PiRate Ratings Final Four Viewing Guide and Preview, Saturday, April 2, 2011

UNCLE!!!  Yes, we cry uncle.  Our PiRate Criteria failed to predict a Final Four team for the first time since we began predicting for the media six years ago.  In backtests, it isolated at least one Final Four every year back to the advent of the 64-team tournament.

 

PiRate Criteria Rating in (parentheses)

All Games on CBS Television and Westwood One Radio

 

Saturday, April 2, 2011

Final Four Site: Reliant Stadium, Houston

 

6:09 PM EDT—Virginia Commonwealth 28-11 (1) vs. Butler 27-9 (6)

Virginia Commonwealth Rams–Starters in Bold
No.	Name	Pos.	Class	Ht	Wt	PPG	RPG	Other
5	Juvonte Reddic	F	Fr	6-09	225	3.5	1.9	0.5 Stl, 11.2 min
10	Darius Theus	G	So	6-03	190	3.1	1.5	2.1 Ast, 1.1 Stl, 15.4 min
12	Joey Rodriguez	G	Sr	5-10	175	10.5	3.3	81.6% FT, 5.1 Ast, 1.5 Stl
20	Bradford Burgess	G	Jr	6-06	225	14.3	6.2	42.8% 3pt, 1.1 Stl
21	Jamie Skeen	F	Sr	6-09	240	15.4	7.4	51.6% FG, 1.6 Ast
23	Rob Brandenberg	G	Fr	6-02	170	5.1	1.7	13.9 min
30	Troy Daniels	G	So	6-04	195	2.1	0.8	26 G, 4.8 min
31	Toby Veal	F	Jr	6-08	235	2.4	2.2	29 G, 9.9 min
32	Brandon Rozzell	G	Sr	6-02	185	11.8	2.3	40.4% 3pt, 1.5 Ast. 1.4 Stl
33	D. J. Haley	C	Fr	7-00	250	1.1	1.6	53.1% FG, 7.8 min
34	David Hinton	F	So	6-09	235	0.7	0.2	18 G, 3.7 min
50	Ed Nixon	G	Sr	6-04	210	7.1	2.6	1.9 Ast, 1.2 Stl
Head Coach		Shaka Smart
Assistant		Will Wade
Assistant		Mike Rhoades
Assistant		Mike Jones
Team Stats		VCU			Opp
Points Per Game		71.8			66.7
Field Goal %		43.6			44.4
3-point %		37.0			33.5
FT %		71.6			67.4
Rebounds Per Game		32.3			36.1
Turnovers Per Game		11.3			14.7
Steals Per Game		8.3
R + T (*)		2.97
SOS		55
Road Win %		68
PiRate Criteria #		1
(*) R+T= [R+({.2S}*{1.2T})], where R is reb. margin, T=Turnover margin, S=Steals per game
If turnover margin is negative, then adjust it to: R+T= [R+({.2S}+{1.2T})]

 

Butler Bulldogs–Starters in Bold
No.	Name	Pos.	Class	Ht	Wt	PPG	RPG	Other
1	Shelvin Mack	G	Jr	6-03	215	15.9	4.3	3.6 Ast
2	Shawn Vanzant	G	Sr	6-00	172	8.1	3.2	42.0% 3-pt, 1.7 Ast
3	Zach Hahn	G	Sr	6-01	176	5.0	1.1	85.7% FT
4	Erik Fromm	F	Fr	6-09	220	0.8	0.5	26 G, 3.4 min
5	Ronald Nored	G	Jr	6-00	174	5.3	3.1	2.5 Ast, 1.2 Stl, A+ defender
11	Alex Anglin	G/F	Sr	6-05	177	0.7	0.7	18 G, 4.3 min
20	Chrishawn Hopkins	G	Fr	6-01	165	1.6	0.5	20 G, 6.1 min
22	Grant Leiendecker	G	Sr	6-05	182	1.2	0.3	15 G, 2.3 min
23	Khyle Marshall	F	Fr	6-07	210	5.9	3.8	52.4% FG, 15.2 min
30	Emerson Kampen	C	So	6-09	189	0.0	0.1	15 G, 1.9 min
32	Garrett Butcher	F	Jr	6-07	209	1.6	1.3	29 G, 7.4 min
33	Chase Stigall	G	So	6-04	195	3.9	1.7	16.3 min
44	Andrew Smith	C	So	6-11	239	8.8	5.4	62.1% FG
54	Matt Howard	F	Sr	6-08	230	16.7	7.7	1.5 Ast, 1.1 Stl
Head Coach		Brad Stevens
Assistant		Matthew Graves
Assistant		Terry Johnson
Assistant		Micah Shrewsberry
Team Stats		Butler			Opp
Points Per Game		72.1			64.5
Field Goal %		44.3			42.7
3-point %		35.5			32.6
FT %		72.7			66.8
Rebounds Per Game		34.7			31.5
Turnovers Per Game		11.1			12.6
Steals Per Game		5.9
R + T (*)		5.32
SOS		55
Road Win %		68
PiRate Criteria #		6

