The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 5, 2012

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 5 Update

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:59 am

Here is an updated look at tournament action to date with the dates and matchups for their next round.  This includes all games played through Sunday, March 4.

 

America East

Preliminary Round

#9 Binghamton 73  #8 Md.-Balt. Co. 67

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Stony Brook 78  # 9 Binghamton 69

#4 Albany 63  #5 New Hampshire 45

#2 Vermont 50  #7 Maine 40

#6 Hartford 53  #3 Boston U 49 

 

Semifinals

#1 Stony Brook 57  #4 Albany 55

#2 Vermont 77  #6 Hartford 73 2OT

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Stony Brook (21-8) vs. Vermont (22-11)

 

This is a one-bid league.

 

 

Atlantic Sun

Quarterfinals

#1 Belmont 76  #8 Jacksonville 62

#4 East Tennessee 68  #5 N. Florida 66

#2 Mercer 61  #7 Lipscomb 53

#6 Florida Gulf Coast 71  #3 S. Carolina Upstate 61

 

Semifinals

#1 Belmont 69  #4 East Tennessee 61

#6 Florida Gulf Coast 62 #2 Mercer 58

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Belmont 83  Florida Gulf Coast 69

 

Automatic Bid – BELMONT 27-7

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

 

Big Sky

Quarterfinals

#3 Portland St. 75  #6 Montana St. 53

#4 Eastern Washington 81  #5 Idaho St. 75

 

Semifinals (Tuesday)

#1 Montana (23-6) vs. #4 Eastern Washington (15-16)

#2 Weber St. (23-5) vs. #3 Portland St. 17-13

 

This is a one-bid league, but both Montana and Weber State are talented enough to win an opening round game in the NCAA Tournament.

 

Big South

Preliminary Round

#8 High Point 68  #9 Gardner-Webb 58

#7 VMI 55  #10 Radford 53

 

Quarterfinals

#1 UNC-Asheville 86  #8 High Point 61

#4 Charleston Sou. 88  #5 Liberty 74

#6 Winthrop 71  #3 Campbell 55

#7 VMI 85  #2 Coastal Carolina 68

 

Semifinals

#1 UNC-Asheville 91  #4 Charleston Sou. 64

#7 VMI 75  #6 Winthrop 55

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 UNC-Asheville  80  #7 VMI 64

 

Automatic Bid – UNC-ASHEVILLE 24-9

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

 

Colonial Athletic

Opening Round

#9 UNC-Wilmington 70  #8 James Madison 59

#5 Delaware 72  #12 Towson St. 65

#6 Georgia St. 85  #11 Hofstra 50

#7 Northeastern 57  #10 William & Mary 49

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Drexel 59  #9 UNC-Wilmington 47

#4 Old Dominion 88  #5 Delaware 74

#3 George Mason 61  #6 Georgia St. 59

#2 Virginia Commonwealth 75  #10 William & Mary 65

 

Semifinals

#1 Drexel 68  #4 Old Dominion 51

#2 Virginia Commonwealth 74  #3 George Mason 64

 

CHAMPIONSHIP (Monday)

#1 Drexel (26-5) vs. #2 Virginia Commonwealth (26-6)

 

The loser of this game should stand a decent chance of earning an at-large bid.

 

Horizon League

Opening Round

#4 Milwaukee 68  #9 Illinois-Chi. 55

#5 Butler 70  #8 Wright St. 52

#3 Detroit 80  #10 Loyola (Chi) 71

#6 Youngstown 77  #7 Green Bay 60

 

Quarterfinals

#5 Butler 71 #4 Milwaukee 49

#3 Detroit 93 #6 Youngstown St. 76

 

Semifinals

#1 Valparaiso 65  #5 Butler 46

#3 Detroit 63  #2 Cleveland St. 58

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Valparaiso (22-10) vs. #3 Detroit (21-13) – Tuesday, March 6

 

This is a one-bid league.  Neither Valpo, Cleveland State nor Butler will  earn at-large bids.

 

M A A C

Preliminary Round

#8 Marist 64 #9 St. Peter’s 57

#7 Niagara 80 #10 Canisius 70

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Iona 87  #8 Marist 63

#4 Fairfield 65  #5 Rider 63

#2 Loyola (MD) 86  #7 Niagara 73

#6 Siena 84  #3 Manhattan 82

 

Semifinals

#4 Fairfield 85  #1 Iona 75

#2 Loyola (MD) 70  #6 Siena 60

 

CHAMPIONSHIP (Monday)

#2 Loyola (MD) (22-8) vs. #4 Fairfield (18-13)

 

This is a one-bid league.  Iona played their way out of the Big Dance and into the NIT.

 

M A C

Opening Round (Monday)

#5 Eastern Michigan (14-17) vs. #12 Northern Illinois (4-25)

#8 Western Michigan (12-19) vs. #9 Ball St. (15-14)

#7 Toledo (16-15) vs. #10 (Miami (O) (9-20)

#6 Bowling Green (16-14) vs. #11 (Central Michigan (10-20)

 

This is a one-bid league.  The top five teams are in the East Division.

