The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 13, 2011

PiRate Ratings: College Football for November 15-19, 2011

“Are You Nuts?”

One of our loyal readers asked this question of us last week, when we had Texas A&M ranked number 11, even though the Aggies were 5-4.

 

The short answer to that question is, “probably,” but that is beside the point.  The PiRate Ratings are not rankings based on what a team has done to this point in the season.  Our ratings are 95% predictive; they are meant to indicate where a team is for the coming week’s games.

 

So, even though the future SEC member lost to drop to 5-5, Texas A&M remains at number 14 in the PiRate Ratings.

 

Let us take a look back at yesteryear to further explain how a team like A&M could still be ranked so highly.  We’ll set the time machine back to 1957.  The PiRate Ratings had not yet been created, since none of the PiRates had been created.

 

The team in question in 1957 is Illinois.  The Fighting Illini finished 4-5 that year (Big Ten teams only played nine games a year until the 1960’s and Ohio State still played nine games in 1969).

 

To say that Illinois faced a tough schedule is an understatement.  It was brutal.  The boys from Champaign-Urbana finished the season 4-5, yet some ratings that year gave them the merit they deserved and ranked them in their final ratings.  Even the AP had them rated in the top 20 after seven games, when their record was 3-4.

 

Coach Ray Eliot had some stars on that team, two of whom you may have heard about, because they are in the NFL Hall of Fame.  Linebacker Ray Nitschke became one of the best ever defenders in the NFL, as he led the great Green Bay Packer defenses to five NFL Championships.  Bobby Mitchell began his NFL career as the other back in the Cleveland Browns’ backfield (to Jim Brown).  He earned his Hall of Fame induction after he was traded to the Washington Redskins and was moved to flanker, where he was on the receiving end of hundreds of Sonny Jergensen passes.

 

Illinois opened the season against UCLA at the L. A. Coliseum.  Coach Red Sanders’ Bruins were picked to win the Pacific Coast Conference and go to the Rose Bowl.  They had already played Air Force and won 47-0.  Illinois gave UCLA a good game, but the Bruins prevailed 16-6 en route to an 8-2 season.

 

The following week, Illinois blew out Colgate 40-0.  At 1-1, the Illini ventured to Columbus, Ohio, to take on Ohio State.  The Buckeyes would emerge as the UPI National Champion, as Woody Hayes’ Scarlet and Gray epitomized his “three yards and a cloud of dust” offense that year, setting Ohio State rushing records.  Illinois fought hard and still had a chance to win late in the game, but Ohio State prevailed 21-7.

 

The Illini returned home the following week and hosted number four Minnesota.  The Gophers were 3-0, outscoring opponents 108 to 30.  Illinois played spectacularly and not only pulled off the upset, they slaughtered the Gophers 34-13.

 

Illinois entered the top 20 at number 16 the next week.  The following week, Illinois played at number eight Michigan State (who would finish the season at number two in the UPI Poll and number one in a couple of polls).  The Illini gave Sparty a great game, falling short 19-14 to fall to 2-3.

 

Next up was a visit from Purdue, the only team to beat Michigan State in 1957.  The Boilermakers had the best quarterback in the Big Ten and a future NFL Hall of Famer in Len Dawson.  Illinois fell 21-6, and their record was now 2-4.

 

The following week, Illinois pulled off another big upset, besting number 11 Michigan 20-19.  At 3-4, the Illini actually moved back into the top 20 at number 15.

 

Illinois could not catch a break, as they had to venture to Camp Randall Stadium to play rival Wisconsin, yet another team headed to a finish in the rankings, at number 14.  UW won 24-13, and Illinois was assured of a losing season.

 

The season ended with a visit from rival Northwestern, and Illinois wiped the Wildcats off the field with a 27-0 win to cap off what could have been the best season ever by a team with a losing record.

 

Back to 2011.  Texas A&M began the season with a blowout of SMU, a team that will be bowl bound this year.  They disposed of a weak Idaho team in week two.  In week three, they fell to current number two Oklahoma State 30-29 after blowing a 17-point lead.  They followed it up with a similar loss to current number six Arkansas, blowing a large lead before losing 42-38.  After a five-point win over Texas Tech, before the Red Raiders collapsed, A&M put a major whipping on Baylor by 27 points.  They won at Iowa State by 16 to move to 5-2.  The Aggies have lost three in a row since then, blowing yet another large lead to future SEC rival Missouri, losing to Oklahoma in a game where they proved to be good enough to compete if they had eliminated mistakes, and losing in four overtimes to Kansas State.

