The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 28, 2011

PiRate Ratings: College Football for December 1-10, 2011

It’s Open Season On Coaching Jobs

It started early this year.  New Mexico was forced to dismiss Mike Locksley early, and the Lobos were quick to name former Notre Dame coach Bob Davie as their new coach.  Ohio State’s job was available as soon as the Buckeyes lost their second game.  To say the brass in Columbus did not know who they wanted from the start was an “Urban” myth.

 

Ole Miss terminated Houston Nutt.  Arizona and Mike Stoops parted ways.  Joe Paterno lost his job over off the field issues.  Then, Bob Toledo was sent on his way from Tulane.

 

The floodgates soon opened, and by Sunday, the list of coaching vacancies had swelled.  At its worst, Akron fired Rob Ianello over the phone while he was driving to his mother’s funeral.  What a tasteless act!  A pox on the program, the Zips should be punished with 30 losing seasons in a row and a bankrupt athletic department.  How would any honest, hard-working coach ever want to sign on with the Zips?

 

If you ever wanted to find a living example of the Peter Principle, then look at Champaign-Urbana, Illinois.  Ron Zook proved for the second time that he is not up to the task of handling a major college football program.  The Illini dismissed Zook Sunday following their sixth consecutive loss after beginning the season 6-0 with talent strong enough to contend for the Leaders Division title.  Zook should be a recruiter and an assistant coach.  He admitted earlier this season that he did not know the score of more than one game when he made decisions to go for two points following a touchdown.

 

More vacancies are sure to come.  Rick Neuheisel is expected to be fired as soon as his UCLA Bruins lose at Oregon this week.  He could even lose his job if the Bruins upset the Ducks and earn a Rose Bowl bid.  With Meyer filling the Ohio State vacancy and former Michigan and West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez filling the Arizona vacancy, the vacancy in Westwood becomes the cream of the crop if it indeed becomes a vacancy.  You have to believe the Penn State job will not be as enticing.

 

As The Leach Turns

Mike Leach, an honorary member of the PiRate Ratings, will be considered for many of the coaching vacancies this year.  Fans at Kansas, Ole Miss, Washington State, Arizona State, Tulane, Florida Atlantic, and UAB have already begun to talk about Leach being at or near the top of their wish list.  As soon as Neuheisel is let go at UCLA, Leach fever will break out in Westwood.

 

Leach does not understand the principle of tactfulness.  Like Howard Cosell, he tells it like it is, and the “good ole boys network” does not like 100% honesty coming forth from their employees.  It’s the company line or the unemployment line, and Leach is doing quite well as a sports talk show host.  Throw in a wrongful termination suit against Texas Tech (which appears to be justified) and a lawsuit against ESPN, and Ron Zook may have a better chance getting hired for one of these coaching vacancies. 

 

Gary Barnett took a Northwestern program that had been 0-11 or 1-10 over 50% of the time in the 20 years prior to his coming to Evanston.  He guided the Wildcats to the Rose Bowl.  He went to Boulder and guided Colorado to a Big 12 Championship, yet he found himself unemployed following an incident in which he used tactics to encourage a female placekicker to quit the team.  No school ever approached him following his termination, and Leach could very well be in the same boat.

 

The Big East Isn’t As Messy Now

After a wild week of games on the Eastern Seaboard, the race for the automatic bid to a BCS Bowl comes down to three teams in the Big East’s final weekend.  Louisville defeated South Florida to become one of the three finalists.  The Cardinals do not control their own destiny, and they will be on the sidelines anxiously awaiting the results of games to be played Thursday and Saturday.

 

West Virginia ventures to Tampa Thursday night to take on South Florida.  If the Mountaineers win, then Cincinnati is eliminated from the race.  If West Virginia loses, then Cincinnati would then control their own destiny.  The Bearcats host Connecticut Saturday.

