NCAA Tournament–Final Four Preview

Welcome back to the PiRate Ratings’ Bracketnomics.  A quick tutorial about Bracketnomics:  We have studied numerous statistical factors of all Final Four Teams from the 1950’s until 2011.  We isolated the statistical similarities of those teams and found certain shared statistical characteristics.  For the last eight years, we have been applying it to the NCAA teams trying to discover which ones shared these same statistics as the Final Four teams of yesteryear.  In five of the last seven years, we were pretty spot on with our selections.  For instance, in 2009, whenKentucky,Kansas, andOhioStatewere listed as the heavy tri-favorites, our system showed Duke to be the top-rated team.  We went with Duke even though the Blue Devils were not being highly considered.  Now admittedly, we did not seeButlercoming through to the Finals that year, or last year either, but we did rateButleras one to watch to get to the Elite 8.

If you want all the details behind our PiRate Criteria Score, please refer to our Bracketnomics 505, 2012 edition at: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2012/03/10/bracketnomics-505-2012-edition/

 

2012 PiRate Ratings Final Four Preview—Semifinal Round

Saturday, March 31, 2012

The Superdome—New Orleans

CBS Television—Announcers: Jim Nantz, Clark Kellogg, and Steve Kerr

 

Game 1: Kentucky vs. Louisville – 6:09 PM EDT

Game 2: Kansas vs. Ohio State – Approximately 8:49 PM EDT

 

Game Previews

 

#1S Kentucky (36-2) vs. #4W Louisville (30-9)

 

Kentucky Wildcats

 

No.	Name	Pos.	Ht.	Wt.	Yr.	Hometown (Last School)
1	Darius Miller	G	6-08	235	SR	Maysville,Ky.(MasonCounty)
3	Terrence Jones	F	6-09	252	SO	Portland,Ore.(Jefferson)
4	Jon Hood	G	6-07	215	JR	Madisonville,Ky.(North Hopkins)
5	Jarrod Polson	G	6-02	185	SO	Nicholasville,Ky.(West Jessamine)
10	Twany Beckham	G	6-05	205	JR	Louisville,Ky.(MississippiState)
12	Ryan Harrow	G	6-02	175	SO	Marietta, Ga. (N.C. State)
13	Sam Malone	G	5-11	190	FR	Scituate,Mass.(Scituate)
14	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	F	6-07	232	FR	Somerdale,N.J.(St. Patrick)
20	Doron Lamb	G	6-04	210	SO	Queens,N.Y.(OakHillAcademy)
23	Anthony Davis	F	6-10	220	FR	Chicago,Ill.(Perspectives Charter)
25	Marquis Teague	G	6-02	189	FR	Indianapolis,Ind.(Pike)
30	Eloy Vargas	F	6-11	244	SR	Moca,Dominican Republic(Miami-Dade CC)
32	Brian Long	G	5-09	150	FR	Dumont,N.J.(River Dell)
33	Kyle Wiltjer	F	6-09	239	FR	Portland,Ore.(Jesuit)
Coaches and Staff
John Calipari – Head Coach
Orlando Antigua- Assistant Coach
Kenny Payne – Assistant Coach
John Robic – Assistant Coach

 

Results   Opponent	UK	Opp
Marist	108	58
(n)Kansas	75	65
(n)Penn State	85	47
(n) Old Dominion	62	52
Radford	88	40
Portland	87	63
St. John’s	81	59
North Carolina	73	72
at Indiana	72	73
Chattanooga	87	62
Samford	82	50
Loyola (Md.)	87	63
Lamar	86	64
Louisville	69	62
(n) Arkansas-Little Rock	73	51
South Carolina	79	64
at Auburn	68	53
at Tennessee	65	62
Arkansas	86	63
Alabama	77	71
at Georgia	57	44
at L S U	74	50
Tennessee	69	44
at South Carolina	86	52
Florida	78	58
at Vanderbilt	69	63
Ole Miss	77	62
at Mississippi State	73	64
Vanderbilt	83	74
Georgia	79	49
at Florida	74	59
(n) L S U	60	51
(n) Florida	74	71
(n) Vanderbilt	64	71
ncaa Western Kentucky	81	66
ncaa Iowa State	87	71
ncaa Indiana	102	90
ncaa Baylor	82	70

 

