The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 1, 2011

PiRate Picks For September 1-5, 2011

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:52 am

PiRate Picks For September 1-5, 2011

To Paraphrase the legendary former Tennessee Volunteers radio announcer John Ward, “It’s Football Time in America.”

 

For a lot of you reading this, the past year or two or ten have not been the most financially sound years.  We understand your plight; we have been there ourselves.

 

During the Great Depression of the 1930’s, many Americans relied on diversions to forget their plight.  They turned to the new great medium of talkies—movies with sound, making Shirley Temple a great star.

 

Many listened to their large radios, as Jack Benny, Fred Allen, and George and Gracie gave them some laughs.

 

A large part of the nation turned to baseball.  With Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig, Jimmy Foxx, Hank Greenberg, Mel Ott, Lefty Grove, and later in the decade Ted Williams, Joe Dimaggio, and Bob Feller, the nation was able to forget all their troubles for at least a couple of hours at a time.

 

That is what we are trying to do here with our football selections this year.  We no longer will be charging customers for our picks.  We were only 54.5% correct last year (97-81-3) after finishing above 60% the year before, so we decided to make these picks fun and not serious. 

 

Now, for the disclaimer: we advise against using this information for illegal purposes.  Truth be told: none of us here have placed a monetary wager on any football games outside the state of Nevada EVER!  This is more about having fun than trying to own the Las Vegas Hilton.  So, please do not lose whatever you have left, even if our money is phony fiat currency, because you have taken the advice of this blog.

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1. Wake Forest + 6 ½ vs. SYRACUSE

 

Syracuse is a weaker team this year with the loss of seven key defensive players and their star running back.  They won four games by six points or less.  Three of their other four wins came against Akron, Maine, and Colgate.  We have the Orangemen pegged for the bottom of the Big East this year

 

Wake Forest has suffered through back-to-back losing seasons after earning bowl bids three consecutive seasons.  They have most of their skill position players returning on offense, and they have a lot of experience returning on defense.  Against teams that we believe to be about as strong last year as Syracuse is this year, The Demon Deacons beat Duke by six, lost to Georgia Tech by four, and lost to Navy by one. 

 

We believe Wake Forest has almost a 50% chance of winning this game straight up and do not worry about the tricky six point spread losing by one.  We would take this game at +4 hoping to get one point more than the field goal.

 

2. T C U & Baylor UNDER 56

 

TCU starts life without Andy Dalton and three of the top four receivers from last year’s team that averaged 42 points per game.  Against teams from the automatic qualifying conferences, they averaged less than 26 points per game over the last three seasons.  The Horned Frogs’ defense is still in decent shape, and even with the loss of several starters from 2010, the backups got a lot of playing time and did well.  In those games against AQ conference teams in the last three years, TCU has given up less than 18 points per game.  26+18 = 44.

 

Baylor scored just 10 points on TCU last year.  The Bears averaged more than 31 points per game and gave up almost 31, so on the surface, it appears as if they could get into a shootout with most teams.  However, against teams with good defenses, much like what we expect from TCU, they have averaged just over 17 points per game the last three years.

 

We believe Baylor will be fired up for this home game/revenge game.  A win on national TV against an undefeated Top 3 opponent from last year would verify them as a legitimate minor power.

 

We are looking for a close game with either team winning by a score of about 24-21.  That is 11 points under the total for the game.

 

3. 10-point Teaser

A. North Texas & Florida Int’l UNDER 64

B. Kentucky & Western Kentucky UNDER 61

C. T C U & Baylor UNDER 66

 

4. 10-point Teaser

A. Ohio State & Akron UNDER 58

B. UCLA +13 vs. Houston

C. Michigan -4 vs. Western Michigan

 

5. 10-point Teaser

A. Southern Cal & Minnesota UNDER 61 ½

B. Notre Dame – ½ vs. South Florida

C. Ole Miss +13 vs. B Y U

 

6. 10-point Teaser

A. Ole Miss & Baylor OVER 47

B. California Even vs. Fresno State

C. Army & Northern Illinois UNDER 64 ½

 

7. 10-point Teaser

A. Indiana +4 vs. Ball State

B. New Mexico State + 17 ½ vs. Ohio U

C. Texas A&M -5 vs. S M U

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