PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 7–October 23-24, 2011

Two Big Rivalries Renewed This Week

First, let us give ourselves a hearty slap on the back for jinxing the possible monumental Thanksgiving Day game between Green Bay and Detroit.  The 49ers had the last slap laugh in that matter.

 

Speaking of Green Bay, the Packers and Vikings renew their rivalry at Lambeau Field this Sunday.  In the AFC, the Chiefs and Raiders square off in Oakland.  These two games are two of the best all-time rivalry games over the last 50 years.  In this writer’s opinion, both rivalries matured at the same time the Super Bowl came into existence.  Let’s take a look at the key games to show you that you never can predict these games.

 

Green Bay vs. Minnesota

1966

The Packers were coming off an NFL Championship, their third in the last five years, and Coach Vince Lombardi’s team was headed to a 12-2 regular season and win in Super Bowl I.  The Vikings were just 2-4-1 when they ventured to Lambeau Field to face the 6-1 Packers.  As usual between these teams in those days, it was a hard-fought trench war that pre-dated the “Black and Blue Division” moniker given the old NFC Central Division.

 

Green Bay led this game 17-10 as the fourth quarter began, but the underdog Vikings scored 10 points in the final minutes to upset the Packers 20-17.  Big plodding fullback Bill Brown blasted into the end zone from a yard out to cap a final drive that produced the winning points.  It wouldn’t be the last time Brown pulled off that feat.

 

1967

Once again, the Packers were headed to a Super Bowl title, while the Vikings were going nowhere.  In fact, coming into Lambeau Field, the Purple and White sported an 0-4 record, while Green Bay had yet to lose a game.

 

The weather was cold and dreary, and the game turned into a defensive struggle for most of the day.  Green Bay led 7-0 with less than a quarter to play, when Brown did it again.  He capped a drive with a one yard plunge up the middle to tie the score, and then he converted a couple of first downs to set up a winning Fred Cox field goal, as Minnesota won 10-7.

 

1970

This time, the shoe was on the other foot.  Green Bay was no longer a power, while Minnesota was the defending NFL Champions (They had won the final NFL title by defeating Cleveland, but lost in the Super Bowl to Kansas City).

 

Coach Bud Grant and his Purple People Eaters were on their way to a second consecutive 12-2 season, while Green Bay was headed to a 6-8 season in what would prove to be Coach Phil Bengston’s last year, and Bart Starr’s last full year as the regular quarterback. 

 

The Packers had lost to Detroit 40-0 a couple weeks earlier, and nobody gave Green Bay a chance even at home.  The Packers pulled off the surprise of the week with a 13-10 upset.  Donny Anderson ran the sweep almost like the good ole days, and Dave Hampton returned a kickoff for a touchdown.

 

1972

In 1972, Coach Dan Devine took the Packers to their last full season (not counting a 5-3-1 record in the strike-shortened 1982 season) division championship prior to Brett Favre’s run.  The Packers were 4-2, while the Vikings were 2-4 as they squared off in Green Bay.

 

The Purple People Eaters ate quarterback Scott Hunter in the fourth quarter, returning two interceptions for touchdowns as Minnesota pulled off the 27-13 upset.

 

Oakland vs. Kansas City

Some fans say this rivalry became intense when the Kansas City Athletics baseball team moved to Oakland.  However, the rivalry goes back much farther.  It was already intense when the Chiefs were still the Dallas Texans, but it became fierce and hated once the American Football League had an agreement in place to merge in four years and would play the NFL champion in the Super Bowl.

 

1966

The Chiefs were headed to the AFL title and would represent the league in Super Bowl I.  The Raiders were a decent team but lacked consistency at quarterback.  When these two squared off at Municipal Stadium in Kansas City, Oakland was 2-3, while Kansas City was 4-1 having split with the two-time defending AFL champion Bills.

 

On this day, the Raiders got what they needed from their quarterback.  Future Raiders’ head coach Tom Flores threw for 300+ yards and three touchdowns, including a 75-yard strike to former Heisman Trophy winner Billy Cannon, who had been converted into an end by Coach John Rauch.

 

Meanwhile, the tough Raider defense knocked Chiefs’ running back Mike Garrett out of the game after he had rushed just three times for a loss of two yards.  Garrett had entered the game averaging better than six yards per carry.  Oakland won 34-13.

 

1968

After the Raiders destroyed the rest of the league in 1967 with their new quarterback, the mad bomber Daryle Lamonica, it was expected that they would repeat and possibly go 14-0. 

 

Kansas City rebounded from a 9-5 season and looked more like the Green Bay Packers than an AFL team.  They ran the ball with power and speed, and when defenses tried to stop the run, quarterback Len Dawson threw long passes to Otis Taylor and Fred Arbanas. 

 

Both teams entered this game at 4-1, having lost to the two best remaining teams in the AFL.  Kansas City lost by a point to Joe Namath and the Jets, while Oakland had been upset by a San Diego team that would forge a three-way tie at 8-2 later in the season before collapsing after Thanksgiving.