Statistics

Player	G-GS	Min	Avg	FG-Att	Fg%	3 FG-Att	3Pt %	Ft-Att	Ft%
Anthony Davis	38-38	1206	31.7	202-319	.633	3-20	.150	136-191	.712
Doron Lamb	38-33	1179	31.0	164-348	.471	73-155	.471	116-140	.829
Terrence Jones	36-32	1052	29.2	170-339	.501	16-48	.333	98-153	.641
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	38-37	1187	31.2	152-313	.486	13-50	.260	139-184	.755
Marquis Teague	38-38	1236	32.5	136-330	.412	24-77	.312	83-116	.716
Darius Miller	38-11	989	26.0	137-290	.472	54-143	.378	51-65	.785
Kyle Wiltjer	38-0	451	11.9	69-158	.437	34-79	.430	22-27	.815
Sam Malone	6-0	13	2.2	3-6	.500	0-0	.000	0-0	.000
Eloy Vargas	31-1	195	6.3	12-36	.333	0-1	.000	4-13	.308
Brian Long	12-0	17	1.4	0-1	.000	0-0	.000	2-4	.500
Jarrod Polson	11-0	31	2.8	0-2	.000	0-1	.000	1-4	.250
Twany Beckham	16-0	44	2.8	0-1	.000	0-0	.000	0-0	.000
Kentucky	38	7600	200.0	1045-2143	.488	217-574	.378	652-897	.727
Opponents	38	7600	200.0	843-2248	.375	210-667	.315	407-586	.695
Player	Reb O	Reb D	Tot	F-DQ	Ast	TO	Blk	Stl	Pts
Anthony Davis	113	272	385	74-1	43	35	175	50	543
Doron Lamb	14	91	105	69-0	56	39	2	19	517
Terrence Jones	93	165	258	85-3	51	60	64	46	454
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	101	186	287	92-5	73	82	36	39	456
Marquis Teague	16	81	97	85-1	183	105	11	36	379
Darius Miller	35	66	101	83-0	82	55	11	31	379
Kyle Wiltjer	25	44	69	44-0	16	27	17	4	194
Sam Malone	0	2	2	0-0	1	4	0	0	6
Eloy Vargas	20	36	56	25-0	2	6	10	3	28
Brian Long	1	1	2	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Jarrod Polson	0	4	4	4-0	1	5	0	2	1
Twany Beckham	2	6	8	0-0	2	1	0	1	0
Team	49	57	106	9
Kentucky	469	1011	1480	564-10	510	428	326	231	2959
Opponents	457	754	1211	718-x	404	445	124	207	2303
Player	Scoring		Rebounding
Anthony Davis	14.3		10.1
Doron Lamb	13.6		2.8
Terrence Jones	12.6		7.2
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	12.0		7.6
Marquis Teague	10.0		2.6
Darius Miller	10.0		2.7
Kyle Wiltjer	5.1		1.8
Sam Malone	1.0		0.3
Eloy Vargas	0.9		1.8
Brian Long	0.2		0.2
Jarrod Polson	0.1		0.4
Twany Beckham	0.0		0.5
Team			2.8
Kentucky	77.9		38.9
Opponents	60.6		31.9

 

Louisville Cardinals

#	NAME	POS	HT	WT	Yr	HOMETOWN (PREVIOUS SCHOOL)
1	Angel Nunez	F	6-07	190	Fr	Washington Heights,N.Y.(Notre Dame Prep)
2	Russ Smith	G	6-00	160	So	Brooklyn,N.Y.(Archbishop Molloy/South Kent)
3	Peyton Siva	G	6-00	180	Jr	Seattle,Wash.(Franklin)
4	Rakeem Buckles	F	6-07	215	Jr	Miami,Fla.(Monsignor Pace)
5	Chris Smith	G	6-02	195	Sr	Millstone, N.J. (Manhattan)
10	Gorgui Dieng	C	6-11	235	So	Kebemer,Senegal(Covenant/Huntington Prep)
11	Luke Hancock	F	6-06	200	Jr	Roanoke,Va.(George Mason)
12	Zach Price	C	6-10	235	Fr	Louisville,Ky.(Jeffersontown)
14	Kyle Kuric	G/F	6-04	195	Sr	Evansville,Ind.(Memorial)
15	Tim Henderson	G	6-02	185	So	Louisville,Ky.(ChristianAcademy)
21	Jared Swopshire	F	6-08	200	Jr	St. Louis,Mo.(IMGAcademy)
22	Elisha Justice	G	5-10	175	So	Dorton,Ky.(ShelbyValley)
23	Kevin Ware	G	6-04	185	Fr	Conyers,Ga.(RockdaleCounty)
24	Chane Behanan	F	6-06	245	Fr	Cincinnati,Ohio(Bowling Green)
25	Wayne Blackshear	G/F	6-05	225	Fr	Chicago,Ill.(Morgan Park)
33	Mike Marra	G	6-05	200	Jr	Smithfield,R.I.(NorthfieldMt.HermonSchool)
44	Stephan Van Treese	F	6-08	235	Jr	Indianapolis,Ind.(LawrenceNorth)