 

If West Virginia and Cincinnati both win, then West Virginia is the Big East Champion in a three-way tiebreaker.  If West Virginia wins and Cincinnati loses to Connecticut, then Louisville is the winner in a two-way tiebreaker.  If West Virginia loses and Cincinnati wins, then Cincinnati bests Louisville in a two-way tiebreaker.  Of course, if both West Virginia and Cincinnati both lose, Louisville wins the conference outright.

 

According to game theory, Louisville has two options to win the conference championship, while WVU and Cinti have just one.  So, Louisville is the favorite to get the BCS bowl bid.  Regardless of which team wins, that team will be the 10th and final BCS bowl selection, and they will play the ACC Champion in the Orange Bowl, which has the final pick this year.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

1

L S U

137.8

2

Alabama

135.1

3

Southern Cal

130.9

4

Oregon

129.5

5

Stanford

127.2

6

Wisconsin

127.1

7

Oklahoma

126.8

8

Oklahoma St.

126.3

9

Arkansas

123.6

10

Florida St.

120.3

11

Houston

119.9

12

Boise St.

119.9

13

Michigan

119.2

14

Georgia 

118.6

15

Michigan St.

118.6

16

Texas A&M

118.5

17

Virginia Tech

116.8

18

Texas

116.8

19

Notre Dame

116.7

20

S. Carolina

115.9

21

Kansas St.

114.2

22

T C U

114.1

23

California

113.9

24

Missouri

113.6

25

Baylor

113.1

26

Nebraska

112.0

27

Vanderbilt

111.3

28

Florida 

110.6

29

B Y U

109.9

30

Louisiana Tech

109.3

31

Utah

109.0

32

Arizona St.

108.9

33

Miami (FL)

108.8

34

Mississippi St.

108.7

35

Washington

108.5

36

Clemson

108.3

37

Ohio St.

108.1

38

W. Virginia

106.8

39

Tulsa

106.4

40

Cincinnati

106.4

41

Georgia Tech

105.8

42

N. Carolina St.

105.7

43

Penn St.

105.4

44

Boston Coll.

105.1

45

N. Carolina

105.0

46

Pittsburgh

104.8

47

Oregon St.

104.4

48

Iowa

104.3

49

U C L A

104.2

50

Nevada

103.8

51

Louisville

103.7

52

Iowa St.

103.6

53

Auburn

103.5

54

Southern Miss.

103.3

55

Northwestern

103.3

56

Virginia

102.8

57

Arizona

102.8

58

Washington St.

102.1

59

Tennessee

101.7

60

S. Florida

100.7

61

Air Force

100.4

62

Wake Forest

100.3

63

Toledo

99.9

64

Temple

99.4

65

Utah St.

98.9

66

Rutgers

98.8

67

Purdue

98.3

68

Illinois

98.0

69

San Diego St.

97.2

70

Connecticut

97.2

71

Minnesota

97.2

72

Texas Tech

96.9

73

Wyoming

95.6

74

Navy

95.4

75

Colorado

95.4

76

Western Michigan

95.3

77

Duke

95.3

78

Central Florida

95.2

79

Northern Illinois

95.0

80

Kentucky

94.9

81

Arkansas St.

94.5

82

San Jose St.

93.6

83

S M U

91.9

84

Hawaii

91.7

85

Maryland

91.6

86

East Carolina

91.4

87

Fresno St.

91.2

88

Syracuse

91.0

89

Miami (O)

90.2

90

Western Ky.

89.6

91

Florida Int’l

89.2

92

Ohio U

89.1

93

Kansas

89.1

94

Ole Miss

88.7

95

UL-Lafayette

86.8

96

U T E P

85.5

97

Idaho

85.3

98

Marshall

84.9

99

UL-Monroe

84.8

100

Bowling Green

84.2

101

Rice

83.9

102

Colorado St.

83.6

103

Army

83.0

104

Ball St.

82.9

105

Eastern Michigan

82.0

106

Indiana

82.0

107

Kent St.

81.9

108

New Mexico St.

