The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 3, 2012

2011-12 NFL Simulated Football Playoffs–Wildcard Round

The four NFL Wildcard Round Playoff Games were placed in the computer simulator this morning, and the results are posted below.  Each game was simulated 100 times.


What you will see below are the following results:

1. How many of the 100 simulations each team won

2. The Average score of the 100 simulations for each team

3. The number or times out of 100 each simulation covered the spread for the teams (with the number of pushes as well)

4. The largest outlier score for each team


The PiRate Ratings will not endorse wagering on these games based on this data.  It is experimental, and although the simulator has been accurate in the past in picking winners, it has been about 55% accurate against the spread, which is not worthy of using as an investment tool.  For any tool to be worthwhile in picking games against the spread, it must top 57.4%, which is 5% above the break-even mark.


Saturday, July 7, 2012

4:30 PM EST (NBC)—Cincinnati Bengals 9-7-0 at Houston Texans 10-6-0

Vegas Line: Houston by 3

Totals: 38


100 Simulations

Cincinnati 54  Houston 46


Average Simulation Score

Cincinnati 16.8  Houston 14.4  31.2 total points


Covered Spread

Cincinnati 71

Houston 24

Push 5


Outlier Scores

Cincinnati 34  Houston 10

Houston 24  Cincinnati 6

Saturday, January 7, 2012


8:00 PM EST (NBC)–Detroit Lions 10-6-0 at New Orleans Saints 13-3-0




Vegas Line: New Orleans by 10 ½


Totals: 58




100 Simulations


New Orleans 81  Detroit 19




Average Simulation Score


New Orleans 32.6  Detroit 23.1  55.7 total points




Covered Spread


Detroit 54


New Orleans 46




Outlier Scores


New Orleans 48  Detroit 17 & New Orleans 45  Detroit 14


Detroit 38  New Orleans 27





Sunday, January 8, 2012

1:00 PM EST (FOX)—Atlanta Falcons 10-6-0 at New York Giants 9-7-0


Vegas Line: New York Giants by 3

Totals: 47 ½


100 Simulations

New York Giants 53  Atlanta 47


Average Simulation Score

New York Giants 26.7  Atlanta 23.8  50.5 total points


Covered Spread

Atlanta 47

New York Giants 46

Push 7


Outlier Scores

New York Giants 38  Atlanta 14

Atlanta 35  New York Giants 13

Sunday, July 8, 2012


4:30 PM EST (CBS)—Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4-0 at Denver Broncos 8-8-0


Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 8


Totals: 34 ½




100 Simulations


Pittsburgh 92  Denver 8




Average Simulation Score


Pittsburgh 25.3  Denver 8.7  34.0 total points




Covered Spread


Pittsburgh 79


Denver 18


Push 3




Outlier Scores


Pittsburgh 41  Denver 10


Denver 16  Pittsburgh 10




Reminder: Check back Friday morning for the results of our simulated NCAA Playoffs—Simper Bowl V. 




Check back Friday afternoon for the results of 100 simulations of the BCS National Championship Game.



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