The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 2, 2011

PiRate Ratings: College Football for October 6-8, 2011

Three Conferences Head And Heels Above The Rest

Five weeks into the 2011 season finds that three leagues have pulled away from the pack in PiRate Ratings Average.

 

The Southeastern Conference (112.8), Big 12 (112.4), and Pac-12 (111.6) are basically in a statistical dead-heat at this point.  The Big Ten (105.9) and ACC (105.8) come in at fourth and fifth, while the four Independents (102.6) come in sixth.

 

The Big East (101.0) is at an average that should not be rewarded with an automatic BCS Bowl bid.  The Mountain West (96.8) is eighth.

 

There is another gap back to ninth with the Western Athletic Conference (93.6).  The bottom three leagues have averages under 90.0.  Conference USA (89.3) is 10th; The Mid-American Conference (84.8) is 11th; and The Sunbelt Conference (81.5) is 12th and last.

 

The 15 Unbeatens

There are still 15 teams without a loss five weeks into the season.  Eight are 5-0, while seven are 4-0.  Let’s look at each team and gauge their chances for running the table.

 

ACC: Clemson and Georgia Tech: These two face off in Atlanta on October 29, so one team has to be removed from the list.  Clemson’s next toughest game will be the finale at rival South Carolina, and then whoever they would face in an ACC Championship Game.

 

Georgia Tech’s path to 13-0 is significantly more difficult.  The Yellow Jackets must visit Miami the week before hosting Clemson.  They still must play Virginia Tech on a Thursday night, and they close at home with Georgia.  If they get to 12-0, they would then probably have to defeat Clemson a second time at the ACC Championship Game.  They did just that two seasons ago.

 

Big Ten: Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan: The Badgers have the toughest remaining schedule, as they must face Michigan State, Ohio State, and Illinois on the road.

 

Illinois has virtually no chance of running the table with a team that is not even a full touchdown better than the average FBS team.  The Illini host Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and they play at Penn State.

 

Michigan was 5-0 at this point last year, but the Wolverines are much better than they were a year ago.  Of all the teams in this league, they have the best chance at running the table if Denard Robinson remains healthy.  Their toughest opponents remaining are at Michigan State, at Iowa, at Illinois, home with Nebraska, and home with Ohio State.  At this moment, they would be favored in all these games.  They would probably have to defeat Wisconsin in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game.

 

Big 12: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, and Kansas State: For a league that is on life support, the Big 12 has five undefeated teams.  One of those five will lose this week, as Oklahoma and Texas face off at the Cotton Bowl.

 

Oklahoma would appear to be the overwhelming favorite to run the table in this league, but the Sooners have been in this position before and failed.  They have actually averaged 3.2 losses per year in the last six seasons, so do not count on OU running the table as a matter of fact.  Still, this team has the best chance in this conference.  Their toughest opponents include Texas this week, at Kansas State on October 29, Texas A&M on November 5, at Baylor on November 19, and at Oklahoma State on December 3.

 

If Texas upsets Oklahoma this week, the Longhorns would face a stiff test the following week at home against Oklahoma State.  Road games at Missouri, Texas A&M, and Baylor would probably prove to be too much to conquer.

 

Oklahoma State may be the one team that can prevent Oklahoma from getting to 12-0, but the Cowboys’ defense is not 12-0 caliber.  OSU must still play Texas, Missouri, and Texas Tech on the road and Baylor, Kansas State, and Oklahoma at home.

 

Kansas State has a couple of nice wins over Miami and Baylor, but they Wildcats have yet to play a power.  KSU will be playing after December 3 this year, but it will not be in a BCS Bowl.  The Wildcats host Missouri this week, and then play at Texas Tech the following week.  If they are 6-0, they should be 7-0 when they host Oklahoma on homecoming.  They follow that up with a game at Oklahoma State, a home game with Texas A&M, and at Texas.  They should be no better than 8-3 after that stretch and possibly 7-4.

