The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 2, 2012

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Wildcard Playoff Round–January 7-8, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:43 am

Two Good, Six Mediocre In Wildcard Round

While there is not a team with a losing record like last year, this year’s Wildcard Round features just two playoff-worthy teams and six mediocre teams.  At least two mediocre teams will advance to the Divisional Playoff Round next week.

 

In the “good ole days,” the top two teams in each league (AFL & NFL) met up in their championship game the week after the conclusion of the regular season, unless there was a tie for one of the two spots.  Then, a special playoff game took place the week after the regular season concluded, and the Championship Game took place the following week.

 

If you look at how that would have played out with this year’s races, let us place the East and South in one division and the North and West in another division.

 

In the AFC, New England would have won their division, while Baltimore and Pittsburgh would face each other in a playoff in Baltimore, with the winner facing New England in Foxboro next week.

 

In the NFC, Green Bay would have been facing New Orleans.  San Francisco and Atlanta would have headed to Miami to face off in the Playoff Bowl (look it up).

 

This would have given the NFL a much truer gauge and made the regular season much more important than it is today.  Rarely could teams rest their key players in the final week(s) and expect to make the playoffs.  The Super Bowl would guarantee only top flight teams as participants.  It would be a pox if somehow Denver or Cincinnati made it to the Super Bowl this year.  What would a Green Bay-Denver Super Bowl be worth?  The Packers would score enough points on their first two drives to win the game.

 

Final Regular Season PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Philadelphia Eagles

105.5

105.9

105.0

2

8

8

0

396

328

New York Giants

103.3

103.0

103.3

2

9

7

0

394

400

Dallas Cowboys

99.7

99.7

100.8

3

8

8

0

369

347

Washington Redskins

92.8

93.0

93.8

2.5

5

11

0

288

367

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Green Bay Packers

111.5

111.1

110.0

3.5

15

1

0

560

359

Detroit Lions

104.5

104.9

103.8

3

10

6

0

474

387

Chicago Bears

94.8

95.8

99.3

3.5

8

8

0

353

341

Minnesota Vikings

94.3

94.4

93.2

3

3

13

0

340

449

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New Orleans Saints

113.4

113.5

106.7

5

13

3

0

547

339

Atlanta Falcons

104.5

104.1

106.8

3.5

10

6

0

402

350

Carolina Panthers

99.3

99.2

99.8

2

6

10

0

406

429

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

88.8

88.4

91.8

3

4

12

0

287

494

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Francisco 49ers

105.9

105.7

105.7

3.5

13

3

0

380

229

Seattle Seahawks

100.7

100.7

100.6

2

7

9

0

321

315

Arizona Cardinals

97.6

97.2

100.3

3

8

8

0

312

348

St. Louis Rams

90.8

90.4

89.3

2.5

2

14

0

193

407

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New England Patriots

110.5

110.5

108.4

2

13

3

0

513

342

Miami Dolphins

103.0

102.7

101.8

3

6

10

0

329

313

New York Jets

101.8

101.4

98.1

3.5

8

8

0

377

363

Buffalo Bills

93.8

94.0

98.2

4.5

6

10

0

372

434

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Pittsburgh Steelers

106.8

106.8

103.1

4.5

12

4

0

325

227

Baltimore Ravens

105.4

105.3

106.6

4

12

4

0

378

266

Cincinnati Bengals

98.4

98.5

101.9

2

9

7

0

344

323

Cleveland Browns

95.4

95.3

95.4

1.5

4

12

0

218

307

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Tennessee Titans

99.7

99.3

98.9

1.5

9

7

0

325

317

Houston Texans

99.2

100.1

100.7

1.5

10

6

0

381

278

Jacksonville Jaguars

96.9

96.7

94.2

3

5

11

0

243

329

Indianapolis Colts

92.5

92.7

91.3

3.5

2

14

0

243

430

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Diego Chargers

102.8

103.0

100.9

3.5

8

8

0

406

377

Oakland Raiders

96.8

96.6

97.1

1.5

8

8

0

359

433

Kansas City Chiefs

96.8

96.6

95.3

2

7

9

0

212

338

Denver Broncos

94.1

93.8

97.8

1.5

8

8

0

309

390

 

The Playoff Simulator

We were out bright and early this AM, on our way to our local university computer lab to gain access to the computer simulator with the football simulation program.  However, it was not open today, so we will simulate the Wildcard Playoff games Tuesday, January 3, and report the results in a separate entry Tuesday afternoon.  Sorry for the inconvenience, but I guess college employees deserve a day off too.

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads

Home Team in CAPS

         
Wildcard Playoff Round:          
Vegas Line as of January 2, 2012 @ 9:00 AM EST        
             
Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

HOUSTON Cincinnati

2.3

3.1

0.3

3   

38 1/2

NEW ORLEANS Detroit

13.9

13.6

7.9

9 1/2

58   

NEW YORK GIANTS Atlanta

0.8

0.9

-1.5

3   

49   

Pittsburgh DENVER

11.2

11.5

3.8

8   

35 1/2

 

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