The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 5, 2012

PiRate Ratings NFL Picks for Week 1: September 5-10, 2012

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:31 am

You are looking live at PiRate Pavilion, as the PiRates have been studiously deliberating our opening week picks for the NFL Season.  All of us here agree on one major wagering strategy: DON’T use our recommendations to go broke!

 

With that caveat, if you look at our picks as something fun to read and maybe discuss over a beer with your friends, then you have the correct idea on how best to use these picks.

 

Okay, if you followed our NFL picks last year (and disregarded our college selections or our warning not to follow our advice), you turned a nice profit, as we were correct on 60.8% of our NFL selections.  We don’t have the confidence to clearly state that we can do that again.  We “accidentally” happened to be on the “Sharp Side” of 80% of our selections.  One of us here has a general idea of how the smart players select games based on mathematics as well as actual football data.  Knowing the ins and outs of why sometimes getting 7 ½ points and 10 ½ points make a better play that getting 9 and 13 is just as important as knowing when Team A’s right tackle cannot block Team B’s defensive end.

 

In the past, we have told you about how unscrupulous touts con players into paying exorbitant amounts of money for useless picks.  They give 1,000,000 prospective customers the four weeks of the NFL preseason for free.  In week one, they have a big 4-star play that they claim is so hot that “you could wager on this game as if it has already been played.”  They give 500,000 one side of the game and 500,000 the other side of the game.

 

They note which side was the winning side of the big wager.  In week two, they have a super pick of the week that they guarantee a winner.  Of the 500,000, they give 250,000 one side and 250,000 the other side.

 

This same procedure continues for the next two weeks; 125,000 get one side and 125,000 get the other.  The fourth week, 62,500 get one side and 62,500 get the other.

 

Of course, the players that got the original losing side continue to receive picks and after four weeks, 62,500 went 4-0 following the advice of the touts.  Another 125,000 went 3-1, which at 75% is well above what anybody can do over the course of time.  187,500 people now believe this tout is reliable and a consistent winner.  If 75,000 agree to fork over $120 for the season, the tout has just conned the public out of 9 million dollars.

 

Here are the real hard facts.  The most successful players in the football wagering game consider themselves lucky and fortunate to win 65% of their wagers and are ecstatic to win 62.5%.  Most of the top guys hit on 60% of their wagers.  If they become any more successful than 60%, it becomes close to impossible to find a book that will accept their wagers, unless they are playing the side opposite of the general public and provide insurance for the book.  

 

So, you should be happy if you can win 52.4% of the time.  It isn’t easy.  The sportsbooks want you to win 50% of your wagers.  If you win 45%, they will lose your business in time.  However, at 50%, they will make a 5% profit off you and slowly drain you of your worth over time.  At 50%, the public can see how with just one or two more points, they would have won instead of lost; it is the best hook.

 

Now, to get to the subject at hand, we tend to play underdogs when we see value.  We like to play teasers and moneyline parlays when we can get the parlay under -120.  Most teaser players are big losers because they don’t understand mathematics and statistics.  There is a science behind isolating games where you move the number through certain points.  It takes a few weeks of the season to determine these values, but when you hit upon a season like 2011, when spreads were not wide, you can make a profit playing teasers.  When you see the limits on teasers coming down, you know there is a reason.

 

We decided to split up our college and NFL picks this year, so we will offer a lot more NFL selections.  We do not make 4-star, 3-star, etc. picks.  We believe all of our plays are equal, or else we would not issue them.  We plan on releasing a lot of picks at first, so there is no way you can play them all, and remember, you should not play any based on our selections.  We are using the strategy that we can be right 5 times out of 9 if we select enough games, just like a stock investor would eliminate risk by investing in enough stocks to be diversified.

 

NFL Week One Plays

 

1. Miami +12 ½ vs. Houston

We like double digit dogs at the beginning of the season.  Before a bad team realizes they are really bad, they play their best ball of the season.  We believe the Dolphins have enough defense to contain the Texans just enough to lose by 10 or less.  We’d be much happier at +13 or more, but 12 ½ is still good enough for week one.

 

2. Arizona +3 vs. Seattle

We consider this game a 50-50 tossup, so getting three points throws it in our favor to the tune of about 57-60%.  Of course, we could be wrong, but we feel the Cardinals will win this game outright.

 

3. Pittsburgh +2 vs. Denver

Here again, we believe the wrong team is favored.  Our staff believes the Steelers are the top-rated AFC team to start the season, and Denver is overrated.  Peyton Manning is not defending Ben Roethlisberger.  The Broncos’ defense looked a lot better than it was last year, because Denver’s offense ate the clock and kept the defense off the field. 

 

4. Moneyline Parlay @ +108 (you win $108 for every $100 you wager)

New York Giants over Dallas

Baltimore over Cincinnati

 

5. Moneyline Parlay @ +108

Baltimore over Cincinnati

Chicago over Indianapolis

Philadelphia over Cleveland

 

6. Moneyline Parlay @ -110

Houston over Miami

New Orleans over Washington

Detroit over St. Louis

 

7. Moneyline Parlay @ -116

New York Giants over Dallas

Chicago over Indianapolis

 

8. 10-point Teaser

Chicago +1 vs. Indianapolis

Tennessee +16 vs. New England

Jacksonville +13 ½ vs. Minnesota

 

9. 10-point Teaser

Houston -2 ½ vs. Miami

Kansas City +13 vs. Atlanta

San Francisco +15 vs. Green Bay

 

10. 10-point Teaser

Pittsburgh +12 vs. Denver

Baltimore +4 vs. Cincinnati

San Diego +9 vs. Oakland

 

11. 10-point Teaser

New York Giants & Dallas OVER 34 ½

Chicago & Indianapolis OVER 33

Philadelphia & Cleveland OVER 33 ½

 

12. 10-point Teaser

Buffalo & New York Jets OVER 30 ½

New Orleans & Washington OVER 40

Tennessee & New England OVER 37

 

13. 10-point Teaser

Detroit & St. LOUIS UNDER 55 ½

Atlanta & Kansas City OVER 32

Seattle & Arizona OVER 31

 

14. 13-point Teaser

New York Giants & Dallas OVER 31 ½

Chicago & Indianapolis OVER 30

Philadelphia & Cleveland OVER 30 ½

Buffalo & New York Jets OVER 27 ½

 

15. 13-point Teaser

Tennessee & New England OVER 34

St. Louis & Detroit UNDER 58 ½

Atlanta & Kansas City OVER 29

Seattle & Arizona OVER 28

________________________________________________________________________

 

We are in a fun contest where we were given an imaginary bankroll of $1,000,000 and allowed to wager any type of real wager each week.  Here is how we played those picks.

 

1. Pittsburgh +2 vs. Denver $11,000 to win $10,000

 

2. 13-point Teaser $12,000 to win $10,000

New York Giants + Dallas OVER 31 ½

Philadelphia + Cleveland OVER 30 ½

Buffalo + New York Jets OVER 27 ½

Seattle + Arizona OVER 28

 

3. Moneyline Parlay $10,000 to win $10,800

Baltimore over Cincinnati

Chicago over Indianapolis

Philadelphia over Cleveland

 

4. Moneyline Parlay $10,000 to win $10,800

New York Giants over Dallas

Baltimore over Cincinnati

 

 

5. Moneyline Parlay $11,600 to win $10,000

New York Giants over Dallas

Chicago over Indianapolis

 

Good luck to all, but remember, DO NOT wager your hard-earned money on our selections.  We do not.

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