The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 27, 2011

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 17–January 1, 2012

It Will Be A Happy New Year For Fans Of…

The playoff races are quite easy to figure out as we enter week 17.  In the NFC, the winner of the Giants-Dallas game wins the East Division and earns the number four seed.  The Giants would earn the spot in the event of a tie.

 

Atlanta and Detroit will be the wildcards, and if they finished tied at 10-6, the Falcons will be the number five seed, and the Lions will be the number six seed.

 

San Francisco holds the tiebreaker over New Orleans for the number two seed, so the only way for the Saints to earn a first round bye is to beat Carolina and hope the 49ers lose to the lowly Rams, a team that will be fighting for the overall number one NFL Draft pick.

 

In the AFC, Denver and Oakland are tied for first in the West Division, but the Broncos hold the tiebreaker over the Raiders in the event they finish tied at 9-7, 8-7-1, or 8-8.

 

Houston is guaranteed the number three seed no matter what they do this week in their game against Tennessee.

 

New England, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh all have a shot at the top seed in the AFC.  If the Patriots win, they earn the spot.  If the Pats lose, Baltimore will take it away with a win over Cincinnati.  Pittsburgh can take it if both New England and Baltimore lose, and they beat Cleveland.

 

As for the Steelers and Ravens, Baltimore holds the tiebreaker edge.  The team not winning the North Division will be the number five seed.

 

The big story involves the final wildcard spot.  Cincinnati has the best percentage chance of taking the final seed.  If the Bengals beat Baltimore, Cinti is in the playoffs.  Should the Bengals lose, they could still earn the number six seed if the Jets lose or tie to Miami and only one or no AFC West teams finish 9-7.  If both Oakland and Denver win, then the Bengals will miss out on the playoffs if they lose to Baltimore.

 

Oakland has the next best chance at earning the wildcard.  The Raiders must beat San Diego.  Of course, if Denver loses, the Raiders would win the West Division.  If both Oakland and Denver win to finish 9-7, the Raiders will earn a wildcard spot if the Jets beat Miami and Tennessee does not finish 9-7.

 

Denver cannot earn a wildcard spot, because if they win this week, they are the West Division champions.  If the Broncos lose, they can still be the West champs if Oakland loses.

 

The Jets have a somewhat remote shot at making the playoffs if they beat Miami and the Bengals lose.  Tennessee would have to lose to Houston, and either Oakland or Denver would have to lose or tie. 

 

Tennessee has the least likely chance of earning a wildcard spot.  If the Bengals lose, and the Titans beat Houston, there are two ways they can earn the final spot.  The first way would be for the Jets to lose to Miami while both Oakland and Denver win their games.  The second way would be for the Jets to Win while either Oakland or Denver fail to win their games.

 

Here is our look at what we think will happen:

 

NFC

The Giants beat Dallas to earn the number four seed.

Atlanta beats Tampa Bay to earn the number five seed.

Detroit becomes the number six seed.

Both San Francisco and New Orleans win, giving the 49ers the number two seed and the bye.

 

AFC

New England beats Buffalo to sew up the number one seed.

Baltimore edges Cincinnati in a near-empty Paul Brown Stadium to earn the number two seed.

Houston already owns the number three seed and rests its starters, but their defense shuts down Tennessee, knocking the Titans out of the playoffs.

Denver comes through in the final minutes to beat Kansas City and win the West, while Oakland handles San Diego to finish 9-7.

Miami beats the Jets to knock them out of the playoffs, thus giving the Raiders the number six seed.

 

Wildcard Round

#6 Detroit at #3 New Orleans

#5 Atlanta at #4 New York Giants

#6 Oakland at #3 Houston

#5 Pittsburgh at #4 Denver

 

Divisional Round

#3 New Orleans at #2 San Francisco

#5 Atlanta at #1 Green Bay

#6 Oakland at #1 New England

#5 Pittsburgh at #2 Baltimore

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans at Green Bay

Baltimore at New England

 

Super Bowl

Green Bay vs. New England

 

