The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 12, 2012

PiRate Ratings For College Football: September 13-15, 2012

Week three of the college football season does not present as many marquee games as last week, but there are still multiple interesting games on tap this weekend.  One of our favorite games this week takes place in East Lansing, Michigan, where Michigan State hosts Notre Dame.  Both teams enter the game with 2-0 records.  If you have gray hair somewhere on your body, you might have remembered a game between these two teams on this same field some 46 years ago.  The stakes were a little higher on Novermber 19, 1966.  This was the “Game of the Century” as it was billed then.  Football pundits agreed that it was the most important game since the 1946 Army-Notre Dame game played to a scoreless tie at Yankee Stadium.

 

Coming into this 1966 game, Notre Dame was 8-0 and ranked number one in the AP & UPI polls.  Michigan State was 9-0 and ranked number two in both polls.  The pundits of the day were split on which team was better, which further added to the buildup for this game.  Only two events dampened this game at all.  Number one, on the eve of the game, Sandy Koufax announced his retirement from baseball due to arthritis in his throwing arm.  Second, ABC chose to televise the game only on a regional basis with about 75% of the nation receiving this game.  Folks in the South complained about receiving 5-3 Tennessee hosting 3-5-1 Kentucky, and many of the Dixie markets received the game on a tape delayed basis following the Vols’ and Cats’ game.

 

Notre Dame suffered an early loss in this game when star quarterback Terry Hanratty was knocked out of the game, leaving backup Coley O’Brien to run the Irish offense.  Top running back Nick Eddy was not able to play either, and Rocky Bleier was called on to take up the slack. 

 

After a scoreless first quarter, Michigan State scored early in the second stanza.  Quarterback Jimmu Raye, operating out of a power-I alignment used play-action to throw a long bomb to all-American receiver Gene Washington.  Washington caught the pass to put the Spartans deep into the red zone.  The MSU fullback, Regis Cavender, plunged over guard to score the touchdown and put MSU up 7-0.

 

Later in the second quarter, Michigan State drove the ball to the Notre Dame 30 and stalled.  In 1966, this would have set up a fourth down conversion attempt for most teams, while some might have taken a delay of game and actually punted from the opponents’ 35 yard line.  But, Coach Duffy Daugherty had the nation’s first real kicking weapon (not counting Charlie Gogolak in the Ivy League), in barefoot kicker Dick Kennedy.  Kennedy came in and punched the ball through the uprights for a 47-yards field goal.  Michigan State led 10-0 and looked like they were on their way to a rout.

 

The next kickoff gave Notre Dame excellent field position near midfield.  O’Brien brought Notre Dame out in a spread one-back set and threw passes on the next three plays.  The third pass was a long post pattern to future pro Bob Gladieux, who outran the Spartan safeties and caught it at the goal for a touchdown.  The PAT was good, and Michigan State led 10-7 at the half.

 

The teams traded possession of the ball for most of the rest of the game.  Both teams turned the ball over with interceptions and fumbles, and this made Irish coach Ara Parseghian leery of gambling for broke.  This would come into play later.  Gladieux’s second half injury would remove the only real long threat for Notre Dame, and that too would be very important.

 

In the fourth quarter, Notre Dame mounted two scoring drives.  One resulted in a Joe Azzaro field goal when the Irish drove to the Spartan 10-yard line.  The second ended with Azzaro missing a field goal from about 30-35 yards out.

 

Michigan State’s offense could not move the ball in the final 30 minutes.  Notre Dame had one more chance to break the 10-10 tie, as the Irish started their final drive needing about 40 yards to get in field goal range and with less than two minutes left in the game.  Parseghian, leery that his team could turn the ball over and give Kennedy a chance to kick the winning field goal, and also having to play with a backup quarterback and no deep receiving threat, chose to run conservative plays up the middle.  The clock continued to run, and Michigan State defenders began taunting Notre Dame, calling the offense a bunch of sissies among other things.  The Irish got to their own 40 yard line with time for one more play.  O’Brien threw a bomb, which sailed wide of any player, and the game ended 10-10.  That was good enough to keep Notre Dame number one, and Michigan State number two.

