Could Thanksgiving Day Become The NFL Equivalent Of Turkey Day 1971?
In our college ratings entry earlier this week, we discussed the various “Game of the Century” games since 1946. We concluded that the 1971 Nebraska-Oklahoma game was the best of the best. Could Thanksgiving Day this year prove to be the NFL equivalent of 1971?
Green Bay and Detroit both sit at 5-0 with five more games to play before they face off in Detroit on Thanksgiving morning. The NFL has never had a contest of 10-0 teams. The chances that both the Lions and Packers will both win their next five games are infinitesimal, but it is okay to look forward to that small possibility.
In 1990, the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers both started 10-0 and faced off two weeks later. Unfortunately, both teams lost in game 11, making them 10-1 when they played. The 49ers won that game, but the Giants won the Super Bowl.
In 1967, the Los Angeles Rams hosted the Baltimore Colts in the season finale, with the Rams entering the game at 10-1-2 and the Colts at 11-0-2. The Rams won, knocking the 11-1-2 Colts out of the playoffs!
On Thanksgiving Day of 1962, the Lions were 8-2 when they upset the 10-0 Packers 26-14, after leading 23-0 at the half. Bart Starr was sacked 10 times that day, but the Packers recovered to win out and take their second consecutive NFL Championship, while the Lions missed out on the Championship Game at 11-3-0 and had to settle for a Playoff Bowl win over Pittsburgh.
No Offense, But
Offense is dominating defense after five weeks in the 2011 NFL season. The 32 NFL Teams are averaging greater than 370 yards per game and passing for more than 259 yards per game. The average quarterback playing every snap, or close to it, will top 4,100 passing yards this season.
Tom Brady is on pace to pass for almost 6,000 yards, while Drew Brees is on pace to become the first quarterback to pass the ball 700 times in a season.
Wes Welker is on pace to catch 144 passes and gain 2,368 yards, while Calvin Johnson is on pace to catch 29 touchdown passes.
The average NFL team is scoring just over 23 points per game, which means it is taking more than 16 yards to score a point. That number is quite high. 13 yards is the norm.
Keep Losing and We Might Get LUCKy
To the worst team in the league goes the first pick in the 2013 draft, and barring a devastating injury, that first pick will be the most important pick since the Indianapolis Colts selected Peyton Manning in 1998.
Andrew Luck has the capability of becoming the next Manning, next John Elway, next Tom Brady, and next Drew Brees. After five weeks, Miami, Indianapolis, and St. Louis are still winless. The Colts should have Manning back next year, and he should be good for another two or three years. The Rams have Sam Bradford, and even though Luck is better than Bradford, it would be like the St. Louis Cardinals trading away Stan Musial for Ted Williams. The Dolphins need a quarterback, and Miami is a great location for a celebrity player of his caliber. Of the one-win teams, Minnesota and Arizona could take an upgrade at quarterback, but they have large investments in Donovan McNabb and Kevin Kolb.
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
| NFC East |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| New York Giants |
102.5 |
99.2 |
101.5 |
1 |
3 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
127 |
123 |
| Dallas Cowboys |
101.2 |
102.8 |
99.2 |
1 |
2 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
99 |
101 |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
100.4 |
98.9 |
98.0 |
1.5 |
1 |
– |
4 |
– |
0 |
125 |
132 |
| Washington Redskins |
97.1 |
99.5 |
102.2 |
3.5 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
83 |
63 |
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| NFC North |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| Green Bay Packers |
110.9 |
109.1 |
110.3 |
3 |
5 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
173 |
111 |
| Detroit Lions |
105.1 |
106.3 |
107.3 |
4 |
5 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
159 |
89 |
| Chicago Bears |
100.4 |
100.9 |
101.7 |
2 |
2 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
107 |
122 |
| Minnesota Vikings |
99.3 |
97.1 |
96.2 |
4 |
1 |
– |
4 |
– |
0 |
111 |
106 |
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| NFC South |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| New Orleans Saints |
