The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 8, 2012

NCAA College Basketball Tournaments–March 8 Update

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:06 am

Here is the up-to-date (as of Wednesday Night, March 7) results of all conference tournaments as well as the pairings for today’s games.

 

America East

Preliminary Round

#9 Binghamton 73  #8 Md.-Balt. Co. 67

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Stony Brook 78  # 9 Binghamton 69

#4 Albany 63  #5 New Hampshire 45

#2 Vermont 50  #7 Maine 40

#6 Hartford 53  #3 Boston U 49 

 

Semifinals

#1 Stony Brook 57  #4 Albany 55

#2 Vermont 77  #6 Hartford 73 2OT

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Stony Brook (21-8) vs. Vermont (22-11)

 

This is a one-bid league.

 

A C C

Opening Round

#8 Maryland (16-14) vs. #9 Wake Forest (13-17)

#5 North Carolina St. (20-11) vs. #12 Boston College (9-21)

#7 Clemson (16-14) vs. #10 Virginia Tech (15-16)

#6 Miami (FL) (18-11) vs. #11 Georgia Tech (11-19)

 

At-Large: North Carolina, Duke, Florida St., Virginia

Upper Bubble: North Carolina St.

Lower Bubble: Virginia

 

Atlantic Sun

Quarterfinals

#1 Belmont 76  #8 Jacksonville 62

#4 East Tennessee 68  #5 N. Florida 66

#2 Mercer 61  #7 Lipscomb 53

#6 Florida Gulf Coast 71  #3 S. Carolina Upstate 61

 

Semifinals

#1 Belmont 69  #4 East Tennessee 61

#6 Florida Gulf Coast 62 #2 Mercer 58

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Belmont 83  Florida Gulf Coast 69

 

Automatic Bid – BELMONT 27-7

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

 

Atlantic 10

1st Round

#8 Massachusetts 92  #9 Duquesne 83

#5 St. Joe’s 80  #12 Charlotte 64

#7 LaSalle 80  #10 Richmond 72

#6 Dayton 67  #11 George Washington 50

 

Quarterfinals (Friday, March 9)

#1 Temple (24-6) vs. #8 Massachusetts (21-10)

#4 St. Bonaventure (17-11) vs. #5 St. Joe’s (20-12)

#2 St. Louis (24-6) vs. #7 LaSalle (21-11)

#3 Xavier (19-11) vs. #6 Dayton (20-11)

 

At-Large: Temple

Upper Bubble: St. Louis

Lower Bubble: Xavier, St. Joe’s, and Dayton

 

The eight remaining teams in this tournament are not that far apart, and the final three days should be highly competitive.  Literally, any of this octet can cut down the nets in Atlantic City on Sunday.

 

Big East

Opening Round

#9 Connecticut 81  #16 Dayton 67

#13 Pittsburgh 73  #12 St. John’s 59

#10 Seton Hall 79  #15 Providence 47

#14 Villanova 70  #11 Rutgers 49

 

2nd Round

#9 Connecticut 71  #8 West Virginia 67 OT

#5 Georgetown 64  #13 Pittsburgh 52

#7 Louisville 61 #10 Seton Hall 55

#6 South Florida 56  #14 Villanova 47

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Syracuse (30-1) vs. #9 Connecticut (20-12)

#4 Cincinnati (22-9) vs. #5 Georgetown (23-7)

#2 Marquette (25-6) vs. #7 Louisville (23-9)

#3 Notre Dame (21-10) vs. #6 South Florida (19-12)

 

At-Large: Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville, Cincinnati

Upper Bubble: West Virginia, Seton Hall, South Florida, Connecticut

Lower Bubble: None

 

Can the Huskies do it again?  After winning five games in five days last year, UConn has now won two games in two days.  An upset over the top-seeded Orangemen just may make UConn the odds-on favorite to repeat the feat.

 

Big Sky

Quarterfinals

#3 Portland St. 75  #6 Montana St. 53

#4 Eastern Washington 81  #5 Idaho St. 75

 

Semifinals

#1 Montana 74  #4 Eastern Washington 66

#2 Weber St. 69 #3 Portland St. 63

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Montana 85 #2 Weber St. 66

 

Automatic Bid: MONTANA 25-6

At-Large: None

Bubble: None

 

This is a one-bid league, but both Montana and Weber State are talented enough to win an opening round game in the NCAA Tournament. With an RPI around 70, the Wildcats are probably not on the bubble.