80.2

109

North Texas

79.3

110

U A B

78.8

111

U N L V

77.3

112

Central Michigan

76.5

113

Buffalo

76.0

114

Troy

75.9

115

Middle Tennessee

72.7

116

New Mexico

71.1

117

Tulane

70.5

118

Memphis

68.0

119

Florida Atlantic

65.2

120

Akron

57.4

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

* = team has clinched conference or division title

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaState

5-3

8-4

120.3

Clemson

6-2 *

9-3

108.3

North CarolinaState

4-4

7-5

105.7

BostonCollege

3-5

4-8

105.1

WakeForest

5-3

6-6

100.3

Maryland

1-7

2-10

91.6

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

7-1 *

11-1

116.8

Miami-FL

3-5

6-6

108.8

Georgia Tech

5-3

8-4

105.8

North Carolina

3-5

7-5

105.0

Virginia

5-3

8-4

102.8

Duke

1-7

3-9

95.3

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

West Virginia

4-2

8-3

106.8

Cincinnati

4-2

8-3

106.4

Pittsburgh

3-3

5-6

104.8

Louisville

5-2

7-5

103.7

South Florida

1-5

5-6

100.7

Rutgers

4-3

8-4

98.8

Connecticut

3-3

5-6

97.2

Syracuse

1-5

5-6

91.0

 

Big Ten

       
Leaders Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Wisconsin

6-2 *

10-2

127.1

Penn State

6-2

9-3

105.4

Ohio State

3-5

6-6

108.1

Illinois

2-6

6-6

98.0

Purdue

4-4

6-6

98.3

Indiana

0-8

1-11

82.0

       
Legends Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Michigan

6-2

10-2

119.2

Michigan State

7-1 *

10-2

118.6

Nebraska

5-3

9-3

112.0

Iowa

4-4

7-5

104.3

Northwestern

3-5

6-6

103.3

Minnesota

2-6

3-9

97.2

 

Big 12

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma

6-2

9-2

126.8

Oklahoma State

7-1

10-1

126.3

Texas A&M

4-5

6-6

118.5

Texas

4-4

7-4

116.8

Kansas State

6-2

9-2

114.2

Missouri

5-4

7-5

113.6

Baylor

5-3

8-3

113.1

Iowa State

3-5

6-5

103.6

Texas Tech

2-7

5-7

96.9

Kansas

0-9

2-10

89.1

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

6-2 *

10-2

103.3

Central Florida

3-5

5-7

95.2

East Carolina

4-4

5-7

91.4

Marshall

5-3

6-6

84.9

U A B

3-5

3-9

78.8

Memphis

1-7

2-10

68.0

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

8-0 *

12-0

119.9

Tulsa

7-1

8-4

106.4

S M U

5-3

7-5

91.9

U T E P

2-6

5-7

85.5

Rice

3-5

4-8

83.9

Tulane

1-7

2-11

70.5

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

8-4

116.7

B Y U  

8-3

109.9

Navy  

4-7

95.4

Army  

3-8

83.0

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

5-3

8-4

99.4

Miami (O)

3-5

4-8

90.2

Ohio U

6-2 *

9-3

89.1

Bowling Green

3-5

5-7

84.2

Kent St.

4-4

5-7

81.9

Buffalo

2-6

3-9

76.0

Akron

0-8

1-11

57.4

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Toledo

7-1

8-4

99.9

Western Michigan

5-3

7-5

95.3

Northern Illinois

7-1 *

9-3

95.0

Ball State

4-4

6-6

82.9

Eastern Michigan

4-4

6-6

82.0

Central Michigan

2-6

3-9

76.5

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Boise State

5-1

10-1

119.9

T C U

6-0 *

9-2

114.1

Air Force

3-4

7-5

100.4

San Diego State

4-3

7-4

97.2

Wyoming

4-2

7-4

95.6

Colorado State

1-5

3-8

83.6

UNLV

1-5

2-9

77.3

New Mexico

1-5

1-10

71.1

 