 

Texas Tech is one of the weakest undefeated teams.  The Red Raiders have not defeated a quality team yet.  They host Texas A&M this week, and this game will tell us if they have a chance at a nine-win season.  They face Kansas State the following week and play at Oklahoma the week after.  In November, they play at Texas, host Oklahoma State, play at Missouri, and head to Cowboy Stadium to play Baylor.  Not only will they not run the table, they could be looking at a 6-6 season.

 

Pac-12: Stanford: The Cardinal may not have the top scoring offense in the nation (Georgia Tech leads them 51.6 to 45.8), but they may have the most unstoppable attack unit in quite some time.  Combine the top passer in the nation with a dominating power running game, and Stanford looks to be stronger than last year’s team that went 12-1.  There are three difficult games left on The Cardinal’s schedule.  They face Southern Cal at the Coliseum on October 29.  They host Oregon on November 12, and they conclude the regular season at home against Notre Dame.

 

SEC: LSU and Alabama: The nation’s top two teams appear to be headed on a collision course for what would be the next incarnation of the “Game of the Century.”

 

Alabama has a breather homecoming game with Vanderbilt this week and another breather at Ole Miss the following week.  The Crimson Tide return home to face Tennessee on October 22, and then they get a week off before hosting LSU on November 5.

 

LSU’s path to November 5 includes a home game against Florida this weekend, a trip to Tennessee the following week, and a home game with Auburn the week after.  The Tigers also get a bye week heading into the big game in Tuscaloosa.

 

Both teams have tough final games, and whichever team wins the big one, they will have to win a tough game on the last weekend in November.  Alabama plays at Auburn, while LSU hosts Arkansas.  Assuming one of these two teams wins the SEC Championship Game, if the other goes 11-1, there is a small chance they could finish one-two in the final BCS poll and face off again in the Superdome on January 9.

 

The Non-AQ Unbeatens: Boise State and Houston: The Broncos have beaten Georgia in Atlanta, won at Toledo, and defeated Tulsa and Nevada at home to open 4-0.  They have home games with Air Force and TCU, and they have a road game against San Diego State.  With TCU down this year, it will take a huge upset for any team to beat them.  Whether a 12-0 record in the MWC will get them into the national title picture, we do not know.

 

Houston’s defense is not going to allow them to run the table.  The Cougars have given up 33.3 to FBS teams, including 42 to UTEP.  Their toughest remaining games are against SMU at home and at Tulsa plus a possible Conference USA Championship Game.  Even if they go 13-0, Houston will not earn a trip to the Superdome on January 9.

 

This Week’s College Rankings

#

Team

PiRate

1

Alabama

136.5

2

Oklahoma

132.2

3

Stanford

129.7

4

L S U

128.9

5

Oregon

127.6

6

Wisconsin

126.3

7

Oklahoma St.

126.2

8

Boise St.

123.9

9

TexasA&M

123.1

10

Notre Dame

122.1

11

Arkansas

120.0

12

Florida 

119.3

13

Florida St.

118.9

14

Clemson

118.6

15

Michigan

118.2

16

Missouri

116.6

17

Texas

115.4

18

Arizona St.

115.3

19

Washington

114.3

20

S. Carolina

113.6

21

Nebraska

113.6

22

Michigan St.

113.3

23

Georgia 

112.3

24

Southern Cal

112.1

25

Mississippi St.

111.7

26

Virginia Tech

111.6

27

Cincinnati

111.4

28

Miami(FL)

111.0

29

Utah

110.6

30

W. Virginia

110.3

31

California

109.7

32

Pittsburgh

109.2

33

Tennessee

109.1

34

Ohio St.

108.7

35

Georgia Tech

108.3

36

Auburn

108.3

37

Iowa

107.8

38

Baylor

107.4

39

Arizona

107.0

40

T C U

106.6

41

Penn St.

