The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 20, 2011

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 3–September 25-26, 2011

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:43 am

Rookie Quarterbacks Need Time To Get Used To The Speed Of The Game

 

We wonder just how good Cam Newton is going to be when he becomes a seasoned veteran.  If while he is breaking in to the speed of the league, he averages more than 400 passing yards per game, will he soon be threatening the 6,000 passing yard mark?

 

The way he has played in his first two games, he sure looks like he could become the first Heisman Trophy winner to earn the Rookie of the Year award in the NFL since Sam Bradford way back in 2010.

 

It’s time to put this myth to rest.  Today’s college quarterbacks are as ready to step in and become stars in their first year in the NFL just as frequently as today’s running backs are ready.  Andy Dalton looks like a veteran, and Blaine Gabbert should become the starter at Jacksonville very soon.

 

He’s Being Paid How Much Per Yard?

 

Titans’ running back Chris Johnson’s new contract averages out to $837,500 per game.  Through two weeks of the 2011 season, he is averaging a grand total of 38.5 rushing yards per game, or a little more than $21,750 per yard.  A simple five yard gain could buy a nice house.  A one yard gain is worth about the same as a Ford Fusion.

 

All kidding aside, the Titans should consider trying him as a wideout.  Johnson has good hands, and lining up opposite Kenny Britt could give the Titans the next version of Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Bolden, or Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne.  Add Nate Washington to the mix, and the Titans might have the top receiving trio outside of Foxboro, Massachusetts.

 

The AFC East

 

Could the AFC East provide three playoff teams in 2011-12?  New England and the New York Jets appear to be lead pipe cinches to make the playoffs, but what about the Buffalo Bills?  The Bills are off to a 2-0 start and a fourth place schedule to their advantage.  We tend to believe that the runner-up in the AFC North will probably finish no worse than 10-6, so it is still a long shot.  As of today, we cannot see any AFC South or West runner-up winning more than nine games.

 

The NFC West

 

Last year, Seattle won the NFC West with a 7-9 record.  The Seahawks will be lucky to win four games this year, but they could still be in the race with four games to go.  This division may provide another losing team to the playoffs this season.  Arizona and San Francisco have played mediocre ball so far to open at 1-1, but neither team is a world-beater.  This division plays the NFC East and AFC North, and the outlook is grim for the Cardinals, Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks.  Could 6-10 actually earn a team a share of this division title?  Ugh!

 

Offense Continues To Dominate

 

Through two weeks of the NFL schedule, the average offensive score for the 32 teams is 23.5.  That is a field goal above the norm.

 

The average margin of victory is a gaudy 12.9 points per game, which is well above the average.  This could be due to a small statistical sample, but it could also be an effect of the NFL Lockout.  The teams with better talent and exceptional organizational skills are taking advantage of the lack of preseason preparation.

 

NFL PiRate Ratings For Week 3: September 25-26, 2011

 

NFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Philadelphia Eagles

1

1

0

62

48

106.2

104.8

106.5

New York Giants

1

1

0

42

44

103.4

100.8

102.5

Dallas Cowboys

1

1

0

51

51

101.9

102.4

102.0

Washington Redskins

2

0

0

50

35

96.5

98.5

101.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Green Bay Packers

2

0

0

72

57

107.2

107.2

108.3

Detroit Lions

2

0

0

75

23

105.2

102.7

104.3

Chicago Bears

1

1

0

43

42

102.0

101.9

102.5

Minnesota Vikings

0

2

0

37

48

97.2

99.2

96.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New Orleans Saints

1

1

0

64

55

108.8

105.0

105.8

Atlanta Falcons

1

1

0

47

61

104.1

101.4

103.9

Tampa Bay Bucaneers

1

1

0

44

47

98.4

99.7

99.6

Carolina Panthers

0

2

0

44

58

91.6

94.4

94.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

San Francisco 49ers

1

1

0

57

44

96.2

97.6

97.6

St. Louis Rams

0

2

0

29

59

95.2

93.2

93.5

Arizona Cardinals

1

1

0

49

43

94.9

95.2

96.2

Seattle Seahawks

0

2

0

17

57

90.7

92.2

88.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New England Patriots

2

0

0

73

45

111.5

109.9

110.1

New York Jets

2

0

0

59

27

107.7

106.9

107.4

Miami Dolphins

0

2

0

37

61

98.2

97.9

95.8

Buffalo Bills

2

0

0

79

42

96.2

98.6

101.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Pittsburgh Steelers

1

1

0

31

35

107.4

104.7

104.6

Baltimore Ravens

1

1

0

48

33

103.8

105.9

105.7

Cleveland Browns

1

1

0

44

46

95.9

96.3

95.5

Cincinnati Bengals

1

1

0

49

41

95.1

97.6

96.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Houston Texans

2

0

0

57

20

105.8

103.7

105.9

Tennessee Titans

1

1

0

40

29

99.8

101.2

98.8

Indianapolis Colts

0

2

0

26

61

96.5

97.2

93.3

Jacksonville Jaguars

1

1

0

19

46

95.2

95.7

96.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

PiRate

Mean

Biased

San Diego Chargers

1

1

0

45

52

105.3

103.7

103.1

Oakland Raiders

1

1

0

58

58

96.3

98.4

99.6

Denver Broncos

1

1

0

44

45

93.4

94.9

95.1

Kansas City Chiefs

0

2

0

10

89

93.0

91.4

87.5

 

This Week’s Games

Home Team in CAPS

(N) Denotes Neutral Site

       
             

Week 3: September 25-26, 2011

Vegas Line as of: Tuesday, September 20, 2011  9:30 AM EDT

             
Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

CINCINNATI San Francisco

0.9

2.0

1.2

2 1/2

41   

New England BUFFALO

14.3

10.3

7.9

8 1/2

52   

NEW ORLEANS Houston

4.5

2.8

1.4

4   

53   

PHILADELPHIA New York Giants

3.8

5.0

5.0

7 1/2

41 1/2

Miami CLEVELAND

1.3

0.6

-0.7

-3   

41   

TENNESSEE Denver

9.9

9.8

7.2

7   

42   

Detroit MINNESOTA

8.0

3.5

8.0

3 1/2

44 1/2

Jacksonville CAROLINA

2.1

-0.2

-0.4

-3    

42 1/2

SAN DIEGO Kansas City

15.8

15.8

19.1

14 1/2

45   

New York Jets OAKLAND

10.4

7.5

6.8

3   

41   

Baltimore ST. LOUIS

7.1

11.2

10.7

4 1/2

42   

Atlanta TAMPA BAY

4.7

0.7

3.3

-1 1/2

45 1/2

Arizona SEATTLE

0.7

-0.5

3.8

-3   

42   

Green Bay CHICAGO

3.2

3.3

3.8

3 1/2

45 1/2

Pittsburgh INDIANAPOLIS

9.4

6.0

9.8

10 1/2

39 1/2

DALLAS Washington

5.9

4.4

1.1

6 1/2

45   

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