 

M E A C

Opening Round (Monday)

#8 Hampton (10-20) vs. #9 Morgan St. (9-19)

#5 North Carolina Central (16-14) vs. #12 Md. Eastern Shore (7-22)

#4 Bethune-Cookman (15-16) vs. #13 South Carolina St. (5-25)

#6 Coppin St. (14-15) vs. #11 Florida A&M (8-22)

#7 North Carolina A&T (12-19) vs. #10 Howard (10-20)

 

This is a one-bid league.  If Savannah St. or Norfolk St. win the tournament, there is a chance for the winner to avoid the opening round in Dayton.

 

 

Missouri Valley

Opening Round

#8 Indiana St. 66  #9 Southern Illinois 51

#7 Drake 65  #10 Bradley 49

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Wichita St. 72 #8 Indiana St. 48

#4 Illinois St. 54 #5 Northern Iowa 42

#2 Creighton 68 vs. #7 Drake 61

#3 Evansville 72 vs. #6 Missouri St. 64

 

Semifinals

#4 Illinois St. 65  #1 Wichita St. 64

#2 Creighton 99  #3 Evansville 71

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Creighton 83  #4 Illinois St. 79 OT

 

Automatic Bid – Creighton 27-5

At-Large – Wichita St. 27-5

Bubble – None

 

Northeast

Quarterfinals

#1 Long Island 80  #8 Sacred Heart 68

#5 Quinnipiac 80  #4 St. Francis (NY) 72

#3 Robert Morris 87  #6 Monmouth 68

#2 Wagner 87  #7 Central Conn. St. 77

 

Semifinals

#1 Long Island 78 #5 Quinnipiac 75

#3 Robert Morris 71  #2 Wagner 64

 

CHAMPIONSHIP (Wednesday)

#1 Long Island (23-8) vs. #3 Robert Morris (23-9)

 

This is a one-bid league.

 

Ohio Valley

Opening Round

#5 Southeast Missouri 75  #8 E. Kentucky 65

#7 Jacksonville St. 75  #6 Austin Peay 70

 

Quarterfinals

#4 Tennessee Tech 77 #5 Southeast Missouri 73

#3 Morehead St. 68  #7 Jacksonville St. 54

 

Semifinals

#1 Murray St. 78  #4 Tennessee Tech 58

#2 Tennessee St. 59 #3 Morehead St. 52

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Murray St. 54  #2 Tennessee St. 52

 

Automatic Bid – Murray St. 30-1

At-Large – None

Bubble – None

 

Murray State should receive a #4 or #5 seed, a #6 at worst.

 

Patriot League

Quarterfinals

#1 Bucknell 87  #8 Navy 63

#5 Lafayette 84  #4 Holy Cross 76

#2 Lehigh 70 #7 Colgate 57

#3 American 57  #6 Army 40

 

Semifinals

#1 Bucknell 79 #5 Lafayette 52

#2 Lehigh 85 #3 American 66

 

CHAMPIONSHIP (Wednesday)

#1 Bucknell 24-8 vs. #2 Lehigh 25-7

 

This is a one-bid league.

 

Southern

Opening Round

#5N Appalachian St. 93  #4S College of Charleston 81

#3N Western Carolina 68  #6S Citadel 56

#5S Furman 75  #4N Samford 66

#3S Georgia Southern 76  #6N Chattanooga 70

 

Quarterfinals

#1N UNC-Greensboro 65  #5N Appalachian St. 55

#3N Western Carolina 82 #2S Wofford 59

#1S Davidson 73  #5S Furman 54

#2N Elon 65  #3S Georgia Southern 58

 

Semifinals

#3N Western Carolina 82  #1N UNC-Greensboro 77

#1S Davidson 83  #2N Elon 67

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1N UNC-Greensboro (13-19) vs. Davidson (24-7)

 

Davidson cannot get in as an at-large team, so Wildcats must win to dance.

 

Summit League

Quarterfinals

#1 Oral Roberts 71  #8 I P F W 67

#4 Western Illinois 58  #5 North Dakota St. 53

#2 South Dakota St. 77  I U P U I 56

#6 Southern Utah 84  #3 Oakland 82

 

Semifinals

#1 Oral Roberts (27-5) vs. #4 Western Illinois (16-13)

#2 South Dakota St. (25-7) vs. #6 Southern Utah (14-16)        

 

If South Dakota St. and Oral Roberts advance to the Championship Game, and Oral Roberts’ loses, we should see two invitations doled out to the Summit League. 