Virginia Commonwealth is the first team with a negative PiRate Criteria rating to win an Elite Eight round game.  The results of that game elevated their number into positive territory, but we still wonder about their rebounding difficulties.  VCU has won five games in this tournament, and four were not all that close.  The Rams have maintained a hot shooting touch from outside, and their 3-point percentage has been much higher in the postseason than it was during the regular season.

 

The VCU press has had its moments during the Big Dance as well, as a couple of opponents had trouble with it.  Can the Rams survive to the final round?  It is possible, but we tend to believe that their shooting prowess will eventually regress to the norm.  The Rams are overdue for a bad outside shooting game, and in a baseball domed stadium, the sightlines will not be like anything they have seen before.

 

Butler has the experience here.  They are the most seasoned of the teams left, and the Bulldogs can no longer be considered a Cinderella team.  In fact, we tend to see Butler very much like a 21^st Century version of Marquette during the Al McGuire years.  This team can continue to be a serious player in the national tournament scene. 

 

Butler will be able to handle the VCU press.  They will inbound the ball quickly and return it quickly to the inbound passer who will have an opening to break the press with numbers.  The Bulldogs can run when they need to, and a couple of easy baskets and/or fouls early could force VCU to panic.  The Butler perimeter defense will cover the VCU shooters tightly, and Nored will make life miserable for any opponent trying to shoot from outside.

 

This is a must-see game.  It should be close, and we do not see Butler pulling away to win by a big margin.  VCU could still have a chance to win with one quick spurt, and the Rams are capable of going on a quick spurt.  Ask Kansas about that.

 

Prediction: Butler 65  VCU 61

 

Approximately 8:49 PM—Kentucky 29-8 (18) vs. Connecticut 30-9 (11)

 

Kentucky Wildcats–Starters in Bold
No.	Name	Pos.	Class	Ht	Wt	PPG	RPG	Other
1	Darius Miller	G	Jr	6-07	225	11.1	4.6	44.9% 3-pt, 86.4% FT, 1.7 Ast
2	Stacey Poole	G	Fr	6-04	195	0.3	0.5	16 G, 2.8 min
3	Terrence Jones	F	Fr	6-08	244	15.8	8.7	1.9 Blk, 1.1 Stl
4	Jon Hood	G	So	6-07	202	0.8	0.7	33 G, 4.8 min
5	Jarrod Polson	G	Fr	6-02	185	0.4	0.1	17 G, 1.8 min
12	Brandon Knight	G	Fr	6-03	185	17.3	3.9	4.2 Ast
20	Doron Lamb	G	Fr	6-04	195	12.3	2.0	48.1% 3-pt, 1.7 Ast
30	Eloy Vargas	F	Jr	6-11	250	1.5	1.9	7.7 min
34	DeAndre Liggins	G	Jr	6-06	210	8.8	4.1	40.2% 3-pt, 2.5 Ast, 1.2 Stl
55	Josh Harrellson	F	Sr	6-10	275	7.6	8.8	61.4% FG, 1.5 Blk
Head Coach		John Calipari
Assistant		John Robic
Assistant		Orlando Antigua
Assistant		Kenny Payne
Team Stats		UK			Opp
Points Per Game		75.4			63.7
Field Goal %		46.3			39.3
3-point %		40.0			32.8
FT %		71.6			72.2
Rebounds Per Game		37.4			33.7
Turnovers Per Game		10.7			12.0
Steals Per Game		5.4
R + T (*)		5.38
SOS		61
Road Win %		64
PiRate Criteria #		18

