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December 20, 2010

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation–Quarterfinals

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation—Quarterfinal Round


You are looking live at College Football Playoff Computer Simulation for 2010-11.


In the first round, Arkansas defeated Michigan State, Wisconsin defeated Connecticut, Boise State defeated Oklahoma, and Ohio State knocked off Virginia Tech.


For those of you that did not read our feature from last week, here are the particulars.  We have access to a university computer that has a simulation program that has been used for several years to pick football winners.  Its results in picking winners have been quite accurate, but it has failed in picking games against the spread.  Thus, it can only be used to pick winners.


We have used this simulator for three and a half years.  If you follow our NFL playoff coverage, then you have seen how accurate it can be.


Last year, the simulator gave us Boise State as the national champion, defeating TCU in the “Simper Bowl.”  The results were similar to the actual Fiesta Bowl won by Boise State.


Our simulated playoffs started with 12 teams.  We took the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and awarded them automatic bids.  We then took all other conference champions that finished in the top 12 of the BCS and awarded them automatic bids.  We then selected the highest-rated BCS teams not already given automatic bids and awarded at-large bids until we had our “Dandy Dozen.”  The teams were then seeded 1-12 based on their BCS rating.


The top four seeds received first round byes as a reward.  We limit our playoff to 12, because we feel the number 16 team would never be deserving of winning the national championship, while there have been seasons where the number 12 team could have been a contender.


With a 12-team playoff, we needed 11 games.  So, we used the top 11 bowls to play these games.  The first round began last Monday with four games being played.  The quarterfinals will run today; the semifinals run next Monday, December 27, and the Championship Game will run on Monday, January 3.


In prior years, we used one simulation and reported the score and stats.  This year, we changed our format. 


We are running the simulation 100 times and taking the average score of these 100 simulations as our score for the playoff game. 


We will show you how many games each team won, the average score of these 100 simulations, the outlier scores on both sides, and the average rushing and passing yards for each team.


Here is the bracket for this season’s playoffs:


First Round

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech


As we stated above, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Boise State, and Ohio State emerged victorious in the opening round games. 


Here are the matchups for today’s quarterfinal round.


Sugar Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn

Cotton Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford

Fiesta Bowl: #10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon

Capital One Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U


The simulations have been conducted, and here are the results.



Sugar Bowl

#8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn




Average Score: Auburn 44.6  Arkansas 23.9

Auburn wins: 93

Arkansas wins: 7

Outlier A: Auburn 59  Arkansas 17

Outlier B: Arkansas 49  Auburn 42 2OT

Average Auburn Yards: rush-231  pass-280

Average Arkansas Yards: rush-108  pass-271


Cotton Bowl

#5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford




Average Score: Wisconsin 43.3  Stanford 36.1

Wisconsin wins: 59

Stanford: 41

Outlier A: Wisconsin 51  Stanford 30

Outlier B: Stanford 40  Wisconsin 27

Average Wisconsin Yards: rush-251  pass-208

Average Stanford Yards: rush-106  pass-311


Fiesta Bowl

#10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon




Average Score: Oregon 50.6  Boise State 31.7

Oregon wins: 88

Boise State wins: 12

Outlier A: Oregon 56  Boise State 16

Outlier B: Boise State 48  Oregon 35

Average Oregon Yards: rush-307  pass-277

Average Boise State Yards: rush-133  pass-299


Capital One Bowl

#6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U




Average Score: Ohio State 19.7  T C U 14.4

Ohio State wins: 60

T C U: 40

Outlier A: Ohio State 28  T C U 6

Outlier B: T C U 20  Ohio State 7

Average Ohio State Yards: rush-147  pass-155

Average T C U Yards: rush-97  pass-146


The semifinal round is set.  In the Orange Bowl, top-seeded Auburn takes on number five seed Wisconsin.  In the Rose Bowl, number two seed Oregon faces number six seed Ohio State.  Have a Merry Christmas, and we will see you next Monday with the new results.

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