Champions

Green Bay

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Philadelphia Eagles

104.3

103.9

103.5

2

7

8

0

362

318

New York Giants

102.2

101.8

102.0

1

8

7

0

363

386

Dallas Cowboys

100.8

101.0

101.0

3

8

7

0

355

316

Washington Redskins

94.0

94.3

92.9

2.5

5

10

0

278

333

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Green Bay Packers

111.9

111.5

109.7

3.5

14

1

0

515

318

Detroit Lions

104.1

104.3

103.3

3

10

5

0

433

342

Minnesota Vikings

95.0

94.8

93.8

3

3

12

0

327

432

Chicago Bears

94.1

95.5

98.5

3.5

7

8

0

336

328

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New Orleans Saints

112.5

111.9

106.2

5

12

3

0

502

322

Atlanta Falcons

104.2

104.0

105.7

3.5

9

6

0

357

326

Carolina Panthers

100.2

99.9

99.6

2

6

9

0

389

384

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

89.1

89.3

91.3

3

4

11

0

263

449

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Francisco 49ers

106.4

106.5

105.6

3.5

12

3

0

346

202

Seattle Seahawks

100.8

100.7

102.1

2

7

8

0

301

292

Arizona Cardinals

97.5

97.5

99.0

3

7

8

0

289

328

St. Louis Rams

90.3

90.0

87.7

2.5

2

13

0

166

373

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New England Patriots

109.5

109.3

107.9

1.5

12

3

0

464

321

Miami Dolphins

103.2

102.7

102.7

3

5

10

0

310

296

New York Jets

101.6

101.4

99.9

3.5

8

7

0

360

344

Buffalo Bills

94.8

95.0

100.3

4.5

6

9

0

351

385

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Pittsburgh Steelers

107.3

107.1

105.2

4.5

11

4

0

312

218

Baltimore Ravens

104.9

104.9

106.2

4

11

4

0

354

250

Cincinnati Bengals

98.9

99.0

103.7

2

9

6

0

328

299

Cleveland Browns

94.9

95.0

94.6

1.5

4

11

0

209

294

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Houston Texans

99.6

100.8

102.5

1.5

10

5

0

359

255

Tennessee Titans

99.3

99.0

99.1

1.5

8

7

0

302

295

Jacksonville Jaguars

96.9

96.5

90.9

3

4

11

0

224

316

Indianapolis Colts

92.5

92.3

91.6

3.5

2

13

0

230

411

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Diego Chargers

102.1

101.9

101.1

3.5

7

8

0

368

351

Oakland Raiders

97.5

97.4

98.4

1.5

8

7

0

333

395

Kansas City Chiefs

96.3

95.9

95.5

2

6

9

0

205

335

Denver Broncos

94.6

94.8

98.8

1.5

8

7

0

306

383

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

Home Team in CAPS

Vegas Line as of Tuesday, December 27, 2011 @ 3:00 PM EST

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

PHILADELPHIA Washington

12.3

11.6

12.6

9   

46 1/2

ATLANTA Tampa Bay

18.6

18.2

17.9

13   

47   

San Francisco ST. LOUIS

13.6

14.0

15.4

10 1/2

35 1/2

MINNESOTA Chicago

3.9

2.3

-1.7

-1   

40   

GREEN BAY Detroit

11.3

10.7

9.9

-3 1/2

46 1/2

NEW YORK GIANTS Dallas

2.4

1.8

2.0

3   

46 1/2

NEW ORLEANS Carolina

17.3

17.0

11.6

9 1/2

55   

HOUSTON Tennessee

1.8

3.3

4.9

-3   

40 1/2

Baltimore CINCINNATI

4.0

3.9

0.5

2 1/2

38   

Pittsburgh CLEVELAND

10.9

10.6

9.1

7   

36   

JACKSONVILLE Indianapolis

7.4

7.2

2.3

4   

37   

MIAMI New York Jets

4.6

4.3

5.8

1 1/2

41 1/2

NEW ENGLAND Buffalo

16.2

15.8

9.1

11 1/2

51   

San Diego OAKLAND

3.1

3.0

1.2

-3   

49   

Kansas City DENVER

0.2

-0.4

-4.8

-3   

37   

Seattle ARIZONA

0.3

0.2

0.1

-3   

41   

 

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