An Interesting Phenomenon
After three games of the 2011 NFL season, in each of the eight divisions, a team that did not make the playoffs last year is either leading or tied for the lead. In the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills own sole possession of first place. The Cleveland Browns are in a tie for first in the AFC North. Tennessee and Houston are tied for the lead in the AFC South, and Oakland and Kansas City are tied for first in the AFC West.
In the NFC East, the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys are in a tie for first. Detroit is tied for first in the NFC North, while Tampa Bay is tied for first in the AFC South. San Francisco leads the NFC West.
The only teams that made the playoffs last year to be tied for the lead in their division are Baltimore, Green Bay, and New Orleans.
PiRate QB Passer Formula Returns Next Week
Beginning next week, we will once again carry the PiRate Passer Ratings for the NFL quarterbacks.
The official NFL Passer Rating is out-dated. There are several different sabermetric methods to judge passer efficiency these days, and most of these new versions put the official version to shame.
Here is the official version the NFL uses:
I. (Completion Percentage-30.0) * 0.05 +
II. (Yards per attempt-3.0) * 0.25 +
III. (20 * touchdowns per pass attempt) +
IV. 2.375 – (25 * interceptions per pass attempt)
If any of these four components are greater than 2.375, then cap the value at 2.375
Add these four stats together and multiple them by 16.667 to get the passer rating. For example, let’s look at Aaron Rodgers to date.
Here are his stats.
Completion Percentage 71.84
Yards Per Attempt 8.9
TDs Per Attempt .078
INTs Per Attempt .01
(71.84-30.0)*.05 = 2.092
(8.9-3.0)*.25 = 1.475
.078*20 = 1.560
(2.375-(25*.01)) = 2.125
(2.092+1.475+1.560+2.125)*16.667=120.9
Once you know this formula, you can easily plug it into a spreadsheet and figure the ratings. However, these ratings are a poor way to select the most efficient passer.
Let’s take a look at two opposing passers, Smith and Jones.
Smith completes 15 of 24 passes for 3 touchdowns with no interceptions.
Jones completes 10 of 24 passes for 0 touchdowns and 1 interception.
Smith is obviously much better, correct? No, not correct. It depends on several other things. What if Jones has a lousy offensive line or receivers that drop every other pass thrown to them? What if Smith has all day to pass with Jerry Rice-type receivers? All these stats show us are just that—their stats.
Smith could have completed six passes to backs behind the line of scrimmage with the backs following blocking for long gains. Jones could have threaded the needle with 30 yard passes to the deep sidelines only to have had them dropped by inept receivers.
In essence no pass-rating formula is worth a grain of salt. Let’s look at two separate plays. Passer A completes a 13-yard pass for a touchdown. It is a dump pass into the flat to the tailback with the tailback avoiding three defenders as he streaks into the end zone. This one pass gets the NFL Maximum rating of 158.3.
Now, let’s look at Passer B. His team is backed up at their own 1 inch line. He drops back and fires a bomb 55 yards through the air that comes down perfectly in the hands of his flanker. The flanker takes off down the sideline and is knocked out just one inch away from scoring. This 98-yard pass gives Passer B a rating of 118.8, which is 2.1 points less than Aaron Rodgers’ current rating! Rodgers is not worth more than a 98-yard completion every time he throws a pass.
Can this be? You betcha! The rating is flawed. Obviously the brilliantly thrown pass that travelled 55 yards past the line of scrimmage that comes down perfectly in the hands of the intended receiver should be worth a lot more than the dump pass that I could complete given two seconds of protection.
Here is where the PiRate Pass Rating Formula tries to correct the incorrect values of the NFL Pass Rating Formula.
Our formula looks at just two statistics. The first is interception percentage. An intercepted pass is worth anywhere from 3 to 7 points for the other team on average. We realize that all interceptions are not the same. A poorly thrown pass into the flat at the offense’s 20-yard line hurts much more than a 3rd and 25 pass thrown 40 yards downfield and intercepted by the defense.
The second stat is called “Air Yards Per Attempt,” or AYPA. It is simply the passing yardage minus the yards after catch. If Passer A completes a 51-yard pass for a touchdown, but the play consists of a pass completed to a tailback one yard past the line of scrimmage with that back running for 50 yards, the passer gets credit for an AYPA of 1 yard (51 yard pass – 50 yards after the catch).
Here is the PiRate Pass Rating Formula:
[AYPA * 7 – (11 * Interception %) + 105] * 0.8
Interception percentage is figured as: (Interceptions/Attempts) *100
Anything over 100 is an excellent rating. Over 90 means the QB is above average. 80 would be considered average; below 80 means this QB should be looking over his shoulder for a replacement to take his job.
In our passer rating, we don’t include passing percentage or touchdown passes. Yards gained are what matters. Three consecutive completed passes that gain a total of nine yards means 4th & 1. Two incomplete passes followed by an 11 yard completion means 1st & 10. Which outcome is better?
Touchdowns skew the ratings. If one coach sends in passing plays at the opponents’ one yard line, while another sends his 240-pound power back to plunge over the goal, the quarterbacks will get too much credit in once instance and no credit in the other.
Let’s take a look at the PiRate Rating in action. First, you must be wondering where can you find AYPA? There is an excellent website that carries this stat, so you don’t have to try to figure out the YAC for each QB. Go to: www.advancednflstats.com.
For this example, we will compare two quarterbacks, Eli Manning and Tony Romo. Manning has the better official NFL passer rating, leading Romo 104.3 to 95.8.
Here are the components for the PiRate Passer Ratings.
Manning: AYPA = 6.0 Int% = 2.35
Romo: AYPA = 7.4 Int% = 1.90
Manning = [6.0 * 7 – (11 * 2.35) + 105] * .8 =96.9
Romo = [7.4 * 7 – (11*1.90) + 105] * .8 = 108.7
According to our formula, Romo has been the better passer after three weeks of the 2011 season.
This Week’s NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings
| NFC East |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
| New York Giants |
105.6 |
102.3 |
103.2 |
3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
104.0 |
101.0 |
101.4 |
2 |
| Dallas Cowboys |
101.7 |
102.1 |
102.4 |
3 |
| Washington Redskins |
96.7 |
99.5 |
100.9 |
2.5 |
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| NFC North |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
| Green Bay Packers |
107.9 |
108.2 |
109.0 |
3 |
| Detroit Lions |
104.4 |
103.6 |
103.8 |
4 |
| Chicago Bears |
101.3 |
101.0 |
102.2 |
2.5 |
| Minnesota Vikings |
98.0 |
98.5 |
96.2 |
2.5 |
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| NFC South |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
| New Orleans Saints |
108.9 |
105.6 |
105.5 |
3 |
| Atlanta Falcons |
103.6 |
100.7 |
102.4 |
2 |
| Tampa Bay Bucaneers |
98.9 |
100.3 |
99.7 |
2.5 |
| Carolina Panthers |
92.9 |
95.3 |
97.2 |
2 |
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| NFC West |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
| San Francisco 49ers |
96.5 |
100.1 |
100.0 |
3.5 |
| Arizona Cardinals |
94.6 |
95.6 |
95.3 |
3.5 |
| St. Louis Rams |
92.0 |
90.9 |
89.2 |
1.5 |
| Seattle Seahawks |
91.0 |
92.7 |
91.8 |
3.5 |
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| AFC East |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
| New England Patriots |
107.7 |
108.1 |
106.4 |
4 |
| New York Jets |
104.6 |
105.0 |
103.9 |
3.5 |
| Buffalo Bills |
100.0 |
101.9 |
105.4 |
3.5 |
| Miami Dolphins |
97.8 |
97.1 |
97.2 |
0.5 |
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| AFC North |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
| Baltimore Ravens |
107.0 |
107.3 |
105.7 |
4 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
106.9 |
103.8 |
102.3 |
4 |
| Cleveland Browns |
96.3 |
96.3 |
97.5 |
2.5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
94.8 |
97.1 |
99.4 |
2 |
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| AFC South |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
| Houston Texans |
105.7 |
104.1 |
104.2 |
3 |
| Tennessee Titans |
99.1 |
100.6 |
100.4 |
3.5 |
| Indianapolis Colts |
97.0 |
95.4 |
92.9 |
2 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
93.9 |
94.6 |
93.4 |
2.5 |
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| AFC West |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
HFA |
| San Diego Chargers |
103.5 |
100.3 |
99.9 |
3.5 |
| Oakland Raiders |
99.4 |
101.6 |
102.5 |
3 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
94.8 |
92.7 |
92.0 |
1.5 |
| Denver Broncos |
94.1 |
96.3 |
96.8 |
1.5 |
Here are this week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads.
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This Week’s Games |
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| Home Team in CAPS |
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| Week 4: October 2-3, 2011 |
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| Vegas Line as of: Tuesday, September 27, 2011 8:30 AM EDT |
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| Favorite | Underdog |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Vegas |
Totals |
| DALLAS | Detroit |
0.3 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
3 |
47 1/2 |
| New Orleans | JACKSONVILLE |
12.5 |
8.5 |
9.6 |
7 |
46 1/2 |
| PHILADELPHIA | San Francisco |
9.5 |
2.9 |
3.4 |
6 |
41 1/2 |
| Washington | ST. LOUIS |
3.2 |
7.1 |
10.2 |
Pk |
44 1/2 |
| Tennessee | CLEVELAND |
0.3 |
1.8 |
0.4 |
-1 1/2 |
38 |
| Buffalo | CINCINNATI |
3.2 |
2.8 |
4.0 |
3 |
44 |
| Minnesota | KANSAS CITY |
1.7 |
4.3 |
2.7 |
1 |
40 |
| CHICAGO | Carolina |
10.9 |
8.2 |
7.5 |
6 1/2 |
44 |
| HOUSTON | Pittsburgh |
1.8 |
3.3 |
4.9 |
4 |
45 |
| Atlanta | SEATTLE |
9.1 |
4.5 |
7.1 |
4 1/2 |
41 1/2 |
| ARIZONA | New York Giants |
7.5 |
3.2 |
4.4 |
-1 |
45 |
| SAN DIEGO | Miami |
9.2 |
6.7 |
6.2 |
7 1/2 |
45 1/2 |
| GREEN BAY | Denver |
16.8 |
14.9 |
15.2 |
13 |
47 1/2 |
| New England | OAKLAND |
5.3 |
3.5 |
0.9 |
4 1/2 |
53 1/2 |
| BALTIMORE | New York Jets |
3.3 |
6.3 |
5.8 |
3 1/2 |
40 1/2 |
| TAMPA BAY | Indianapolis |
4.4 |
7.4 |
9.3 |
10 |
41 1/2 |
The Pi-Rate Ratings 