The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 24, 2012

NCAA Men’s Tournament Elite 8 Preview

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:23 am

Welcome back to the PiRate Ratings’ Bracketnomics.  A quick tutorial about Bracketnomics:  We have studied numerous statistical factors of all Final Four Teams from the 1950’s until 2011.  We isolated the statistical similarities of those teams and found certain shared statistical characteristics.  For the last eight years, we have been applying it to the NCAA teams trying to discover which ones shared these same statistics as the Final Four teams of yesteryear.  In five of the last seven years, we were pretty spot on with our selections.  For instance, in 2009, when Kentucky, Kansas, and Ohio State were listed as the heavy tri-favorites, our system showed Duke to be the top-rated team.  We went with Duke even though the Blue Devils were not being highly considered.  Now admittedly, we did not see Butler coming through to the Finals that year, or last year either, but we did rate Butler as one to watch to get to the Elite 8.

 

 

If you want all the details behind our PiRate Criteria Score, please refer to our Bracketnomics 505, 2012 edition at: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2012/03/10/bracketnomics-505-2012-edition/

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Six of the eight remaining teams in the Big Dance own 30 or more wins.  All of the sleepers are gone, and this is one of the strongest quarterfinals in years.

 

Here are the PiRate Criteria Scores for each of the Elite 8

 

 

 

Team

Pts

FG% Diff

Reb

TO

R+T

SOS

Rd W-L

Total

Baylor

5.0

2.70

3.3

0.2

3.0

3.6

4.0

21.8

Florida

5.7

1.90

1.7

0.9

2.5

2.2

0.5

15.4

Kansas

6.5

4.95

3.4

0.4

3.2

3.6

2.0

24.0

Kentucky

8.8

5.85

4.4

0.2

3.6

2.2

4.5

29.5

Louisville

3.8

2.30

1.0

0.6

1.9

3.8

2.5

15.8

North Carolina

7.6

3.35

6.2

0.9

5.5

4.5

4.0

32.0

Ohio St.

7.8

4.00

4.6

1.5

5.0

3.9

2.0

28.8

Syracuse

7.0

4.15

-0.9

2.9

2.9

2.4

4.5

23.0

 

 

All times Eastern Daylight Time

 

Saturday, March 24

 

East Regional: Boston

Announcers: Verne Lundquist, Bill “Man-to-Man” Raftery, and Lesley Visser

Network: CBS

 

4:30 PM

#1 Syracuse (34-2) vs. #2 Ohio State (30-7)

PiRate Criteria Score:  Syr 20.5  OSU 28.8

Syracuse criteria score now includes the loss of Fab Melo

 

Syracuse will feel the effect of not having Melo for this game.  Ohio State will enjoy a decisive advantage on the boards, and the Buckeyes will be able to take care of the ball, thus thwarting Syracuse’s number one asset.

 

We do not see this game getting out of hand, and we believe the Orangemen will stay within contention.  However, the Buckeyes are too strong inside, and this game will be decided in the paint.

 

Prediction: Ohio State 74  Syracuse 69

 

West Regional: Phoenix

Announcers: Kevin Harlan, Reggie Miller, Len Elmore, and Marty Snider

Network: TBS

 

7:05 PM

#4 Louisville (29-9) vs. #7 Florida (26-10)

PiRate Criteria Score: UL 15.8  Florida 15.4

 

It’s teacher vs. student in this pure tossup game.  The PiRate Criteria scores differ by just 0.4, which means we believe this game to be a 50-50 proposition.  The only reason we are going with the Cardinals is that they are the team with the 0.4 point advantage.

 

Both teams share minor advantages in different Criteria areas.  Florida has a small advantage in scoring margin, rebounding margin, and turnover margin.  Louisville has a small advantage in field goal margin, steals, strength of schedule, and record away from home.

 

Prediction: Louisville 65  Florida 64 OT

 

Friday, March 23, 2012

 

South Regional: Atlanta

Announcers: Jim Nantz, Clark Kellogg, and Tracy Wolfson

Network: CBS

 

2:20 PM

#1 Kentucky (35-2) vs. #3 Baylor (30-7)

PiRate Criteria Score: UK 29.5  BU 21.8 

 

Baylor actually matches up quite well with Kentucky, but with North Carolina not at 100%, the Wildcats are the class of the remaining octet.

 

Both teams own double-digit scoring margins, but Kentucky has the highest in the field at 17.6.  The Wildcats’ field goal margin difference is +11.7, which is very indicative of a Final Four team.  The Blue Misters’ rebounding margin is 7.3, to 5.5 for Baylor.  Turnover margin is the same for both teams, while Baylor owns a slight advantage in the steals department and a slightly tougher strength of schedule.

 

Prediction: Kentucky 80  Baylor 71   

 

Midwest Regional: St. Louis

Announcers: Marv “Yessss” Albert, Steve Kerr, and Craig Sager

Network: TBS

 

5:05 PM

#1 North Carolina (32-5) vs. #2 Kansas (30-6)

PiRate Criteria Score: UNC 32.0 *  KU 24.0

* Without Kendall Marshall, the Tar Heels’ score drops by 12.5 points to 19.5; this assumes that John Henson has no ill effects left from his injury.

 

As of this writing on late Friday night, it does not look like Kendall Marshall will be able to play in this game, and even if he plays, he will not dish for 10 assists, and he will commit a couple of extra turnovers.

 

Even if Marshall plays, we are going with the Jayhawks to beat the team we picked to win it all before the tournament started.  Missing a 100% Marshall is like the New York Giants playing in the Super Bowl without Eli Manning.

 

Prediction: Kansas 69  North Carolina 62

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