106.6

42

TexasTech

106.0

43

N. Carolina

105.6

44

Illinois

105.5

45

U C L A

105.5

46

Kansas St.

105.5

47

Washington St.

105.1

48

Air Force

104.0

49

WakeForest

103.5

50

Vanderbilt

103.4

51

S M U

103.0

52

S. Florida

102.9

53

Oregon St.

102.8

54

Nevada

102.4

55

Navy

102.3

56

San Diego St.

102.0

57

Hawaii

101.7

58

Maryland

101.5

59

N. Carolina St.

101.4

60

B Y U

101.1

61

Northwestern

100.4

62

Tulsa

100.3

63

Iowa St.

99.8

64

Southern Miss.

99.2

65

Colorado

98.9

66

Houston

98.3

67

Duke

98.3

68

Western Michigan

97.9

69

Toledo

97.5

70

Central Florida

97.4

71

Ole Miss

97.3

72

BostonColl.

96.8

73

Utah St.

96.4

74

Connecticut

96.3

75

Rutgers

96.0

76

Temple

95.0

77

Purdue

94.5

78

Virginia

94.3

79

San Jose St.

94.2

80

LouisianaTech

94.0

81

Fresno St.

93.9

82

Minnesota

93.3

83

East Carolina

93.2

84

Syracuse

93.1

85

Kentucky

92.6

86

Kansas

91.7

87

FloridaInt’l

90.5

88

Colorado St.

89.9

89

Arkansas St.

89.5

90

Wyoming

89.5

91

Louisville

88.7

92

OhioU

88.4

93

Northern Illinois

88.2

94

Miami(O)

87.5

95

Rice

87.4

96

Marshall

86.9

97

Bowling Green

86.6

98

UL-Monroe

85.4

99

Army

84.7

100

Idaho

84.5

101

Troy

83.9

102

Ball St.

83.1

103

Indiana

83.1

104

U N L V

82.9

105

U A B

82.4

106

Central Michigan

82.0

107

New Mexico St.

81.8

108

U T E P

80.9

109

UL-Lafayette

79.4

110

Tulane

78.2

111

Buffalo

77.7

112

North Texas

77.4

113

Kent St.

77.1

114

FloridaAtlantic

76.2

115

New Mexico

75.8

116

MiddleTennessee

75.6

117

WesternKy.

75.3

118

Eastern Michigan

74.3

119

Akron

66.9

120

Memphis

64.0

 

 

The Teams By Conference

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaState

0-1

2-2

118.9

Clemson

2-0

5-0

118.6

WakeForest

2-0

3-1

103.5

Maryland

1-0

2-2

101.5

North CarolinaState

0-2

2-3

101.4

BostonCollege

0-2

1-4

96.8

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

0-1

4-1

111.6

Miami-FL

0-1

2-2

111.0

Georgia Tech

2-0

5-0

108.3

North Carolina

1-1

4-1

105.6

Duke

1-0

3-2

98.3

Virginia

0-1

3-2

94.3

 

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Cincinnati

0-0

4-1

111.4

West Virginia

0-0

4-1

110.3

Pittsburgh

1-0

3-2

109.2

South Florida

0-1

4-1

102.9

Connecticut

0-0

2-3

96.3

Rutgers

1-0

3-1

96.0

Syracuse

0-1

3-2

93.1

Louisville

0-0

2-2

88.7

 

 

Big Ten

       
Leaders Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Wisconsin

1-0

5-0

126.3

OhioState

0-1

3-2

108.7

PennState

1-0

4-1

106.6

Illinois

1-0

5-0

105.5

Purdue

0-0

2-2

94.5

Indiana

0-1

1-4

83.1

       
Legends Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Michigan

1-0

5-0

118.2

Nebraska

0-1

4-1

113.6

MichiganState

1-0

4-1

113.3

Iowa

0-0

3-1

107.8

Northwestern

0-1

2-2

100.4

Minnesota

0-1

1-4

93.3

 