108.0 |
104.7 |
105.7 |
2 |
4 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
157 |
125 |
| Atlanta Falcons |
101.3 |
99.3 |
100.2 |
3 |
2 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
104 |
130 |
| Tampa Bay Bucaneers |
97.1 |
97.6 |
97.8 |
4.5 |
3 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
87 |
125 |
| Carolina Panthers |
94.6 |
95.6 |
96.0 |
3 |
1 |
– |
4 |
– |
0 |
116 |
132 |
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| NFC West |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| San Francisco 49ers |
102.3 |
104.1 |
103.0 |
2.5 |
4 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
142 |
78 |
| Seattle Seahawks |
94.5 |
96.8 |
95.5 |
3.5 |
2 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
94 |
122 |
| Arizona Cardinals |
92.0 |
94.7 |
94.8 |
3 |
1 |
– |
4 |
– |
0 |
96 |
121 |
| St. Louis Rams |
91.5 |
91.0 |
89.5 |
3 |
0 |
– |
4 |
– |
0 |
46 |
113 |
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| AFC East |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| New England Patriots |
108.3 |
107.6 |
106.3 |
3.5 |
4 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
165 |
119 |
| New York Jets |
102.3 |
102.4 |
99.8 |
4 |
2 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
121 |
125 |
| Buffalo Bills |
100.1 |
103.3 |
106.4 |
3 |
4 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
164 |
120 |
| Miami Dolphins |
97.5 |
95.0 |
93.7 |
1.5 |
0 |
– |
4 |
– |
0 |
69 |
104 |
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| AFC North |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| Baltimore Ravens |
109.3 |
108.0 |
108.2 |
3 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
119 |
57 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
107.8 |
104.3 |
102.2 |
4.5 |
3 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
102 |
89 |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
97.1 |
100.9 |
102.0 |
2 |
3 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
110 |
94 |
| Cleveland Browns |
93.5 |
95.8 |
96.1 |
1 |
2 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
74 |
93 |
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| AFC South |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| Houston Texans |
104.8 |
102.2 |
104.0 |
2.5 |
3 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
127 |
95 |
| Tennessee Titans |
100.1 |
101.1 |
102.3 |
3.5 |
3 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
105 |
94 |
| Indianapolis Colts |
96.0 |
93.5 |
92.7 |
2.5 |
0 |
– |
5 |
– |
0 |
87 |
136 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
92.3 |
93.9 |
92.1 |
2 |
1 |
– |
4 |
– |
0 |
59 |
115 |
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| AFC West |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| San Diego Chargers |
103.6 |
101.3 |
102.0 |
2 |
4 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
120 |
109 |
| Oakland Raiders |
100.5 |
102.5 |
102.0 |
2 |
3 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
136 |
133 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
96.6 |
94.8 |
95.2 |
1 |
2 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
77 |
150 |
| Denver Broncos |
92.6 |
95.8 |
96.2 |
1 |
1 |
– |
4 |
– |
0 |
105 |
140 |
| This Week’s Games |
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| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site |
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| Week 6: October 16-17, 2011 |
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| Vegas Line as of Tuesday, October 11 |
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| Favorite | Underdog |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Vegas |
Totals |
| GREEN BAY | St. Louis |
22.4 |
21.1 |
23.8 |
15 |
48 |
| PITTSBURGH | Jacksonville |
20.0 |
14.9 |
14.6 |
12 |
40 |
| WASHINGTON | Philadelphia |
0.2 |
4.1 |
7.7 |
-1 |
47 1/2 |
| DETROIT | San Francisco |
6.8 |
6.2 |
8.3 |
5 |
46 1/2 |
| ATLANTA | Carolina |
9.7 |
6.7 |
7.2 |
4 |
51 |
| CINCINNATI | Indianapolis |
3.1 |
9.4 |
11.3 |
7 |
40 1/2 |
| NEW YORK GIANTS | Buffalo |
3.4 |
-3.1 |
-3.9 |
3 1/2 |
50 |
| BALTIMORE | Houston |
7.5 |
8.8 |
7.2 |
7 1/2 |
45 |
| OAKLAND | Cleveland |
9.0 |
8.7 |
7.9 |
6 |
44 1/2 |
| NEW ENGLAND | Dallas |
10.6 |
8.3 |
10.6 |
7 |
55 |
| New Orleans | TAMPA BAY |
6.4 |
2.6 |
3.4 |
4 1/2 |
49 1/2 |
| CHICAGO | Minnesota |
3.1 |
5.8 |
7.5 |
3 |
42 |
| NEW YORK JETS | Miami |
8.8 |
11.4 |
10.1 |
7 |
43 |
The Pi-Rate Ratings 