The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 29, 2011

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 13–December 1-5, 2011

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:18 pm

The Ratings And QB Injuries

Most computer ratings base their formulae strictly on the score of games played.  It matters not how team A beat team B 35-21, only that team A won 35-21.

 

The PiRate Ratings are not quite the same as most ratings.  Thus, when Houston suffers the loss of Matt Schaub and then Matt Leinart, forcing T.J. Yates into the starters role, it caused something to happen to the PiRate Ratings.

 

Our ratings are predictive in nature.  We do not rely on average scoring margin combined with strength of schedule to forecast games.  Yes, scoring margin and strength of schedule are part of our three formulae, but we have a different way of looking at the games.

 

First, we do not take a 35-21 Team A win over Team B as strictly a two touchdown win.  We look at how the game played out.  How effective was Team A’s offense against Team B’s defense?

 

Let’s say Team C also beat Team B 35-21 a week earlier, and both games were played at Team B’s home stadium.  What if:

 

Team A gained 400 total yards and could have scored two more touchdowns than they did.  They chose to run the clock out at the end of the game after driving 75 yards to Team B’s 3 yard line.  Earlier in the game, they drove 75 yards to Team B’s 3 and then they chose to go for it on 4th and 2 and came up 3 inches short.

 

Team C gained only 200 yards and scored on an intercepted screen pass and a punt return.  Additionally, Team B gained 200 more yards against Team C than they did against Team A.

 

Are Team A and Team C equal when looking at their games against Team B?  According to most computer ratings, they are.  The PiRate Ratings would estimate on the games played that Team A is about 6 points better than Team C.

 

Because Houston played a good part of their last game with Yates at quarterback (and the same goes for Chicago with Caleb Hanie), we can modify the ratings to show how much weaker the Texans (and Bears) are compare to when they had Schaub and/or Leinart (as well as Cutler).  So, in this week’s ratings, you will see how the loss of quarterbacks has affected our predictions.

 

On the other hand, if Peyton Manning miraculously returned to action this week for Indianapolis to play at New England, we would not have any 2011 data to base his effectiveness.  We could only estimate how many points he would be worth for the Colts, but, we do have a mechanical system in place to account for this.  Indianapolis would be 16 points better off if a healthy Manning was under center; unfortunately, the Colts would still be expected to lose by double digits at Foxboro. 

 

Since all of our ratings have a mean of 100, with every point or fraction thereof we take away from Houston (and Chicago), we have to divvy it up among the other teams.  And, voila:  we have ratings that reflect each team’s current strength and/or weakness.

 

Remember, a rating of 100 is average for a team.  If a team is rated at 106.4, they are 6.4 points better than average, and if they are rated 93.6, they are 6.4 points weaker than average.