 

Big South

Preliminary Round

#8 High Point 68  #9 Gardner-Webb 58

#7 VMI 55  #10 Radford 53

 

Quarterfinals

#1 UNC-Asheville 86  #8 High Point 61

#4 Charleston Sou. 88  #5 Liberty 74

#6 Winthrop 71  #3 Campbell 55

#7 VMI 85  #2 Coastal Carolina 68

 

Semifinals

#1 UNC-Asheville 91  #4 Charleston Sou. 64

#7 VMI 75  #6 Winthrop 55

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 UNC-Asheville  80  #7 VMI 64

 

Automatic Bid – UNC-ASHEVILLE 24-9

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

 

Big Ten

Opening Round

#8 Iowa (16-15) vs. #9 Illinois (17-14)

#5 Indiana (24-7) vs. #12 Penn State (12-19)

#7 Northwestern (18-12) vs. #10 Minnesota (18-13)

#6 Purdue (20-11) vs. #11 Nebraska (12-17)

 

At-Large: Ohio St., Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue

Upper Bubble: Northwestern

Lower Bubble: None (Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois have too much ground to make up and need to win the tournament.  The three teams have no chance of sneaking in with a loss in the Championship Game).

 

Big 12

Opening Round

#9 Texas A&M 62  #8 Oklahoma 53

#7 Oklahoma St. 76  #10 Texas Tech 60

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Kansas (26-5) vs. #9 Texas A&M (14-17)

#4 Baylor (25-6) vs. #5 Kansas St. (21-9)

#2 Missouri (27-4) vs. #7 Oklahoma St. (15-17)

#3 Iowa St. (22-9) vs. #6 Texas (19-12)

 

At-Large: Kansas, Missouri, Iowa St., Baylor, Kansas St.

Upper Bubble: Texas

Lower Bubble: None (If Texas loses to Iowa St., the Longhorns could fall here.

 

Big West

Quarterfinals

#1 Long Beach St. (22-8) vs. #8 UC-Davis (5-25)

#4 Cal Poly SLO (17-14) vs. #5 UC-Riverside (14-16)

#2 Cal State Fullerton (21-8) vs. #7 UC_Irvine (11-19)

#3 U C S B (18-9) vs. #6 Pacific (11-18)

 

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: Long Beach St.

Lower Bubble: None

 

Long Beach State played one of the hardest schedules in the nation and fared admirably.  Their body of work gives the 49ers the look of a NCAA Tournament team.  A loss to Cal State Fullerton in the Championship Game should still keep LBSU safe.  A loss in the earlier rounds will throw the 49ers down to the lower bubble.

 

 

Colonial Athletic

Opening Round

#9 UNC-Wilmington 70  #8 James Madison 59

#5 Delaware 72  #12 Towson St. 65

#6 Georgia St. 85  #11 Hofstra 50

#7 Northeastern 57  #10 William & Mary 49

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Drexel 59  #9 UNC-Wilmington 47

#4 Old Dominion 88  #5 Delaware 74

#3 George Mason 61  #6 Georgia St. 59

#2 Virginia Commonwealth 75  #10 William & Mary 65

 

Semifinals

#1 Drexel 68  #4 Old Dominion 51

#2 Virginia Commonwealth 74  #3 George Mason 64

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Virginia Commonwealth 59 #1 Drexel 56

 

Automatic Bid – VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 28-6

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – Drexel

 

 

Drexel has a chance of earning an at-large bid, but their RPI is on the low side at 68.

 

Conference USA

Opening Round

#5 U A B 72  #12 Tulane 64

#8 U T E P 67 #9 Houston 62 OT

#10 East Carolina 68  #7 Rice 66 

#6 Marshall 74  #11 S M U 56

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Memphis (23-8) vs. #8 U T E P (15-16)

#4 Central Florida (21-9) vs. #5 U A B (14-15)

#2 Southern Mississippi (24-7) vs. #10 East Carolina (15-15)

#3 Tulsa (17-13) vs. #6 Marshall (19-12)

 

At-Large: Memphis

Upper Bubble: Southern Miss

Lower Bubble: None

 

Central Florida has a chance to move up to the lower bubble with a run to the finals, but it would still be a remote shot if they lost in the Championship Game.

 

Horizon League

Opening Round

#4 Milwaukee 68  #9 Illinois-Chi. 55

#5 Butler 70  #8 Wright St. 52

#3 Detroit 80  #10 Loyola (Chi) 71

#6 Youngstown 77  #7 Green Bay 60

 

Quarterfinals

#5 Butler 71 #4 Milwaukee 49

#3 Detroit 93 #6 Youngstown St. 76

 

Semifinals

#1 Valparaiso 65  #5 Butler 46

#3 Detroit 63  #2 Cleveland St. 58

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#3 Detroit 70  #1 Valparaiso 50

 

Automatic Bid – DETROIT 22-13

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

 

This is a one-bid league.  Neither Valpo, Cleveland State nor Butler will  earn at-large bids.

