The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 17, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 7: October 18-22, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:30 pm

What Happens When Everybody Goes 8-8

Okay, that’s a little bit of an exaggeration, but when was the last time only two teams in a conference had winning records after six weeks of the season?  It has not happened in the 32-team version of the NFL—until this year.  Houston and Baltimore are the only two AFC teams with a winning record this week.  With Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and San Diego losing, almost every AFC team is still in contention for a Wildcard berth.  Even Jacksonville, Oakland, and Kansas City still have legitimate hopes.

 

The AFC East is a four-way logjam at 3-3.  3-3 is good enough to qualify for both wildcard spots at the moment.

 

The NFC is not much different.  The NFC South is the only race that appears to be in hand by one team.  Atlanta is 6-0 and has a 3 ½ -game lead over Tampa Bay.  If the playoffs started today, a 4-2 team would be left out on this side.

 

Parity is at the point where a wise player needs to strongly consider searching for value in the underdogs, especially if those teams lost the previous week.  Just when it appeared that the New York Jets were headed to misery, they pull out a performance that looked more like the 1972 and 1973 Miami Dolphins.  Just when it looked as if San Francisco was head and heels above the rest of the league, the New York Giants embarrass them at home.  One week Phillip Rivers looks like the next Tom Brady, and the next week he looks more like Marcia Brady.

 

What makes this parity more believable is that the offensive and defensive lines in the league do not seem to have enough depth to be consistent.  Just an injury or two along the front walls can make a good team bad in one week.  Numerous little injuries can be worth a couple yards per play, and that is enough to turn a winner to a loser.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 107.7 108.0 106.9 106.5 1
Philadelphia Eagles 101.5 101.0 101.6 102.0 4
Dallas Cowboys 98.6 99.3 100.0 101.0 1.5
Washington Redskins 97.8 98.6 100.0 101.5 2
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Chicago Bears 108.8 109.1 106.3 105.5 2.5
Green Bay Packers 106.6 106.2 103.3 104.0 2.5
Detroit Lions 99.1 98.4 100.7 99.0 1.5
Minnesota Vikings 97.3 98.8 100.6 102.5 2.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 104.6 106.2 105.6 107.5 2.5
New Orleans Saints 100.1 98.8 96.2 95.0 2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 97.9 98.7 96.9 97.5 3.5
Carolina Panthers 94.0 94.8 95.5 93.0 3
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 108.3 107.5 104.5 105.5 2.5
Seattle Seahawks 102.2 102.2 103.4 104.5 3.5
Arizona Cardinals 99.2 100.1 101.6 100.0 2.5
St. Louis Rams 98.7 100.8 101.0 102.0 4.5
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 108.3 108.4 103.3 103.0 1.5
Miami Dolphins 99.9 99.6 99.8 100.0 2.5
New York Jets 99.8 99.0 100.4 102.0 3.5
Buffalo Bills 97.4 96.1 100.7 100.0 3.5
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Baltimore Ravens 104.5 105.5 105.5 106.0 3
Pittsburgh Steelers 101.3 100.2 98.4 99.5 2.5
Cincinnati Bengals 98.8 98.3 98.9 98.5 2.5
Cleveland Browns 93.9 93.9 94.5 93.5 2.5
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 107.4 108.2 106.3 105.5 2.5
Tennessee Titans 93.0 92.1 95.4 97.5 4
Indianapolis Colts 91.5 91.9 94.7 97.0 4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 90.0 89.6 90.4 91.0 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 106.4 105.6 102.0 102.0 3
San Diego Chargers 99.3 99.6 101.1 100.0 2
Oakland Raiders 94.2 93.0 94.9 96.0 3.5
Kansas City Chiefs 91.6 90.4 89.4 88.5 3

 

This Week’s Games

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
SAN FRANCISCO Seattle 8.6 7.8 3.6 3.5 7    38   
BUFFALO Tennessee 7.9 7.5 8.8 6.0 3    46 1/2
MINNESOTA Arizona 2.1 2.7 3.0 6.5 6    40   
INDIANAPOLIS Cleveland 2.1 2.5 4.7 8.0 2 1/2 45   
HOUSTON Baltimore 5.4 5.2 3.3 2.0 6 1/2 48 1/2
Green Bay ST. LOUIS 3.4 0.9 -2.2 -2.5 5 1/2 45   
Dallas CAROLINA 1.6 1.5 1.5 5.0 2    45 1/2
N. Y. GIANTS Washington 10.9 10.4 7.9 6.0 5 1/2 50   
TAMPA BAY New Orleans 1.3 3.4 4.2 6.0 -3    49 1/2
NEW ENGLAND N. Y. Jets 10.0 10.9 4.4 2.5 10 1/2 47   
OAKLAND Jacksonville 7.7 6.9 8.0 8.5 4    43 1/2
CINCINNATI Pittsburgh 0.5 1.1 3.5 2.0 -1 1/2 45 1/2
CHICAGO Detroit 12.2 13.2 8.1 9.0 6    47 1/2
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