The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 3, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 5: October 4-8, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:22 pm

Information About Our New PiRate Vintage Rating

We introduced, or rather re-introduced the Vintage Rating this year both for the college and NFL ratings.  These two new/old ratings are not the same and use somewhat different statistical information.  The reason for this is that we have access to a lot more beneficial statistical data with the NFL than with college football.

 

Our original rating that our current Vintage Rating was modeled after used simple offensive and defensive statistics with a little splash of special teams stats thrown in.  For 1980, this was a nice way to look at the NFL.  For instance, in 1980, we looked at yards per play on offense and defense and compared it with the league norms.  We then looked at turnovers and strength of schedule and used trial and error to come up with the best statistical fit for all this data.  We actually weighted those stats five different ways and took the average to come up with a rating.

 

In current times, we have access to much better statistical values.  For instance, we now have adjusted yards per pass attempt, which calculates yards per pass attempt, yards lost from sacks, and yards lost from interceptions, which comes to about 45 if you believe the football equivalent of Sabrematricians.

 

We have access to stats that tell us whether a running back that rushes for 50 yards on 15 carries is better or worse than another running back that rushes for 60 yards on 15 carries.  In the past, the back that rushed for 60 was obviously better.  Today, we know that isn’t always the case.  The back that rushes for 50 yards on 15 carries might get the ball on 3rd and one several times per game, where his coach calls for a quick dive play in the A-gap.  What if the 50-yard back got the ball three times at the opponents’ one yard line?  If he scored three touchdowns in those attempts, this counts for a lot more than the one-yard average from those three attempts.

 

Conversely, what if the 60-yard rusher picked up 15 yards on a draw in a 3rd and 25 situation?  What if he picked up another 15 yards on the last play of the first half, when his team was at its own 20, and the defense was in a dime package prevent? 

 

There are stats now that judge whether each team (and each back) achieved success or failed on each running attempt.  There are multiple sites online that show this type of data.  We use a lot of these factors and calculate the strength of the opponent to determine how good each team’s offense, defense, and special teams are.  We then have a root calculation for each statistical figure, and from this, we come up with a raw rating.  A constant is added to turn this raw root into a point spread.  Finally, we take the mean of the 32 ratings and add or subtract to each team’s rating a constant that brings the league average to 100.0.  All of our PiRate Ratings should average 100.0, so when you see one team rated at 104.6, you know they are 4.6 points better than the average team.

 

The Regular PiRate, PiRate Mean, and PiRate Biased Ratings are completely different from the Vintage Ratings.  There is very little correlation between the original three NFL ratings and this new Vintage.  The PiRate, PiRate Mean, and PiRate Bias use identical data; the only difference is how we weight it.  The regular PiRate weights it how we believe is best in the 2010’s.  The Mean weights everything equally; and the Biased weights it the way we weighted it in the 1990’s.  The Biased Rating was our PiRate Rating from 1985 to 2001.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New York Giants

104.0

102.9

102.7

102.0

1

Philadelphia Eagles

102.0

101.5

103.5

104.5

3.5

Dallas Cowboys

97.9

97.0

98.8

99.5

2.5

Washington Redskins

96.0

96.3

97.7

98.5

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Green Bay Packers

106.4

104.1

102.7

103.5

2.5

Chicago Bears

106.3

106.8

103.7

101.5

3

Detroit Lions

98.4

97.2

99.0

97.0

2

Minnesota Vikings

96.9

100.7

100.2

101.0

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Atlanta Falcons

106.2

107.4

105.7

107.0

2.5

New Orleans Saints

99.3

93.3

95.9

96.5

3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

95.9

95.1

96.3

97.0

3

Carolina Panthers

94.8

93.2

99.1

98.5

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

San Francisco 49ers

108.0

108.4

106.1

106.0

4

Arizona Cardinals

103.5

109.7

107.0

105.5

1

Seattle Seahawks

100.1

102.1

100.3

99.5

2.5

St. Louis Rams

95.8

97.2

98.1

99.0

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New England Patriots

109.3

111.7

104.7

104.0

3

Miami Dolphins

99.1

100.9

98.5

97.5

3

New York Jets

98.5

96.9

97.9

98.0

2

Buffalo Bills

98.1

95.0

100.7

99.5

3.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Baltimore Ravens

105.8

108.9

106.4

105.5

3

Pittsburgh Steelers

103.7

101.0

100.0

101.5

2.5

Cincinnati Bengals

100.6

100.3

101.5

101.0

2.5

Cleveland Browns

93.6

94.6

95.0

93.0

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Houston Texans

110.0

113.7

109.1

107.0

1.5

Tennessee Titans

93.8

90.9

92.0

91.5

3

Jacksonville Jaguars

92.5

93.6

93.7

94.0

2

Indianapolis Colts

90.2

92.0

93.6

95.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Denver Broncos

105.0

107.8

102.7

101.0

2.5

San Diego Chargers

102.1

101.1

102.6

102.0

2.5

Kansas City Chiefs

93.8

88.7

93.3

94.5

2

Oakland Raiders

92.1

90.1

91.5

91.5

2.5

 

 

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
Arizona ST. LOUIS 4.7 9.5 5.9 3.5 1    39 1/2
Atlanta WASHINGTON 7.7 8.6 5.5 6.0 3    50 1/2
PITTSBURGH Philadelphia 4.2 2.0 -1.0 -0.5 3 1/2 43   
Green Bay

 

INDIANAPOLIS 13.7 9.6 6.6 6.0 7    47 1/2
N Y GIANTS Cleveland 11.4 9.3 8.7 10.0 9 1/2 44    
MINNESOTA Tennessee 6.1 12.8 11.2 12.5 5 1/2 44   
CINCINNATI Miami 4.0 1.9 5.5 6.0 3 1/2 45   
Baltimore KANSAS CITY 7.0 18.2 11.1 9.0 6    46 1/2
Seattle CAROLINA 1.3 4.9 -2.8 -3.0 -3    43 1/2
Chicago JACKSONVILLE 11.8 11.2 8.0 5.5 6    40   
NEW ENGLAND Denver 7.3 6.9 5.0 6.0 7    51 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO Buffalo 13.9 17.4 9.4 10.5 10    44 1/2
NEW ORLEANS

 

San Diego 0.2 -4.8 -3.7 -3.5 3 1/2 54   
Houston

 

N Y JETS 9.5 14.8 9.2 7.0 9    41 1/2

 

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