The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 20, 2011

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 16–December 22-26, 2011

Still Some Excitement In Playoff Races

Three of the four wildcard spots are all but assured, but there is still plenty of excitement left in the NFL playoff races.

 

In the NFC East, the Eagles now have a legitimate shot at sneaking in the playoffs as division champions with an 8-8 record.  If Philly beats Dallas and Washington in the final two games, while the Giants lose to the Jets and beat Dallas, then there will be a three-way tie for first at 8-8.  Philadelphia would win the tiebreaker.

 

If Dallas beats Philadelphia this week, and the Giants lose to the Jets, the Cowboys clinch the division title.  If the Giants win out, they will top the Cowboys in the tiebreaker.

 

If for some weird reason the Saints lose to the Falcons this week and the Panthers next week, while Atlanta beats Tampa Bay next week, Atlanta would be the division champion, while the Saints would be a wildcard team.  Don’t count on it happening.

 

In the NFC wildcard chase, the Lions and Falcons grab the spots with one win each.  In the event they both lose out to finish 9-7, then Dallas trumps everybody if the Cowboys finish 9-7 and does not win the NFC East (by virtue of the Giants finishing 9-7).

 

Atlanta would earn a wildcard spot at 9-7 if Dallas does not do so or wins the East over the Giants.

 

Arizona and Seattle can still get in, but only one team can do so—the winner of their game next week.  For the winner of that game to make it, both Atlanta and Detroit must lose out, or Dallas must either win their division or lose out.

 

New England has clinched the AFC East and has the easiest path to homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.  Houston has clinched the AFC South.  Baltimore and Pittsburgh have clinched playoff spots, and the Ravens would clinch the AFC North in any tie.

 

The AFC West is still up for grabs, and all four teams are still alive.  Kansas City would win the tiebreaker if all four teams finished 8-8.  That is the Chiefs’ only chance.  Denver clinches the division with two wins or one win and an Oakland loss.  Oakland clinches the division if Denver loses to Kansas City, and the Raiders win twice.  San Diego clinches the division if the Broncos lose twice and the Chargers win twice.

 

As for the final AFC wildcard spot, if the Jets win out, it is theirs.  In multiple 9-7 ties, Tennessee would win a tiebreaker with the Jets and Bengals.  However, if the Raiders finish at 9-7 as well, Oakland would win this four-way tiebreaker.  Oakland would win a three-way tiebreaker with the Jets and Bengals.  Should Oakland win the West and Denver finish 9-7, the Broncos would edge out a 9-7 Jets and 9-7 Bengals team in a three-way tie.

 

San Diego has the tiebreaker edge in a three-way tie with the Bengals and Jets at 9-7, and the Chargers would also earn the wildcard if Tennessee went 9-7 in this scenario.

 

Here is how the PiRate Ratings project the playoff race this week.

 

AFC                                                                NFC

1. New England 13-3                                     1. Green Bay 15-1

2. Houston 12-4                                              2. New Orleans 13-3

3. Pittsburgh 12-4                                          3. San Francisco 12-4

4. Denver 10-6                                               4. New York Giants 9-7

5. Baltimore 11-5                                           5. Atlanta 10-6

6. Cincinnati 10-6                                          6. Detroit 10-6

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Baltimore at Denver

Detroit at San Francisco

Atlanta at New York Giants

 

Divisional Playoff Round

Baltimore at New England

Pittsburgh at Houston

Atlanta at Green Bay

San Francisco at New Orleans

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans at Green Bay

Pittsburgh at New England

 

Super Bowl XVI

Green Bay vs. New England

 

