The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 15, 2011

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 11–November 17-21, 2011

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:26 pm

The Playoff Chase

This is the last week for byes in the schedule, so after Monday night, all 32 teams will have six games to go in the regular season.  Let’s take a look at each of the eight division races.

 

NFC East

New York Giants 6-3-0

Games Remaining: Phi, at NO, GB, at Dal, Was, at NYJ, Dal

 

Dallas Cowboys 5-4-0

Games Remaining:  at Was, Mia, at Ari, NYG, at TB, Phi, at NYG

 

Our Take

We see both teams finishing 10-6-0, and according to the way we see the games going, Dallas will win the tiebreaker based on better conference record.  The Giants will miss the playoffs altogether according to this scenario.

 

NFC North

Green Bay Packers 9-0-0

Games Remaining: TB, at Det, at NYG, Oak, at KC, Chi, Det

 

Detroit Lions 6-3-0

Games Remaining: Car, GB, at NO, Min, at Oak, SD, at GB

 

Chicago Bears 6-3-0

Games Remaining: SD, at Oak, KC, at Den, Sea, at GB, at Min

 

Our Take

Green Bay should lose at least one game, and we believe it will be the same one their great 1962 championship team lost—at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day.

 

Chicago has a perfect schedule; the Bears could easily go 6-1 and should go at least 5-2 to earn a wildcard at 11-5-0.

 

Detroit has an excellent shot at 11-5-0 as well and should be at least 10-6-0.  At 10-6-0, we have them winning all the key tiebreakers to earn the final playoff spot.

 

NFC South

New Orleans Saints 7-3-0

Games Remaining: NYG, Det, at Ten, at Min, Atl, Car

 

Atlanta Falcons 5-4-0

Games Remaining: Ten, Min, at Hou, at Car, Jax, at NO, TB

 

Our Take

We feel this race is over after last Sunday.  The Falcons’ gamble did not pay off, and their loss is a playoff spot.  We believe the best Atlanta can do with their remaining schedule is go 5-2, and they will need to go 6-1 to win a wildcard spot.

 

New Orleans could make a run at the number two seed, but we believe they will have to settle for number three at 12-4-0 or 13-3-0.

 

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers 8-1-0

Games Remaining: Ari, at Bal, Stl, at Ari, Pit, at Sea, at Stl

 

Our Take

This race has been over for quite some time.  Even if the 49ers lose their last seven games, they could still win this division by two games.  They are playing for a first round bye and home field advantage.  We do not believe San Francisco can win out, and we believe they will drop two or three games more, but the 49ers will be the number two seed.

 

AFC East

New England Patriots 6-3-0

Games Remaining: KC, at Phi, Ind, at Was, at Den, Mia, Buf

 

New York Jets 5-4-0

Games Remaining: at Den, Buf, at Was, KC, at Phi, NYG, at Mia

 

Buffalo 5-4-0

Games Remaining: at Mia, at NYJ, Ten, at SD, Mia, Den, at NE

 

Our Take

New England has this division wrapped up, and the Patriots have an easier schedule thanks to a date with the Colts.  The road to the overall conference number one seed is an easy parkway for the Pats; luck once again is on their side with Pittsburgh and Houston having quarterback issues that will cost them game(s).

 

The Jets may have to go 6-1 to qualify as a wildcard, and we do not see them doing so. 

 

As for the Bills, they are the NFL’s equivalent of the Pittsburgh Pirates.  The Pirates were in first place as late as the last week of July, and they finished a distant fourth in the NL Central.  The Bills may not slide to last place, but we see them finishing under .500 after starting 5-2.

 

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers 7-3-0

Games Remaining: at KC, Cin, Cle, at SF, Stl, at Cle

 

Baltimore Ravens 6-3-0

Games Remaining: Cin, SF, at Cle, Ind, at SD, Cle, at Cin

 

Cincinnati Bengals 6-3-0

Games Remaining: at Bal, Cle, at Pit, Hou, at Stl, Ari, Bal

 

Our Take

Look at that easy schedule.  The Steelers have one difficult game remaining, and even if they get toasted at San Francisco, we cannot see Pittsburgh losing more than twice the rest of the way.  We really can only see them losing one more time, even with Ben Roethlisberger’s hand issue.