 

Big 12

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma

1-0

4-0

132.2

OklahomaState

1-0

4-0

126.2

TexasA&M

0-1

2-2

123.1

Missouri

0-1

2-2

116.6

Texas

1-0

4-0

115.4

Baylor

0-1

3-1

107.4

TexasTech

1-0

4-0

106.0

KansasState

1-0

4-0

105.5

IowaState

0-1

3-1

99.8

Kansas

0-1

2-2

91.7

 

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

1-1

4-1

99.2

Central Florida

0-0

2-2

97.4

East Carolina

1-0

1-3

93.2

Marshall

1-0

2-3

86.9

U A B

0-2

0-4

82.4

Memphis

0-0

1-4

64.0

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

S M U

2-0

4-1

103.0

Tulsa

1-0

2-3

100.3

Houston

1-0

5-0

98.3

Rice

0-1

1-3

87.4

U T E P

0-2

2-3

80.9

Tulane

1-1

2-3

78.2

 

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

3-2

122.1

Navy  

2-2

102.3

B Y U  

3-2

101.1

Army  

2-3

84.7

 

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

1-1

3-2

95.0

OhioU

1-0

4-1

88.4

Miami(O)

0-1

0-4

87.5

Bowling Green

1-0

3-2

86.6

Buffalo

0-1

1-4

77.7

Kent St.

0-1

1-4

77.1

Akron

0-2

1-4

66.9

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Western Michigan

1-0

3-2

97.9

Toledo

1-0

2-3

97.5

Northern Illinois

0-1

2-3

88.2

BallState

1-0

3-2

83.1

Central Michigan

1-1

2-3

82.0

Eastern Michigan

1-0

3-2

74.3

 

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

BoiseState

0-0

4-0

123.9

T C U

1-0

3-2

106.6

Air Force

0-1

3-1

104.0

San DiegoState

0-0

3-1

102.0

ColoradoState

1-0

3-2

89.9

Wyoming

0-0

3-1

89.5

UNLV

0-0

1-3

82.9

New Mexico

0-1

0-5

75.8

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

       
North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Stanford

2-0

4-0

129.7

Oregon

1-0

3-1

127.6

Washington

2-0

4-1

114.3

California

0-1

3-1

109.7

WashingtonState

1-0

3-1

105.1

OregonState

0-2

0-4

102.8

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

ArizonaState

2-0

4-1

115.3

U S C

2-1

4-1

112.1

Utah

0-2

2-2

110.6

Arizona

0-2

1-4

107.0

U C L A

1-1

2-3

105.5

Colorado

0-1

1-4

98.9

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida

2-1

4-1

119.3

South Carolina

2-1

4-1

113.6

Georgia

2-1

3-2

112.3

Tennessee

0-1

3-1

109.1

Vanderbilt

1-1

3-1

103.4

Kentucky

0-2

2-3

92.6

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

2-0

5-0

136.5

L S U

2-0

5-0

128.9

Arkansas

0-1

4-1

120.0

MississippiState

0-3

2-3

111.7

Auburn

2-0

4-1

108.3

Ole Miss

0-2

2-3

97.3

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaInternational

1-1

3-2

90.5

ArkansasState

1-0

3-2

89.5

Louisiana-Monroe

0-0

1-3

85.4

Troy

1-0

2-2

83.9

U.ofLouisiana

2-0

4-1

79.4

North Texas

0-1

1-4

77.4

FloridaAtlantic

0-1

0-4

76.2

MiddleTennessee

0-1

1-3

75.6

Western Kentucky

0-1

0-4

75.3

 

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nevada

1-0

1-3

102.4

Hawaii

1-0

3-2

101.7

UtahState

0-0

1-3

96.4

San JoseState

1-1

2-3

94.2

LouisianaTech

0-1

1-4

94.0

FresnoState

1-0

2-3

93.9

Idaho

0-1

1-4

84.5

New MexicoState

0-1

2-3

81.8

 

 

Here are the PiRate Ratings for this week’s games.

