The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 1, 2011

The PiRate Ratings’ NFL Playoffs Edition–Super Bowl XLV

Super Bowl XLV



Sunday, February 6, 2011, at Arlington, TX

6:30 PM EST on Fox-TV

Green Bay Packers (13-6-0) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4-0)



Pirate:       Green Bay 113.8           Pittsburgh 107.9

Mean:         Green Bay 110.9           Pittsburgh 109.8

Bias:           Green Bay 109.0           Pittsburgh 108.8


Vegas:        Green Bay by 2 ½

Totals:       44 ½

$-Line:       Green Bay -145            Pittsburgh +125

Halftime:   Green Bay by 1

Halftime Totals:       22 ½

 Our Ratings

PiRate:       Green Bay by 5.9

Mean:         Green Bay by 1.1

Bias:           Green Bay by 0.2


100 Computer Simulations:         Pittsburgh 51  Green Bay 49

Avg. Simulation Score:                    Green Bay 24.6  Pittsburgh 24.2

Simulation Outlier A:                      Pittsburgh 29  Green Bay 13

Simulation Outlier B:                      Green Bay 31  Pittsburgh 10


5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   Pittsburgh – 4        Green Bay – 1

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    Over – 5       Under – 0

We do not have official picks during the Playoffs, but here is our Unofficial pick for this week: 

Make this an official edict: FORGET IT!  The Standard deviation on all our possibilities makes this a truly 50-50 proposition. 

 If you absolutely must place a legal wager somewhere, we advise going with this one.  If the game is as close as our computer data predicts, you might be able to play the extremes and win with this 4-part parlay:

 13-Point Teaser

Green Bay +12 ½

Pittsburgh +15 ½

Over 31 ½

Under 57 ½

For What it’s worth, our Conference Championship Unofficial picks merely went 5-0.  Here they are again:

1. Green Bay & Chicago Under 21 ½ (Halftime Line)

2. Green Bay -3 vs. Chicago

3. Pittsburgh & New York Jets Over 19 ½ (Halftime Line)

4. Pittsburgh & New York Jets Over 38 ½  

5. 10-point Teaser Parlay

          1 Green Bay & Chicago OVER 33 ½

          2 Green Bay +7 Chicago

          3 Pittsburgh & New York Jets OVER 28 ½  

Beginning Next Week: We look at the NCAA Basketball Tournament by perusing each conference and telling you where the candidates stand.  This will culminate in our annual can’t miss NCAA Bracket Breakdown and our special formula that has been amazingly accurate at picking the winner before the first tournament game is played.  It picked Duke to win last year when the Blue Devils were not among the favorites.  It predicted a fall by Kansas and Kentucky prior to the Final Four and it correctly tabbed Georgetown and Vanderbilt as the two most likely ranked teams to fall in first round upsets.  Check out our past posts in the “College Basketball” Category.

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