The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 9, 2012

BCS Championship Game Simulation

BCS National Championship Game Simulation

Monday, January 09, 2012

The Louisiana Superdome

New Orleans, Louisiana

8:30 PM EST

TV: ESPN (pre-game begins at 2:00 PM EST)

 

L S U 13-0 vs. Alabama 11-1

Vegas Spread: Alabama by 2  Totals: 40

We simulated this game 100 times, and here are the results below:

 

Sim Wins: Alabama 61  L S U 39

Average Sim Score: Alabama 20.1  L S U 15.7

Alabama beat the spread: 58

LSU beat the spread: 38

Push: 4

 

Biggest Alabama Win in the sim: 22 points

Biggest L S U Win in the sim: 12 points

 

We looked at all the sims individually to find the one that most accurately represented the mean.  We found one sim where Alabama won 20-16, and here are the stats from that one sim.

 

L S U

Team

Ala

 

 

 

14

FD

13

 

 

 

47-145

Rush

38-141

 

 

 

119

Passing

177

 

 

 

10-21-2

Passes

16-26-1

 

 

 

68

Plays

64

 

 

 

264

Tot Yds

318

 

 

 

3-61

KR

4-92

 

 

 

3-17

PR

2-104

 

 

 

1-12

Int Ret

2-31

 

 

 

1-1

Fum-Lst

1-0

 

 

 

7-55

Pen

5-40

 

 

 

7-42.3

Punt

7-40.6

 

 

 

30:53

Time

29:07

 

 

 

1-6

Sacks

4-25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

LSU

3

3

3

7

16

Ala

0

7

3

10

20

Rushing Leaders

LSU: Ware 14-49
Ala: Richardson 23-87
 

Passing Leaders

LSU: Lee 7-12-1 79
Ala: McCarron 16-26-1 177
 

Receiving Leader

LSU: Randle 4-63
Ala: Richardson 2-81
 
Winning touchdown scored on 87 yard punt return by Marquis
Maze with 7:09 left in the game

 

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