Are you ready for some football? For a long time this summer, we weren’t sure we would be able to utter that statement, as the NFL lockout continued without any progress.
So, while the NBA deals with a stoppage that could eliminate the entire 2011-12 season (who is going to notice outside of the handful of remaining NBA fans?), football will go on as if nothing happened. Except for the Hall of Fame Game, nothing was lost.
It is a great thing that the first week of the 2011 season was not cancelled, because in our opinions (really just mine on this one since I am the greybeard), this may be the best opening week of the season since the NFL and AFL merged but were still separate in the late 1960’s.
The schedule is loaded with interesting games, and the NFL schedule-makers are to be applauded for creating a “story” with almost every game on the slate.
It all starts Thursday night. President Obama will be the warm-up act. He will try to offer a pep talk to get people to “buy the Kool-Aid” and believe that his 1-15 of last year that has lost some key players to free agency and traded away the first overall pick in the last draft has a chance to win this year. Most of the fans will quickly realize the pep talk is just that. Another 1-15 or 2-14 season will precede his being fired by the owners of the team next November.
After the speech, defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay faces the Super Bowl Champion from the year before, New Orleans. Rodgers vs. Brees on opening night will be terrific TV.
On Sunday, the Ravens host Pittsburgh in an early key game. The last seven times these teams have faced off in the regular season, the margin of victory was either three or four points. Expect more of the same.
Tampa Bay hosts Detroit. If the Buccaneers win, Raheem Morris will be a genius, and the fans and media will call for the Bucs to challenge for another 10-win season. If the Lions win, then they will “prove” all the pundits correct when they anointed Jim Schwartz as the new guru.
The Bears host the Falcons in a game of division winners from 2010. Both teams face difficult schedules this season, having to face all four division winners from the NFC plus one from the AFC. This is sort of like an adjunct to the opening game on Thursday night with the second place teams from their divisions facing off.
Houston hosts Indianapolis. Gary Kubiak needs to win and get to the playoffs this year, or he may be a commentator or coordinator in 2012. The Colts will not have Peyton Manning available and will have to do with recently unretired Kerry Collins. The Texans have to win this game, because their next three games are tough. A loss in the opener could tumble the Texans to a 2-6 first half start.
The Rams host the new “Dream Team,” but are the Eagles all that they are cracked up to be? Most championship teams have all-star linebackers on defense, and we do not see one on this roster.
Can Sam Bradford revive the Rams’ offense and make it look like Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger did when the Edward Jones Dome was a very unfriendly place for a visiting team?
The Giants go on the road to Washington, where they have won five consecutive games at Fedex Field. With Philadelphia having a tricky road game, this could give the Giants a great chance to get a leg up on their rival.
Cam Newton’s first game with Carolina will overshadow Kevin Kolb’s Arizona Cardinals debut in Phoenix. The Cardinals fell to 4-12 last year and will benefit from having the easiest schedule in the NFC West. Since 8-8 will probably win this division, and 7-9 could possibly win it again, this is a must-win game for the Cardinals.
San Francisco and Seattle face off in Candlestick Park, so at least one NFC West team will open 1-0, assuming this game does not end in a tie. Don’t forget there is a not-so-friendly rivalry between the two coaches in this game. San Francisco coach Jim Harbaugh and Seattle coach Pete Carroll had their moments when Harbaugh was at Stanford and Carroll was at USC. Remember that 55-21 pasting Stanford put on Carroll’s last USC team, and how he ran up the score?
On Sunday Night, the Jets host the Cowboys. Will Mark Sanchez be able to take New York to the next level? Can Rex Ryan’s defense carry the team back to the playoffs if Sanchez is no better? What about the Cowboys? Jason Garrett guided Dallas to a 5-3 record in the second half of 2010. Can he put two 5-3 halves together?
We get our annual Monday night doubleheader, and the early game should be interesting. Miami hosts New England, and the Dolphins are in a state of flux with multiple losses of personnel from 2010. As for the Patriots, what can they do for an encore after going 14-2 last year?
