Faux Pas Logies To Our Readers
We here at the PiRate Ratings have to apologize to our readers for two mistakes. The first one occurred last week, while the second one has been global.
Mistake #1: Three of you caught this and sent it to our attention. We goofed on the Arizona and New York Giants Game. If you saw our ratings, you probably noticed that the Giants should have been favored by 7.5, 3.2, and 4.4 points and not the Cardinals. We hope that did not cause anybody any ruin.
Mistake #2: Our PiRate Passer Rating that we talked about had to be refigured. One very astute reader—Robert in Boulder, Colorado, noticed from a past entry on our rating that we were using the AYPA stat found at Advanced NFL Stats and believing the acronym stood for “Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.” We made this mistake due to reading one of their great blog entries about Air Yards. Their AYPA is not Air Yards. So, we had to actually create this stat from multiple data, and it wasn’t easy.
Because of this oversight, we have had to tweak the formula a little to adjust the ratings so that the top passers will exceed 100. The new formula is now:
[ ( Air Yards Per Attempt * 8 ) – ( Interception % *11 ) + 105 ] * 0.8,
Air Yards Per Attempt is (Total Passing yards – Receiver Yards After Catch) / Pass Attempts
Interception % is (100 * Interceptions / Pass Attempts).
Here are the PiRate Passer Ratings After 4 weeks of the 2011 NFL season:
| Player |
Team |
AYPA |
Int % |
PiRate # |
| Curtis Painter |
IND |
3.8 |
0.00 |
108.3 |
| Aaron Rodgers |
G B |
4.9 |
1.42 |
102.7 |
| Kerry Collins |
IND |
4.2 |
1.02 |
102.1 |
| Sam Bradford |
STL |
3.6 |
0.66 |
101.3 |
| Alex Smith |
S F |
3.8 |
0.93 |
100.0 |
| Eli Manning |
NYG |
4.7 |
1.61 |
99.8 |
| Michael Vick |
PHI |
4.5 |
2.33 |
92.2 |
| Tom Brady |
N E |
5.3 |
3.07 |
90.9 |
| Matt Hasselbeck |
TEN |
4.2 |
2.27 |
90.8 |
| Donovan McNabb |
MIN |
3.4 |
1.80 |
90.1 |
| Drew Brees |
N O |
4.1 |
2.30 |
90.1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick |
BUF |
3.8 |
2.07 |
90.0 |
| Matt Stafford |
DET |
3.5 |
1.86 |
89.8 |
| Matt Schaub |
HOU |
4.5 |
2.65 |
89.1 |
| Cam Newton |
CAR |
5.0 |
3.07 |
88.9 |
| Jason Campbell |
OAK |
4.1 |
2.48 |
88.3 |
| Josh Freeman |
T B |
4.4 |
2.76 |
87.6 |
| Matt Ryan |
ATL |
3.9 |
2.44 |
87.2 |
| Colt McCoy |
CLE |
2.9 |
1.74 |
87.0 |
| Joe Flacco |
BAL |
3.2 |
2.14 |
85.4 |
| Kevin Kolb |
ARI |
4.2 |
3.08 |
83.6 |
| Ben Roethlisberger |
PIT |
4.8 |
3.62 |
83.0 |
| Andy Dalton |
CIN |
4.1 |
3.23 |
82.0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson |
SEA |
3.7 |
2.96 |
81.5 |
| Tony Romo |
DAL |
3.9 |
3.29 |
80.2 |
| Chad Henne |
MIA |
4.2 |
3.57 |
79.5 |
| Rex Grossman |
WAS |
3.8 |
3.50 |
77.5 |
| Jay Cutler |
CHI |
3.1 |
3.05 |
77.0 |
| Mark Sanchez |
NYJ |
3.6 |
3.42 |
77.0 |
| Blaine Gabbert |
JAX |
2.3 |
2.90 |
73.0 |
| Kyle Orton |
DEN |
3.9 |
4.23 |
71.5 |
| Phillip Rivers |
S D |
3.2 |
3.82 |
71.0 |
| Matt Cassel |
K C |
3.4 |
4.50 |
66.4 |
| Luke McCown |
JAX |
2.5 |
9.30 |
18.4 |
As you will note, Curtis Painter is currently in the lead, but that will change as soon as he throws an interception. Had he thrown just one interception in his limited time, his rating would have dropped to 21st place on this list. That is why we like to wait until most QBs have thrown 100 passes before releasing this rating.