 

Coaches
Rick Pitino – Head Coach
Richard Pitino – Associate Coach
Wyking Jones – Assistant Coach
Kevin Keatts – Assistant Coach

 

Results

Opponent	UL	Opp
UT MARTIN	83	48
LAMAR	68	48
at BUTLER	69	53
ARKANSAS STATE	54	27
OHIO	59	54
LONG BEACH STATE	79	66
VANDERBILT	62	60
IUPUI	90	60
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON	80	58
MEMPHIS	95	87
COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON	69	62
WESTERN KENTUCKY	70	60
GEORGETOWN	68	71
at KENTUCKY	62	69
at ST. JOHN’S	73	58
NOTRE DAME	65	67
at Providence College	59	90
DEPAUL	76	59
at MARQUETTE	63	74
at PITT	73	62
VILLANOVA	84	74
at SETON HALL	60	51
RUTGERS	78	66
CONNECTICUT	80	59
at WEST VIRGINIA	77	74
SYRACUSE	51	52
at DEPAUL	90	82
at CINCINNATI	56	60
PITTSBURGH	57	54
SOUTH FLORIDA	51	58
at SYRACUSE	49	58
(n) SETON HALL	61	55
(n) MARQUETTE	84	71
(n) NOTRE DAME	64	50
(n) CINCINNATI	50	44
ncaa DAVIDSON	69	62
ncaa NEW MEXICO	59	56
ncaa MICHIGAN STATE	57	44
ncaa FLORIDA	72	68

 

Statistics

Player	GP	Min.	Avg	FG-Att	Pct	3FG-Att	Pct.	FT-Att	Pct.
Kyle Kuric	37-35	1341	36.2	162-383	.423	75-229	.328	72-90	.800
Russ Smith	38-7	811	21.3	145-404	.359	41-133	.308	109-142	.768
Chris Smith	39-37	1076	27.6	119-291	.409	66-166	.398	74-100	.740
Chane Behanan	39-36	1005	25.8	142-277	.513	6-34	.176	80-136	.588
Gorgui Dieng	39-39	1272	32.6	142-266	.534	1-2	.500	72-107	.673
Peyton Siva	37-37	1172	31.7	117-290	.403	16-67	.239	86-117	.735
Mike Marra	2-0	25	12.5	5-8	.625	1-4	.250	1-2	.500
Rakeem Buckles	11-1	149	13.5	16-37	.432	2-5	.400	10-18	.556
Jared Swopshire	38-2	505	13.3	45-115	.391	5-24	.208	33-48	.688
Wayne Blackshear	14-1	91	6.5	9-36	.250	5-18	.278	5-9	.556
Angel Nunez	12-0	55	4.6	8-21	.381	6-16	.375	2-4	.500
Mark Jackson	3-0	12	4.0	2-4	.500	1-1	1.000	0-0	.000
Stephan Van Treese	3-0	20	6.7	1-3	.333	0-0	.000	2-4	.500
Tim Henderson	11-0	57	5.2	4-11	.364	3-7	.429	3-6	.500
Kevin Ware	20-0	105	5.3	8-27	.296	0-5	.000	4-12	.333
Elisha Justice	24-0	122	5.1	10-26	.385	1-11	.091	2-3	.667
Zach Price	19-0	82	4.3	4-13	.308	0-0	.000	4-15	.267
Total……….	39	7900	202.6	939-2212	.425	229-722	.317	559-813	.688
Opponents……	39	7900	202.6	829-2184	.380	216-713	.303	497-746	.666
Player	Reb O	Reb D	Reb Tot	Fl-DQ	Ast	TO	Blk	Stl	Pts
Kyle Kuric	41	113	154	78-0	45	38	19	46	471
Russ Smith	26	69	95	108-3	75	87	1	85	440
Chris Smith	40	102	142	56-0	75	43	0	34	378
Chane Behanan	115	174	289	75-2	32	70	18	32	370
Gorgui Dieng	130	221	351	130-5	40	77	124	45	357
Peyton Siva	19	99	118	112-5	208	128	5	64	336
Mike Marra	1	4	5	0-0	2	2	0	1	12
Rakeem Buckles	18	24	42	20-0	3	15	2	7	44
Jared Swopshire	30	79	109	41-0	17	22	9	13	128
Wayne Blackshear	6	11	17	8-0	2	7	1	3	28
Angel Nunez	2	6	8	1-0	2	6	2	1	24
Mark Jackson	0	3	3	1-0	0	2	0	0	5
Stephan Van Treese	4	2	6	5-0	0	1	1	1	4
Tim Henderson	3	6	9	7-0	6	6	0	1	14
Kevin Ware	4	10	14	12-0	9	21	4	7	20
Elisha Justice	1	8	9	15-0	9	12	0	6	23
Zach Price	6	9	15	18-1	0	3	3	2	12
	53	33	86	3		10
Total……….	499	973	1472	690-16	525	550	189	348	2666
Opponents……	503	908	1411	731-x	444	607	137	277	2371
Player	Scoring		Rebounding
Kyle Kuric	12.7		4.2
Russ Smith	11.6		2.5
Chris Smith	9.7		3.6
Chane Behanan	9.5		7.4
Gorgui Dieng	9.2		9.0
Peyton Siva	9.1		3.2
Mike Marra	6.0		2.5
Rakeem Buckles	4.0		3.8
Jared Swopshire	3.4		2.9
Wayne Blackshear	2.0		1.2
Angel Nunez	2.0		0.7
Mark Jackson	1.7		1.0
Stephan Van Treese	1.3		2.0
Tim Henderson	1.3		0.8
Kevin Ware	1.0		0.7
Elisha Justice	1.0		0.4
Zach Price	0.6		0.8
Total……….	68.4		37.7
Opponents……	60.8		36.2

