80 Teams Vying For 68 Spots Before Conference Upsets Upset The Apple Cart
As we approach the eve of the first conference tournaments, we here at the PiRate Ratings have crunched the numbers and come to a consensus on 80 total teams that are either locks to get into the Big Dance, just one or two wins away, on the bubble, or in the conversation for a possible at-large bid from a smaller conference.
Of course, there will be some conference tournament upsets, and with each upset, one bubble will burst.
Today, as we break down each category, we will focus on the bubble teams plus three special cases from smaller conferences. Unlike other sites, we factor in what we perceive to be back-room politics into our equation. A team like Kentucky in an off-year will still always receive preferential treatment over a team like Cleveland State or Southern Mississippi, and the committee can always reverse engineer enough data to support their decision.
Absolute Locks—These 25 Teams Are In The Dance
Figures shown are conference and overall record, RPI, and strength of schedule
When two teams have the same RPI, they are tied
TEAM Record RPI SOS
Duke 12-1/26-2 5 33
North Carolina 11-2/21-6 12 15
Xavier 12-1/21-6 24 47
Temple 11-2/21-6 32 79
Pittsburgh 13-2/25-3 6 25
Notre Dame 11-4/22-5 10 31
Louisville 10-5/21-7 23 23
St. John’s 10-5/18-9 15 4
Syracuse 10-6/23-6 17 24
Georgetown 10-6/21-7 7 2
Villanova 9-6/21-7 27 35
Connecticut 8-7/20-7 19 12
Ohio State 13-2/26-2 2 26
Purdue 12-3/23-5 23 18
Wisconsin 11-4/21-6 13 29
Texas 12-1/24-4 9 20
Kansas 11-2/26-2 1 13
Texas A&M 9-4/22-5 29 53
Missouri 8-5/22-6 30 68
San Diego State 12-1/27-1 4 38
B Y U 12-1/26-2 3 22
Arizona 12-3/23-5 14 48
Florida 11-2/22-5 11 9
Kentucky 7-6/19-8 16 17
Vanderbilt 8-5/20-7 22 19
Near Locks—These 12 Teams Need One Or Two More Wins To Be In The Dance
TEAM Record RPI SOS
Florida State 9-4/22-5 51 100
Cincinnati 9-6/22-6 35 88
West Virginia 8-7/17-10 20 3
Kansas State 7-6/19-9 28 7
Michigan State 8-7/16-11 37 5
Missouri State 14-3/22-7 46 138
Wichita State 14-3/23-6 47 108
U N L V 9-5/21-7 25 28
Washington 10-5/19-8 36 63
U C L A 11-4/20-8 38 50
Tennessee 7-6/17-11 31 1
Utah State 12-1/25-3 18 111
3 Teams That Could Get In The Conversation From A Non-Power Conference
(If they win out in the regular season and then lose in their conference tournament finals)
TEAM Record RPI SOS
Belmont 18-1/26-4 50 237
Oakland 16-1/21-9 58 132
Ivy League 2nd Place
Harvard 9-1/20-4 42 176
Princeton 8-1/20-5 55 195
14 Conferences That Will Send Only Their Automatic Bid Champion
Conference Top Team Won-Loss
America East Vermont 13-2/22-6
Big Sky Montana 12-3/20-8
Big South Coastal Carolina 15-2/25-4
Big West Long Beach State 12-2/18-10
M A A C Fairfield 14-2/22-5
M A C Kent State 10-3/19-9
Northeast Long Island 15-2/23-5
Ohio Valley Murray State 13-4/22-7
Patriot Bucknell 12-1/21-8
Southern College of Charleston 14-3/22-8
Southland McNeese State 9-4/17-9
S W A C Texas Southern 13-1/15-10
Sunbelt Florida Atlantic 12-3/20-9
26 Teams On The Bubble (absolutely must win the big games and not be upset)
TEAM Record RPI SOS
Virginia Tech 8-5/18-8 63 109
Clemson 7-6/18-9 65 84
Maryland 7-6/18-10 80 75
Boston College 6-7/16-11 49 16
Miami (Fla) 5-8/17-11 67 46
Richmond 10-3/21-7 62 130
Marquette 8-7/17-11 51 27
Baylor 6-7/17-10 87 64
Nebraska 6-7/18-9 77 74
Colorado 6-7/17-11 84 81
Illinois 7-8/17-11 39 11
Minnesota 6-9/17-10 48 32
Penn State 8-8/15-12 53 6
Michigan 7-9/17-12 66 21
V C U 12-5/21-9 53 115
Drexel 10-7/19-9 60 110
U A B 9-4/19-7 34 52
Memphis 9-4/21-7 33 40
Southern Miss. 9-4/21-6 41 99
Butler 12-5/20-9 45 80
Cleveland St. 12-5/23-7 42 107
Colorado St. 8-5/18-9 44 37
Georgia 7-6/18-9 40 29
Alabama 11-2/19-8 74 139
Gonzaga 10-3/20-9 64 78
St. Mary’s 10-3/22-7 56 121
As we see it, there are 51 spots basically secured at this point. 14 will go to low-major conference automatic qualifiers. 37 will go to teams that have basically already stamped their dance ticket.