 

This game was supposed to be the game of the year, but something happened leading up to it.  The Chiefs suffered injuries to their entire receiving corps.  Coach Hank Stram did not have a single healthy receiver.  Rather than sign multiple receivers off the waiver wire or try to make do with taxi squad players, he did what only Stram would ever think of doing.  He installed a full-house T-formation offense straight out of the 1940’s.  He even used two tight ends and no wide receivers.

 

Of course, an offense like that was easy to stuff and completely shut down—correct?  No, not correct, as the Chiefs ran power plays, trap plays, and misdirection plays that the Silver and Black could not stop.

 

Over and over, Kansas City sustained long, time-consuming drives.  Dawson threw three play-action passes all day and completed two for 16 yards, one of them to a back.

 

The three Chief backs, Mike Garrett, Robert Holmes, and Wendell Hayes teamed for 293 rushing yards on 57 attempts.  Kansas City upset the Raiders 24-10, and this game may have been the beginning of the end for Coach Rauch and his unbeatable team.

 

1968, part two

The Raiders and Chiefs ended the regular season tied at 12-2, and the AFL had a playoff game to determine which Western Division team would face the Jets for the AFL Championship a week later.

 

Kansas City had given up just 170 points in 14 games, which was 29 points better than any other defense in the nine year history of the AFL.  Oakland had nearly equaled its offensive mayhem of 1967, scoring 453 points.  This game was expected to be the best game ever played in the AFL.

 

It wasn’t.  It was over before halftime, as the Raiders destroyed the Chiefs 41-6.  Lamonica threw five touchdown passes on his way to almost 350 yards passing.  Fred Biletnikoff caught three of those TD tosses.

 

The vaunted Kansas City running game ground to a halt, as the terrific trio gained just 61 yards on 22 attempts.

 

1969

In the last season of the AFL, the league instituted a new playoff rule.  Because the league had expanded to 10 teams, and because the NFL had four divisions with four playoff teams, the AFL decided to add the runners-up from its two divisions to the playoff mix.  Thus, the second place team in each division would play at the first place team in the opposite division, with the two winners playing for the AFL title a week later.

 

It was no surprise that Oakland and Kansas City won the two playoff spots in the Western Division.  However, Oakland was clearly the better team.  Under first year head coach John Madden, the Raiders had gone 12-1-1, losing only to the Cincinnati Bengal’s great passer Greg Cook before he suffered a career-ending injury.

 

Kansas City finished 11-3, relying on great defense and just enough offense without making mistakes. 

 

The Raiders beat the Chiefs handily three times that year.  The first did not count because it came in the preseason, but the other two were regular season games.

 

In the opening round of the playoffs, the Raiders humiliated Houston 56-7 in what was the second worst playoff margin ever.  Kansas City prevented the New York Jets from repeating as World Champions, which set up a fourth meeting between the two bitter rivals.

 

Coach Stram prepared well hoping to stop Lamonica and Biletnikoff and making Oakland beat them with their ground game.  Oakland did not cow-tow to any team and refused to alter their playing style for any opponent, especially the team they hated more than they hated the hippies across the bay.

 

Lamonica did not last the full 60 minutes.  A sack late midway through the third quarter ended his day, and greybeard George Blanda was forced into action.  He could not move the Raiders’ offense, and Kansas City held on for a 17-7 win.  The Chiefs picked off four Oakland passes and became the final AFL Champion.

 

1970

Of all the rivalry games between these two teams, this was the fiercest of all.  Not only did it produce multiple free-for-alls, including one of the worst bench-clearing brawls in football history, it even produced a rules change.

 

Neither team was great by this time.  The Colts and Dolphins were now the two best teams in the new AFC.  However, the new AFC West was going to be won by one of these two teams.

 

When the two heavyweights faced off in Kansas City, it was the Chiefs that dominated the game for most of the day.  However, they could only muster two touchdowns and a field goal and led 17-14 in the fourth quarter.

 

The Chiefs had the ball in their own territory and only needed a couple first downs to run out the clock.  They got the first one and had a crucial third down play coming up.  Quarterback Dawson rolled out as if to pass and then saw enough running room to pick up the first down, even on his old legs.  He sprinted to the far side of the field and dove past the first down marker for an apparent first down that would seal the game.

 

However, that was not the end of the play.  The Raiders’ biggest villain of all, Ben Davidson (who sported a handlebar mustache before A’s pitcher Rollie Fingers), speared Dawson after the play was over.

 

Otis Taylor then threw a punch at Davidson, and the game turned into a professional wrestling match, except the punches and fighting were not pre-planned.  Both benches cleared, and the referees had a hard time restoring order.  When they separated the two teams, they held a conference.  Their decision was to toss out both Davidson and Taylor and call offsetting personal foul penalties. 