 

Sunbelt

Opening Round

#6 South Alabama 87  #11 Troy 81

#7 Western Kentucky 67 #10 Florida Int’l 63

#9 Arkansas St. 70 #8 Florida Atlantic 55

 

Quarterfinals

#9 Arkansas St. 64  #1 Middle Tennessee 61

#5 North Texas 65  #4 Louisiana-Lafayette 62

#7 Western Kentucky 68  #2 U A L R  63 

#3 Denver 61  #6 South Alabama 50

 

Semifinals

#5 North Texas (17-13) vs. #9 Arkansas St. (14-19)

#3 Denver (22-8) vs. #7 Western Kentucky (13-18)

 

This is a one-bid league. The top two seeds lost in their first games in this unique tournament played in two separate gyms in the same building.  Middle Tennessee may still be on the bubble, but they are more than likely headed to the NIT.  If Arkansas St. or Western Kentucky win this tournament, they will be headed to the first round in Dayton.

 

West Coast

Opening Round

#8 Portland 74 #9 Santa Clara 70

 

2nd Round

#5 San Francisco 87  #8 Portland 66

#6 San Diego 76  #7 Pepperdine 54

 

Quarterfinals

#5 San Francisco 67  #4 Loyola Marymount 60

#3 B Y U 73 vs. #6 San Diego 68

 

Semifinals

#1 Saint Mary’s 83  #5 San Francisco 78

#2 Gonzaga 77  #3 B Y U 58

 

CHAMPIONSHIP (Monday)

#1 Saint Mary’s 26-5 vs. #2 Gonzaga 25-5

 

This looks like a three-bid league, with the two finalists and BYU all headed to the Big Dance.

 

A Look At The Remaining Conferences

Atlantic 10

Tournament Begins March 6 on Campus Sites and moves to Atlantic City on March 9

At-Large: Temple

Upper Bubble: St. Louis

Lower Bubble: Xavier, St. Joe’s, and Dayton

 

A C C

Tournament Begins March 8 in Atlanta

At-Large: North Carolina, Duke, Florida St., Virginia

Upper Bubble: North Carolina St.

Lower Bubble: Virginia

 

Big East

Tournament Begins March 6 in New York City

At-Large: Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville, Cincinnati

Upper Bubble: West Virginia, Seton Hall, South Florida, Connecticut

Lower Bubble: None (Pitt is the only bottom half team with a chance to pull off five upsets and break through with an automatic bid.

 

Big Ten

Tournament Begins March 8 in Indianapolis

At-Large: Ohio St., Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue

Upper Bubble: Northwestern

Lower Bubble: None (Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois have too much ground to make up and need to win the tournament.  The three teams have no chance of sneaking in with a loss in the Championship Game).

 

Big 12

Tournament Begins March 7 in Kansas City

At-Large: Kansas, Missouri, Iowa St., Baylor, Kansas St.

Upper Bubble: Texas

Lower Bubble: None (A Texas loss in the quarterfinals would move the Longhorns here.

 

Big West

Tournament Begins March 8 in Anaheim

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: Long Beach St.

Lower Bubble: None

 

Long Beach State played one of the hardest schedules in the nation and fared admirably.  Their body of work gives the 49ers the look of a NCAA Tournament team.  A loss to Cal State Fullerton in the Championship Game should still keep LBSU safe.  A loss in the earlier rounds will throw the 49ers down to the lower bubble.

 

Conference USA

Tournament Begins March 7 in Memphis

At-Large: Memphis

Upper Bubble: Southern Miss

Lower Bubble: None

 

Central Florida has a chance to move up to the lower bubble with a run to the finals, but it would still be a remote shot if they lose in the Championship Game.

 

Mountain West

Tournament Begins March 6 in Las Vegas

At-Large: San Diego St., UNLV, New Mexico

Upper Bubble: Colorado St.

Lower Bubble: None

 

TCU and Wyoming lost too many times in February.  Both teams can only get there by earning the automatic bid.

 

Pac-12

Tournament Begins March 7 in Los Angeles

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: California, Washington, Arizona

Lower Bubble: Colorado

 

UCLA and Stanford could move to the lower bubble if they lost in the Championship Game.  Colorado needs to win two games to have any chance at an at-large bid.

 

S E C

Tournament Begins March 8 in New Orleans

At-Large: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt

Upper Bubble: Alabama, Mississippi St.

Lower Bubble: Tennessee, Ole Miss

 

Tennessee and Ole Miss are the two hot teams other than Kentucky as the tournament commences.  Should one of these teams make it to Sunday, it would be hard to keep them out of the field.

 

Southland

Tournament Begins March 7 in Katy, TX

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: None

Lower Bubble: None

 

Texas-Arlington ran away from the field in the regular season, but the Mavericks did not run teams out of the gym.  They are no shoo-in to cop the conference tournament.

 

S W A C

Tournament Begins March 7 in Garland, TX

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: None

Lower Bubble: None

 

In a conference where half of the members lost 20 or more games and 80% had losing records, there is a high probability that the winner of the league’s automatic bid will be playing in Dayton in the opening round.  Top seed Mississippi Valley State went 1-11 outside of league play.

 

W A C

Tournament Begins March 7 in Las Vegas

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: None

Lower Bubble: Nevada

 

For Nevada to earn an at-large bid, all of the major conference tournaments need to be one by high seeds without any other lower bubble teams making a splash.

 

Next Update: Wednesday March 7

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