Here are this week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings by Division:
| NFC East |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| New York Giants |
105.3 |
101.8 |
102.8 |
3 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
102 |
87 |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
101.7 |
100.4 |
100.6 |
2 |
1 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
101 |
101 |
| Dallas Cowboys |
101.3 |
102.3 |
101.2 |
2.5 |
2 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
99 |
101 |
| Washington Redskins |
97.1 |
99.2 |
100.9 |
2.5 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
83 |
63 |
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| NFC North |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| Green Bay Packers |
109.9 |
109.1 |
109.2 |
3.5 |
4 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
148 |
97 |
| Detroit Lions |
104.8 |
105.5 |
106.8 |
4 |
4 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
135 |
76 |
| Chicago Bears |
100.7 |
100.4 |
102.8 |
2 |
3 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
94 |
98 |
| Minnesota Vikings |
96.7 |
96.4 |
92.8 |
2.5 |
0 |
– |
4 |
– |
0 |
77 |
96 |
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| NFC South |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| New Orleans Saints |
109.1 |
106.0 |
106.0 |
3 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
127 |
98 |
| Atlanta Falcons |
102.9 |
100.2 |
102.6 |
2 |
2 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
90 |
105 |
| Tampa Bay Bucaneers |
99.4 |
98.7 |
100.4 |
2.5 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
84 |
77 |
| Carolina Panthers |
93.5 |
95.0 |
97.6 |
2 |
1 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
89 |
102 |
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| NFC West |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| San Francisco 49ers |
98.8 |
100.0 |
100.9 |
3.5 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
94 |
75 |
| Arizona Cardinals |
94.9 |
96.6 |
95.9 |
3 |
1 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
86 |
87 |
| Seattle Seahawks |
91.7 |
93.3 |
92.1 |
3 |
1 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
58 |
97 |
| St. Louis Rams |
91.6 |
91.2 |
88.9 |
1 |
0 |
– |
4 |
– |
0 |
46 |
113 |
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| AFC East |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| New England Patriots |
108.3 |
107.1 |
105.9 |
4 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
135 |
98 |
| New York Jets |
102.3 |
103.6 |
101.5 |
3.5 |
2 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
100 |
95 |
| Buffalo Bills |
98.8 |
102.6 |
104.7 |
3.5 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
133 |
96 |
| Miami Dolphins |
97.7 |
95.8 |
94.1 |
0.5 |
0 |
– |
4 |
– |
0 |
69 |
104 |
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| AFC North |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| Baltimore Ravens |
109.3 |
108.7 |
107.4 |
4 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
119 |
57 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
106.1 |
103.2 |
100.1 |
4 |
2 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
64 |
72 |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
96.0 |
99.6 |
100.1 |
2 |
2 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
80 |
74 |
| Cleveland Browns |
93.6 |
95.3 |
96.3 |
2 |
2 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
74 |
93 |
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| AFC South |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| Houston Texans |
106.5 |
104.2 |
107.1 |
3.5 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
107 |
70 |
| Tennessee Titans |
101.8 |
102.2 |
104.9 |
3.5 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
88 |
56 |
| Indianapolis Colts |
96.5 |
95.5 |
92.3 |
2 |
0 |
– |
4 |
– |
0 |
63 |
108 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
93.7 |
95.0 |
94.0 |
2.5 |
1 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
39 |
85 |
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| AFC West |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
| San Diego Chargers |
103.6 |
100.8 |
100.2 |
3.5 |
3 |
– |
1 |
– |
0 |
91 |
85 |
| Oakland Raiders |
98.8 |
100.8 |
100.1 |
2.5 |
2 |
– |
2 |
– |
0 |
111 |
113 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
96.1 |
93.5 |
92.4 |
2 |
1 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
49 |
126 |
| Denver Broncos |
92.1 |
96.2 |
97.1 |
1.5 |
1 |
– |
3 |
– |
0 |
81 |
111 |
Here are the PiRate, Mean, and Bias spreads for this week’s games.
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This Week’s Games |
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(N) Denotes Neutral Site |
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Week 5: October 9-10, 2011 |
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| Vegas Line as of Tuesday, October 4 @ 8:30 AM EDT |
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| Favorite | Underdog |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Vegas |
Totals |
| INDIANAPOLIS | Kansas City |
2.4 |
4.0 |
1.9 |
2 |
38 |
| MINNESOTA | Arizona |
4.3 |
2.3 |
-0.6 |
2 1/2 |
44 1/2 |
| BUFFALO | Philadelphia |
0.6 |
5.7 |
7.6 |
-3 |
49 1/2 |
| HOUSTON | Oakland |
11.2 |
6.9 |
10.5 |
6 |
49 |
| New Orleans | CAROLINA |
13.6 |
9.0 |
6.4 |
6 |
52 1/2 |
| JACKSONVILLE | Cincinnati |
0.2 |
-2.1 |
-3.6 |
-2 1/2 |
37 |
| PITTSBURGH | Tennessee |
8.3 |
5.0 |
-0.8 |
8 |
NL |
| NEW YORK GIANTS | Seattle |
16.6 |
11.5 |
13.7 |
10 |
41 1/2 |
| SAN FRANCISCO | Tampa Bay |
2.9 |
4.8 |
4.0 |
1 |
41 |
| NEW ENGLAND | New York Jets |
10.0 |
7.5 |
8.4 |
9 1/2 |
49 |
| San Diego | DENVER |
10.0 |
3.1 |
1.6 |
4 |
47 1/2 |
| Green Bay | ATLANTA |
5.0 |
6.9 |
4.6 |
5 1/2 |
54 |
| DETROIT | Chicago |
8.1 |
9.1 |
8.0 |
6 |
47 1/2 |
Baltimore, Cleveland, Dallas, Miami, St. Louis, and Washington have byes this week.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 