Pac-12 Conference

       
North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oregon

8-1 *

10-2

129.5

Stanford

8-1

11-1

127.2

California

4-5

7-5

113.9

Washington

5-4

7-5

108.5

Oregon State

3-6

3-9

104.4

Washington State

2-7

4-8

102.1

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

U S C

7-2

10-2

130.9

Utah

4-5

7-5

109.0

Arizona State

4-5

6-6

108.9

U C L A

5-4 *

6-6

104.2

Arizona

2-7

4-8

102.8

Colorado

2-7

3-10

95.4

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Georgia

7-1 *

10-2

118.6

South Carolina

6-2

10-2

115.9

Vanderbilt

2-6

6-6

111.3

Florida

3-5

6-6

110.6

Tennessee

1-7

5-7

101.7

Kentucky

2-6

5-7

94.9

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

L S U

8-0 *

12-0

137.8

Alabama

7-1

11-1

135.1

Arkansas

6-2

10-2

123.6

Mississippi State

2-6

6-6

108.7

Auburn

4-4

7-5

103.5

Ole Miss

0-8

2-10

88.7

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Arkansas State

7-0 *

9-2

94.5

Western Kentucky

7-1

7-5

89.6

Florida International

5-3

8-4

89.2

U. of Louisiana

6-2

8-4

86.8

Louisiana-Monroe

2-5

3-8

84.8

North Texas

3-4

4-7

79.3

Troy

2-5

3-8

75.9

Middle Tennessee

1-6

2-9

72.7

Florida Atlantic

0-7

1-10

65.2

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

LouisianaTech

6-1 *

8-4

109.3

Nevada

4-2

6-5

103.8

Utah State

4-2

6-5

98.9

San Jose State

3-4

5-7

93.6

Hawaii

3-4

6-6

91.7

Fresno State

3-4

4-8

91.2

Idaho

1-5

2-9

85.3

New Mexico State

2-4

4-8

80.2

 

 

Final Regular Season Games (12/1 to 12/10)

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

Thursday, December 1  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

West Virginia SOUTH FLORIDA

3.1

27-24

1   

   

 

 

 

Friday, December 2  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Northern Illinois   (n) Ohio U

5.9

30-24

3   

OREGON U c l a

28.3

38-10

30 1/2

   

 

 

 

Saturday, December 3  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

CINCINNATI Connecticut

12.2

32-20

9 1/2

PITTSBURGH Syracuse

16.8

27-10

13   

KANSAS ST. Iowa St.

13.6

31-17

12   

Wyoming COLORADO ST.

9.5

24-14

5   

T C U U n l v

39.8

47-7

40 1/2

OKLAHOMA ST. Oklahoma

2.0

35-33

3   

Texas BAYLOR

1.2

29-28

-2 1/2

NEVADA Idaho

21.0

42-21

19   

BOISE ST. New Mexico

51.8

52-0

52   

B y u HAWAII

14.2

35-21

8   

Utah St. NEW MEXICO ST.

16.2

37-21

14   

SAN DIEGO ST. Fresno St.

8.5

33-24

6 1/2

ARKANSAS ST. Troy

21.1

34-13

13   

NORTH TEXAS Middle Tennessee

9.6

27-17

7   

Louisiana-Monroe FLORIDA ATLANTIC

17.1

34-17

11 1/2

HOUSTON Southern Miss.

19.6

41-21

16 1/2

L s u    (n) Georgia

17.7

35-17

10   

Virginia Tech    (n) Clemson

8.5

28-19

4 1/2

Wisconsin     (n) Michigan St.

