The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 20, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 12: November 22-26, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:18 pm

Interesting Races In Six Divisions

With six games to go for everybody, six of the eight divisions still have interesting races, be it for a divisional championship or wildcard contention.

AFC East

This is one of the two divisions that does not have an interesting race.  New England has a three-game lead over its other three rivals, and even with the loss of Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots will coast to an easy division title.

Buffalo is the only team of the back three that we see has a chance to get hot and go on a run to finish 9-7-0.  Even at 9-7-0, there is a good chance they would miss out on the playoffs.  This week’s game at Indianapolis may be the most important game left on their schedule.

AFC North

Baltimore now has a two-game lead over Pittsburgh, and it looks like the Ravens will keep that lead.  Pittsburgh needs Ben Roethlisberger to come back sooner rather than later, because Cincinnati could easily finish on a hot streak and nip them for second.  For now, we project Pittsburgh to edge out the Bengals and take one of the two wildcard spots.

AFC South

Houston is cruising to a division title, but the surprising Indianapolis Colts are in the thick of the wildcard race.  If the Colts continue to hold serve at home and pick up one road win from among Detroit, Houston, and Kansas City, they will take the second wildcard berth.  The schedule looks very favorable, because their three remaining home games are very winnable (especially if Houston does not need to win secure home field advantage in week 17.

AFC West

This is the other division with little excitement.  Peyton Manning proved he still has what it takes to win, and the Broncos are running away with the division title.  San Diego is underachieving for more than likely the last year under Norv Turner.

NFC East

The mediocrity division could possibly be won by an 8-8-0 team this year and should be won by a 9-7-0 team.  The New York Giants swooned in the middle of their schedule last year, losing four in a row by an average of 13 points per game.  They recovered to finish 9-7-0 but were outscored for the season before getting hot in the playoffs.

Dallas could easily be tied with the Giants by Sunday night, but don’t count out Washington yet.  If the Redskins win on Thanksgiving Day, and the Giants lose to Green Bay, RGIII and company will be one game out of first, and the Giants still have to visit Fedex Field.

NFC North

The old black and blue division is perhaps the most interesting race in the NFL.  With Jay Cutler sidelined the last six quarters, Chicago has become the Cookie Monsters of the Midway.  One Cutler comes back, the Bears should rebound, but Lovie Smith has to find a better way to provide Cutler protection.

Green Bay is not the power they were the last two seasons, but the Packers have enough horses remaining to get to 11-5 and guarantee themselves a playoff spot.

Minnesota is one of those teams that can be on and look like the Vikings of old or off and look like the Vikings of the last two years.  The Purple and White’s schedule is too difficult to get to 10-6.

NFC South

Atlanta built up too much of a lead to lose it, but New Orleans may be the better team at the present time.  Then, there’s Tampa Bay.  All three teams have enough talent and play well enough together to make a deep playoff run.

We believe the Buccaneers and Saints could finish in a tie for second, but one game shy of making it to the postseason.

NFC West

San Francisco’s situation is somewhat like Minnesota’s.  The 49ers can look like the 1985 Bears one week and the 2009 49er team the next.  However, using interpolation, if they continue this 50-50 trait, they will finish 11-4-1, 10-5-1 at the least.

Seattle is the big intangible in the entire league.  The Seahawks are tough at home and decent on the road.  They could easily go 3-0 at home from here on, and they could win two of their three road games (Miami, Chicago, Buffalo).  We believe Pete Carroll will be back in the playoffs this year.  If the Seahawks can win out and nip San Francisco for the division title, nobody will want to visit Centurylink Field in January.

PiRate Projections

NFC East Projection
New York Giants 9-7-0
Dallas Cowboys 7-9-0
Philadelphia Eagles 5-11-0
Washington Redskins 7-9-0
   
NFC North  
Green Bay Packers 11-5-0
Chicago Bears 11-5-0
Minnesota Vikings 9-7-0
Detroit Lions 7-9-0
   
NFC South  
Atlanta Falcons 13-3-0
New Orleans Saints 9-7-0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7-0
Carolina Panthers 4-12-0
   
NFC West  
San Francisco 49ers 10-5-1
Seattle Seahawks 10-6-0
St. Louis Rams 4-11-1
Arizona Cardinals 4-12-0
   
AFC East  
Buffalo Bills 8-8-0
Miami Dolphins 6-10-0
New England Patriots 12-4-0
New York Jets 7-9-0
   
AFC North  
Baltimore Ravens 13-3-0
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5-0
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7-0
Cleveland Browns 3-13-0
   