 

Had the PiRate Ratings existed in 1966, we probably would have had Alabama as the number one team.  The Tide had won the previous two national championships, and the 1966 team was a good 7-10 points better than either of the prior two.  Alabama thoroughly destroyed Nebraska in that year’s Sugar Bowl (34-7), while neither the Irish or Spartans played in a bowl.

 

This Saturday, we know the game won’t end in a tie.  The winner will simply move to 3-0 and still not be ranked in the top 5.  Alabama will get its revenge in a way.

 

This week’s PiRate and PiRate Vintage FBS Rankings

#

Team

PiRate

#

Team

Vintage

1

L S U

131.5

1

Alabama

121.5

2

Alabama

130.4

2

L S U

119.5

3

Oklahoma

127.7

3

Oregon

119.0

4

U S C

126.9

4

Florida St.

117.5

5

Kansas State

123.6

5

U S C

117.0

6

Florida State

121.8

6

Ohio State

116.0

7

Oklahoma State

121.7

7

Georgia

115.5

8

Texas

120.4

8

Michigan St.

115.0

9

Oregon

120.1

9

Va. Tech

114.5

10

Georgia

120.0

10

Oklahoma

114.5

11

South Carolina

119.7

11

Stanford

114.0

12

Notre Dame

119.0

12

S. Carolina

113.5

13

Stanford

116.9

13

Texas

113.5

14

Nebraska

116.3

14

Notre Dame

113.5

15

Michigan State

115.7

15

West Virginia

113.0

16

West Virginia

115.6

16

U C L A

113.0

17

Ohio State

115.5

17

Florida

112.5

18

Florida

115.5

18

Arizona St.

112.5

19

Baylor

115.4

19

Georgia Tech

112.0

20

Clemson

115.3

20

Clemson

111.5

21

Texas Tech

115.3

21

Kansas St.

111.0

22

Michigan

114.8

22

Nebraska

111.0

23

Tennessee

114.5

23

B Y U

110.5

24

Wisconsin

114.4

24

Miss. State

110.5

25

U C L A

113.9

25

Arizona

110.5

26

Missouri

113.0

26

S. Florida

110.0

27

Mississippi State

112.5

27

Tennessee

109.5

28

Texas A&M

112.5

28

Michigan

109.0

29

Arkansas

112.1

29

Boise St.

108.5

30

T C U

111.3

30

T C U

108.0

31

B Y U

110.4

31

Louisville

108.0

32

Georgia Tech

110.0

32

Oregon St.

107.5

33

Virginia Tech

109.5

33

Texas A&M

107.5

34

Utah

109.2

34

N.C. State

107.5

35

Auburn

109.0

35

U C F

107.5

36

North Carolina

108.8

36

Purdue

107.0

37

Arizona

108.5

37

Arkansas

107.0

38

South Florida

108.4

38

Cincinnati

106.0

39

Oregon State

108.1

39

Wisconsin

106.0

40

Iowa State

107.8

40

Nevada

106.0

41

Vanderbilt

107.8

41

Wake Forest

105.5

42

Purdue

106.1

42

Texas Tech

105.5

43

Louisville

105.8

43

Missouri

105.5

44

Arizona State

105.7

44

Oklahoma St.

105.0

45

California

104.7

45

Tulsa

104.5

46

Tulsa

104.6

46

La. Tech

104.0

47

Cincinnati

104.0

47

Northwestern

103.5

48

Boise State

103.7

48

Washington

103.5

49

Louisiana Tech

103.7

49

Connecticut

103.5

50

Washington

103.6

50

Iowa

103.0

51

North Carolina State

103.5

51

Baylor

102.5

52

Central Florida

103.1

52

Ole Miss

102.5

53

Boston College

102.4

53

Ohio U

102.5

54

Rutgers

102.3

54

Utah St.