8.5

35-26

7 1/2

   

 

 

 

Saturday, December 10  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Navy     (n) Army

12.4

24-12

NL

 

Bowl Predictions

At this point of the season, we are no longer making predictions on bowl games.  Instead, we are perusing the media for incites into which way the bowls are leaning.  For instance, from sport talk radio this morning, we have heard the rumor that the Gator Bowl is going to go after Florida and Ohio State due to the Urban Meyer factor.  Thus, when we predict this matchup, it is no longer our true prediction, but our repetition of the rumor.  We do not rely on any online bowl speculations; we are looking for legitimate media reports.  If there are no specific reports concerning a particular bowl, then we do the speculating based on an educated guess.

 

Teams in Italics have already accepted the bowl bid

* = At-large Team

 

As of today, we are projecting 71 teams to be bowl eligible after this weekend.  The 70th spot will come down to a choice between Ball State and Illinois, unless something occurs with Penn State.  There is a move afoot for the bowls not to invite the Nittany Lions, but as of this writing, there is no legal means to do so.

 

Bowl

Conference

Conference

Team

Team

New Mexico

MWC #4

Pac12 #7 / WAC

San Diego St.

Temple *

Famous Idaho Potato

MAC #3

WAC

Toledo

Utah St.

New Orleans

Sunbelt #1

C-USA

U. of Louisiana

Marshall

Beef O’Brady’s

Big East #6

C-USA

South Florida

Florida Int’l *

Poinsettia

MWC #2

WAC

T C U

Louisiana Tech

MAACO

MWC #1

Pac 12 #5

Boise St.

Arizona St.

Hawaii

WAC

C-USA

Nevada

S M U

Independence

ACC #7

MWC #3

North Carolina

Wyoming

Little Caesar’s Pizza

Big 10 #8

MAC #2

Northwestern

Western Mich.

Belk

ACC #5

Big East #3

North Carolina St.

West Virginia

Military

ACC #8

Navy

Wake Forest

Air Force *

Holiday

Pac 12 #3

Big 12 #5

California

Baylor

Champs Sports

Big East #2

ACC #3

Notre Dame

Florida St.

Alamo

Big 12 #3

Pac 10 #2

Texas

Washington

Armed Forces

C-USA #3

B Y U

Tulsa

B Y U

Pinstripe

Big East #4

Big 12 #7

Rutgers

Iowa St.

Music City

SEC # 7

ACC #6

Mississippi St.

Virginia

Insight

Big 12 #4

Big 10 #4 or 5

Kansas St.

Iowa

Meineke Car Care of Texas

Big 12 #6

Big 10 #6

Texas A&M

Penn St.

Sun

ACC #4

Pac 12 #4

Georgia Tech

Utah

Kraft Fight Hunger

Pac 10 #6

Army/ACC

Ohio U *

Illinois *

Liberty

SEC#8-9/BigEast

C-USA #1

Vanderbilt

Southern Miss.

Chick-fil-A

SEC #5

ACC #2

Auburn

Clemson

TicketCity

Big 10 #7

C-USA

Purdue

Pittsburgh *

Capital One

Big 10 #2

SEC #2

Michigan St.

Arkansas

Gator

Big 10 #4 or 5

SEC #6

Ohio St.

Florida

Outback

SEC #3 or 4

Big 10 #3

South Carolina

Nebraska

Rose

BCS Pac12

BCS Big 10

Oregon

Wisconsin

Fiesta

BCS Big 12

BCS At-Large

Oklahoma St.

Stanford

Sugar

BCS SEC

BCS At-Large

Houston *

Michigan

Orange

BCS ACC

BCS At-Large

Virginia Tech

Cincinnati

Cotton

Big 12 #2

SEC #3 or 4

Oklahoma

Georgia

BBVA Compass

Big East#5/CUSA

SEC #8 or 9

Louisville

Western Ky. *

GoDaddy.com

Sunbelt # 2

MAC #1

Arkansas St.

Northern Illinois

National Championship

*** BCS #1 ***

*** BCS #2 ***

L S U

Alabama

 

 

*** Returning next week: Our computer simulated college football playoffs.  We will use the same formula we have used in past years—a 12-team college football playoff. 

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