 

PiRate Criteria	UK	Pts	UL	Pts
Scoring Margin	17.3	8.7	7.6	3.8
Field Goal % Margin	11.3	5.7	4.5	2.3
Rebounding Margin	7.0	4.2	1.5	0.9
Turnover Margin	0.4	0.2	1.5	0.8
Steals	6.1		8.9
R + T *	8.70	3.5	5.08	2.0
Strength of Schedule ^	.5716	2.2	.5880	3.8
Road W-L #	90.0	4.5	73.7	2.5
TOTAL	UK:	29.0	UL:	16.1

 

Prediction: Kentucky 73  Louisville 66

Kentucky will take advantage of the size difference and force Louisville to take too many shots outside of their comfort zone.  The Wildcats will hold Louisville under 40% from the field, and they will control the boards to keep the Cardinals from getting many second chance shots.

 

Louisville must try to force Kentucky to turn the ball over, and the Cardinals will have to apply pressure while at the same time trying to force the ball out of the paint.  While the Cats may turn the ball over a little more than they normally do, Kentucky will get some easy stuff shots and close-in crips to counter.

 

 

#2MW Kansas (31-6) vs. #2E Ohio State (31-7)

 

Kansas Jayhawks

 

No.       Player                           Pos      Ht         Wt        Yr        HomeTown(Last Team)

 

0          Thomas Robinson          F          6-10      237       JR       Washington, D.C./Brewster [N.H.] Academy

 

1          Naadir Tharpe                G          5-11      170       FR       Worcester, Mass./Brewster [N.H.] Academy

 

2          Conner Teahan              G          6-06      212       SR       Leawood, Kan./Rockhurst HS

 

4          Justin Wesley                F          6-09      220       SO      Fort Worth,Texas/North CrowleyHS/Lamar

 

5          Jeff Withey                    C          7-00      235       JR       San Diego, Calif./Horizon HS

 

10         Tyshawn Taylor             G          6-03      185       SR      Hoboken, N.J./St. Anthony HS

 

15         Elijah Johnson               G          6-04      195       JR       Las Vegas,Nev./CheyenneHS

 

20         Niko Roberts                 G          5-11      175       SO       Huntington, N.Y./Saint Anthony’s HS

 