102.5

55

Ole Miss

102.0

55

N. Carolina

102.5

56

Illinois

102.0

56

S M U

102.5

57

Iowa

101.8

57

Auburn

102.5

58

Nevada

101.1

58

Virginia

101.5

59

Northwestern

101.0

59

N I U

101.5

60

Connecticut

100.2

60

Fresno St.

101.5

61

Virginia

100.1

61

Syracuse

101.0

62

Minnesota

99.9

62

S.J. State

101.0

63

Wake Forest

99.4

63

Utah

101.0

64

Kansas

99.4

64

Sou. Miss.

100.5

65

Washington State

99.0

65

W M U

100.5

66

Pittsburgh

98.8

66

U L L

100.0

67

S M U

98.7

67

Illinois

100.0

68

Syracuse

98.7

68

S.D. State

100.0

69

Ohio U

98.1

69

Maryland

99.5

70

Miami-FL

97.5

70

Iowa State

99.5

71

Duke

97.2

71

Vanderbilt

99.0

72

Kentucky

97.2

72

Rutgers

98.5

73

Southern Mississippi

97.1

73

Western Ky.

98.0

74

Toledo

97.1

74

Air Force

98.0

75

Houston

97.0

75

Toledo

98.0

76

Utah State

96.2

76

California

98.0

77

San Diego State

95.9

77

U L M

97.0

78

Maryland

95.5

78

Minnesota

97.0

79

Western Michigan

95.4

79

Kentucky

96.5

80

Indiana

95.0

80

E C U

95.5

81

Penn State

94.8

81

Boston Coll.

95.5

82

Fresno State

94.5

82

Miami

95.5

83

San Jose State

94.4

83

Penn State

95.0

84

Northern Illinois

94.0

84

Pittsburgh

94.0

85

Western Kentucky

93.9

85

Houston

94.0

86

UL-Lafayette

93.1

86

Miami (O)

93.5

87

Bowling Green

93.1

87

Washington St.

93.5

88

East Carolina

93.0

88

Rice

93.0

89

Wyoming

92.5

89

Marshall

93.0

90

U T E P

92.0

90

B G U

92.5

91

Louisiana-Monroe

91.7

91

F I U

92.0

92

Rice

91.3

92

Hawaii

92.0

93

Miami (O)

90.8

93

Indiana

91.0

94

Marshall

90.7

94

Kansas

91.0

95

Navy

89.8

95

Buffalo

90.5

96

Ball State

89.8

96

Texas St.

90.5

97

Arkansas State

88.6

97

Duke

90.0

98

Army

88.6

98

Ark. State

90.0

99

Temple

88.2

99

Temple

89.5

100

Air Force

88.1

100

U T E P

89.5

101

Colorado State

88.0

101

Wyoming

89.0

102

North Texas

87.9

102

UTSA

88.5

103

Colorado

87.8

103

Colo. State

88.5

104

Florida International

87.4

104

Kent St.

88.0

105

Kent St.

86.5

105

Ball St.

88.0

106

Central Michigan

85.6

106

Idaho

88.0

107

Hawaii

84.7

107

Colorado

87.5

108

Troy

84.1

108

Troy

87.0

109

Buffalo

84.0

109

Navy

87.0

110

Eastern Michigan

83.6

110

U A B

87.0

111

New Mexico

81.4

111

C M U

87.0

112

Idaho

80.8

112

New Mexico

86.0

113

U A B

80.3

113

N. Texas

85.0

114

Tulane

79.9

114

E M U

85.0

115

New Mexico State

77.7

115

Memphis

84.5

116

UNLV

77.3

116

Army

84.0

117

Texas State

76.2

117

N. Mex.State

84.0

118

U T S A

74.6

118

MTSU

83.5

119

Memphis

74.5

119

UNLV

82.5

120

Middle Tennessee

74.2

120

Tulane

82.0

121

Florida Atlantic

72.8

121

F A U

80.5

122

South Alabama

68.6

122

Akron

79.0

123

Akron

68.4

123

S. Alabama

77.5

124

Massachusetts

65.6

124

U. Mass.

77.0

 