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

Thursday, October 6  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

OREGON California

21.4

42-21

20 1/2

MIDDLETENNESSEE Western Kentucky

2.8

31-28

9   

   

 

 

 

Friday, October 7  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Boise St. FRESNO ST.

26.5

40-13

19 1/2

   

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Saturday, October 8  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Oklahoma  (n) Texas

16.8

34-17

10 1/2

Illinois INDIANA

19.4

31-12

14   

ALABAMA Vanderbilt

36.6

40-3

29   

CLEMSON BostonCollege

25.3

35-10

20   

WEST VIRGINIA Connecticut

17.5

42-24

14 1/2

Mississippi St. U A B

26.8

45-18

17   

PENN ST. Iowa

1.8

16-14

2   

Pittsburgh RUTGERS

10.7

31-20

6   

PURDUE Minnesota

3.7

31-27

NL

NORTH CAROLINA Louisville

19.9

30-10

12   

NORTH CAROLINA ST. Central Michigan

22.9

37-14

13   

RICE Memphis

25.9

38-12

20   

MIAMI(O) Army

5.3

28-23

Pk

WESTERN MICHIGAN Bowling Green

14.3

31-17

10 1/2

Temple BALL ST.

8.9

28-19

9   

Arizona St. UTAH

1.2

31-30

NL

B Y U San Jose St.

10.4

27-17

16   

TOLEDO Eastern Michigan

26.2

40-14

22   

OhioU BUFFALO

8.2

28-20

8   

NORTHERN ILLINOIS Kent St.

14.1

28-14

18 1/2

ARKANSAS Auburn

15.2

42-27

8   

GEORGIATECH Maryland

9.8

41-31

15   

STANFORD Colorado

34.3

48-14

29   

Georgia TENNESSEE

0.2

26-26 to ot

2   

VIRGINIATECH Miami(Fla)

4.1

28-24

6   

NOTRE DAME Air Force

21.6

35-13

11   

NAVY Southern Miss.

6.1

34-28

4 1/2

NEVADA U n l v

22.0

42-20

19   

CENTRAL FLORIDA Marshall

13.5

31-17

16 1/2

LouisianaTech IDAHO

6.0

34-28

5   

Arizona OREGON ST.

0.7

28-27

1 1/2

OKLAHOMA ST. Kansas

38.0

55-17

29   

Michigan NORTHWESTERN

14.8

38-23

6   

HOUSTON East Carolina

8.1

42-34

13 1/2

BAYLOR Iowa St.

11.1

41-30

14   

SOUTH CAROLINA Kentucky

24.5

38-13

20 1/2

Florida St. WAKEFOREST

12.4

28-16

NL

TexasA&M TEXASTECH

14.1

45-31

6 1/2

Missouri KANSAS ST.

7.6

35-27

2 1/2

Syracuse TULANE

12.4

24-12

8   

UTAH ST. Wyoming

9.9

31-21

12   

L S U Florida

13.1

23-10

NL

NEBRASKA Ohio St.

8.4

31-23

10   

U C L A Washington St.

3.4

31-28

5 1/2

T c u SAN DIEGO ST.

1.6

24-22

6   

FloridaInt’l AKRON

21.1

31-10

19   

Troy UL-LAFAYETTE

2.0

27-25

7   

Arkansas St. UL-MONROE

6.6

30-23

2 1/2

NORTH TEXAS FloridaAtlantic

4.2

28-24

3   

 

Advertisements

1 Comment

  1. Hello There. I discovered your weblog the use of msn. That is an extremely well written article. I’ll be sure to bookmark it and return to learn extra of your useful information. Thank you for the post. I will certainly comeback.

    Comment by Sam — December 4, 2011 @ 4:14 pm


RSS feed for comments on this post.

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

%d bloggers like this: