How Things Stand With Three Weeks To Go
We have been projecting our playoff teams for several weeks, and there has been little movement. So, beginning this week, we will show you where any possible moves may come from. First, let’s reveal the legitimate play-off tiebreaking procedures. There are more than what we show, but the chances that any of them will ever be used is infinitesimal.
To Break A Tie Within A Division:
1. Head-to-head record—if one team sweeps the other or goes 1-0-1, stop here.
2. Division W-L record
3. Common Games W-L record
4. Conference W-L record
5. Strength of victory (Combined W-L % of all teams defeated)
6. Strength of schedule (Combined W-L% of all teams played)
To Break A Tie For The Wildcard Between Two Teams (Different Divisions)
1. Head to head
2. Conference W-L record
3. Common Games W-L record (Must be at least 4 common games)
4. Strength of victory (Combined W-L % of all teams defeated)
5. Strength of schedule (Combined W-L% of all teams played)
To Break A Tie Of Multiple Teams For the Wildcard:
First, if any of these tied teams are in the same division, apply the division tiebreaker to come up with just one team per division.
1. Head-to-head sweep by one team over all the other teams in the tiebreaker
2. Conference W-L record
3. Common Games W-L record (Must be at least 4 common games for all teams)
4. Strength of victory (Combined W-L % of all teams defeated)
5. Strength of schedule (Combined W-L% of all teams played)
Here is a brief tutorial of all eight divisions after 14 weeks.
NFC East
The New York Giants currently hold the tiebreaker over Dallas, because of head-to-head. Of course, they have to play Dallas in week 17. Both are 2-2 in the division. Dallas has a 5-4 conference record while the Giants are just 4-6. Dallas has two other conference games prior to the finale with the Giants—at Tampa Bay and at home against Philadelphia. New York hosts Washington this week and must win to have any chance to win the division if they lose to Dallas in week 17 and finish tied in the standings.
In the event that New York beats Washington and loses to Dallas, while the Cowboys lose to Philadelphia and beat Tampa Bay, the top two tiebreakers would push. In common games, the Giants would win the tiebreaker.
The key game may very well be the Giants-Jets game. If the Jets win, Dallas could win the East outright with a win in week 17. The Cowboys are very much alive in the wildcard race, and at 10-6, their chances of getting in would be high. There are still too many possibilities to go into all the different tiebreakers.
NFC South
New Orleans is up two with three to go, and the Saints will not lose three in a row. Atlanta is leading in the wildcard race, holding the tiebreaker over Detroit. The Falcons host Jacksonville and should pick up a ninth win this weekend. In week 16, they face the Saints in New Orleans, and the Saints are tough at home and will be looking for the #2 seed. A week 17 home game with Tampa Bay gives the Falcons an excellent chance to clinch the #5 seed.
NFC North
Green Bay has already clinched the division and has almost clinched homefield advantage to the Super Bowl.
Detroit holds onto the second wildcard spot at the moment, while Chicago is one game back. This is an interesting possible tiebreaker. Both the Lions and Bears face the Packers in Green Bay. For argument’s sake, let’s say the Packers win both. Chicago finishes at Minnesota in week 17, and the Bears would have to win and hope the Lions lose to Oakland this week and San Diego next week, because Detroit would win the tiebreaker if they finished tied. Basically, Chicago has to win out and have Green Bay beat Detroit to move ahead of the Lions. That means winning at Lambeau Field.
NFC West
San Francisco has already clinched the division. Seattle and Arizona have very slim chances at wildcard bids. Either will have to win out to finish at 9-7 and then hope that three from among the NFC East runnerup, Atlanta, Detroit, and Chicago fell to 9-7 or worse.
AFC East
New England has a commanding lead and would have to lose out not to win the division. Forget that happening; the Pats are in.
The Jets were almost given up for dead a few weeks ago, after they fell to 5-5 with a loss to King Tebow and the Broncos. Coach Rex Ryan’s troops have won three in a row to take over the second playoff spot. The Jets have two pivotal games against the NFC East—The Eagles and Giants—before finishing at Miami in week 17. If they drop one of these games and finish at 10-6, then they could lose out to Tennessee if the Titans close with three wins. Tennessee has an easy closing three games and could run the table.
AFC South
Houston won its first division title with their win over Cincinnati. They can still earn homefield advantage to the Super Bowl, and if it could play a direct role in determining the wildcard. The Texans should dismiss Carolina and Indianapolis the next two week to move to 12-3. They would then earn the top seed with a week 17 victory over the Titans.
Here is where things get interesting. Tennessee has Indianapolis and Jacksonville the next two weeks and should be 9-6 when they close the season at Houston. If the Jets have lost a game, then the Titans would earn the final wildcard spot with a win. If Houston is playing for homefield advantage, the Texans would use all their regulars and should win. If homefield advantage is not an issue, because the Texans have already clinched, or been eliminated, look for Tennessee to win against Houston’s reserves.
AFC North
Pittsburgh and Baltimore are tied for first and both headed to the playoffs. The Steelers have a crucial game at San Francisco this week. They host the Rams next week before finishing at Cleveland in week 17; that is a trap game if there ever was one.
Baltimore has its own trap game. The Ravens go to San Diego this week, and the Chargers are playing like they were supposed to all along. Baltimore has been stung on three road games this year, and this one has them travelling three time zones to the West Coast. The Ravens close with Cleveland at home and Cincinnati on the road. We expect the Bengals to be out of the race by that time, so Baltimore should be okay for that road game.
If the Ravens and Steelers finished tied, Baltimore wins the tiebreaker by virtue of better division record. Either way, the runnerup will be the #5 seed.
AFC West
Can anybody stop the Tebow Express? Yes, and it will happen this week, when New England wins by more than a touchdown. However, the Broncos close with Buffalo and Kansas City, two teams the Broncos can beat. So, let’s figure Denver to finish 10-6.
San Diego is 6-7 and thus would be eliminated from the race if that happens. Oakland is 7-6, so what happens if the Raiders were to win out and finish 7-6? Denver would still win the tiebreaker based on a better conference record.
So, what if Denver goes 9-7, losing at Buffalo in week 16, while Oakland and/or San Diego finish 9-7 as well? Denver wins all tiebreakers again. The only way for either Oakland or San Diego to win the division is to pass Denver in the standings. It looks like Tebow will play in January.
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
| NFC East |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| New York Giants |
102.3 |
101.4 |
102.8 |
1.5 |
7 |
– |
6 |
– |
0 |
324 |
349 |
| Dallas Cowboys |
101.5 |
101.5 |
101.4 |
3.5 |
7 |
– |
6 |
– |
0 |
317 |
281 |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
101.1 |
99.8 |
99.8 |
2 |
5 |
– |
8 |
– |
0 |
297 |
292 |
| Washington Redskins |
93.7 |
95.0 |
94.4 |
3 |
4 |
– |
9 |
– |
0 |
229 |
290 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| NFC North |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| Green Bay Packers |
114.0 |
113.2 |
109.8 |
3 |
13 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
466 |
278 |
| Detroit Lions |
101.7 |
103.5 |
103.1 |
2.5 |
8 |
– |
5 |
– |
0 |
367 |
305 |
| Chicago Bears |
95.7 |
96.6 |
100.2 |
4 |
7 |
– |
6 |
– |
0 |
301 |
255 |
| Minnesota Vikings |
94.6 |
94.3 |
92.6 |
4 |
2 |
– |
11 |
– |
0 |
274 |
364 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| NFC South |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| New Orleans Saints |
109.6 |
108.9 |
105.8 |
5 |
10 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
415 |
286 |
| Atlanta Falcons |
105.0 |
104.2 |
106.0 |
3 |
8 |
– |
5 |
– |
0 |
300 |
267 |
| Carolina Panthers |
96.4 |
96.9 |
98.2 |
2 |
4 |
– |
9 |