 

In those days, offsetting penalties after the end of the play nullified the play, so Kansas City had to convert the third down play again.  This time, Oakland stopped them and forced the Chiefs to punt.  The Raiders had just enough time to complete two passes and attempt a long field goal.  Blanda converted from just across midfield (goalposts were at the goal line in those days), and the Raiders left Kansas City with a 17-17 tie.

 

As it turned out, this tie game was all that prevented Kansas City from winning the division.  Oakland finished 8-4-2, while Kansas City finished 7-5-2.  Both teams would have been 8-5-1 had the fight not affected the outcome of the game.  The Chiefs would have won the tiebreaker.

 

Because of that game, the NFL changed the dead ball personal foul rule so that it could not nullify a play after it happened.

 

The PiRate Ratings For Week 7

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New York Giants	102.5	99.7	103.2	1.5	4	–	2	–	0	154	147
Dallas Cowboys	101.9	103.2	102.0	0.5	2	–	3	–	0	115	121
Philadelphia Eagles	101.7	101.6	99.2	2	2	–	4	–	0	145	145
Washington Redskins	95.8	98.2	101.0	3.5	3	–	2	–	0	96	83
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Green Bay Packers	110.9	110.0	109.0	2	6	–	0	–	0	197	114
Chicago Bears	103.6	102.9	104.4	2.5	3	–	3	–	0	146	132
Detroit Lions	103.0	105.4	105.8	3	5	–	1	–	0	178	114
Minnesota Vikings	96.1	96.5	95.3	4	1	–	5	–	0	121	145
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New Orleans Saints	106.3	104.7	104.1	3.5	4	–	2	–	0	177	151
Atlanta Falcons	102.1	100.4	99.9	3.5	3	–	3	–	0	135	147
Tampa Bay Bucaneers	98.8	98.4	100.0	2.5	4	–	2	–	0	113	145
Carolina Panthers	93.8	95.5	96.3	2.5	1	–	5	–	0	133	163
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Francisco 49ers	104.4	106.7	104.3	2.5	5	–	1	–	0	167	97
Seattle Seahawks	94.5	95.6	94.8	1.5	2	–	3	–	0	94	122
Arizona Cardinals	92.0	93.2	95.1	3	1	–	4	–	0	96	121
St. Louis Rams	91.5	91.0	87.9	2	0	–	5	–	0	49	137
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New England Patriots	107.6	108.8	105.6	2.5	5	–	1	–	0	185	135
New York Jets	103.7	104.1	101.2	3	3	–	3	–	0	145	131
Buffalo Bills	100.1	102.2	105.4	3.5	4	–	2	–	0	188	147
Miami Dolphins	96.1	94.6	91.7	3	0	–	5	–	0	75	128
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Baltimore Ravens	110.4	110.2	109.9	3.5	4	–	1	–	0	148	71
Pittsburgh Steelers	105.3	102.9	102.1	3	4	–	2	–	0	119	102
Cincinnati Bengals	97.9	100.1	101.5	2.5	4	–	2	–	0	137	111
Cleveland Browns	93.7	93.8	95.7	1	2	–	3	–	0	91	117
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Houston Texans	103.7	102.5	103.4	2	3	–	3	–	0	141	124
Tennessee Titans	100.1	100.6	101.7	3.5	3	–	2	–	0	105	94
Indianapolis Colts	95.2	92.4	91.9	2	0	–	6	–	0	104	163
Jacksonville Jaguars	94.8	93.5	92.7	1.5	1	–	5	–	0	72	132
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Diego Chargers	103.6	101.5	101.6	1	4	–	1	–	0	120	109
Oakland Raiders	100.3	101.6	102.6	2	4	–	2	–	0	160	150
Kansas City Chiefs	96.6	93.2	94.8	1	2	–	3	–	0	77	150
Denver Broncos	92.6	95.2	95.9	2.5	1	–	4	–	0	105	140

 

This Week’s Games (Tally ho, to Wembley we go!)

Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 7: October 23-24, 2011
Vegas Line as of Tuesday, October 18, 2:00 PM EDT

 

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Chicago  (n)	Tampa Bay (London)	4.8	4.5	4.4	1	44
CAROLINA	Washington	0.5	-0.2	-2.2	2 1/2	44
NEW YORK JETS	San Diego	3.1	5.6	2.6	-2	45
CLEVELAND	Seattle	0.2	-0.8	1.9	3	40 1/2
Houston	TENNESSEE	0.1	-1.6	-1.8	-3	44 1/2
MIAMI	Denver	6.5	2.4	-1.2	2	42 1/2
DETROIT	Atlanta	3.9	8.0	8.9	3 1/2	47 1/2
OAKLAND	Kansas City	5.7	10.4	9.8	3 1/2	41 1/2
Pittsburgh	ARIZONA	10.3	6.7	4.0	3 1/2	42
DALLAS	St. Louis	10.9	12.7	14.6	13	43
Green Bay	MINNESOTA	10.8	9.5	9.7	8	47
NEW ORLEANS	Indianapolis	14.6	15.8	15.7	14	48
Baltimore	JACKSONVILLE	14.1	15.2	15.7	7 1/2	39