 

M A A C

Preliminary Round

#8 Marist 64 #9 St. Peter’s 57

#7 Niagara 80 #10 Canisius 70

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Iona 87  #8 Marist 63

#4 Fairfield 65  #5 Rider 63

#2 Loyola (MD) 86  #7 Niagara 73

#6 Siena 84  #3 Manhattan 82

 

Semifinals

#4 Fairfield 85  #1 Iona 75

#2 Loyola (MD) 70  #6 Siena 60

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Loyola (MD) 48  #4 Fairfield 44

 

Automatic Bid – LOYOLA (MD) 24-8

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

 

This is a one-bid league.  Iona played their way out of the Big Dance and into the NIT.

 

M A C

Opening Round

#5 Eastern Michigan (14-17) vs. #12 Northern Illinois (4-25)

#8 Western Michigan (12-19) vs. #9 Ball St. (15-14)

#7 Toledo (16-15) vs. #10 (Miami (O) (9-20)

#6 Bowling Green (16-14) vs. #11 (Central Michigan (10-20)

 

2nd Round

#8 Western Michigan 71  #12 Northern Illinois 54

#7 Toledo 75  #11 Central Michigan 72

 

Quarterfinals

#4 Kent St. (20-10) vs. #8 Western Michigan (13-19)

#3 Ohio (24-7) vs. #7 Toledo (17-15)

This could develop into a two-bid league.  Akron has moved up to #62 in the RPI and Ohio is #70.  Akron has one more bye to the semifinals and will face the winner of the Kent St.-Western Michigan game.

 

M E A C

Opening Round

#8 Hampton 69 #9 Morgan St. 65

#5 North Carolina Central 60 #12 Md. Eastern Shore 43

#4 Bethune-Cookman 62 #13 South Carolina St. 53

#11 Florida A& M 74  #6 Coppin St. 72

#10 Howard 51  #7 North Carolina A&T 50

 

Quarterfinals

#8 Hampton 59  #1 Savannah St. 46

#4 Bethune-Cookman (16-16) vs. #5 North Carolina Central (17-14)

#2 Norfolk St. 71 #7 Howard 61

#3 Delaware St. (15-13) vs. #11 Florida A&M (9-22)

 

This is a one-bid league.  With Savannah State suffering an early exit, only Norfolk State can win the automatic bid and avoid a trip to Dayton for the first round.

 

Missouri Valley

Opening Round

#8 Indiana St. 66  #9 Southern Illinois 51

#7 Drake 65  #10 Bradley 49

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Wichita St. 72 #8 Indiana St. 48

#4 Illinois St. 54 #5 Northern Iowa 42

#2 Creighton 68 vs. #7 Drake 61

#3 Evansville 72 vs. #6 Missouri St. 64

 

Semifinals

#4 Illinois St. 65  #1 Wichita St. 64

#2 Creighton 99  #3 Evansville 71

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Creighton 83  #4 Illinois St. 79 OT

 

Automatic Bid – Creighton 27-5

At-Large – Wichita St. 27-5

Bubble – None

 

Mountain West

Quarterfinals

#1 San Diego St. (24-6) vs. #8 Boise St. (13-16)

#4 Colorado St. (19-10) vs. #5 T C U (17-13)

#2 New Mexico (24-6) vs. #7 Air Force (13-15)

#3 U N L V (25-7) vs. #6 Wyoming (20-10)

 

At-Large: San Diego St., UNLV, New Mexico

Upper Bubble: Colorado St.

Lower Bubble: None

 

TCU and Wyoming lost too many times in February.  Both teams can only get there by earning the automatic bid.  Colorado State can secure a bid with a win over T C U.

 

Northeast

Quarterfinals

#1 Long Island 80  #8 Sacred Heart 68

#5 Quinnipiac 80  #4 St. Francis (NY) 72

#3 Robert Morris 87  #6 Monmouth 68

#2 Wagner 87  #7 Central Conn. St. 77

 

Semifinals

#1 Long Island 78 #5 Quinnipiac 75

#3 Robert Morris 71  #2 Wagner 64

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Long Island 90  #3 Robert Morris 73

 

Automatic Bid: LONG ISLAND 25-8

At-Large: None

Bubble: None

 

Wagner’s slim chances for getting in as a wildcard team went bye-bye with their semifinal loss to RMU.

 

LIU enters the Big Dance winning 20 of their last 22 games.