Here are the opening PiRate Ratings for the 2011 NFL Season. If you want a brief explanation of the three different ratings, see “The Three Pro Football Ratings Explained at: https://piratings.wordpress.com/category/explanation-of-pro-football-ratings/
| NFC East |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
105.9 |
106.4 |
106.2 |
| New York Giants |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
105.4 |
104.0 |
105.6 |
| Dallas Cowboys |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
101.3 |
101.8 |
101.9 |
| Washington Redskins |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
94.2 |
94.0 |
93.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| NFC North |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| Green Bay Packers |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
107.3 |
107.9 |
108.0 |
| Chicago Bears |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
102.5 |
100.8 |
102.3 |
| Detroit Lions |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
100.2 |
100.0 |
101.4 |
| Minnesota Vikings |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
97.3 |
96.6 |
95.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| NFC South |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| New Orleans Saints |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
106.2 |
105.5 |
105.2 |
| Atlanta Falcons |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
105.6 |
105.3 |
106.5 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
98.9 |
100.7 |
99.4 |
| Carolina Panthers |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
91.0 |
92.7 |
89.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| NFC West |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| St. Louis Rams |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
96.7 |
98.4 |
99.2 |
| San Francisco 49ers |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
96.0 |
96.2 |
97.1 |
| Arizona Cardinals |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
94.9 |
99.6 |
99.0 |
| Seattle Seahawks |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
92.0 |
95.0 |
94.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| AFC East |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| New England Patriots |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
110.5 |
108.0 |
109.5 |
| New York Jets |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
106.0 |
105.2 |
106.3 |
| Miami Dolphins |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
99.3 |
98.5 |
100.6 |
| Buffalo Bills |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
91.7 |
92.5 |
90.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| AFC North |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
109.0 |
95.0 |
103.9 |
| Baltimore Ravens |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
105.1 |
104.6 |
105.1 |
| Cleveland Browns |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
94.5 |
105.9 |
97.8 |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
94.4 |
92.9 |
93.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| AFC South |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| Indianapolis Colts |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
103.3 |
104.4 |
103.5 |
| Houston Texans |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
101.3 |
101.8 |
102.5 |
| Tennessee Titans |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
96.3 |
95.5 |
93.4 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
96.2 |
97.3 |
97.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
| AFC West |
Won |
|
Lost |
|
Tied |
Pts |
Opp |
PiRate |
Mean |
Biased |
| San Diego Chargers |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
106.1 |
104.9 |
104.7 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
101.2 |
100.3 |
100.1 |
| Oakland Raiders |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
96.6 |
95.2 |
92.8 |
| Denver Broncos |
0 |
– |
0 |
– |
0 |
0 |
0 |
93.1 |
94.4 |
92.8 |
Here are the PiRate Spreads and early lines for Week One of the NFL season.
| This Week’s Games | ||||||
| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site | |||||
| Week 1: September 8-12, 2011 | ||||||
| Vegas Line as of Tuesday, September 6, 2011 @11:45 AM EDT | ||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals |
| GREEN BAY | New Orleans | 3.1 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4 | 47 1/2 |
| Pittsburgh | BALTIMORE | 2.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | -3 | 36 |
| Detroit | TAMPA BAY | 1.3 | -0.7 | 2.0 | -2 | 41 |
| Atlanta | CHICAGO | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3 | 41 |
| KANSAS CITY | Buffalo | 12.5 | 10.8 | 12.4 | 5 1/2 | 39 1/2 |
| HOUSTON | Indianapolis | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 8 1/2 | 43 |
| Philadelphia | ST. LOUIS | 7.2 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 5 | 44 |
| CLEVELAND | Cincinnati | 2.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 6 1/2 | 36 |
| JACKSONVILLE | Tennessee | 1.4 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 3 | 39 |
| New York Giants | WASHINGTON | 8.7 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 3 | 38 |
| ARIZONA | Carolina | 8.4 | 11.4 | 14.1 | 7 | 37 |
| SAN FRANCISCO | Seattle | 7.5 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 5 | 38 |
| SAN DIEGO | Minnesota | 13.8 | 13.3 | 13.8 | 8 1/2 | 41 1/2 |
| NEW YORK JETS | Dallas | 7.2 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4 1/2 | 41 |
| New England | MIAMI | 11.2 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 7 | 45 1/2 |
| Oakland | DENVER | 1.0 | -1.7 | -2.5 | -3 | 40 |
Predictions For 2011-2012
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys 9-7
New York Giants 10-6
Philadelphia Eagles 11-5
Washington Redskins 5-11
NFC North
Chicago Bears 9-7
Detroit Lions 8-8
Green Bay Packers 12-4
Minnesota Vikings 6-10
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons 11-5
Carolina Panthers 3-13
New Orleans Saints 12-4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-9
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals 6-10
St. Louis Rams 6-10
San Francisco 49ers 7-9
Seattle Seahawks 6-10
AFC East
Buffalo Bills 5-11
Miami Dolphins 7-9
New England Patriots 12-4
New York Jets 12-4
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens 12-4
Cincinnati Bengals 4-12
Cleveland Browns 7-9
Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4
AFC South
Houston Texans 10-6
Indianapolis Colts 10-6
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12
Tennessee Titans 6-10
AFC West
Denver Broncos 4-12
Kansas City Chiefs 8-8
Oakland Raiders 5-11
San Diego Chargers 10-6
Playoffs
Wildcard
New York Giants over Philadelphia
Atlanta over San Francisco
Baltimore over Indianapolis
New York Jets over San Diego
Divisional
Green Bay over Atlanta
New York Giants over New Orleans
Baltimore over New England
New York Jets over Pittsburgh
Conference Championship
New York Giants over Green Bay
New York Jets over Baltimore
Super Bowl
New York Giants over New York Jets
The Pi-Rate Ratings 