0 2
Buffalo Bills 96.7 97.7 101.0 99.0 3.5
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Baltimore Ravens 103.6 104.4 104.8 105.5 4.5
Cincinnati Bengals 102.6 103.1 103.2 104.0 3
Pittsburgh Steelers 101.7 103.1 102.6 105.0 4
Cleveland Browns 95.6 96.1 97.8 97.0 2
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 107.8 108.3 108.5 109.0 3
Indianapolis Colts 95.6 99.4 101.3 104.0 4.5
Tennessee Titans 93.5 93.9 94.0 94.5 2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 91.2 91.7 91.9 92.5 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 108.3 108.1 105.9 108.0 3
San Diego Chargers 98.0 97.4 99.2 97.0 2.5
Kansas City Chiefs 90.8 91.0 91.1 91.5 2.5
Oakland Raiders 90.0 91.5 92.3 93.5 3.5

 

Here are this week’s PiRate spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
Denver OAKLAND 14.8 13.1 10.1 11.0 10 1/2 49 1/2
Baltimore WASHINGTON 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 -2 1/2 47   
CLEVELAND Kansas City 6.8 7.1 8.7 7.5 5 1/2 37 1/2
PITTSBURGH
San Diego
7.7 9.7 7.4 12.0 NL NL
INDIANAPOLIS Tennessee 6.6 10.0 11.8 14.0 5 1/2 48   
New York Jets JACKSONVILLE 6.2 4.7 3.8 3.0 2 1/2 38 1/2
Chicago MINNESOTA 6.0 3.4 2.1 0.5 3    39 1/2
Atlanta CAROLINA 9.6 11.1 8.9 13.0 3 1/2 47 1/2
TAMPA BAY Philadelphia 11.1 11.5 10.2 12.0 7    47   
BUFFALO St. Louis 2.4 2.7 5.7 3.0 3    42   
CINCINNATI Dallas 6.8 6.8 6.7 7.0 3    45 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO Miami 11.9 10.8 8.1 9.5 10    39   
NEW YORK GIANTS
New Orleans
7.4 6.8 6.3 6.0 5    53 1/2
SEATTLE
Arizona
12.8 14.7 13.4 17.0 10 1/2 34 1/2
GREEN BAY Detroit 9.4 8.9 5.8 8.5 6 1/2 52   
NEW ENGLAND Houston 4.9 2.6 -1.0 0.0 3 1/2 51 1/2

 

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