 

Ohio Valley

Opening Round

#5 Southeast Missouri 75  #8 E. Kentucky 65

#7 Jacksonville St. 75  #6 Austin Peay 70

 

Quarterfinals

#4 Tennessee Tech 77 #5 Southeast Missouri 73

#3 Morehead St. 68  #7 Jacksonville St. 54

 

Semifinals

#1 Murray St. 78  #4 Tennessee Tech 58

#2 Tennessee St. 59 #3 Morehead St. 52

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Murray St. 54  #2 Tennessee St. 52

 

Automatic Bid – Murray St. 30-1

At-Large – None

Bubble – None

 

Murray State should receive a #4 or #5 seed, a #6 at worst.

 

Pac-12

Opening Round

#9 Oregon St. 69  #8 Washington St. 64

#5 U C L A 55  #12 U S C 40

#7 Stanford 85  #10 Arizona St. 65

#6 Colorado 53  #11 Utah 41

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Washington (21-9) vs. #9 Oregon State (18-13)

#4 Arizona (21-10) vs. #5 U C L A (19-13)

#2 California (23-8) vs. #7 Stanford (20-10)

#3 Oregon (22-8) vs. #6 Colorado (20-11)

 

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: California, Washington, Arizona

Lower Bubble: Colorado

 

UCLA and Stanford could move to the lower bubble if they made it to the Championship Game and lost to one of the three current upper bubble teams. Colorado needs to win two games to have any chance at an at-large bid and may really need to reach the Championship Game to have a legitimate shot.  The Buffs’ RPI is 82; wins over Utah, Oregon, and Cal with a loss to Washington could elevate CU to around #65-70, and that is still iffy for an RPI ranking.

 

Patriot League

Quarterfinals

#1 Bucknell 87  #8 Navy 63

#5 Lafayette 84  #4 Holy Cross 76

#2 Lehigh 70 #7 Colgate 57

#3 American 57  #6 Army 40

 

Semifinals

#1 Bucknell 79 #5 Lafayette 52

#2 Lehigh 85 #3 American 66

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Lehigh 82  #1 Bucknell 77  

 

Automatic Bid: LEHIGH 26-7

At-Large: None

Bubble: None

 

The Mountain Hawks search for the first NCAA Tournament win in their fifth trip to the Big Dance, and they have the one-two punch in C J McCollum and Gabe Knutson.  Lehigh lost at Michigan State by just nine points earlier in the year, and they enter the NCAA Tournament having won eight games in a row and 12 of 13.

 

Southern

Opening Round

#5N Appalachian St. 93  #4S College of Charleston 81

#3N Western Carolina 68  #6S Citadel 56

#5S Furman 75  #4N Samford 66

#3S Georgia Southern 76  #6N Chattanooga 70

 

Quarterfinals

#1N UNC-Greensboro 65  #5N Appalachian St. 55

#3N Western Carolina 82 #2S Wofford 59

#1S Davidson 73  #5S Furman 54

#2N Elon 65  #3S Georgia Southern 58

 

Semifinals

#3N Western Carolina 82  #1N UNC-Greensboro 77

#1S Davidson 83  #2N Elon 67

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1S Davidson  93 #1N UNC-Greensboro 91

 

Automatic Bid – DAVIDSON 25-7

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

 

 

Davidson might not have earned a ticket as an at-large team.  Tell that to Kansas coach Bill Self, and he would say you were crazy.

 

S E C

Opening Round

#8 L S U (17-13) vs. #9 Arkansas (18-13)

#5 Alabama (20-10) vs. #12 South Carolina (10-20)

#7 Ole Miss (18-12) vs. #10 Auburn (15-15)

#6 Mississippi St. (21-10) vs. #11 Georgia (14-16)

 

At-Large: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt

Upper Bubble: Alabama, Mississippi St.

Lower Bubble: Tennessee, Ole Miss

 

Tennessee and Ole Miss are the two hot teams other than Kentucky as the tournament commences.  Should one of these teams make it to Sunday, it would be hard to keep them out of the field.

 

Southland

Quarterfinals

#1 UT-Arlington 96  #8 Nicholls St. 48

#4 McNeese St. 78  #5 TX-San Antonio 74 OT

#2 Stephen F Austin 68  #7 Sam Houston 46

#3 Lamar 76  #6 Northwestern State (LA) 69

 

Semifinals

#1 UT-Arlington (24-7) vs. #4 McNeese St. (16-14)

#2 Stephen F Austin (20-11) vs. #3 Lamar (21-11)

 

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: None

Lower Bubble: None

 

Texas-Arlington ran away from the field in the regular season standings, but the Mavericks did not run teams out of the gym like they did against Nicholls State yesterday.  UT-A is no shoo-in to cop the conference tournament.  SF Austin is a worthy competitor, as is Lamar.