21         Christian Garrett            G          6-03      170       FR       Los Angeles,Calif./IMGAcademy

 

22         Merv Lindsay                 G          6-07      195       FR       MorenoValley,Calif./CanyonSpringsHigh School

 

23         Ben McLemore              G         6-05      185       FR        St. Louis,Mo./ChristianLifeCenter[Texas]

 

24         Travis Releford              G          6-06      207       JR       Kansas City,Mo./Bishop Miege HS

 

25         Jordan Juenemann         G          6-03      195       SR       Hays, Kan./Hays HS

 

31         Jamari Traylor               F          6-08      215       FR       Chicago,Ill./IMGAcademy[Fla.]

 

40         Kevin Young                  F          6-08      185       JR       Perris,Calif./Perris High School/Loyola Marymount

 

 

 

 

 

Coaches

 

 

 

Bill Self – Head Coach

 

Joe Dooley – Assistant Coach

 

Kurtis Townsend – Assistant Coach

 

Danny Manning – Assistant Coach

Results

Opponent	KU	Att.
Towson	100	54
(n) Kentucky	65	75
(n) Georgetown	67	63
(n) UCLA	72	56
(n) Duke	61	68
Florida Atlantic	77	54
South Florida	70	42
Long Beach St.	88	80
Ohio State	78	67
(n) Davidson	74	80
at Southern Cal	63	47
Howard	89	34
North Dakota	84	58
Kansas State	67	49
at Oklahoma	72	61
at Texas Tech	81	46
Iowa State	82	73
Baylor	92	74
at Texas	69	66
Texas A&M	64	54
at Iowa State	64	72
Oklahoma	84	62
at Missouri	71	74
at Baylor	68	54
Oklahoma State	81	66
at Kansas State	59	53
Texas Tech	83	50
at Texas A&M	66	58
Missouri	87	86
at Oklahoma State	70	58
Texas	73	63
vs.Texas A&M	83	66
vs. Baylor	72	81
ncaaDetroit	65	50
ncaa Purdue	63	60
ncaa North Carolina State	60	57
ncaa North Carolina	80	67

 

Statistics

Player	gp-gs	min	avg	fg-fga	fg%	3fg-fga	3fg%	ft-fta	ft%
Thomas Robinson	37-37	1169	31.6	247-482	.512	7-14	.500	154-226	.681
Tyshawn Taylor	37-36	1230	33.2	215-446	.482	57-148	.385	131-192	.682
Elijah Johnson	37-36	1190	32.2	137-322	.425	65-194	.335	32-46	.696
Jeff Withey	37-37	902	24.4	109-199	.548	0-0	.000	123-155	.794
Travis Releford	37-36	1138	30.8	113-226	.500	24-77	.312	63-98	.643
Conner Teahan	37-2	784	21.2	67-181	.370	50-147	.340	26-31	.839
Kevin Young	36-0	410	11.4	47-96	.490	3-9	.333	33-49	.673
Jordan Juenemann	15-1	47	3.1	8-18	.444	1-6	.167	2-6	.333
Justin Wesley	37-0	324	8.8	17-30	.567	0-0	.000	11-26	.423
Merv Lindsay	12-0	26	2.2	5-9	.556	1-3	.333	0-1	.000
Naadir Tharpe	32-0	175	5.5	11-38	.289	6-22	.273	1-2	.500
Niko Roberts	7-0	14	2.0	0-4	.000	0-1	.000	0-2	.000
Christian Garrett	7-0	15	2.1	0-0	.000	0-0	.000	0-0	.000
Anthony West	1-0	1	1.0	0-0	.000	0-0	.000	0-0	.000
Total……….	37	7425	200.7	976-2051	.476	214-621	.345	576-834	.691
Opponents……	37	7425	200.7	783-2061	.380	222-658	.337	490-685	.715
Player	Reb-O	Reb-D	Reb-Tot	Fl-DQ	a	to	blk	stl	pts
Thomas Robinson	105	333	438	104-2	71	101	34	41	655
Tyshawn Taylor	7	77	84	75-0	174	128	6	50	618
Elijah Johnson	14	100	114	87-2	134	65	2	54	371
Jeff Withey	77	153	230	93-1	28	44	129	22	341
Travis Releford	60	97	157	77-0	67	37	7	43	313
Conner Teahan	24	55	79	62-1	38	36	1	27	210
Kevin Young	48	58	106	57-0	23	27	14	20	130
Jordan Juenemann	1	7	8	4-0	2	2	1	1	19
Justin Wesley	26	33	59	69-1	1	11	14	6	45
Merv Lindsay	0	3	3	3-0	1	0	1	1	11
Naadir Tharpe	3	7	10	12-0	21	22	0	7	29
Niko Roberts	0	2	2	4-0	3	2	0	2	0
Christian Garrett	1	1	2	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Anthony West	0	0	0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	60	40	100
Total……….	426	966	1392	647-7	564	480	209	274	2744
Opponents……	397	786	1183	686-x	413	510	119	242	2278
Player	Scoring		Rebounding
Thomas Robinson	17.7		11.8
Tyshawn Taylor	16.7		2.3
Elijah Johnson	10.0		3.1
Jeff Withey	9.2		6.2
Travis Releford	8.5		4.2
Conner Teahan	5.7		2.1
Kevin Young	3.6		2.9
Jordan Juenemann	1.3		0.5
Justin Wesley	1.2		1.6
Merv Lindsay	0.9		0.3
Naadir Tharpe	0.9		0.3
Niko Roberts	0.0		0.3
Christian Garrett	0.0		0.3
Anthony West	0.0		0.0
Team			2.7
Total……….	74.2		37.6
Opponents……	61.6		32.0

