Tip Time: Approximately 9:23 PM EDT (but expect it to be a couple minutes late)
Location: Reliant Stadium, Houston (Home of the Houston Astros)
Television: CBS
Radio: Westwood One
It has happened before. A team that lost in the National Championship Game one year has returned to the title game a year later. It has happened thrice. Two times, the team in question lost again. In 1983 and 1984, Houston lost to North Carolina State and Georgetown. In 1992 and 1993, Michigan lost to Duke and North Carolina.
In 1990, Duke was embarrassed by UNLV in the biggest Championship Game loss in history, but the Blue Devils came back in 1991 to beat Kansas for all the marbles.
Butler Bulldogs
Location: Indianapolis, IN
Conference: Horizon League
Record: 28-9
| Butler Bulldogs–Starters in Bold | |||||||||
| No. | Name | Pos. | Class | Ht | Wt | PPG | RPG | Other | |
| 1 | Shelvin Mack | G | Jr | 6-03 | 215 | 16.1 | 4.4 | 3.5 Ast | |
| 2 | Shawn Vanzant | G | Sr | 6-00 | 172 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 41.7% 3-pt, 1.7 Ast | |
| 3 | Zach Hahn | G | Sr | 6-01 | 176 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 85.7% FT | |
| 4 | Erik Fromm | F | Fr | 6-09 | 220 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 26 G, 3.4 min | |
| 5 | Ronald Nored | G | Jr | 6-00 | 174 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 2.4 Ast, 1.1 Stl, A+ defender | |
| 11 | Alex Anglin | G/F | Sr | 6-05 | 177 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 18 G, 4.3 min | |
| 20 | Chrishawn Hopkins | G | Fr | 6-01 | 165 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 20 G, 6.1 min | |
| 22 | Grant Leiendecker | G | Sr | 6-05 | 182 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 15 G, 2.3 min | |
| 23 | Khyle Marshall | F | Fr | 6-07 | 210 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 51.7% FG, 15.4 min | |
| 30 | Emerson Kampen | C | So | 6-09 | 189 | 0 | 0.1 | 15 G, 1.9 min | |
| 32 | Garrett Butcher | F | Jr | 6-07 | 209 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 29 G, 7.4 min | |
| 33 | Chase Stigall | G | So | 6-04 | 195 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 16.2 min | |
| 44 | Andrew Smith | C | So | 6-11 | 239 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 61% FG | |
| 54 | Matt Howard | F | Sr | 6-08 | 230 | 16.7 | 7.8 | 1.5 Ast, 1.1 Stl | |
| Head Coach | Brad Stevens | ||||||||
| Assistant | Matthew Graves | ||||||||
| Assistant | Terry Johnson | ||||||||
| Assistant | Micah Shrewsberry | ||||||||
| Team Stats | Butler | Opp | |||||||
| Points Per Game | 72.1 | 64.4 | |||||||
| Field Goal % | 44.1 | 42.6 | |||||||
| 3-point % | 35.5 | 32.8 | |||||||
| FT % | 72.9 | 66.8 | |||||||
| Rebounds Per Game | 35.0 | 31.5 | |||||||
| Turnovers Per Game | 11.1 | 12.5 | |||||||
| Steals Per Game | 5.9 | ||||||||
| R + T (*) | 5.48 | ||||||||
| SOS | 55 | ||||||||
| Road Win % | 70 | ||||||||
| PiRate Criteria # | 6 | ||||||||
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(*) R+T= [R+({.2S}*{1.2T})], where R is reb. margin, T=Turnover margin, S=Steals per game |
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| If turnover margin is negative, then adjust it to: R+T= [R+({.2S}+{1.2T})] | |||||||||
Connecticut Huskies
Location: Storrs, CT
Conference: Big East
Record: 31-9
| Connecticut Huskies–Starters in Bold | ||||||||
| No. | Name | Pos. | Class | Ht | Wt | PPG | RPG | Other |
| 1 | Enosch Wolf | C | Fr | 7-01 | 260 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 7 G, 3.7 min |
| 2 | Donnell Beverly | G | Sr | 6-04 | 190 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 8.6 min |
| 3 | Jeremy Lamb | G/F | Fr | 6-05 | 185 | 11.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 Ast |
| 4 | Jamal Coombs-McDaniel | F | So | 6-07 | 210 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 80% FT |
| 5 | Niels Giffey | G/F | Fr | 6-07 | 210 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 9.5 min |
| 10 | Tyler Olander | F | Fr | 6-09 | 225 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 9.7 min |
| 13 | Shabazz Napier | G | Fr | 6-00 | 170 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 3.1 Ast, 1.6 Stl |
| 15 | Kemba Walker | G | Jr | 6-01 | 172 | 23.7 | 5.4 | 81.8% FT, 4.6 Ast, 1.9 Stl |
| 21 | Kyle Bailey | G | Sr | 6-03 | 170 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6 G, 1.0 min |
| 22 | Roscoe Smith | F | Fr | 6-08 | 205 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 1.2 Blk |
| 23 | Benjamin Stewart | F | Jr | 6-05 | 205 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 4 G, 1.0 min |
| 34 | Alex Oriakhi | F/C | So | 6-09 | 240 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 1.6 Blk |
| 35 | Charles Okwandu | C | Sr | 7-00 | 255 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 Blk |
| Head Coach | Jim Calhoun | |||||||
| Assistant | George Blaney | |||||||
| Assistant | Andre LaFleur | |||||||
| Assistant | Kevin Ollie | |||||||
| Team Stats | U Conn | Opp | ||||||
| Points Per Game | 72.8 | 65.4 | ||||||
| Field Goal % | 43.6 | 39.8 | ||||||
| 3-point % | 33.3 | 32.9 | ||||||
| FT % | 76.1 | 68.2 | ||||||
| Rebounds Per Game | 39.3 | 35.2 | ||||||
| Turnovers Per Game | 11.4 | 11.7 | ||||||
| Steals Per Game | 6.4 | |||||||
| R + T (*) | 4.56 | |||||||
| SOS | 61 | |||||||
| Road Win % | 78 | |||||||
| PiRate Criteria # | 11 | |||||||
Player Matchups
5: Butler—Andrew Smith vs. Connecticut—Charles Okwandu
Smith is quicker and more agile than Okwandu. Smith can force Okawandu outside of the low post, while Okwandu does not have to be guarded when he is more than 10 feet away from the hoop. In the paint, Okwandu has a strength advantage, but much of this advantage can be neutralized by Smith’s superior mobility.