Here are the ratings by conference

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Florida State

0-0

2-0

121.8

117.5

Clemson

0-0

2-0

115.3

111.5

North Carolina State

0-0

1-1

103.5

107.5

Boston College

0-1

1-1

102.4

95.5

Wake Forest

1-0

2-0

99.4

105.5

Maryland

0-0

2-0

95.5

99.5

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Georgia Tech

0-1

1-1

110.0

112.0

Virginia Tech

1-0

2-0

109.5

114.5

North Carolina

0-1

1-1

108.8

102.5

Virginia

0-0

2-0

100.1

101.5

Miami-FL

1-0

1-1

97.5

95.5

Duke

0-0

1-1

97.2

90.0

 

Conference Means

104.75

105.08

104.4

 

 

Big East Conference

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

South Florida

0-0

2-0

108.4

110.0

Louisville

0-0

2-0

105.8

108.0

Cincinnati

1-0

1-0

104.0

106.0

Rutgers

0-0

2-0

102.3

98.5

Connecticut

0-0

1-1

100.2

103.5

Pittsburgh

0-1

0-2

98.8

94.0

Syracuse

0-0

0-2

98.7

101.0

Temple

0-0

1-1

88.2

89.5

Conference Means

101.056

100.80

101.3

 

 

Big Ten

Leaders Division

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Ohio State

0-0

2-0

115.5

116.0

Wisconsin

0-0

1-1

114.4

106.0

Purdue

0-0

1-1

106.1

107.0

Illinois

0-0

1-1

102.0

100.0

Indiana

0-0

2-0

95.0

91.0

Penn State

0-0

0-2

94.8

95.0

Legends Division
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Nebraska

0-0

1-1

116.3

111.0

Michigan State

0-0

2-0

115.7

115.0

Michigan

0-0

1-1

114.8

109.0

Iowa

0-0

1-1

101.8

103.0

Northwestern

0-0

2-0

101.0

103.5

Minnesota

0-0

2-0

99.9

97.0

Conference Means

105.45

106.44

104.5

 

 

Big 12

 
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Oklahoma

0-0

2-0

127.7

114.5

Kansas State

0-0

2-0

123.6

111.0

Oklahoma State

0-0

1-1

121.7

105.0

Texas

0-0

2-0

120.4

113.5

West Virginia

0-0

1-0

115.6

113.0

Baylor

0-0

1-0

115.4

102.5

Texas Tech

0-0

2-0

115.3

105.5

T C U

0-0

1-0

111.3

108.0

Iowa State

0-0

2-0

107.8

99.5

Kansas

0-0

1-1

99.4

91.0

Conference Means

111.085

115.82

106.4

 

 

Conference USA

East Division
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Central Florida

0-0

1-1

103.1

107.5

Southern Mississippi

0-0

0-1

97.1

100.5

East Carolina

0-0

1-1

93.0

95.5

Marshall

0-0

1-1

90.7

93.0

U A B

0-0

0-1

80.3

87.0

Memphis

0-0

0-2

74.5

84.5

West Division
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Tulsa

1-0

1-1

104.6

104.5

S M U

0-0

1-1

98.7

102.5

Houston

0-0

0-2

97.0

94.0

U T E P

0-0

0-2

92.0

89.5

Rice

0-0

1-1

91.3

93.0

Tulane

0-1

0-2

79.9

82.0

 
Conference Means

93.1542

91.85

94.5

 

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Notre Dame

2-0

119.0

113.5

B Y U

2-0

110.4

110.5

Navy

0-1

89.8

87.0

Army

0-1

88.6

84.0

Conference Means

100.35

101.95

98.8

 

 

Mid American Conference

East Division
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Ohio U

0-0

2-0

98.1

102.5

Bowling Green

0-0

1-1

93.1

92.5

Miami (O)

0-0

1-1

90.8

93.5

Kent St.