 

Baltimore is the one team that still enjoys a huge home field advantage.  They play like New England at home and like Cleveland on the road.  They will win their four remaining home games and pull off one on the road to sew up a wildcard spot.

 

Cincinnati must defeat Cleveland, St. Louis, Arizona, and Baltimore (at home), and then they need to pull off an upset.  With Houston in dire straits at quarterback, we feel the Bengals can win that one and earn a wildcard berth.  Marvin Lewis should get NFL Coach of the Year if he can guide this team to the playoffs.

 

AFC South

Houston Texans 7-3-0

Games Remaining: at Jax, Atl, at Cin, Car, at Ind, Ten

 

Tennessee Titans 5-4-0

Games Remaining: at Atl, TB, at Buf, NO, at Ind, Jax, at Hou

 

Our Take

Houston must try to finish the season with Matt Leinart running the offense and with no Andre Johnson to toss to.  Their defense is missing Mario Williams, yet, if the season ended today, the Texans would be the number one seed in the AFC.  That will change, as the Texans will take a tumble following their bye week.  We expect Houston to fare no better than 3-3 in the final six weeks and as weak as 2-4.  Still, at 9-7-0, they can win this unexpectedly weak division.

 

Tennessee can beat the weak teams, and the teams that play poorly on the road, but against quality competition, they do not compete.  The Titans could sneak in at 9-7-0 if the Texans totally collapse, but we feel this is an 8-8-0 team.

 

AFC West

Oakland Raiders 5-4-0

Games Remaining: at Min, Chi, at Mia, at GB, Det, at KC, SD

 

San Diego Chargers 4-5-0

Games Remaining: at Chi, Den, at Jax, Buf, Bal, at Det, at Oak

 

Denver Broncos 4-5-0

Games Remaining: NYJ, at SD, at Min, Chi, NE, at Buf, KC

 

Kansas City Chiefs 4-5-0

Games Remaining: at NE, Pit, at Chi, at NYJ, GB, Oak, at Den

 

Our Take

One team has to finish 8-8-0 or maybe 9-7-0, and all four have tough finishing schedules (any game outside of the division has to be considered tough for these four).

 

Oakland has a one game lead over the other three, and for that reason alone, we will go with the Raiders to return to the playoffs.

 

San Diego has lost more than they have won to this point, and the toughest part of their schedule is still to come.  We cannot fathom the Chargers going 5-2 from here to the end of the season.

 

Kansas City dug themselves too big a hole to dig out of and stand on top of the pile.  They could even lose out against this schedule.

 

As for Denver, what can we say?  They find ways to win when they complete two passes!  Tim Tebow is a 21st Century Bobby Douglass.  He could very well lead the NFL in yards per rush, just like Douglas did in 1972, when he almost rushed for 1,000 yards.  Douglass didn’t take the Bears to the playoffs, and Tebow won’t take the Broncos there either.

 

As We See The Playoffs (this week)

Wildcard Round

#3 New Orleans Saints over #6 Detroit Lions

#5 Chicago Bears over  #4 Dallas Cowboys

 

#6 Cincinnati Bengals over #3 Houston Texans

#4 Oakland Raiders over #5 Baltimore Ravens

 

Divisional Round

#1 Green Bay Packers over Chicago Bears

#2 San Francisco 49ers over New Orleans Saints

 

#1 New England Patriots over Cincinnati Bengals

#2 Pittsburgh Steelers over Oakland Raiders

 

Conference Championships

Green Bay Packers over San Francisco 49ers

Pittsburgh Steelers over New England Patriots

 

Super Bowl

Hey, haven’t we been here before?