AFC South  
Houston Texans 14-2-0
Indianapolis Colts 10-6-0
Tennessee Titans 6-10-0
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-14-0
   
AFC West  
Denver Broncos 12-4-0
San Diego Chargers 6-10-0
Oakland Raiders 6-10-0
Kansas City Chiefs 1-15-0

 

Projected Playoff Seeds

A F C

1. Houston

2. Baltimore

3. New England

4. Denver

5. Pittsburgh

6. Indianapolis

 

N F C

1. Atlanta

2. Green Bay

3. San Francisco

4. New York Giants

5. Chicago

6. Seattle

 

Wildcard Round

Indianapolis at New England

Pittsburgh at Denver

Seattle at San Francisco

Chicago at New York Giants

 

Division Round

Lower Seeded Winner at Houston

Higher Seeded Winner at Baltimore

Lower Seeded Winner at Atlanta

Higher Seeded Winner at Green Bay

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 104.8 103.9 103.4 103.0 2.5
Dallas Cowboys 99.5 100.1 100.4 101.0 2.5
Washington Redskins 99.3 99.3 99.3 99.5 2.5
Philadelphia Eagles 94.6 92.8 92.0 91.0 2.5
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Green Bay Packers 107.3 106.6 104.7 106.0 2.5
Chicago Bears 106.6 103.9 102.7 101.0 2
Detroit Lions 99.6 99.5 100.8 99.5 2.5
Minnesota Vikings 96.8 99.4 100.6 102.5 3.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 105.1 106.6 106.8 108.5 2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 102.4 102.4 100.7 102.5 2.5
New Orleans Saints 102.3 103.5 104.1 105.0 3
Carolina Panthers 94.4 94.6 96.8 95.0 1.5
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 109.9 108.2 105.0 106.5 2.5
Seattle Seahawks 103.5 103.4 103.4 103.5 4.5
Arizona Cardinals 97.6 95.8 97.4 94.0 3
St. Louis Rams 94.4 95.8 96.4 97.5 3.5
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 110.4 108.3 104.8 106.0 2
New York Jets 99.3 98.1 96.9 97.0 3
Miami Dolphins 98.1 97.7 97.8 97.5 1
Buffalo Bills 96.1 96.9 100.1 98.0 3
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Baltimore Ravens 104.8 105.0 105.2 105.5 4
Pittsburgh Steelers 101.4 101.8 100.7 102.5 3
Cincinnati Bengals 101.4 101.8 102.0 102.5 4
Cleveland Browns 94.6 94.7 96.1 95.0 2
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 107.9 108.1 108.2 108.5 2.5
Tennessee Titans 94.5 96.3 97.1 98.5 2.5
Indianapolis Colts 93.8 97.1 98.7 101.0 4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 91.5 91.9 92.1 92.5 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 109.0 108.0 105.4 107.0 3
San Diego Chargers 98.7 97.8 99.5 97.0 3
Oakland Raiders 90.9 91.8 92.2 93.0 4
Kansas City Chiefs 89.5 88.9 88.7 88.5 2

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
Houston DETROIT 5.8 6.1 4.9 6.5 3    50 1/2
DALLAS Washington 2.7 3.3 3.6 4.0 3    47 1/2
New England N. Y. JETS 8.1 7.2 4.9 6.0 6 1/2 48   
CINCINNATI
Oakland
14.5 14.0 13.8 13.5 8    49   
Pittsburgh CLEVELAND 4.8 5.1 2.6 5.5 Pk NL
INDIANAPOLIS Buffalo 2.2 4.7 3.1 7.5 3    51   
Denver KANSAS CITY 17.5 17.1 14.7 16.5 10 1/2 44   
Tennessee JACKSONVILLE 2.5 3.9 4.5 5.5 3    43 1/2
CHICAGO Minnesota 11.8 6.5 4.1 0.5 Pk NL
Atlanta TAMPA BAY 0.2 1.7 3.6 3.5 1    48 1/2
Seattle MIAMI 4.4 4.7 4.6 5.0 3    37 1/2
Baltimore SAN DIEGO 3.1 4.2 2.7 5.5 Pk 47   
San Francisco
NEW ORLEANS
4.6 1.7 -2.1 -1.5 1 1/2 NL
ARIZONA
St. Louis
6.2 3.0 4.0 -0.5 2 1/2 37 1/2
N. Y. GIANTS Green Bay 0.0 -0.2 1.2 -0.5 2 1/2 49 1/2
PHILADELPHIA Carolina 2.7 0.7 -2.3 -1.5 2 1/2 NL

 

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