 

Ohio State Buckeyes

NO	NAME	POS	HT	WT		CLASS					HOMETOWN
0	Jared Sullinger	F	6-9	265		SO					Columbus,OH
1	Deshaun Thomas	F	6-7	225		SO					Fort Wayne,IN
2	Jordan Sibert	G	6-4	185		SO					Cincinnati,OH
3	Shannon Scott	G	6-1	180		FR					Alpharetta,GA
4	Aaron Craft	G	6-2	190		SO					Findlay,OH
10	LaQuinton Ross	F	6-8	225		FR					Jackson,MS
12	Sam Thompson	F	6-7	190		FR					Chicago,IL
14	Alex Rogers	G	6-2	195		JR					Cincinnati,OH
15	J.D. Weatherspoon	F	6-6	215		SO					Columbus,OH
23	Amir Williams	C	6-11	220		FR					Birmingham,MI
30	Evan Ravenel	F	6-8	260		JR					Tampa,FL
32	Lenzelle Smith, Jr.	G	6-4	205		SO					Zion,IL
44	William Buford	G	6-6	220		SR					Toledo,OH
55	Trey McDonald	C	6-8	225		FR					Battle Creek,MI
Coaches
Thad Matta – Head Coach
Dave Dickerson – Associate Head Coach
Jeff Boals – Assistant Coach
Chris Jent – Assistant Coach

 

Results

Date	OSU	Opp
Wright State	73	42
Florida	81	74
Jackson State	85	41
North Florida	85	50
VMI	107	74
Valparaiso	80	47
Duke	85	63
Texas-Pan American	64	35
at Kansas	67	78
USC-Upstate	82	58
at South Carolina	74	66
Lamar	70	50
Miami (O)	69	40
Northwestern	87	54
at Indiana	70	74
Nebraska	71	40
at Iowa	76	47
at Illinois	74	79
Indiana	80	63
at Nebraska	79	45
Penn State	78	54
Michigan	64	49
at Wisconsin	58	52
Purdue	87	84
Michigan State	48	58
at Minnesota	78	68
at Michigan	51	56
Illinois	83	67
Wisconsin	60	63
at Northwestern	75	73
at Michigan State	72	70
Purdue	88	71
(n) Michigan	77	55
(n) Michigan State	64	68
ncaa Loyola (Md.)	78	59
ncaa Gonzaga	73	66
ncaa Cincinnati	81	66
ncaa Syracuse	77	70

 