Green Bay Packers in a repeat over Pittsburgh Steelers

 

Back To The Present Time—Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Dallas Cowboys

103.1

103.9

103.9

3.5

5

4

0

223

182

New York Giants

103.1

101.9

103.2

1.5

6

3

0

218

211

Philadelphia Eagles

101.2

101.0

101.1

2.5

3

6

0

220

203

Washington Redskins

90.9

92.5

91.7

4.5

3

6

0

136

178

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Green Bay Packers

113.6

113.3

109.5

2.5

9

0

0

320

186

Chicago Bears

107.5

107.2

107.9

3.5

6

3

0

237

187

Detroit Lions

102.0

104.0

106.0

3

6

3

0

252

184

Minnesota Vikings

94.4

94.3

93.9

5

2

7

0

179

244

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New Orleans Saints

106.5

105.7

104.7

4.5

7

3

0

313

228

Atlanta Falcons

105.1

103.6

103.9

2.5

5

4

0

212

196

Tampa Bay Bucaneers

96.1

96.2

98.7

2

4

5

0

156

233

Carolina Panthers

92.5

92.7

97.6

2.5

2

7

0

190

237

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Francisco 49ers

104.6

106.7

106.4

2.5

8

1

0

233

138

Arizona Cardinals

96.3

94.9

99.7

1.5

3

6

0

183

213

St. Louis Rams

94.6

92.3

90.6

3

2

7

0

113

223

Seattle Seahawks

94.5

95.2

96.2

4

3

6

0

144

202

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New England Patriots

107.6

108.5

106.0

2

6

3

0

259

200

New York Jets

104.2

104.0

101.8

2.5

5

4

0

215

200

Miami Dolphins

98.6

97.7

97.8

3

2

7

0

158

178

Buffalo Bills

95.4

98.5

97.7

3.5

5

4

0

229

218

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Pittsburgh Steelers

106.4

106.5

104.1

3.5

7

3

0

220

179

Baltimore Ravens

105.9

105.9

105.2

4.5

6

3

0

225

152

Cincinnati Bengals

99.4

100.0

102.3

2

6

3

0

212

164

Cleveland Browns

92.7

93.0

92.9

2.5

3

6

0

131

183

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Houston Texans

110.0

109.3

107.6

1.5

7

3

0

273

166

Tennessee Titans

99.5

100.2

99.7

2

5

4

0

186

172

Jacksonville Jaguars

99.3

97.7

95.3

3

3

6

0

115

166

Indianapolis Colts

88.6

86.6

87.0

2.5

0

10

0

131

300

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Diego Chargers

99.7

98.9

97.0

3.5

4

5

0

216

228

Oakland Raiders

97.1

98.4

99.2

1

5

4

0

208

233

Kansas City Chiefs

95.8

93.6

93.8

1

4

5

0

141

218

Denver Broncos

94.6

96.0

97.7

2

4

5

0

188

234

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads.

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 10: November 17-21, 2011          
Vegas Line as of Tuesday, November 15 @ 4:00 PM EST         
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
New York Jets DENVER 7.6 6.0 2.1 4 1/2 40 1/2
ATLANTA Tennessee 8.1 5.9 6.7 6    44   
MIAMI Buffalo 6.2 2.2 3.1 2 1/2 43   
BALTIMORE Cincinnati 11.0 10.4 7.4 7    40 1/2
Jacksonville CLEVELAND 4.1 2.2 -0.1 1    35 1/2
MINNESOTA Oakland 2.3 0.9 -0.3 -1 1/2 45   
DETROIT Carolina 12.5 14.3 11.4 7    47 1/2
GREEN BAY Tampa Bay 20.0 19.6 13.3 14 1/2 49   
Dallas WASHINGTON 7.7 6.9 7.7 7 1/2 41 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO Arizona 10.8 14.3 9.2 9 1/2 41 1/2
ST. LOUIS Seattle 3.1 0.1 -2.6 2    39   
CHICAGO San Diego 11.3 11.8 14.4 3 1/2 45   
NEW YORK GIANTS Philadelphia 3.4 2.4 3.6 4    47   
NEW ENGLAND Kansas City 13.8 11.6 14.2 14 1/2 47   
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