17 spots are still up for grabs. The current bubble plus the three low-major teams that could earn an at-large bid totals to 29 teams. For each conference tournament in which there is an upset champion that would not have been an at-large candidate, one more bubble will burst.
Conference tournament play begins next week, and we will be here to cover it in depth. Check back daily once the first tournaments are set to begin. We will have the schedules for all the games and relay the results.
This all leads up to our most read story of every year. On the Monday following Selection Sunday, we will preview the First Four games at Dayton. On the Wednesday prior to the first regional games, we will preview all 64 remaining teams and show you our fantastic formula for picking the real contenders while dismissing the pretenders. Our PiRate Ratings Bracketology Formula has been very successful since it was implemented five years ago.
PiRate Ratings This Week
Let us look PiRate Rating Style at eight of the top teams this week. For those of you that have not discovered our rating criteria, you can read all about it in our past college basketball stories.
| Team | Pts. Margin | FG Margin | Rb Margin | TO Margin |
| Duke | 19.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| Florida | 9.2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 0.6 |
| Xavier | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 0.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 14.2 | 7.4 | 11.2 | 0.3 |
| Ohio State | 17.6 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 5.7 |
| Kansas | 12.6 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 1.6 |
| S. D. State | 13.8 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 2.3 |
| Utah State | 13.8 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 0.0 |
| Team | Stl | R+T | SOS | Road W-L | PiRate # |
| Duke | 7.8 | 10.3 | .5696 | 10-2 | 22 |
| Florida | 6.3 | 7.3 | .5944 | 9-2 | 14 |
| Xavier | 5.5 | 4.6 | .5577 | 8-5 | 8 |
| Pittsburgh | 5.0 | 11.6 | .5798 | 9-2 | 20 |
| Ohio State | 7.7 | 14.8 | .5786 | 8-2 | 21 |
| Kansas | 8.6 | 10.7 | .5917 | 11-1 | 26 |
| S. D. State | 5.9 | 10.1 | .5667 | 14-1 | 22 |
| Utah State | 4.6 | 9.6 | .5245 | 9-3 | 14 |
Any team with a PiRate Criteria number above 20 must be considered a legitimate candidate for the Elite 8. A score between 10 and 20 is usually good enough to make it to the Sweet 16, depending on their opposition’s score. Xavier’s current score of 8 is really only good enough for Two and Out. The Musketeers are not currently considered to be the Butler of 2011.
Florida’s score of 14 indicates the Gators could be gone after two games if they draw a tough opponent. The SEC does not currently have a legitimate Elite 8 team and in an at-worst scenario, all teams could be gone before the Sweet 16.
Utah State is in the same boat with Florida. The Aggies look good enough to contend for a deep run in the tournament, but it would require them to play pretenders. At 14, they should be considered at best a Sweet 16 participant and possibly a Two and Out team.
San Diego State’s score indicates that the Aztecs are a force to be reckoned with. If they draw a #1 or #2 seed, they could be in line for a run to the Final Four if their schedule does not find them playing a Kansas in the Elite 8.
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