0-0

1-1

86.5

88.0

Buffalo

0-0

1-1

84.0

90.5

Akron

0-0

0-2

68.4

79.0

Massachusetts

0-0

0-2

65.6

77.0

West Division
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Toledo

0-0

1-1

97.1

98.0

Western Michigan

0-0

1-1

95.4

100.5

Northern Illinois

0-0

1-1

94.0

101.5

Ball State

1-0

1-1

89.8

88.0

Central Michigan

0-0

1-1

85.6

87.0

Eastern Michigan

0-1

0-2

83.6

85.0

 
Conference Means

89.0385

87.08

91.0

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Boise State

0-0

0-1

103.7

108.5

Nevada

0-0

1-1

101.1

106.0

San Diego State

0-0

1-1

95.9

100.0

Fresno State

0-0

1-1

94.5

101.5

Wyoming

0-0

0-2

92.5

89.0

Air Force

0-0

1-1

88.1

98.0

Colorado State

0-0

1-1

88.0

88.5

Hawaii

0-0

0-1

84.7

92.0

New Mexico

0-0

1-1

81.4

86.0

UNLV

0-0

0-2

77.3

82.5

   
Conference Means

92.96

90.72

95.2

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Oregon

0-0

2-0

120.1

119.0

Stanford

0-0

2-0

116.9

114.0

Oregon State

0-0

1-0

108.1

107.5

California

0-0

1-1

104.7

98.0

Washington

0-0

1-1

103.6

103.5

Washington State

0-0

1-1

99.0

93.5

South Division
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

U S C

0-0

2-0

126.9

117.0

U C L A

0-0

2-0

113.9

113.0

Utah

0-0

1-1

109.2

101.0

Arizona

0-0

2-0

108.5

110.5

Arizona State

0-0

2-0

105.7

112.5

Colorado

0-0

0-2

87.8

87.5

Conference Means

107.558

108.70

106.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Georgia

1-0

2-0

120.0

115.5

South Carolina

1-0

2-0

119.7

113.5

Florida

1-0

2-0

115.5

112.5

Tennessee

0-0

2-0

114.5

109.5

Missouri

0-1

1-1

113.0

105.5

Vanderbilt

0-1

0-2

107.8

99.0

Kentucky

0-0

1-1

97.2

96.5

West Division
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

L S U

0-0

2-0

131.5

119.5

Alabama

0-0

2-0

130.4

121.5

Mississippi State

1-0

2-0

112.5

110.5

Texas A&M

0-1

0-1

112.5

107.5

Arkansas

0-0

1-1

112.1

107.0

Auburn

0-1

0-2

109.0

102.5

Ole Miss

0-0

2-0

102.0

102.5

 
Conference Means

111.454

114.12

108.8

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Western Kentucky

0-0

1-1

93.9

98.0

UL-Lafayette

1-0

2-0

93.1

100.0

Louisiana-Monroe

0-0

1-0

91.7

97.0

Arkansas State

0-0

1-1

88.6

90.0

North Texas

0-0

1-1

87.9

85.0

Florida International

0-0

1-1

87.4

92.0

Troy

0-1

1-1

84.1

87.0

Middle Tennessee

1-0

1-1

74.2

83.5

Florida Atlantic

0-1

1-1

72.8

80.5

South Alabama

0-0

1-1

68.6

77.5

Conference Means

86.64

84.23

89.1

 

 