 

At 5-5, Texas A&M could easily be 9-1 with wins over Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Kansas State.  They finish with Kansas and Texas and could easily be 6-6 when the bowl are doled out.  They could be pitted against another 6-6 or 7-5 team in their bowl, and it very well may be a huge mismatch.

 

Congrats to Ron English

It went mostly unnoticed this week, but Eastern Michigan became bowl-eligible with a win over Buffalo.  The 6-4 Eagles were expected to win maybe two or three games this year, which would have been a major improvement in itself.  EMU was a combined 2-22 in 2009 and 2010.

 

Here are the PiRate Ratings For This Week

 

#

Team

PiRate

1

L S U

135.5

2

Alabama

135.0

3

Oregon

132.0

4

Oklahoma St.

131.6

5

Oklahoma

131.6

6

Stanford

129.6

7

Wisconsin

124.8

8

Southern Cal

123.9

9

Florida St.

122.6

10

Arkansas

121.9

11

Boise St.

120.2

12

Georgia 

119.8

13

Notre Dame

119.5

14

Texas A&M

119.3

15

Missouri

117.2

16

Michigan St.

116.4

17

Texas

115.8

18

Michigan

115.7

19

Nebraska

114.9

20

T C U

114.8

21

S. Carolina

114.7

22

Houston

114.5

23

Clemson

114.3

24

Utah

113.1

25

Virginia Tech

113.0

26

Arizona St.

112.8

27

Kansas St.

112.7

28

Miami (FL)

112.5

29

Florida 

112.3

30

Washington

110.7

31

Mississippi St.

110.5

32

California

110.0

33

Tulsa

108.7

34

Cincinnati

108.7

35

B Y U

108.4

36

Ohio St.

108.4

37

Vanderbilt

108.1

38

Southern Miss.

107.6

39

Penn St.

107.1

40

W. Virginia

107.0

41

Nevada

106.2

42

Georgia Tech

106.1

43

Baylor

106.0

44

Pittsburgh

104.6

45

U C L A

104.5

46

Iowa

103.9

47

Virginia

103.6

48

Auburn

103.6

49

Northwestern

103.3

50

N. Carolina

103.2

51

Wake Forest

103.2

52

Washington St.

102.8

53

LouisianaTech

102.8

54

S. Florida

102.7

55

N. Carolina St.

101.7

56

Oregon St.

101.7

57

Tennessee

101.6

58

Arizona

101.4

59

Illinois

101.3

60

Louisville

99.9

61

Purdue

99.3

62

Utah St.

99.3

63

Rutgers

99.1

64

Boston Coll.

98.9

65

Toledo

98.2

66

Iowa St.

98.2

67

Air Force

97.9

68

Temple

97.3

69

Northern Illinois

97.3

70

San Diego St.

97.2

71

Texas Tech

97.2

72

Central Florida

96.9

73

Navy

96.7

74

Hawaii

96.6

75

Duke

96.2

76

Wyoming

95.9

77

Connecticut

95.3

78

Colorado

95.3

79

S M U

94.3

80

Arkansas St.

93.5

81

Minnesota

93.3

82

Maryland

93.2

83

Western Michigan

93.1

84

San Jose St.

92.0

85

Syracuse

91.3

86

Miami (O)

91.1

87

Kentucky

91.1

88

Ole Miss

90.5

89

Kansas

90.3

90

East Carolina

90.1

91

Fresno St.

89.4

92

Ohio U

88.9

93

U T E P

88.4

94

Western Ky.

87.8

95

Florida Int’l

87.7

96

New Mexico St.

85.8

97

Marshall

85.8

98

Army

85.6

99

UL-Lafayette

85.4

100

UL-Monroe

85.4

101

Colorado St.

84.4

102

Rice

84.1

103

Idaho

83.8

104

Indiana

83.2

105

Bowling Green

82.5

106

Ball St.

82.2

107

Kent St.