 

S W A C

Quarterfinals

#1 Mississippi Valley St. 63  #8 Jackson St. 60

#4 Alabama St. (12-18) vs. #5 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (10-21)

#2 Texas Southern 75  #7 Alabama A&M 62

#3 Prairie View (14-17) vs. #6 Alcorn St. (9-21)

 

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: None

Lower Bubble: None

 

In a conference where half of the members lost 20 or more games and 80% had losing records, there is a high probability that the winner of the league’s automatic bid will be playing in Dayton in the opening round.  The top two seeds advanced Wednesday and receive a day off until the semifinals.

 

Summit League

Quarterfinals

#1 Oral Roberts 71  #8 I P F W 67

#4 Western Illinois 58  #5 North Dakota St. 53

#2 South Dakota St. 77  I U P U I 56

#6 Southern Utah 84  #3 Oakland 82

 

Semifinals

#4 Western Illinois 54  #1 Oral Roberts 53

#2 South Dakota St. 63  #6 Southern Utah 47

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 South Dakota St. 52  #4 Western Illinois 50

Automatic Bid – SOUTH DAKOTA ST. 27-7

At-Large Teams –None

Bubble – Oral Roberts

               

Had South Dakota St. and Oral Roberts advanced to the Championship Game, and Oral Roberts’ lost instead of losing to WIU in the semis, ORU would be on the at-large line and not the bubble.  With an RPI of 55, the Golden Eagles are in a precarious position. 

 

Sunbelt

Opening Round

#6 South Alabama 87  #11 Troy 81

#7 Western Kentucky 67 #10 Florida Int’l 63

#9 Arkansas St. 70 #8 Florida Atlantic 55

 

Quarterfinals

#9 Arkansas St. 64  #1 Middle Tennessee 61

#5 North Texas 65  #4 Louisiana-Lafayette 62

#7 Western Kentucky 68  #2 U A L R  63 

#3 Denver 61  #6 South Alabama 50

 

Semifinals

#5 North Texas 76  #9 Arkansas St. 72

#7 Western Kentucky 67  #3 Denver 63

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#7 Western Kentucky 74  #3 Denver 70

 

Automatic Bid –WESTERN KENTUCKY 15-18

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – Middle Tennessee

 

This is probably a one-bid league. The top two seeds lost in their first games in this unique tournament played in two separate gyms in the same building.  Middle Tennessee may still be on the bubble with an RPI of 65, but they are more than likely headed to the NIT.  Western Kentucky will be headed to the first round in Dayton.  However, their 15-18 record is very misleading.  The Hilltoppers were supposed to contend for the regular season championship; however, major dissension led to a poor start and a dismissal of head coach Ken McDonald.  Since Ray Harper assumed command, WKU has sported a 10-7 record, and a 7-4 finish.  This team cannot be overlooked in Dayton and could very well advance to the second round.

 

W A C

#1 Nevada (25-5) vs. #8 San Jose St. (9-21)

#4 Utah St. (17-14) vs. #5 Louisiana Tech (16-15)

#2 New Mexico St. (23-9) vs. #7 Fresno St. (13-19)

#3 Idaho (18-12) vs. #6 Hawaii (15-15)

 

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: None

Lower Bubble: Nevada

 

For Nevada to earn an at-large bid, all of the major conference tournaments need to be one by high seeds without any other lower bubble teams making a splash.

 

The dark horse here is Utah State.  The 4th-seeded Aggies have been there before and must be respected as a well-coached team that knows how to win.

 

West Coast

Opening Round

#8 Portland 74 #9 Santa Clara 70

 

2nd Round

#5 San Francisco 87  #8 Portland 66

#6 San Diego 76  #7 Pepperdine 54

 

Quarterfinals

#5 San Francisco 67  #4 Loyola Marymount 60

#3 B Y U 73 vs. #6 San Diego 68

 

Semifinals

#1 Saint Mary’s 83  #5 San Francisco 78

#2 Gonzaga 77  #3 B Y U 58

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Saint Mary’s 78  #2 Gonzaga 74 OT

 

Automatic Bid – SAINT MARY’S 26-5

At-Large Teams – Gonzaga

Bubble – B Y U

 

This has the look of a three-bid league, with the two behemoths and BYU all headed to the Big Dance.  Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga are now the true powers of the West.  If you remember UCLA versus USC or Oregon State in the 1970’s and 1980’s, this is what this rivalry has become.  Both teams could easily advance to the Elite 8.

Coming Sometime Before Sunday–A renewable of PiRate Bracketnomics, a mechanical system using backtested data to determine which teams have Final Four resumes. 

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