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Dallas Cowboys

102.8

104.3

104.8

3.5

7

4

0

270

225

Philadelphia Eagles

101.2

100.3

101.3

2

4

7

0

257

251

New York Giants

100.3

99.5

102.2

1.5

6

5

0

252

277

Washington Redskins

93.9

95.4

95.3

3.5

4

7

0

183

222

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Green Bay Packers

114.2

113.7

110.2

2.5

11

0

0

382

227

Detroit Lions

102.3

105.2

103.9

2.5

7

4

0

316

246

Chicago Bears

96.8

97.0

97.4

4

7

4

0

288

232

Minnesota Vikings

94.6

94.6

91.6

4.5

2

9

0

214

295

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New Orleans Saints

109.4

108.6

107.0

5

8

3

0

362

252

Atlanta Falcons

105.6

104.4

106.2

2.5

7

4

0

259

227

Tampa Bay Bucaneers

97.1

96.9

98.5

2

4

7

0

199

291

Carolina Panthers

93.6

93.8

97.3

2.5

3

8

0

252

305

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Francisco 49ers

104.9

107.0

104.8

3

9

2

0

262

161

Arizona Cardinals

96.8

95.2

97.4

2

4

7

0

213

256

Seattle Seahawks

95.6

96.6

93.4

2.5

4

7

0

185

232

St. Louis Rams

92.5

90.7

88.7

2.5

2

9

0

140

270

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New England Patriots

112.3

111.7

109.2

2

8

3

0

331

223

New York Jets

102.6

102.5

100.9

3

6

5

0

256

241

Miami Dolphins

102.1

100.9

99.9

3.5

3

8

0

212

206

Buffalo Bills

94.0

97.7

100.6

4

5

6

0

261

281

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Baltimore Ravens

106.6

107.8

108.1

4.5

8

3

0

272

182

Pittsburgh Steelers

106.2

106.2

105.3

4

8

3

0

233

188

Cincinnati Bengals

100.2

101.1

103.1

1

7

4

0

259

215

Cleveland Browns

94.4

95.4

97.1

2.5

4

7

0

165

216

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Houston Texans

100.9

99.8

99.6

1.5

8

3

0

293

179

Tennessee Titans

100.2

100.6

101.2

2

6

5

0

226

212

Jacksonville Jaguars

99.2

98.1

94.5

3.5

3

8

0

138

200

Indianapolis Colts

88.4

85.8

84.4

3

0

11

0

150

327

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Oakland Raiders

100.1

100.4

102.9

1

7

4

0

260

274

San Diego Chargers

99.4

98.5

99.1

3

4

7

0

249

275

Denver Broncos

97.8

98.3

99.9

2

6

5

0

221

260

Kansas City Chiefs

94.9

91.7

94.1

1.5

4

7

0

153

265

 

PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads For This Week’s Games

Week 13: December 1-5, 2011

 

Vegas Line as of 11/29/2011  @ 5:00 PM EST

 

 

Home Team in CAPS

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

Philadelphia SEATTLE

3.1

1.2

5.4

3   

44   

Tennessee BUFFALO

2.2

-1.1

-3.4

-1 1/2

43 1/2

CHICAGO Kansas City

5.9

9.3

7.3

7 1/2

36 1/2

MIAMI Oakland

5.5

4.0

0.5

3   

43   

PITTSBURGH Cincinnati

10.0

9.1

6.2

6 1/2

42   

Baltimore CLEVELAND

9.7

9.9

8.5

6 1/2

37 1/2

New York Jets WASHINGTON

5.2

3.6

2.1

3   

38   

Atlanta HOUSTON

3.2

3.1

5.1

2 1/2

39   

TAMPA BAY Carolina

5.5

5.1

3.2

3   

48 1/2

NEW ORLEANS Detroit

12.1

8.4

8.1

9   

54 1/2

Denver MINNESOTA

1.2

1.7

6.3

Pk

37 1/2

SAN FRANCISCO St. Louis

15.4

19.3

19.1

13   

37 1/2

Dallas ARIZONA

4.0

7.1

5.4

4 1/2

45 1/2

Green Bay NEW YORK GIANTS

12.4

12.7

6.5

7   

53   

NEW ENGLAND Indianapolis

25.9

27.9

26.8

20 1/2

49   

JACKSONVILLE San Diego

3.3

3.1

-1.1

-2 1/2

39   

 

Playoff Projections

There are some changes to this week’s playoff projections.  Detroit has been removed from a wildcard spot, while Atlanta has been added.  Chicago has dropped back to the #6 seed in the NFC with a couple extra losses figured into their finish.

 

In the AFC, Denver is now expected to finish in a tie with Oakland for the West Division title and win the playoff spot based on tiebreakers.

 

Houston is expected to plummet with a 2-3 finish, but the Texans are comfortably ahead of second place Tennessee.  It will cost the Texans a spot in the seedings.

 

N F C

1. Green Bay

2. San Francisco

3. New Orleans

4. Dallas

5. Atlanta

6. Chicago

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Denver

4. Houston

5. Baltimore

6. Cincinnati

 

Wildcard Round

New Orleans over Chicago

Dallas over Atlanta

Denver over Cincinnati

Baltimore over Houston

 

Divisional Round

Green Bay over Dallas

New Orleans over San Francisco

Pittsburgh over Denver

New England over Baltimore

 

Conference Championships

Green Bay over New Orleans

Pittsburgh over New England

 

SUPER BOWL

Green Bay over Pittsburgh

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