The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 14, 2011

PiRate Picks For College And Pro Football–October 15-17, 2011

PiRate Picks Warming Up

After a slow start, our picks have gone 18-9-1 the last two weeks.  Last week’s picks finished 9-4-0, with the 10 college selections going 8-2-0.  For the year, our most accurate selection type has been the college moneyline parlay.  We have made 16 selections and have been correct 12 times for 75% against the spread.  Our 13-point teasers were going along quite well until last week.  For the season, those picks are 9-7-0.  It gets harder to find good NFL 13-point teasers during bye weeks, due to the fewer number of games played.

 

This week, we are going to stick with what is hot.  As the college football season hits the midway point for most teams, upsets become less frequent—not by a large percentage, but still enough to be meaningful.  Most teams have settled in to what they will be for the season—either: really good, really bad, or mediocre.

 

Before we get to our regular picks this week, let us show you a little trick we have picked up in our many years of selecting games against the spread.  It involves a moneyline parlay wheel in a sort of way.

 

Look at the New Mexico State and Idaho game.  One sportsbook has the moneylines for that game at Idaho -108 and New Mexico State -102.  Obviously, this is almost a tossup, and both teams are listed at better than the 10-11 odds of playing this game straight up.

 

How can we virtually guarantee ourselves a profitable weekend and not worry about any other outcomes?  It’s simple.  All we have to do is find a couple of obvious mismatch games and form two parlays—one taking Idaho and one taking New Mexico State.  It will lead to winning one and losing one, but with an overall profit.  Here is how it goes:

 

We believe that Tulsa has a 99% chance of beating UAB and Nevada has a 99.9% chance of beating New Mexico.  Combine both of these games with both sides of our tossup turns both parlays to the plus side.  Tulsa is listed at -1250 and Nevada is listed at -6000.

 

Using our trusty parlay calculator, combining these two heavy favorites with Idaho makes this parlay’s odds move to +111.47; combining them with New Mexico State makes that parlay’s odds move to +117.45.  If we put the same amount of investment on both games, then there is a 98.9% chance we will win one and lose one.  If New Mexico State wins their game, our payoff odds will be $17.45 for the $200 invested for 8.725% profit in one day.  If Idaho wins, our payoff odds will be $11.47 for the $200 invested for 5.735% profit.  Our expected payoff odds average out to 7.23% for one afternoon.  If you had 25K to invest in this double parlay, you would win either $2,181.25 or $1,433.75 for the week; it is not a great killing, but it is a nice profit.  In these tough times, 7.23% profit in one year would be excellent on Wall Street, and even better, nobody will be protesting on your lawn with signs saying, “Occupy Will’s Street.”

 

Playing just that double parlay would be enough, but it is not really entertaining.  We are all about trying to win legitimately and not technically, so here are our regular picks.

 

1. Moneyline Parlay (5 teams @ -127)

LSU over Tennessee

Washington over Colorado

Georgia over Vanderbilt

Tulsa over U A B

Nevada over New Mexico

 

2. Moneyline Parlay (3 teams @ -111)

Penn State over Purdue

Toledo over Bowling Green

Missouri over Iowa State

 

3. Moneyline Parlay (2 teams @ -122)

Clemson over Maryland

Georgia Tech over Virginia

 

4. Moneyline Parlay (2 teams @ -119)

Oregon over Arizona State

Rutgers over Navy

 

5. 13-point Teaser

Purdue +25 vs. Penn State

Rutgers +9 ½ vs. Navy

Florida State – ½ vs. Duke

Oregon – 1 ½ vs. Arizona State

 

6. 13-point Teaser

L S U -4 vs. Tennessee

Washington – 2 ½ vs. Colorado

Ohio State +16 ½ vs. Illinois

Stanford -8 vs. Washington State

 

7. 13-point Teaser

Georgia Tech +6 vs. Virginia

Missouri -2 ½ vs. Iowa State

Western Michigan +12 vs. Northern Illinois

East Carolina -1 vs. Memphis

 

8. 13-point Teaser

Green Bay -1 ½ vs. St. Louis

Pittsburgh + ½ vs. Jacksonville

Indianapolis +20 vs. Cincinnati

New England +6 ½ vs. Dallas

 

9. 13-point Teaser

Carolina +17 vs. Atlanta

Buffalo +16 vs. New York Giants

Oakland +6 ½ vs. Cleveland

New Orleans +8 ½ vs. Tampa Bay

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