The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 4, 2011

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 5–October 9-10, 2011

Faux Pas Logies To Our Readers

We here at the PiRate Ratings have to apologize to our readers for two mistakes.  The first one occurred last week, while the second one has been global.

 

Mistake #1: Three of you caught this and sent it to our attention.  We goofed on the Arizona and New York Giants Game.  If you saw our ratings, you probably noticed that the Giants should have been favored by 7.5, 3.2, and 4.4 points and not the Cardinals.  We hope that did not cause anybody any ruin.

 

Mistake #2: Our PiRate Passer Rating that we talked about had to be refigured.  One very astute reader—Robert in Boulder, Colorado, noticed from a past entry on our rating that we were using the AYPA stat found at Advanced NFL Stats and believing the acronym stood for “Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.”  We made this mistake due to reading one of their great blog entries about Air Yards.  Their AYPA is not Air Yards.  So, we had to actually create this stat from multiple data, and it wasn’t easy.  

 

Because of this oversight, we have had to tweak the formula a little to adjust the ratings so that the top passers will exceed 100.  The new formula is now:

 

[ ( Air Yards Per Attempt * 8 ) – ( Interception % *11 ) + 105 ] * 0.8,

Air Yards Per Attempt is (Total Passing yards – Receiver Yards After Catch) / Pass Attempts

 

Interception % is (100 * Interceptions / Pass Attempts). 

 

Here are the PiRate Passer Ratings After 4 weeks of the 2011 NFL season:

 

Player

Team

AYPA

Int %

PiRate #

Curtis Painter

IND

3.8

0.00

108.3

Aaron Rodgers

G B

4.9

1.42

102.7

Kerry Collins

IND

4.2

1.02

102.1

Sam Bradford

STL

3.6

0.66

101.3

Alex Smith

S F

3.8

0.93

100.0

Eli Manning

NYG

4.7

1.61

99.8

Michael Vick

PHI

4.5

2.33

92.2

Tom Brady

N E

5.3

3.07

90.9

Matt Hasselbeck

TEN

4.2

2.27

90.8

Donovan McNabb

MIN

3.4

1.80

90.1

Drew Brees

N O

4.1

2.30

90.1

Ryan Fitzpatrick

BUF

3.8

2.07

90.0

Matt Stafford

DET

3.5

1.86

89.8

Matt Schaub

HOU

4.5

2.65

89.1

Cam Newton

CAR

5.0

3.07

88.9

Jason Campbell

OAK

4.1

2.48

88.3

Josh Freeman

T B

4.4

2.76

87.6

Matt Ryan

ATL

3.9

2.44

87.2

Colt McCoy

CLE

2.9

1.74

87.0

Joe Flacco

BAL

3.2

2.14

85.4

Kevin Kolb

ARI

4.2

3.08

83.6

Ben Roethlisberger

PIT

4.8

3.62

83.0

Andy Dalton

CIN

4.1

3.23

82.0

Tarvaris Jackson

SEA

3.7

2.96

81.5

Tony Romo

DAL

3.9

3.29

80.2

Chad Henne

MIA

4.2

3.57

79.5

Rex Grossman

WAS

3.8

3.50

77.5

Jay Cutler

CHI

3.1

3.05

77.0

Mark Sanchez

NYJ

3.6

3.42

77.0

Blaine Gabbert

JAX

2.3

2.90

73.0

Kyle Orton

DEN

3.9

4.23

71.5

Phillip Rivers

S D

3.2

3.82

71.0

Matt Cassel

K C

3.4

4.50

66.4

Luke McCown

JAX

2.5

9.30

18.4

 

As you will note, Curtis Painter is currently in the lead, but that will change as soon as he throws an interception.  Had he thrown just one interception in his limited time, his rating would have dropped to 21st place on this list.  That is why we like to wait until most QBs have thrown 100 passes before releasing this rating.

