The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 16, 2011

PiRate Picks–College and NFL Football: September 16-19, 2011

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , — piratings @ 8:47 am

The Odds Must Be Crazy, or maybe it’s just us.  This week, we found 27 plays that we really liked, and we culled it down to 17.  Maybe it was the 6-3 record from last week that gave us a shot of confidence, but maybe it is our go for broke attitude this year, since we are no longer taking these picks serious.  As we have stated, we no longer charge for our picks, but we no longer have six people studying the games—it’s down to just two.

 

So, remember, as we will state this season—take these picks for what they are worth, or what they cost you to view.

 

1. Penn State -7 vs. Temple

Yes, Temple gets to host the big boys a couple hours northwest of Philly.  Yes, Temple is 2-0 with two slaughters.  Yes, Temple lost by just nine points at Penn State last year. And, yes, Penn State was beaten up by Alabama last week.

 

Now, do those yeses come close to adding up to the fact that Penn State is more than a touchdown better than the Owls?  Or, how about the fact that Temple has not defeated Penn State since before Pearl Harbor was bombed?  Temple’s two blowout victories included wins over Villanova and Akron.  We see the Nittany Lions winning this game 27-10.

 

2. Kentucky -5 ½ vs. Louisville

Kentucky is 2-0 by the hardest.  If not for a couple interceptions, they would have lost to Western Kentucky.  If not for a really stupid coaching decision by Central Michigan coach Dan Enos to go for it on 4th down inside Chippewa territory while nursing a lead, the Wildcats might have lost to CMU as well.

 

Louisville barely beat Murray State and then lost at home to Florida International.  The Cardinals look like the last place team in the Big East.

 

Neither team is very talented, but Kentucky might still sneak by with six wins and bowl eligibility this year.  They have a little confidence following the final 20 minutes of last week’s game, and we believe they will win this game by more than a touchdown—Kentucky 24  Louisville 14

 

3. Central Florida -6 vs. Florida International

We believe the line for this game should be in the double digits.  UCF has a small chance of running the table, if they can win this game and one at BYU later in the season.  FIU is the class of the Sunbelt, but they are not ready to take on one of the top two in CUSA—Central Florida 28  Florida International 17

 

4. Baltimore Ravens -5 ½ vs. Tennessee Titans

If Chris Johnson could only rush for 24 yards against a weak Jacksonville defense, how will he break out against Ray Lewis and company.  The Ravens stopped Pittsburgh’s offense last week, and they can completely shut down Tennessee’s anemic offense.  Johnson’s great rushing games have come with Vince Young at quarterback, because defenses could not key on Johnson with Young capable of booting away from the flow and running to daylight.  Matt Hasselebeck is capable of running for a first down once a game when forced out of the pocket, but when he places the ball in Johnson’s breadbasket, he isn’t going to remove it and take off. 

 

The Ravens’ offense should explode against Tennessee’s weak defense and make this game a laugher—Baltimore 31  Tennessee 9

 

5. New England -6 ½ vs. San Diego

We rarely rely on NFL home field advantage when looking at games, but the Patriots have won 17 straight in Foxboro, and the Chargers are 3-5 in games played in the Eastern Time Zone in the last three seasons.  On top of these trends, the Patriots are just plain better than the Chargers.  San Diego struggled to defeat a woefully weak Minnesota team at home.  We look for Bellichick’s beasts to romp—New England 38  San Diego 20

 

Time To Ride The Money Line

 

We found four parlays that produce odds of less than -130, or less than the odds of a 13-point teaser parlay.  All four of these parlays go off at odds between -118 and -126.

 

6. Money Line Parlay (5 teams) -126

Michigan over Eastern Michigan

Wisconsin over Northern Illinois

Nebraska over Washington

South Carolina over Navy

Southern Cal over Syracuse

 

7. Money Line Parlay (3 teams) -118

Bowling Green over Wyoming

Georgia Tech over Kansas

Oklahoma State over Tulsa

 

8. Money Line Parlay (2 teams) -124

Penn State over Temple

Florida over Tennessee

 

9. Money Line Parlay (2 teams) -121

Houston over Louisiana Tech

Stanford over Arizona

 

Oh, You Are Such a Tease(r)

 

The 13-point teasers worked well for us last week, so we are going to go with five college parlays and three NFL parlays.  For those that care about this, we do not abide by the un-written rules of not playing a teaser where you cross 0 on the spread.  We actually have found better results doing so than not doing so.

 

10. 13-point Teaser

Boise State -7 vs. Toledo

Maryland +12 vs. West Virginia

Auburn + 16 ½ vs. Clemson

Clemson & Auburn OVER 48 ½

 

11. 13-point Teaser

Michigan -15 ½ vs. Eastern Michigan

Penn State +6 vs. Temple

Ole Miss +10 ½ vs. Vanderbilt

Ole Miss & Vanderbilt UNDER 60

 

12. 13-point Teaser

Kansas & Georgia Tech OVER 48 ½

Wisconsin -3 ½ vs. Northern Illinois

Florida +3 ½ vs. Tennessee

Michigan State +18 vs. Notre Dame

 

13. 13-point Teaser

U A B & Tulane UNDER 67

South Carolina & Navy OVER 44 ½

Washington State +18 vs. San Diego State

Kentucky +7 ½ vs. Louisville

 

14. 13-point Teaser

Kentucky & Louisville UNDER 54

Houston +6 vs. Louisiana Tech

Southern Cal & Syracuse UNDER 62

Oklahoma State – ½ vs. Tulsa

 

15. 13-point Teaser

Detroit & Kansas City UNDER 58 ½

New York Jets +1 vs. Jacksonville

New York Jets & Jacksonville OVER 25 ½

Buffalo & Oakland OVER 30

 

16. 13-point Teaser

Washington + 9 ½ vs. Arizona

Washington & Arizona OVER 31 ½

Baltimore +7 ½ vs. Tennessee

Pittsburgh -1 vs. Seattle

 

17. 13-point Teaser

Green Bay + 3 ½ vs. Carolina

Green Bay & Carolina OVER 33 ½

Dallas +10 vs. San Francisco

New England +6 ½ vs. San Diego

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