The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 13, 2010

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation


You are looking live at College Football Playoff Computer Simulation for 2010-11.


Can Boise State defend their Simper Bowl title from last season?  Will Auburn and Oregon make it to the title game?  Is there a dark horse team that can emerge like Butler in basketball?


Let’s get started with the particulars.  We have access to a university computer that has a simulation program that has been used for several years to pick football winners.  Its results in picking winners have been quite accurate, but it has failed in picking games against the spread.  Thus, it can only be used to pick winners.


We have used this simulator for four and a half years.  If you follow our NFL playoff coverage, then you have seen how accurate it can be.


Last year, the simulator gave us Boise State as the national champion, defeating TCU in “Simper Bowl III.”  The results were similar to the actual Fiesta Bowl won by Boise State, as the teams played to a 10-10 tie in regulation before Boise won in six overtimes 39-37.


Southern California won the first two Simper Bowls, 38-24 over Oklahoma in Simper Bowl I and 27-23 over Florida in Simper Bowl II.


Our simulated playoffs have 12 teams.  We take the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and award them automatic bids.  We then take all other conference champions that finish in the top 12 of the BCS and award them automatic bids.  We then select the highest-rated BCS teams not already given automatic bids and award at-large bids until we have our “Dandy Dozen.”  The teams are then seeded 1-12 based on their BCS rating.


The top four seeds receive first round byes as a reward.  We also limit to 12, because we feel the number 16 team would never be deserving of winning the national championship, while there have been seasons where the number 12 team could have been a contender.


With a 12-team playoff, we need 11 games.  So, we use the top 11 bowls to play these games.  The first round begins today with four games being played.  The quarterfinals will run next Monday; the semifinals on Monday, December 27, and the Championship Game on Monday, January 3.


In prior years, we used one simulation and reported the score and stats.  This year, we are changing our format.  We are running the simulation 100 times and taking the average score of these 100 simulations as our score for the playoff game. 


We will show you how many games each team won, the average score of these 100 simulations, the outlier scores on both sides, and the average rushing and passing yards for each team.


Here is the bracket for this season’s playoffs:


First Round

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech



Sugar Bowl: #1 Auburn vs. Arkansas or Michigan State

Cotton Bowl: #4 Stanford vs. Wisconsin or Connecticut

Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oregon vs. Oklahoma or Boise State

Capital One Bowl: #3 T C U vs. Ohio State or Virginia Tech



Orange Bowl: Winners of the Sugar and Cotton Bowls

Rose Bowl: Winners of the Fiesta and Capital One Bowls


Simper Bowl IV—The National Championship Game

Orange Bowl winner vs. Rose Bowl winner


Are you ready?  Here are the results of the first round games.


Outback Bowl

#8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State




Average Score: Arkansas 30.4  Michigan State 27.6

Arkansas wins: 59

Michigan State wins: 41

Outlier A: Arkansas 44  Michigan State 17

Outlier B: Michigan State 37  Arkansas 20

Arkansas Avg Yards: rush-113  pass-274

Michigan State Avg Yards: rush-144  pass-228


Chick-fil-A Bowl

#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut




Average Score: Wisconsin 43.7  Connecticut 22.6

Wisconsin wins: 94

Connecticut wins: 6

Outlier A: Wisconsin 61  Connecticut 13

Outlier B: Connecticut 33  Wisconsin 28

Average Wisconsin Yards: rush-246  pass-234

Average Connecticut Yards: rush-153  pass-159


Insight Bowl

#7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State




Average Score: Boise State 37.3  Oklahoma 29.2

Boise State wins: 66

Oklahoma wins: 34

Outlier A: Boise State 41  Oklahoma 20

Outlier B: Oklahoma 34  Boise State 26

Average Boise State Yards: rush-157  pass-269

Average Oklahoma Yards: rush-128  pass-249


Alamo Bowl

#6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech




Average Score: Ohio State 26.0  Virginia Tech 18.7

Ohio State wins: 68

Virginia Tech: 32

Outlier A: Ohio State 37  Virginia Tech 10

Outlier B: Virginia Tech 24  Ohio State 17

Average Ohio State Yards: rush-151  pass-177

Average Virginia Tech Yards: rush-111  pass-149



The quarterfinal round is now set and will be played next Monday, December 20.  Here is the schedule.


Sugar Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn

Cotton Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford

Fiesta Bowl: #10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon

Capital One Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U

1 Comment

  1. I’m not sure exactly why but this site is loading
    very slow for me. Is anyone else having this issue or is it a issue on my end?
    I’ll check back later and see if the problem still exists.

    Comment by Seymour — October 18, 2014 @ 2:50 pm

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