For each playoff game, we show the PiRate, Mean, and Biased rating spreads. Then, we reveal the results of the 100 simulations. And, just for you, we will reveal the vote of the five of us in picking each game against the spread as well as the total.
We have access to a computer simulator that allows us to rapidly simulate games 100 times. We can simulate games based on certain statistical data, strength of schedule, and linear regression.
Saturday, January 8, 2011
4:30 PM EST on NBC-TV
New Orleans Saints (11-5-0) at Seattle Seahawks (7-9-0)
Vegas: NO by 10 ½
Totals: 44 ½
PiRate: NO by 9.3
Mean: NO by 6.5
Bias: NO by 4.9
100 Simulations: NO 84 SEA 16
Avg. Sim Score NO 32.7 SEA 16.8
Outlier A: NO 41 SEA 14
Outlier B: SEA 24 NO 19 (three others of 5 pts.)
5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread: SEA—3 NO—2
5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals: UND—4 OVR—1
8:00 PM EST on NBC-TV
New York Jets (11-5-0) at Indianapolis Colts (10-6-0)
Vegas: IND by 2 ½
Totals: 44 ½
PiRate: IND by 0.6
Mean: IND by 0.7
Bias: IND by 0.3
100 Simulations: NYJ 57 IND 43
Avg. Sim Score NYJ 22.8 IND 20.1
Outlier A: NYJ 27 IND 7
Outlier B: IND 30 NYJ 13
5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread: NYJ—3 IND—2
5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals: OVR—3 UND—2
Sunday, January 9, 2011
1:00 PM EST on CBS-TV
Baltimore Ravens (12-4-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-6-0)
Vegas: BAL by 2 ½
Totals: 41
PiRate: BAL by 2.3
Mean: BAL by 2.6
Bias: KC by 0.2
100 Simulations: BAL 52 KC 48
Avg. Sim Score BAL 21.8 KC 20.7
Outlier A: BAL 35 KC 13
Outlier B: KC 27 BAL 10
5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread: KC—4 BAL—1
5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals: OVR—3 UND—2
4:30 PM EST on FOX-TV
Green Bay Packers (10-6-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6-0)
Vegas: PHI by 2 ½
Totals: 46 ½
PiRate: GB by 3.5
Mean: GB by 4.6
Bias: GB by 1.1
100 Simulations: GB 67 PHI 33
Avg. Sim Score GB 34.1 PHI 26.7
Outlier A: GB 41 PHI 16
Outlier B: PHI 33 GB 14
5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread: GB—5 PHI—0
5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals: OVR—4 UND—1
The Pi-Rate Ratings 