 

Connecticut Huskies–Starters in Bold
No.	Name	Pos.	Class	Ht	Wt	PPG	RPG	Other
1	Enosch Wolf	C	Fr	7-01	260	1.0	0.9	7 G, 3.7 min
2	Donnell Beverly	G	Sr	6-04	190	1.8	1.3	8.8 min
3	Jeremy Lamb	G/F	Fr	6-05	185	11.1	4.3	1.5 Ast
4	Jamal Coombs-McDaniel	F	So	6-07	210	5.8	2.7	81.5% FT
5	Niels Giffey	G/F	Fr	6-07	210	2.2	1.3	9.5 min
10	Tyler Olander	F	Fr	6-09	225	1.5	1.8	9.8 min
13	Shabazz Napier	G	Fr	6-00	170	8.0	2.4	3.0 Ast, 1.6 Stl
15	Kemba Walker	G	Jr	6-01	172	23.9	5.3	81.8% FT, 4.5 Ast, 1.9 Stl
21	Kyle Bailey	G	Sr	6-03	170	0.0	0.0	6 G, 1.0 min
22	Roscoe Smith	F	Fr	6-08	205	6.5	5.2	1.2 Blk
23	Benjamin Stewart	F	Jr	6-05	205	0.5	0.5	4 G, 1.0 min
34	Alex Oriakhi	F/C	So	6-09	240	9.6	8.6	1.6 Blk
35	Charles Okwandu	C	Sr	7-00	255	2.9	2.7	1.3 Blk
Head Coach		Jim Calhoun
Assistant		George Blaney
Assistant		Andre LaFleur
Assistant		Kevin Ollie
Team Stats		U Conn			Opp
Points Per Game		73.3			65.7
Field Goal %		43.5			40.0
3-point %		33.7			32.9
FT %		76.0			68.9
Rebounds Per Game		39.4			35.1
Turnovers Per Game		11.3			11.7
Steals Per Game		6.4
R + T (*)		4.91
SOS		61
Road Win %		77
PiRate Criteria #		11

 

Connecticut won five games in five days at the Big East Tournament and parlayed that into four more wins in the NCAA Tournament.  The Huskies have a chance to begin and end the season with separate double-digit game winning streaks.  In Kemba Walker, U Conn has the best player in the Final Four, but one player cannot do it alone.  The Huskies are anything but a one person team.  They can pound it inside with Alex Oriakhi and Charles Okwandu, and when Walker drives the lane, Jeremy Lamb is frequently open outside.  This Connecticut team is not as strong as the two national championship teams from Calhoun’s past, but the Huskies have enough talent to win a third for Calhoun.

 

Kentucky is the one team left in the tournament with a PiRate Criteria rating similar of past national champions.  Their 18 rating is actually better than Indiana in 1981, North Carolina State in 1983, Villanova in 1985, Kansas in 1988, and Arizona in 1997.  The Wildcats have very little depth with only seven players used unless the game is a major blowout.  With the extra long timeout lengths, this should not be a factor at all this weekend.  Although none of the players have Final Four experience, every game Kentucky plays is about as pressure-packed as a Final Four game.  We believe the Wildcats will not be affected or intimidated in this game.  However, the weird sightlines could make their outside shooting game suffer. 

 

These two teams met in Hawaii in November, and Connecticut won 84-67.  In that game, the Huskies quickly opened a 20-point lead in the first half and went to the locker room at the half up 50-29.  Connecticut couldn’t miss, while Kentucky couldn’t buy a basket.  Knight and Liggins were a combined 0-10 from three-point land, and Josh Harrellson did not score.  Walker scored 29 points for the winners, while Oriakhi recorded a double-double with 18 points and 11 rebounds.

 

This game will have a much different look.  This season, Kentucky has dominated teams that they have already played during the season.  They are 7-0 against teams that they played a second or third time.  We see this trend continuing.

 

Prediction: Kentucky 72  Connecticut 66