81.2

108

Eastern Michigan

80.9

109

North Texas

80.1

110

U A B

78.2

111

U N L V

78.1

112

Central Michigan

77.7

113

Troy

75.8

114

Middle Tennessee

73.5

115

Buffalo

73.0

116

New Mexico

70.4

117

Tulane

67.7

118

Memphis

66.8

119

Akron

65.1

120

Florida Atlantic

63.2

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaState

5-2

7-3

122.6

Clemson

6-1

9-1

114.3

WakeForest

4-3

5-5

103.2

North CarolinaState

2-4

5-5

101.7

BostonCollege

2-5

3-7

98.9

Maryland

1-5

2-8

93.2

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

5-1

9-1

113.0

Miami-FL

3-4

5-5

112.5

Georgia Tech

4-3

7-3

106.1

Virginia

4-2

7-3

103.6

North Carolina

2-4

6-4

103.2

Duke

1-5

3-7

96.2

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Cincinnati

3-1

7-2

108.7

West Virginia

3-2

7-3

107.0

Pittsburgh

3-2

5-5

104.6

South Florida

1-4

5-4

102.7

Louisville

3-2

5-5

99.9

Rutgers

3-2

7-3

99.1

Connecticut

2-2

4-5

95.3

Syracuse

1-4

5-5

91.3

 

Big Ten

       
Leaders Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Wisconsin

4-2

8-2

124.8

OhioState

3-3

6-4

108.4

PennState

5-1

8-2

107.1

Illinois

2-4

6-4

101.3

Purdue

3-3

5-5

99.3

Indiana

0-6

1-9

83.2

       
Legends Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

MichiganState

5-1

8-2

116.4

Michigan

4-2

8-2

115.7

Nebraska

4-2

8-2

114.9

Iowa

3-3

6-4

103.9

Northwestern

2-4

5-5

103.3

Minnesota

1-5

2-8

93.3

 

Big 12

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma State

7-0

10-0

131.6

Oklahoma

5-1

8-1

131.6

Texas A&M

3-4

5-5

119.3

Missouri

3-4

5-5

117.2

Texas

3-3

6-3

115.8

Kansas State

5-2

8-2

112.7

Baylor

3-3

6-3

106.0

Iowa State

2-4

5-4

98.2

Texas Tech

2-5

5-5

97.2

Kansas

0-7

2-8

90.3

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

5-1

9-1

107.6

Central Florida

2-4

4-6

96.9

East Carolina

3-3

4-6

90.1

Marshall

3-3

4-6

85.8

U A B

2-5

2-8

78.2

Memphis

1-4

2-8

66.8

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

6-0

10-0

114.5

Tulsa

6-0

7-3

108.7

S M U

4-2

6-4

94.3

U T E P

2-4

5-5

88.4

Rice

2-4

3-7

84.1

Tulane

1-6

2-9

67.7

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

7-3

119.5

B Y U  

7-3

108.4

Navy  

4-6

96.7

Army  

3-7

85.6

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

4-3

6-4

97.3

Miami (O)

3-3

4-6

91.1

Ohio U

4-2

7-3

88.9

Bowling Green

2-4

4-6

82.5

Kent St.

3-3

4-6

81.2

Buffalo

1-5

2-8

73.0

Akron

0-6

1-9

65.1

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Toledo

5-1

6-4

98.2

Northern Illinois

5-1

7-3

97.3

Western Michigan

3-3

5-5

93.1

Ball State

4-2

6-4

82.2

Eastern Michigan

4-2

6-4

80.9

Central Michigan

2-5

3-8

77.7

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Boise State

3-1

8-1

120.2

T C U

5-0

8-2

114.8

Air Force

1-4

5-5

97.9

San Diego State

3-2

6-3

97.2

Wyoming

3-1

6-3

95.9

Colorado State

1-3

3-6

84.4

UNLV

1-3

2-7

78.1

New Mexico

1-4

1-9

70.4

 

