The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 4, 2011

The PiRate Ratings’ NFL Playoffs Edition–Wildcard Round

For each playoff game, we show the PiRate, Mean, and Biased rating spreads.  Then, we reveal the results of the 100 simulations.  And, just for you, we will reveal the vote of the five of us in picking each game against the spread as well as the total.

We have access to a computer simulator that allows us to rapidly simulate games 100 times.  We can simulate games based on certain statistical data, strength of schedule, and linear regression. 

Saturday, January 8, 2011

 4:30 PM EST on NBC-TV

New Orleans Saints  (11-5-0)  at Seattle Seahawks (7-9-0)

Vegas:        NO by 10 ½

Totals:       44 ½

PiRate:       NO by 9.3

Mean:         NO by 6.5

Bias:           NO by 4.9

100 Simulations:         NO 84  SEA 16

Avg. Sim Score             NO 32.7  SEA 16.8

Outlier A:                     NO 41  SEA 14

Outlier B:                     SEA 24  NO 19 (three others of 5 pts.)

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   SEA—3        NO—2

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    UND—4       OVR—1

 

8:00 PM EST on NBC-TV

New York Jets (11-5-0) at Indianapolis Colts (10-6-0) 

Vegas:        IND by 2 ½

Totals:       44 ½

 

PiRate:       IND by 0.6

Mean:         IND by 0.7

Bias:           IND by 0.3 

100 Simulations:         NYJ 57  IND 43

Avg. Sim Score             NYJ 22.8  IND 20.1

Outlier A:                     NYJ 27  IND 7

Outlier B:                     IND 30  NYJ 13

 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   NYJ—3        IND—2

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    OVR—3       UND—2      

 

Sunday, January 9, 2011

1:00 PM EST on CBS-TV

Baltimore Ravens (12-4-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-6-0)

Vegas:        BAL by 2 ½

Totals:       41 

PiRate:       BAL by 2.3

Mean:         BAL by 2.6

Bias:           KC by 0.2 

100 Simulations:         BAL 52  KC 48

Avg. Sim Score             BAL 21.8  KC 20.7

Outlier A:                     BAL 35  KC 13

Outlier B:                     KC 27  BAL 10

 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   KC—4           BAL—1       

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    OVR—3       UND—2      

 

 4:30 PM EST on FOX-TV

Green Bay Packers (10-6-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6-0)

Vegas:        PHI by 2 ½

Totals:       46 ½  

PiRate:       GB by 3.5

Mean:         GB by 4.6

Bias:           GB by 1.1 

100 Simulations:         GB 67  PHI 33

Avg. Sim Score             GB 34.1  PHI 26.7

Outlier A:                     GB 41  PHI 16

Outlier B:                     PHI 33  GB 14

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   GB—5            PHI—0       

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    OVR—4       UND—1      

 

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