The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 14, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 11: November 15-19, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:48 am

The Playoff Race—Is It Already Decided?

If the playoffs ended today, the 12 teams included would be:

AFC

1. Houston

2. Baltimore

3. Denver

4. New England

5. Pittsburgh

6. Indianapolis

 

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Chicago

3. San Francisco

4. New York Giants

5. Green Bay

6. Seattle

 

According to our ratings, these 12 teams project to remain the dozen that will make the playoffs.  We have very little change in our projections.

 

In the AFC, we believe the four division winners are already locked up.  Additionally, Pittsburgh should hang onto the top wildcard spot, even with the temporary quarterback issues.

 

We project the Colts to go 3-4 the rest of the way, while Cincinnati has an easy finishing schedule.  We see the Bengals closing 5-2.  Indianapolis has a 2 1/2 –game conference lead over Cincinnati, and if the Bengals and Colts finished tied at 9-7-0, Indy would own the tiebreaker in almost every scenario.

 

In the NFC, we are high on Seattle and believe the Seahawks have the most favorable schedule in the league.  It would not surprise us at all if Coach Pete Carroll’s team wins six of its final seven games and overtakes San Francisco by a half game.  We believe the two wildcard teams will have five losses apiece, so in order for a Minnesota at 6-4-0 or Tampa Bay at 5-4-0 to make the playoffs, they would have to lose no more than one more game.

 

Here is how we project the playoffs as of November 14, 2012:

 

A F C

1. Houston 15-1-0

2. Baltimore 13-3-0

3. New England 12-4-0

4. Denver 12-4-0

5. Pittsburgh 12-4-0

6. Indianapolis 9-7-0

 

N F C

1. Atlanta 15-1-0

2. Chicago 12-4-0

3. Seattle 11-5-0

4. New York Giants 9-7-0

5. Green Bay 11-5-0

6. San Francisco 10-5-1

 

Playoff Projections

Wildcard Round

New England over Indianapolis

Denver over Pittsburgh

Seattle over San Francisco

Green Bay over New York Giants

 

Divisional Round

Denver over Houston

Baltimore over New England

Atlanta over Green Bay

Seattle over Chicago

 

Conference Championships

Baltimore over Denver

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Super Bowl

Baltimore over Atlanta

 

Current PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 104.8 103.7 102.9 102.1 2.5
Dallas Cowboys 100.3 99.6 99.1 98.6 2.5
Philadelphia Eagles 97.2 97.3 97.1 97.1 2.5
Washington Redskins 96.7 96.8 96.6 96.6 2
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Chicago Bears 108.5 107.5 106.6 106.1 2
Green Bay Packers 107.2 106.4 104.3 105.2 2.5
Detroit Lions 99.7 100.0 101.7 100.1 2.5
Minnesota Vikings 96.8 99.6 100.8 102.6 3.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 105.4 106.5 106.0 107.6 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 102.8 102.4 100.2 101.6 2.5
New Orleans Saints 100.7 102.0 102.9 103.2 3
Carolina Panthers 94.0 94.4 96.7 94.6 1.5
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 108.0 106.5 103.5 104.6 2
Seattle Seahawks 103.5 103.4 103.2 103.1 4.5
Arizona Cardinals 97.3 95.7 96.9 93.6 3
St. Louis Rams 96.5 97.8 98.3 99.1 4.5
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 108.8 106.3 102.8 103.1 1.5
Miami Dolphins 98.7 98.5 98.0 98.1 1
New York Jets 97.2 95.9 94.7 94.1 3
Buffalo Bills 95.5 96.6 99.6 97.6 3
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Baltimore Ravens 104.1 104.9 105.1 105.6 4.5
Pittsburgh Steelers 102.1 102.7 101.1 103.1 3
Cincinnati Bengals 99.7 100.5 101.2 101.1 4
Cleveland Browns 93.8 94.1 95.2 94.1 2
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 110.1 109.6 109.1 108.7 3
Indianapolis Colts 95.4 98.6 100.0 102.1 4
Tennessee Titans 94.5 96.5 97.3 98.6 2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 89.3 90.3 90.6 91.1 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 109.4 108.4 105.6 107.1 3
San Diego Chargers 98.3 97.9 99.7 97.1 3
Oakland Raiders 92.5 93.1 93.3 93.6 4.5
Kansas City Chiefs 91.2 90.3 89.7 89.1 2

 

Note: HFA is not merely home field advantage.  It is a combination of home field advantage plus the next opponents’ visiting team disadvantage.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
Miami BUFFALO 0.2 -1.1 -4.6 -2.5 -1 1/2 45 1/2
WASHINGTON Philadelphia 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 3 1/2 43 1/2
Green Bay DETROIT 5.0 3.9 0.1 2.6 3 1/2 51 1/2
ATLANTA Arizona 11.1 13.8 12.1 17.0 10    44   
Tampa Bay CAROLINA 7.3 6.5 2.0 5.5 1 1/2 48 1/2
DALLAS Cleveland 9.0 8.0 6.4 7.0 7 1/2 43 1/2
ST. LOUIS New York Jets 3.8 6.4 8.1 9.5 3    38 1/2
NEW ENGLAND Indianapolis 14.9 9.7 4.3 2.5 9    53 1/2
HOUSTON Jacksonville 23.8 22.3 21.5 20.6 15 1/2 40 1/2
Cincinnati KANSAS CITY 6.5 8.2 9.5 10.0 3 1/2 43 1/2
New Orleans OAKLAND 3.7 4.4 5.1 5.1 4 1/2 54 1/2
DENVER San Diego 14.1 13.5 8.9 13.0 7 1/2 48 1/2
PITTSBURGH
Baltimore
1.0 0.8 -1.0 0.5 -3 1/2 41   
SAN FRANCISCO
Chicago
1.5 1.0 -1.1 0.5 5    NL

 

 

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