Statistics

Player	gp-gs	min	avg	fg-fga	fg%	3fg-fga	3fg%	ft-fta	ft%
Jared Sullinger	36-35	1084	30.1	223-420	.531	16-38	.421	172-224	.768
Deshaun Thomas	38-38	1201	31.6	240-453	.530	49-138	.355	81-109	.743
William Buford	38-38	1285	33.8	199-479	.415	59-168	.351	90-109	.826
Aaron Craft	38-38	1215	32.0	111-219	.507	21-61	.344	91-128	.711
Lenzelle Smith, Jr	38-38	958	25.2	86-181	.470	29-77	.377	53-87	.609
Evan Ravenel	38-3	383	10.1	46-85	.541	0-0	.000	41-59	.695
J.D. Weatherspoon	25-0	157	6.3	29-47	.617	0-2	.000	18-31	.581
Jordan Sibert	24-0	273	11.4	24-79	.304	13-50	.260	10-18	.556
Sam Thompson	38-0	401	10.6	34-69	.493	1-14	.071	12-22	.545
LaQuinton Ross	9-0	35	3.9	5-15	.333	2-8	.250	6-7	.857
Amir Williams	28-0	188	6.7	19-36	.528	0-0	.000	10-28	.357
Shannon Scott	36-0	382	10.6	20-71	.282	1-18	.056	2-9	.222
Trey McDonald	13-0	38	2.9	1-6	.167	0-0	.000	0-0	.000
Total……….	38	7600	200.0	1037-2160	.480	191-574	.333	586-831	.705
Opponents……	38	7600	200.0	815-2006	.406	231-710	.325	408-585	.697
Player	Reb-O	Reb-D	Reb-Tot	Fl-DQ	a	to	blk	stl	pts
Jared Sullinger	110	219	329	106-1	44	69	36	42	634
Deshaun Thomas	98	107	205	61-0	34	46	9	15	610
William Buford	33	154	187	68-0	103	81	9	32	547
Aaron Craft	22	104	126	94-2	178	82	7	95	334
Lenzelle Smith, Jr	51	125	176	74-0	76	46	5	34	254
Evan Ravenel	31	51	82	69-1	9	28	8	10	133
J.D. Weatherspoon	16	11	27	8-0	4	8	4	6	76
Jordan Sibert	5	28	33	21-0	18	14	1	11	71
Sam Thompson	10	30	40	34-0	27	19	14	7	81
LaQuinton Ross	0	4	4	5-0	1	3	0	0	18
Amir Williams	27	35	62	23-0	2	8	23	4	48
Shannon Scott	4	34	38	47-0	60	36	2	18	43
Trey McDonald	3	3	6	3-0	1	4	0	0	2
Team	45	50	95	3		3
Total……….	455	955	1410	613-4	557	447	118	274	2851
Opponents……	315	802	1117	717-16	383	562	109	187	2269
Player	Scoring		Rebounding
Jared Sullinger	17.6		9.1
Deshaun Thomas	16.1		5.4
William Buford	14.4		4.9
Aaron Craft	8.8		3.3
Lenzelle Smith, Jr	6.7		4.6
Evan Ravenel	3.5		2.2
J.D. Weatherspoon	3.0		1.1
Jordan Sibert	3.0		1.4
Sam Thompson	2.1		1.1
LaQuinton Ross	2.0		0.4
Amir Williams	1.7		2.2
Shannon Scott	1.2		1.1
Trey McDonald	0.2		0.5
Team			2.5
Total……….	75.0		37.1
Opponents……	59.7		29.4

 

PiRate Criteria Scores

PiRate Criteria	KU	Pts	OSU	Pts
Scoring Margin	12.6	6.3	15.3	7.7
Field Goal % Margin	9.6	4.8	7.4	3.7
Rebounding Margin	5.6	3.4	7.7	4.6
Turnover Margin	0.8	0.4	3.0	1.5
Steals	7.4		7.2
R + T *	8.04	3.2	12.74	5.1
Strength of Schedule ^	.5858	3.6	.5890	3.9
Road W-L #	71.4	2.0	72.2	2.0
TOTAL	KU:	23.7	OSU:	28.5

Prediction: Ohio State 75  Kansas 69

We expect this game to stay close for most of the 40 minutes.  These teams are evenly matched, and Ohio State enjoys only subtle advantages in this game.  The Buckeyes are a tad better at rebounding and turnover margin, and we show OSU with about five extra scoring opportunities in this game

 

 

 

* R+T is the PiRate Ratings’ estimate of the margin of extra scoring opportunities per game for each team.  The formula is: (Rebounding Margin) + (0.2 *  Avg. Steals Per Game) + (1.2 * Turnover Margin).  The result shows how many more scoring opportunities the team gets than its opponents.  If the R+T is 10, that means a team averages 10 more scoring opportunities per game over its opponents.

 

^ Strength of Schedule is taken from the RPI ratings from CBS Sports.

 

# Road W-L% includes true road games and neutral site games.