– |
0 |
313 |
355 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
92.0 |
92.9 |
94.5 |
2.5 |
4 |
– |
9 |
– |
0 |
232 |
370 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| NFC West |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| San Francisco 49ers |
105.3 |
106.0 |
104.7 |
3.5 |
10 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
307 |
182 |
| Seattle Seahawks |
98.7 |
99.4 |
99.9 |
3 |
6 |
– |
7 |
– |
0 |
246 |
259 |
| Arizona Cardinals |
98.2 |
97.8 |
100.9 |
2.5 |
6 |
– |
7 |
– |
0 |
253 |
288 |
| St. Louis Rams |
90.9 |
90.1 |
88.0 |
2 |
2 |
– |
11 |
– |
0 |
153 |
326 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| AFC East |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| New England Patriots |
109.2 |
108.4 |
107.8 |
1.5 |
10 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
396 |
274 |
| New York Jets |
104.8 |
104.5 |
102.7 |
3.5 |
8 |
– |
5 |
– |
0 |
327 |
270 |
| Miami Dolphins |
102.2 |
101.0 |
100.2 |
3 |
4 |
– |
9 |
– |
0 |
256 |
246 |
| Buffalo Bills |
92.7 |
95.5 |
98.8 |
4.5 |
5 |
– |
8 |
– |
0 |
288 |
341 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| AFC North |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
108.2 |
107.6 |
105.4 |
4.5 |
10 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
282 |
198 |
| Baltimore Ravens |
106.9 |
107.1 |
107.2 |
4 |
10 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
320 |
202 |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
98.2 |
99.2 |
101.7 |
2 |
7 |
– |
6 |
– |
0 |
285 |
270 |
| Cleveland Browns |
94.3 |
95.1 |
94.1 |
2 |
4 |
– |
9 |
– |
0 |
178 |
254 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| AFC South |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| Houston Texans |
102.0 |
103.3 |
103.9 |
1.5 |
10 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
330 |
208 |
| Tennessee Titans |
100.7 |
100.9 |
100.6 |
1.5 |
7 |
– |
6 |
– |
0 |
266 |
251 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
98.5 |
97.1 |
94.6 |
3 |
4 |
– |
9 |
– |
0 |
193 |
252 |
| Indianapolis Colts |
90.0 |
88.1 |
86.3 |
2 |
0 |
– |
13 |
– |
0 |
184 |
382 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| AFC West |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| San Diego Chargers |
102.8 |
101.3 |
100.7 |
2.5 |
6 |
– |
7 |
– |
0 |
324 |
299 |
| Denver Broncos |
98.0 |
98.8 |
102.4 |
1.5 |
8 |
– |
5 |
– |
0 |
269 |
302 |
| Oakland Raiders |
97.4 |
97.5 |
99.2 |
1.5 |
7 |
– |
6 |
– |
0 |
290 |
354 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
94.7 |
92.7 |
92.3 |
1.5 |
5 |
– |
8 |
– |
0 |
173 |
305 |
This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads
Week: 15—December 15-19, 2011
Vegas Line as of December 13, 4:30 PM EST
Home Team in CAPS
| Favorite | Underdog |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Vegas |
Totals |
| ATLANTA | Jacksonville |
9.5 |
10.1 |
14.4 |
11 |
42 1/2 |
| Dallas | TAMPA BAY |
7.0 |
6.1 |
4.4 |
7 |
46 1/2 |
| NEW YORK GIANTS | Washington |
10.1 |
7.9 |
9.9 |
7 |
45 1/2 |
| Green Bay | KANSAS CITY |
13.8 |
19.0 |
16.0 |
14 |
45 1/2 |
| New Orleans | MINNESOTA |
11.0 |
10.6 |
9.2 |
7 |
50 1/2 |
| CHICAGO | Seattle |
1.0 |
1.2 |
4.3 |
3 1/2 |
35 1/2 |
| BUFFALO | Miami |
5.0 |
1.0 |
-3.1 |
1 |
42 1/2 |
| HOUSTON | Carolina |
7.1 |
7.9 |
7.2 |
6 1/2 |
46 |
| Tennessee | INDIANAPOLIS |
8.7 |
10.8 |
12.3 |
6 1/2 |
41 |
| Cincinnati | ST. LOUIS |
5.3 |
7.1 |
11.7 |
6 |
38 1/2 |
| Detroit | OAKLAND |
2.8 |
4.5 |
2.4 |
1 |
47 1/2 |
| New England | DENVER |
9.7 |
8.1 |
3.9 |
6 |
45 1/2 |
| PHILADELPHIA | New York Jets |
1.7 |
2.7 |
0.9 |
2 1/2 |
44 |
| ARIZONA | Cleveland |
6.4 |
5.2 |
9.3 |
6 1/2 |
37 1/2 |
| Baltimore | SAN DIEGO |
1.6 |
3.3 |
4.0 |
2 1/2 |
44 |
| SAN FRANCISCO | Pittsburgh |
0.6 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
2 |
40 1/2 |
The Pi-Rate Ratings 