Western Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Louisiana Tech

0-0

1-0

103.7

104.0

Utah State

0-0

2-0

96.2

102.5

San Jose State

0-0

1-1

94.4

101.0

Idaho

0-0

0-2

80.8

88.0

New Mexico State

0-0

1-1

77.7

84.0

Texas State

0-0

1-1

76.2

90.5

U T S A

0-0

2-0

74.6

88.5

Conference Means

90.15

86.23

94.1

 

 

Here are this week’s PiRate and PiRate Vintage Spreads

Home Team in all CAPS

Vegas Line as of 12PM, Wednesday, September 12, 2012

This Week’s Games

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

PiRate

Vintage

Line

Thursday, September 13

 

 

 

S. FLORIDA

Rutgers

9.1

14.5

7 1/2

 

 

 

 

 

Friday, September 14

 

 

 

Washington St.

U N L V

19.7

9.0

8 1/2

 

 

 

 

 

Saturday, September 15

 

 

 

PENN STATE

Navy

8.0

11.0

5 1/2

MICHIGAN

U Mass

52.7

35.5

46 1/2

NORTHWESTERN

Boston College

1.6

11.0

3 1/2

PURDUE

Eastern Michigan

25.5

25.0

24   

Northern Illinois

ARMY

2.4

14.5

3   

FLORIDA STATE

Wake Forest

25.4

15.0

28   

Connecticut

MARYLAND

1.7

1.0

3   

Texas A&M

S M U

11.3

2.5

13   

Virginia Tech

PITTSBURGH

8.2

18.0

10   

Southern Cal

STANFORD

7.0

0.0

7 1/2

SOUTHERN MISS.

East Carolina

7.1

8.0

7 1/2

OHIO STATE

California

14.8

22.0

17   

Texas

OLE MISS

14.9

7.5

10 1/2

MISSOURI

Arizona State

10.3

-4.0

6 1/2

UTAH

B y u

0.8

-7.5

-4   

LOUISVILLE

North Carolina

0.0

8.5

3   

GEORGIA TECH

Virginia

12.9

13.5

10 1/2

Alabama

ARKANSAS

15.3

11.5

21    

BOISE STATE

Miami (O)

16.9

19.0

21   

T c u

KANSAS

8.9

14.0

21   

LOUISIANA TECH

Rice

14.9

13.5

20 1/2

MINNESOTA

Western Michigan

7.5

-0.5

2 1/2

TOLEDO

Bowling Green

6.5

8.0

3 1/2

SOUTH CAROLINA

U a b

42.4

29.5

33 1/2

Ohio U

MARSHALL

4.9

7.0

6 1/2

TEXAS TECH

New Mexico

36.9

22.5

33 1/2

TENNESSEE

Florida

2.0

0.0

3   

SAN JOSE STATE

Colorado State

9.4

15.5

11   

WISCONSIN

Utah State

21.7

7.0

14   

L S U

Idaho

54.7

35.5

42 1/2

Notre Dame

MICHIGAN STATE

0.3

-4.5

-6   

INDIANA

Ball State

7.7

5.5

2 1/2

FRESNO STATE

Colorado

9.7

17.0

14   

U T E P

New Mexico State

16.8

8.0

12 1/2

U C L A

Houston

20.4

22.5

17   

GEORGIA

Florida Atlantic

50.2

38.0

42 1/2

NEBRASKA

Arkansas State

30.7

24.0

24 1/2

NORTH CAROLINA STATE

South Alabama

37.9

33.0

31   

CENTRAL FLORIDA

Florida Int’l

18.2

18.0

17 1/2

OKLAHOMA STATE

UL-Lafayette

31.6

8.0

22 1/2

KANSAS STATE

North Texas

39.2

29.5

28 1/2

MEMPHIS

Middle Tennessee

2.8

3.5

-3 1/2

KENTUCKY

Western Kentucky

5.8

1.0

7   

Mississippi State

TROY

25.4

20.5

16 1/2

AUBURN

Louisiana-Monroe

20.3

8.5

16 1/2

 

 

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