Pac-12 Conference

       
North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oregon

7-0

9-1

132.0

Stanford

7-1

9-1

129.6

Washington

4-3

6-4

110.7

California

3-4

6-4

110.0

WashingtonState

2-5

4-6

102.8

OregonState

2-5

2-8

101.7

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

U S C

5-2

8-2

123.9

Utah

3-4

6-4

113.1

ArizonaState

4-3

6-4

112.8

U C L A

4-3

5-5

104.5

Arizona

1-6

2-8

101.4

Colorado

1-6

2-9

95.3

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Georgia

6-1

8-2

119.8

South Carolina

6-2

8-2

114.7

Florida

3-5

5-5

112.3

Vanderbilt

2-5

5-5

108.1

Tennessee

0-6

4-6

101.6

Kentucky

1-5

4-6

91.1

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

L S U

6-0

10-0

135.5

Alabama

6-1

9-1

135.0

Arkansas

5-1

9-1

121.9

Mississippi State

1-5

5-5

110.5

Auburn

4-3

6-4

103.6

Ole Miss

0-6

2-8

90.5

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Arkansas State

6-0

8-2

93.5

Western Kentucky

5-1

5-5

87.8

Florida International

3-3

6-4

87.7

Louisiana-Monroe

2-4

3-7

85.9

U. of Louisiana

6-2

8-3

84.9

North Texas

3-3

4-6

80.1

Troy

1-4

2-7

75.8

Middle Tennessee

1-4

2-7

73.5

Florida Atlantic

0-6

0-9

63.2

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nevada

4-0

6-3

106.2

Louisiana Tech

4-1

6-4

102.8

Utah State

2-2

4-5

99.3

Hawaii

3-3

5-5

96.6

San Jose State

2-4

3-7

92.0

Fresno State

2-3

3-7

89.4

New Mexico State

2-3

4-6

85.8

Idaho

1-4

2-8

83.8

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Spreads.

 

Tuesday, November 15  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

NORTHERN ILLINOIS Ball St.

18.1

42-24

17   

   

 

 

 

Wednesday, November 16  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

MIAMI (O) Western Michigan

1.0

34-33

1   

Ohio U BOWLING GREEN

3.9

31-27

5   

   

 

 

 

Thursday, November 17  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

VIRGINIA TECH North Carolina

13.3

23-10

13   

Marshall MEMPHIS

16.5

34-17

13   

Southern Miss. U A B

26.9

37-10

22 1/2

   

 

 

 

Friday, November 18  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Toledo CENTRAL MICHIGAN

18.0

45-27

15   

Oklahoma St. IOWA ST.

30.4

47-17

27 1/2

   

 

 

 

Saturday, November 19  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

NORTHWESTERN Minnesota

13.0

34-21

15 1/2

Wisconsin ILLINOIS

20.5

38-17

13 1/2

Iowa PURDUE

1.6

28-26

2 1/2

MICHIGAN ST. Indiana

36.7

51-17

28   

Louisville CONNECTICUT

1.6

24-22

1   

Georgia Tech DUKE

7.4

31-24

10   

WAKE FOREST Maryland

12.5

30-17

12   

FLORIDA ST. Virginia

22.0

38-16

18   

Clemson NORTH CAROLINA ST.

9.6

27-17

10   

BUFFALO Akron

10.4

31-21

10   

GEORGIA Kentucky

32.2

42-10

29 1/2

Vanderbilt TENNESSEE

3.5

28-24

1   

MISSOURI Texas Tech

23.0

44-21

16 1/2

KENT ST. Eastern Michigan

2.8

31-28

6 1/2

TEMPLE Army

14.2

31-17

NL

WYOMING New Mexico

28.5

42-13

26   

B Y U New Mexico St.

25.6

45-19

22 1/2

Tulsa U T E P

17.3

41-24

NL

RICE Tulane

18.9

38-19

12 1/2

TEXAS A&M Kansas

32.0

49-17

30   

Utah WASHINGTON ST.

6.8

30-23

6   

L s u OLE MISS

42.0

45-3

30 1/2

T C U Colorado St.

33.4

40-7

35 1/2

Washington OREGON ST.

6.0

30-24

3   

ARIZONA ST. Arizona

13.9

31-17

14 1/2

STANFORD California

22.1

42-20

20 1/2

MICHIGAN Nebraska

3.8

24-20

2 1/2

U C L A Colorado

12.2

28-16

14   

Central Florida EAST CAROLINA

3.8

31-27

8   

OHIO ST. Penn St.

4.3

14-10

5 1/2

Cincinnati RUTGERS

6.6

31-24

1 1/2

TEXAS Kansas St.