Super Bowl Champions: Green Bay

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Philadelphia Eagles

102.9

101.8

104.2

3.5

6

8

0

342

311

Dallas Cowboys

102.2

101.2

101.5

1.5

8

6

0

348

296

New York Giants

100.8

100.6

99.9

2.5

7

7

0

334

372

Washington Redskins

95.2

95.3

94.8

2.5

5

9

0

252

300

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Green Bay Packers

112.2

112.2

109.7

4

13

1

0

480

297

Detroit Lions

101.8

102.2

103.7

3

9

5

0

395

332

Chicago Bears

93.8

95.6

97.6

3.5

7

7

0

315

293

Minnesota Vikings

93.8

92.8

91.0

3

2

12

0

294

406

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New Orleans Saints

110.4

109.9

106.5

3

11

3

0

457

306

Atlanta Falcons

106.3

106.0

108.3

1.5

9

5

0

341

281

Carolina Panthers

98.0

97.6

98.0

4.5

5

9

0

341

368

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

91.3

92.4

93.5

2.5

4

10

0

247

401

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Francisco 49ers

106.6

106.5

106.6

3

11

3

0

327

185

Seattle Seahawks

100.6

100.4

101.7

2.5

7

7

0

284

273

Arizona Cardinals

98.0

98.9

102.0

3.5

7

7

0

273

305

St. Louis Rams

90.7

89.1

87.8

2

2

12

0

166

346

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New England Patriots

109.8

109.2

108.1

4

11

3

0

437

297

New York Jets

103.0

103.4

99.9

3

8

6

0

346

315

Miami Dolphins

102.9

100.6

101.6

1.5

5

9

0

286

269

Buffalo Bills

92.0

92.9

96.0

4

5

9

0

311

371

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Pittsburgh Steelers

106.9

107.3

104.8

4

10

4

0

285

218

Baltimore Ravens

105.3

105.9

106.1

1.5

10

4

0

334

236

Cincinnati Bengals

98.4

98.8

100.8

2

8

6

0

305

283

Cleveland Browns

94.5

94.5

93.4

4.5

4

10

0

195

274

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Houston Texans

100.4

103.5

103.4

1

10

4

0

343

236

Tennessee Titans

99.0

99.5

98.2

3

7

7

0

279

278

Jacksonville Jaguars

97.2

95.6

92.8

3

4

10

0

207

293

Indianapolis Colts

91.7

90.2

90.6

1.5

1

13

0

211

395

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Diego Chargers

104.4

102.9

103.3

1.5

7

7

0

358

313

Denver Broncos

97.4

99.4

101.0

1.5

8

6

0

292

343

Oakland Raiders

97.3

97.8

96.9

1.5

7

7

0

317

382

Kansas City Chiefs

96.5

96.3

96.4

3

6

8

0

192

319

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

Home Team in CAPS

Vegas Line as of: Tuesday, December 20, 2011 @ 6:00 PM EST

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

Houston INDIANAPOLIS

5.7

10.3

9.8

6   

40   

KANSAS CITY Oakland

0.7

0.0

1.0

1   

42   

Denver BUFFALO

1.4

2.5

1.0

3   

42   

TENNESSEE Jacksonville

3.3

5.4

6.9

7 1/2

40   

CINCINNATI Arizona

1.9

1.4

0.3

4   

40 1/2

NEW ENGLAND Miami

8.4

10.1

8.0

9 1/2

49   

BALTIMORE Cleveland

14.8

15.4

16.7

13   

38 1/2

NEW YORK JETS NEW YORK GIANTS

2.2

2.8

0.0

3   

46   

WASHINGTON Minnesota

3.9

5.0

6.3

6 1/2

44   

CAROLINA Tampa Bay

8.2

6.7

6.0

7 1/2

48   

PITTSBURGH St. Louis

20.7

22.7

21.5

16   

37 1/2

DETROIT San Diego

0.8

2.3

3.4

2 1/2

52   

San Francisco SEATTLE

4.0

4.1

2.9

2 1/2

38   

DALLAS Philadelphia

2.8

2.9

0.8

1 1/2

50 1/2

GREEN BAY Chicago

21.9

20.1

15.6

12   

45   

NEW ORLEANS Atlanta

8.6

8.4

2.7

6 1/2

53   

 

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