PiRate Ratings–Pro Football Week Two: September 18-19, 2011

The lack of OTAs and minicamps affected the week one games more than most people realized.  The average total of the 16 games was 47.0, or about three points more than the 2010 average.  The difference appears almost infinitesimal at first look.  The Vegas Line totals for those 16 games averaged out to just 40.5, because the masses of bettors thought the opposite would be true, thinking that the offenses would not be ready; in Week One of 2010, the 16 games averaged a total of 36.6 points per game, or 10.1 points per game less than this year’s opening week games. 

 

We took advantage of the low totals to reduce them by another 13 points on sweetheart teasers, and it led to a profitable week—at least on paper, because we do not wager with Federal Reserve Notes. 

 

Injuries to quarterbacks made for huge swings in two games.  Without Peyton Manning, the Colts looked about as weak as they did in the latter years in Baltimore.  Matt Cassel played for the Chiefs, but the Bills quickly realized his rib injuries prevented him from throwing anything more than short passes.  They capitalized by stuffing the short zones, and most of his passes were thrown no more than five yards downfield.  For the day, he averaged just 3.3 yards per attempt.

 

Did you see the Oakland Raiders on Monday night?  Was that an old-fashioned full-house T formation being used a few times?  And, did the Broncos seem to have trouble defending the multiple faking in the backfield?  It makes you wonder what might happen if someone tried the single wing buck lateral.  Vince Lombardi once told reporters in the mid 1960’s that NFL defenses would be very embarrassed if someone tried running the single wing offense.

 

Since today’s defenses are geared to stop today’s offenses, if an offensive coordinator was brash enough to install a series from an old offense, like the full-house T or single wing, it just may prove to be lethal until all the other teams’ offensive coordinators began copying from it.

 

Tennessee’s Chris Johnson received 40-million dollars plus and rushed for 24 yards in the Titans’ first game.  Has anybody realized that Johnson’s best rushing games came with Vince Young at quarterback?  Could it be that defenses realize there is no way any QB other than Young is going to bootleg away from Johnson and run to daylight?  Kerry Collins was not about to take off last year, and once Collins replaced Young, Johnson’s rushing yardage took a nosedive.  Matt Hasselbeck will not be confused for Bobby Douglas, so without another running option in the backfield and with a weak passing game, expect the Titans’ offense to continue to fizzle.  Baltimore held Pittsburgh to seven points; they can pitch a shutout against Tennessee if they do not turn the ball over.

 

PiRate Ratings For Week Two—September 18-19, 2011

 

NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Philadelphia Eagles	1	–	0	–	0	31	13	107.0	105.4	108.3
New York Giants	0	–	1	–	0	14	28	102.9	100.9	99.4
Dallas Cowboys	0	–	1	–	0	24	27	101.6	102.0	103.0
Washington Redskins	1	–	0	–	0	28	14	96.7	99.0	98.4
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay Packers	1	–	0	–	0	42	34	107.6	108.0	109.6
Chicago Bears	1	–	0	–	0	30	12	104.8	103.5	105.1
Detroit Lions	1	–	0	–	0	27	20	100.9	100.1	101.8
Minnesota Vikings	0	–	1	–	0	17	24	97.4	100.3	94.6
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans Saints	0	–	1	–	0	34	42	105.9	103.4	105.3
Atlanta Falcons	0	–	1	–	0	12	30	103.3	101.2	103.8
Tampa Bay Bucaneers	0	–	1	–	0	20	27	98.2	98.6	97.4
Carolina Panthers	0	–	1	–	0	21	28	91.2	93.3	90.8
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco 49ers	1	–	0	–	0	33	17	96.5	97.7	99.3
St. Louis Rams	0	–	1	–	0	13	31	95.6	93.3	94.0
Arizona Cardinals	1	–	0	–	0	28	21	94.7	94.6	94.1
Seattle Seahawks	0	–	1	–	0	17	33	91.5	93.3	91.4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England Patriots	1	–	0	–	0	38	24	110.8	109.9	111.8
New York Jets	1	–	0	–	0	27	24	106.3	105.1	107.5
Miami Dolphins	0	–	1	–	0	24	38	99.0	98.7	100.6
Buffalo Bills	1	–	0	–	0	41	7	95.7	98.7	98.7
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Baltimore Ravens	1	–	0	–	0	35	7	107.6	108.1	109.0
Pittsburgh Steelers	0	–	1	–	0	7	35	106.5	104.1	103.2
Cincinnati Bengals	1	–	0	–	0	27	17	95.6	97.6	100.3
Cleveland Browns	0	–	1	–	0	17	27	93.3	94.6	93.2
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Houston Texans	1	–	0	–	0	34	7	105.0	103.2	103.9
Indianapolis Colts	0	–	1	–	0	7	34	99.6	99.0	96.6
Jacksonville Jaguars	1	–	0	–	0	16	14	96.5	97.2	96.2
Tennessee Titans	0	–	1	–	0	14	16	96.0	98.7	94.0
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego Chargers	1	–	0	–	0	24	17	106.0	104.4	106.7
Kansas City Chiefs	0	–	1	–	0	7	41	97.2	93.7	93.8
Oakland Raiders	1	–	0	–	0	23	20	96.8	98.0	96.4
Denver Broncos	0	–	1	–	0	20	23	92.9	94.5	91.9

 

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Picks—September 18-19, 2011

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 2: September 18-19, 2011
Vegas Line as of 1:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
NEW ORLEANS	Chicago	1.6	0.4	0.7	7	47
DETROIT	Kansas City	7.7	10.4	12.0	8	44 1/2
NEW YORK JETS	Jacksonville	12.3	10.4	13.8	9 1/2	38
Oakland	BUFFALO	0.1	-1.7	-3.3	4	41 1/2
WASHINGTON	Arizona	4.5	6.9	6.8	4 1/2	44
Baltimore	TENNESSEE	9.1	6.9	12.5	6	37 1/2
PITTSBURGH	Seattle	18.0	13.8	14.8	14 1/2	39 1/2
Green Bay	CAROLINA	15.4	13.7	17.8	10	46 1/2
Tampa Bay	MINNESOTA	0.8	-1.7	2.8	-3	40 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	Cleveland	7.8	5.9	4.9	-2 1/2	37 1/2
Dallas	SAN FRANCISCO	1.1	0.3	-0.3	-3	42 1/2
Houston	MIAMI	6.0	4.5	3.3	-3	47
NEW ENGLAND	San Diego	6.3	7.0	6.6	6 1/2	52 1/2
Cincinnati	DENVER	1.2	1.6	6.9	-4 1/2	40
Philadelphia	ATLANTA	2.2	2.7	3.0	2 1/2	49 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS	St. Louis	8.3	8.6	6.4	6	42