6.1

34-28

7   

NOTRE DAME Boston College

23.6

34-10

24 1/2

Navy SAN JOSE ST.

1.7

26-24

5 1/2

NEVADA Louisiana Tech

6.9

35-28

7 1/2

Utah St. IDAHO

12.5

37-24

7   

AIR FORCE U n l v

22.8

33-10

NL

HOUSTON S m u

23.2

44-21

21 1/2

ARKANSAS Mississippi St.

14.4

31-17

14 1/2

Miami (FL) SOUTH FLORIDA

6.8

28-21

1 1/2

Oklahoma BAYLOR

22.6

42-19

14   

OREGON Southern Cal

11.6

31-19

16 1/2

Boise St. SAN DIEGO ST.

20.0

37-17

20   

HAWAII Fresno St.

11.2

35-24

4   

TROY Florida Atlantic

15.1

35-20

14 1/2

Western Kentucky NORTH TEXAS

4.7

28-23

2 1/2

LOUISIANA-MONROE Florida Int’l

0.7

28-27

-1   

Arkansas St. MIDDLETENNESSEE

18.5

31-12

11   

 

 

And, here is our Bowl speculation for the week.

 

Bowl

Conference

Conference

Team

Team

New Mexico

MWC # 5

Pac12 #7 / WAC

Wyoming

Nevada

Famous Idaho Potato

MWC #2 or 4

WAC

Boise St.

Utah St.

New Orleans

Sunbelt #1

C-USA

Arkansas St.

(Louisville)

Beef O’Brady’s

Big East #6

C-USA

South Florida

Florida Int’l

Poinsettia

MWC #2 or 4

WAC

San Diego St.

Louisiana Tech

MAACO

MWC #1

Pac 12 #5

T C U

Utah

Hawaii

WAC

C-USA

Hawaii

S M U

Independence

ACC #7

MWC #3

Miami (Fl)

Air Force

Little Caesar’s Pizza

Big 10 #8

MAC #2

Illinois

Toledo

Belk

ACC #5

Big East #3

North Carolina

West Va.

Military

ACC #8

Navy

Virginia

Navy

Holiday

Pac 12 #3

Big 12 #5

Arizona St.

Texas A&M

Champs Sports

Big East #2

ACC #3

Notre Dame

Florida St.

Alamo

Big 12 #3

Pac 10 #2

Kansas St.

Washington

Armed Forces

C-USA #3

B Y U

Marshall

B Y U

Pinstripe

Big East #4

Big 12 #7

Pittsburgh

(Northwestern)

Music City

SEC # 7

ACC #6

Mississippi St.

North Carolina St.

Insight

Big 12 #4

Big 10 #4 or 5

Missouri

Penn St.

Meineke Car Care of Texas

Big 12 #6

Big 10 #6

Baylor

Ohio St.

Sun

ACC #4

Pac 12 #4

Georgia Tech

California

Kraft Fight Hunger

Pac 10 #6

Army/ACC

U C L A

Wake Forest

Liberty

SEC#8-9/BigEast

C-USA #1

Vanderbilt

Southern Miss.

Chick-fil-A

SEC #5

ACC #2

Auburn

Clemson

TicketCity

Big 10 #7

C-USA

Iowa

Tulsa

Capital One

Big 10 #2

SEC #2

Michigan St.

Arkansas

Gator

Big 10 #4 or 5

SEC #6

Nebraska

Florida

Outback

SEC #3 or 4

Big 10 #3

South Carolina

Michigan

Rose

BCS Pac12

BCS Big 10

Oregon

Wisconsin

Fiesta

BCS Big 12

BCS At-Large

Oklahoma

Stanford

Sugar

BCS SEC

BCS At-Large

Alabama

Houston

Orange

BCS ACC

BCS At-Large

Va. Tech

Rutgers

Cotton

Big 12 #2

SEC #3 or 4

Texas

Georgia

BBVA Compass

Big East#5/CUSA

SEC #8 or 9

Cincinnati

Western Ky.

GoDaddy.com

Sunbelt # 2

MAC #1

Louisiana-Laf.

Northern Illinois

National Championship

*** BCS #1 ***

*** BCS #2 ***

L S U

Oklahoma St.

 

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