The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 27, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 13: November 29-December 3, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:24 pm

Big Clearing In Playoff Picture

More teams played themselves out of the playoff picture this past week than played themselves into the playoff picture.  In the NFC, we can now count out Dallas, New Orleans, and Detroit, and we can begin the count on Minnesota.  In the AFC, we can now call the KO on the Jets, Buffalo, San Diego, and Tennessee.

 

Cincinnati and Miami made forward moves in the AFC, while Washington placed themselves in position to be in position if they can pull off the big win this week against the Giants.

 

Here is how we project the race to end along with a look at how we think the playoffs will go.

 

A F C

1. New England 13-3-0 (Pats can run the table even without Gronk)

2. Houston 13-3-0 (Lose at Foxboro and then to Indy in meaningless week 17 game)

3. Denver 12-4-0 (Broncos could run table, but we think they will slip at Oakland)

4. Baltimore 12-4-0 (Sweeps Pittsburgh, but falls to Denver to end #4)

5. Indianapolis 10-6-0 (Finishes 5th based on better AFC record)

6. Pittsburgh 10-6-0 (Week 16 game with Cincinnati decides this spot)

 

N F C

1. Atlanta 14-2-0 (1 ½ game lead over 49ers too much to fall from #1)

2. San Francisco 11-4-1 (Tough road games at Pats and Seahawks keep 49ers here)

3. Chicago 11-5-0 (Cutler has to stay healthy or Bears fall lower)

4. New York Giants 9-7-0 (Giants won it all from this spot last year)

5. Green Bay 10-6-0 (Injuries and age make this spot a bit precarious)

6. Seattle 9-7-0 (Seahawks edge Tampa Bay based on better NFC record)

 

Playoff Scenario

Wildcard Round

Pittsburgh at Denver (Peyton exploits ailing Steeler defense)

Indianapolis at Baltimore (Ravens win by double digits)

Seattle at Chicago (If Cutler plays entire game, Bears win by about 6)

Green Bay at New York Giants (Giants win by less than 28 this time)

 

Divisional Round

Baltimore at New England (Old-fashioned dogfight in inclement weather—Bal wins)

Denver at Houston (Peyton leads Broncos to AFC Championship Game)

New York Giants at Atlanta (Giants repeat chances stay alive in upset)

Chicago at San Francisco (49ers win in a shootout even against healthy Cutler)

 

Conference Championships

New York Giants at San Francisco (49ers get their revenge in a blowout)

Baltimore at Denver (Peyton comes through again and sends Broncos to Super Bowl)

 

Super Bowl

San Francisco vs. Denver (First overtime game in Super Bowl history goes to 49ers)

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 106.4 105.3 104.7 104.0 3
Washington Redskins 100.0 100.2 100.4 100.5 2
Dallas Cowboys 98.8 98.9 99.0 99.0 2
Philadelphia Eagles 93.6 91.9 91.1 90.0 3.5
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Chicago Bears 107.0 105.6 104.7 104.0 3.5
Green Bay Packers 105.7 104.0 102.0 102.0 3
Detroit Lions 99.9 99.3 100.4 98.5 3
Minnesota Vikings 96.4 97.9 98.6 99.5 3.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 105.3 106.3 106.2 107.5 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 102.2 101.9 100.4 101.5 3
New Orleans Saints 102.0 101.5 101.4 101.0 2.5
Carolina Panthers 95.4 95.5 97.5 95.5 1
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 110.2 108.5 104.9 106.5 1.5
Seattle Seahawks 103.1 102.6 102.3 102.0 5
Arizona Cardinals 96.4 94.4 96.1 92.0 2.5
St. Louis Rams 95.6 96.5 96.9 97.5 3.5
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 111.6 109.9 106.5 108.0 1.5
Miami Dolphins 98.5 98.7 98.8 99.0 1.5
New York Jets 98.1 96.7 95.5 95.0 3.5
Buffalo Bills 95.6 96.5 100.1 97.5 3
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Baltimore Ravens 104.6 105.5 105.9 106.5 3.5
Cincinnati Bengals 102.0 102.7 102.8 103.5 3
Pittsburgh Steelers 100.7 101.6 100.9 102.5 3.5
Cleveland Browns 95.3 95.9 97.5 96.5 2
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 107.6 108.3 108.6 109.0 3
Indianapolis Colts 94.3 98.1 100.0 102.5 4.5
Tennessee Titans 94.0 95.4 96.1 97.0 2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 92.0 92.7 93.1 93.5 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 108.3 107.9 105.9 107.5 3
San Diego Chargers 98.9 98.3 99.8 97.5 3
Oakland Raiders 90.3 91.8 92.5 93.5 4
Kansas City Chiefs 90.2 89.9 89.7 89.5 2

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
ATLANTA New Orleans 5.3 6.8 6.8 8.5 3 1/2 56   
CHICAGO Seattle 7.4 6.5 5.9 5.5 4    38   
GREEN BAY Minnesota 12.3 9.1 6.4 5.5 9    46 1/2
San Francisco
ST. LOUIS
11.1 8.5 4.5 5.5 7    40   
N. Y. JETS Arizona 5.2 5.8 2.9 6.5 4 1/2 36 1/2
Carolina KANSAS CITY 3.2 3.6 5.8 4.0 3    40 1/2
DETROIT Indianapolis 8.6 4.2 3.4 -1.0 4 1/2 51   
BUFFALO Jacksonville 6.6 6.8 10.0 7.0 6    45   
New England MIAMI 11.6 9.7 6.2 7.5 7 1/2 51   
Houston TENNESSEE 11.1 10.4 10.0 9.5 5 1/2 47   
DENVER Tampa Bay 9.1 9.0 8.5 9.0 7    50 1/2
BALTIMORE Pittsburgh 7.4 7.4 8.5 7.5 NL NL
Cleveland
OAKLAND
1.0 0.1 1.0 -1.0 -1 1/2 45   
Cincinnati
SAN DIEGO
0.1 1.4 0.0 3.0 1 1/2 46   
DALLAS Philadelphia 7.2 9.0 9.9 11.0 9    43   
N. Y. Giants WASHINGTON 4.4 3.1 2.3 1.5 2 1/2 51   

 

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