The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 2, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 1: September 5-9, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:41 pm

If you haven’t followed our college ratings, then you need to know about the new (old) rating the PiRate Ratings has brought back this year.

 

We call it the “PiRate Vintage Rating.”  It is actually a modification of our ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  Our creator found the old ratings in an old spiral notebook while cleaning his basement in April of this year.  After looking it over, he realized that by applying a little additional knowledge about how certain statistics affect the scores of NFL games, and with the use of a spreadsheet to back-test data for the last dozen years, he formulized a new rating.  The Vintage Rating is 100% independent of the other PiRate Ratings, so it will be interesting to see how it fares compared to the PiRate, PiRate Mean, and PiRate Biased ratings.  These three ratings are computed from the same set of data with different formulae.  The Vintage Ratings use only full and half points.

 

Remember this before continuing.  We strongly urge you not to rely on these ratings to pick games against the spread.  Yes, it is true that last year, our regular PiRate Ratings at 56%+ against the spread were the most accurate NFL ratings against the spread of the 75 or so national computer ratings that participate in Todd Beck’s “Prediction Tracker.”  However, we picked 81 NFL selections against the spread (for fun and not for investment) and were correct just 53.2% of the time 42-37-2.  There is only one way to really win in Vegas or offshore:  you have to be part of an elite syndicate of players with access to a supercomputer that can interpret rooms full of data and find consistent facts that win over time.  It has been done, because there are people that have been cut off from all the books or reduced to small maximums.  If you are one of those people, you most definitely are not reading this.

 

Without further adieu, here are our initial NFL ratings:

 

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Philadelphia Eagles

104.6

105.6

106.3

107.0

2

New York Giants

103.3

106.2

103.8

103.0

3

Dallas Cowboys

101.4

102.2

101.7

101.5

2.5

Washington Redskins

95.9

94.1

96.5

97.5

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Green Bay Packers

107.7

107.6

104.0

103.0

3

Chicago Bears

104.0

99.8

103.3

103.0

2

Detroit Lions

103.2

102.8

102.6

102.0

2.5

Minnesota Vikings

93.0

94.2

93.9

94.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New Orleans Saints

103.5

105.6

100.5

100.5

2

Atlanta Falcons

102.2

102.3

101.5

100.5

3

Carolina Panthers

95.5

97.8

99.2

98.5

3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

95.2

92.6

95.9

97.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

San Francisco 49ers

106.0

105.5

103.7

104.5

3.5

Arizona Cardinals

99.0

99.7

99.7

98.0

2.5

Seattle Seahawks

98.1

99.0

98.9

99.0

3

St. Louis Rams

93.4

93.0

94.6

95.5

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New England Patriots

106.7

108.7

104.9

106.5

3.5

New York Jets

102.5

101.2

101.9

103.5

2.5

Buffalo Bills

97.5

96.5

99.8

98.5

3.5

Miami Dolphins

95.9

98.9

97.6

95.5

3.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Pittsburgh Steelers

106.1

105.4

102.9

105.0

2.5

Baltimore Ravens

105.4

104.8

104.8

104.5

3

Cincinnati Bengals

99.5

98.8

101.3

100.5

2

Cleveland Browns

93.8

95.1

96.6

96.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Houston Texans

106.6

103.3

105.3

105.5

2

Tennessee Titans

97.9

98.7

97.6

97.0

2.5

Jacksonville Jaguars

94.8

95.0

93.8

93.0

2.5

Indianapolis Colts

91.3

92.2

91.3

91.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Denver Broncos

101.4

98.9

100.1

100.0

3

San Diego Chargers

101.1

101.9

100.4

99.5

3

Kansas City Chiefs

98.1

97.9

99.0

99.5

2

Oakland Raiders

95.1

96.5

96.9

97.5

2

 

Here is our look at how we think the divisional standings will look on New Year’s Eve.

 

NFC East

Won

Lost

Philadelphia Eagles

10

6

New York Giants

10

6

Dallas Cowboys

7

9

Washington Redskins

5

11

 

 

 

NFC North

 

 

Green Bay Packers

12

4

Chicago Bears

12

4

Detroit Lions

9

7

Minnesota Vikings

4

12

 

 

 

NFC South

 

 

New Orleans Saints

9

7

Atlanta Falcons

10

6

Carolina Panthers

6

10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

5

11

 

 

 

NFC West

 

 

San Francisco 49ers

11

5

Arizona Cardinals

5

11

Seattle Seahawks

6

10

St. Louis Rams

5

11

 

 

 

AFC East

 

 

New England Patriots

12

4

New York Jets

7

9

Buffalo Bills

8

8

Miami Dolphins

6

10

 

 

 

AFC North

 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

12

4

Baltimore Ravens

12

4

Cincinnati Bengals

8

8

Cleveland Browns

4

12

 

 

 

AFC South

 

 

Houston Texans

11

5

Tennessee Titans

7

9

Jacksonville Jaguars

6

10

Indianapolis Colts

6

10

 

 

 

AFC West

 

 

Denver Broncos

9

7

San Diego Chargers

9

7

Kansas City Chiefs

8

8

Oakland Raiders

5

11

 

Wildcard Round

Philadelphia over New York Giants

Chicago over Atlanta

Houston over San Diego

Denver over Baltimore

 

Divisional Round

Green Bay over Chicago

San Francisco over Philadelphia

Pittsburgh over Denver

New England over Houston

 

Conference Championships

Green Bay over San Francisco

Pittsburgh over New England

 

Super Bowl XLVII

Pittsburgh over Green Bay

 

Here are the Ratings’ spreads for week one of the NFL season.

Home team is in all CAPS

If a minus (-) precedes a number in Mean, Bias, or Vintage numbers, that means the PiRate underdog is the favorite.

For example, under “Vintage,” Atlanta is listed at -1.0 vs. Kansas City.  This means Kansas City is favored by 1.0 points in this rating.

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vintage

Vegas

Totals

N. Y. GIANTS Dallas

4.9

7.0

5.1

4.5

4   

46

CHICAGO Indianapolis

14.7

9.6

14.0

14.0

9 1/2

42

Philadelphia CLEVELAND

8.3

8.0

7.2

8.5

8   

41 1/2

N. Y. JETS Buffalo

7.5

7.2

4.6

7.5

3   

40 1/2

NEW ORLEANS Washington

9.6

13.5

6.0

5.0

9 1/2

49 1/2

New England TENNESSEE

6.3

7.5

4.8

7.0

6 1/2

47 1/2

MINNESOTA Jacksonville

0.7

1.7

2.6

3.5

4   

38   

HOUSTON Miami

12.7

6.4

9.7

12.0

10 1/2

43   

DETROIT St. Louis

12.3

12.3

10.5

9.0

8 1/2

46 1/2

Atlanta KANSAS CITY

2.1

2.4

0.5

-1.0

2 1/2

42   

GREEN BAY San Francisco

4.7

5.1

3.3

1.5

5 1/2

45   

Carolina TAMPA BAY

-2.2

2.7

0.8

-1.0

2 1/2

46 1/2

ARIZONA Seattle

3.4

3.2

3.3

1.5

-2 1/2

40 1/2

DENVER Pittsburgh

-1.7

-3.5

0.2

-2.0

1   

44 1/2

BALTIMORE Cincinnati

8.9

9.0

6.5

7.0

6   

41   

San Diego OAKLAND

4.0

3.4

1.5

0.0

1 1/2

47 1/2

 

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