Advantage: Smith by a little
4: Butler—Matt Howard vs. Connecticut—Alex Oriakhi
This is one of two keys to the game. Howard can turn the tide of this game if he is on target from outside. Oriakhi is a key rebounder for UConn, and if he is forced to stay outside to keep Howard from getting open looks, much of Connecticut’s rebounding advantage will dissipate. Oriakhi can dominate Howard inside, and he has a chance to be a surprise hero in this game.
When UCLA was dominating the Championship Game, the Bruins always had a surprise showing from a player that had not been expected to shine. Memories of Steve Patterson almost single-handedly defeating Villanova in 1971 come to mind. Ironically, that game was played next door at the Astrodome.
Advantage: Howard, but it needs to be a decided advantage and it may not
3: Butler—Chase Stigall vs. Connecticut—Roscoe Smith
Smith has a big size advantage, but he is not a major contributor. Stigall starts, but he does not play half the time. He will split minutes with Khyle Marshall and others.
Look for Smith to win this positional battle for the Huskies, but it shouldn’t be what swings this game.
Advantage: Smith, but by an inconsequential amount.
2. Butler—Shawn Vanzant vs. Connecticut—Jeremy Lamb
Lamb has the potential to be the game-decider if Butler forgets he is capable of scoring 15-18 points in a game where 60 points might win the title. He has a size and quickness advantage over Vanzant.
Vanzant is a better outside shooter, and if he could drain a couple of threes in the first half, it could mean a lot for Butler.
Advantage: Lamb, and the amount of advantage could be the difference in this game
1. Butler—Shelvin Mack vs. Connecticut—Kemba Walker
Walker would have the advantage over every other guard in the nation, so this is not really up for discussion. However, if Mack could force Walker to take a few more shots to get his average and force his passes wide, Butler could in essence win this positional battle.
Walker absolutely must have a typical or better than typical game. He will lead the Huskies in scoring; he will dish out four or five assists, and he will come up with a couple of steals.
Mack could match Walker point-for-point in this game, but if that happens, Butler will not win this game. Mack’s ability to get the ball in low for easy shots is more important than his scoring ability. We do not mean to say that he should forego shooting; we refer to Mack’s trying to score 25 points to match Walker. If he scores 15 points and dishes out an equal amount of assists to Walker, then he will have done his job.
Advantage: Walker, but will it be enough?
Bench: Butler—Zach Hahn, Ronald Nored, Khyle Marshall vs. Connecticut—Jamal Coombs-McDaniel, Niels Giffey, Tyler Olander, Shabazz Napier
Butler’s three bench players each brings something different to the table. Hahn is probably the best shooter in this game. He is a rhythm shooter. If he hits his first three, the opponent has to change its defense to keep from being shot out of the gym.
Nored is the best defender in this game, and he will be called on to temper Walker. Going back to our 1971 UCLA comparison, he is the Kenny Heitz of Butler.
Marshall can come in and produce instant inside offense, and he plays tough defense in the lane. He will see as much playing time as Stigall.
Connecticut goes nine-deep, but there is not more quality in their additional quantity. The Husky bench is rather weak, with Napier and Coombs-McDaniel the two best reserves. Neither should be much of a factor in this game.
Advantage: Butler by enough to matter if the game is strenuous.
Our Prediction: We see this game playing out in a similar manner to last year’s Championship Game. Connecticut has the talent to win this game by double digits, but Butler plays so intelligently and can keep this game close with a chance to win at the end.
If Walker has a big night, we do not believe Mack and Nored can come up with enough stops to prevent him from scoring 20-25 points in a limited possession game. If Walker tries to be a superhero and commits five turnovers while shooting too many off-balance shots, then he could still score 20 points but give up more than 20 points to Butler.
Upon reviewing all the players’ abilities and tendencies, we believe this game will be decided at the four position. If Howard goes out with a career night, Butler will cut down the nets. If he has a typical night, this game will still be in doubt after the final TV timeout. If he has an off night, Connecticut will win by eight to 12 points.
We tend to believe this will be just as memorable as last year’s game with the strong possibility that the team that scores the last points will win the game. We believe there is a good chance this game could still be undecided after 40 minutes. There have been few overtime games in the championship.
The first OT title game came in 1944 when Utah edged Dartmouth 42-40 at Madison Square Garden. In 1957, North Carolina defeated Kansas and Wilt Chamberlain in triple OT 54-53. Cincinnati appeared in two OT title games; the first was a happy ending with a 70-65 OT thriller over in-state rival and defending national champ Ohio State. In 1963, Loyola of Chicago upset Bearcats 60-58 in OT. Michigan edged Seton Hall in OT 80-79 in the 1989 title game. In 1997, Arizona pulled off a big upset over defending national champ Kentucky by a score of 84-79 , and Kansas defeated Memphis in OT in 2008 by a score of 75-68.
Predicted Score: Connecticut 69 Butler 66 in double OT!
The Pi-Rate Ratings 