 

Here are this week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings by Division:

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New York Giants

105.3

101.8

102.8

3

3

1

0

102

87

Philadelphia Eagles

101.7

100.4

100.6

2

1

3

0

101

101

Dallas Cowboys

101.3

102.3

101.2

2.5

2

2

0

99

101

Washington Redskins

97.1

99.2

100.9

2.5

3

1

0

83

63

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Green Bay Packers

109.9

109.1

109.2

3.5

4

0

0

148

97

Detroit Lions

104.8

105.5

106.8

4

4

0

0

135

76

Chicago Bears

100.7

100.4

102.8

2

3

2

0

94

98

Minnesota Vikings

96.7

96.4

92.8

2.5

0

4

0

77

96

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New Orleans Saints

109.1

106.0

106.0

3

3

1

0

127

98

Atlanta Falcons

102.9

100.2

102.6

2

2

2

0

90

105

Tampa Bay Bucaneers

99.4

98.7

100.4

2.5

3

1

0

84

77

Carolina Panthers

93.5

95.0

97.6

2

1

3

0

89

102

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Francisco 49ers

98.8

100.0

100.9

3.5

3

1

0

94

75

Arizona Cardinals

94.9

96.6

95.9

3

1

3

0

86

87

Seattle Seahawks

91.7

93.3

92.1

3

1

3

0

58

97

St. Louis Rams

91.6

91.2

88.9

1

0

4

0

46

113

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New England Patriots

108.3

107.1

105.9

4

3

1

0

135

98

New York Jets

102.3

103.6

101.5

3.5

2

2

0

100

95

Buffalo Bills

98.8

102.6

104.7

3.5

3

1

0

133

96

Miami Dolphins

97.7

95.8

94.1

0.5

0

4

0

69

104

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Baltimore Ravens

109.3

108.7

107.4

4

3

1

0

119

57

Pittsburgh Steelers

106.1

103.2

100.1

4

2

2

0

64

72

Cincinnati Bengals

96.0

99.6

100.1

2

2

2

0

80

74

Cleveland Browns

93.6

95.3

96.3

2

2

2

0

74

93

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Houston Texans

106.5

104.2

107.1

3.5

3

1

0

107

70

Tennessee Titans

101.8

102.2

104.9

3.5

3

1

0

88

56

Indianapolis Colts

96.5

95.5

92.3

2

0

4

0

63

108

Jacksonville Jaguars

93.7

95.0

94.0

2.5

1

3

0

39

85

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Diego Chargers

103.6

100.8

100.2

3.5

3

1

0

91

85

Oakland Raiders

98.8

100.8

100.1

2.5

2

2

0

111

113

Kansas City Chiefs

96.1

93.5

92.4

2

1

3

0

49

126

Denver Broncos

92.1

96.2

97.1

1.5

1

3

0

81

111

 

Here are the PiRate, Mean, and Bias spreads for this week’s games.

This Week’s Games

Home Team in CAPS

(N) Denotes Neutral Site

       
   

 

 

 

 

 

Week 5: October 9-10, 2011

 

 

 

 

 

Vegas Line as of Tuesday, October 4 @ 8:30 AM EDT

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

INDIANAPOLIS Kansas City

2.4

4.0

1.9

2   

38   

MINNESOTA Arizona

4.3

2.3

-0.6

2 1/2

44 1/2

BUFFALO Philadelphia

0.6

5.7

7.6

-3   

49 1/2

HOUSTON Oakland

11.2

6.9

10.5

6   

49   

New Orleans CAROLINA

13.6

9.0

6.4

6   

52 1/2

JACKSONVILLE Cincinnati

0.2

-2.1

-3.6

-2 1/2

37   

PITTSBURGH Tennessee

8.3

5.0

-0.8

8   

NL

NEW YORK GIANTS Seattle

16.6

11.5

13.7

10   

41 1/2

SAN FRANCISCO Tampa Bay

2.9

4.8

4.0

1   

41   

NEW ENGLAND New York Jets

10.0

7.5

8.4

9 1/2

49   

San Diego DENVER

10.0

3.1

1.6

4   

47 1/2

Green Bay ATLANTA

5.0

6.9

4.6

5 1/2

54   

DETROIT Chicago

8.1

9.1

8.0

6   

47 1/2

 Baltimore, Cleveland, Dallas, Miami, St. Louis, and Washington have byes this week.

Advertisements

Blog at WordPress.com.

%d bloggers like this: