PiRate Picks Against The Spread For Last Week
We had to wait a day to post our results of last week’s picks against the spread because we wanted to go with the Patriots on Monday Night Football. Thanks to that game completing a successful parlay, our picks finished 2-1 for the week.
Before we review our picks, let us take this brief moment to send an advanced warning to our subscribers. We will only make one selection this week, but this is not to infer that we consider it an iron-clad lock of the year. With the college season over except for the Army-Navy game (which we will lay off), it leaves just NFL games until the start of the bowls. We have five or six games we like, but we can only make one, 13-point teaser parlay. Consider this game like all others we give to you—on equal footing.
Okay, let us now review our three selections from last week.
1. 13-point Teaser Parlay
Minnesota +7 ½ vs. Buffalo, Cleveland +18 ½ vs. Miami, Tennessee +9 ½ vs. Jacksonville, and Denver +20 ½ vs. Kansas City
Loss
The Tennessee Titans, and their lack of offense, did us in on this parlay. We liked all four underdogs covering against these big numbers, but the Titans lost by 11 after extending their streak of not scoring an offensive touchdown for almost 3 ½ games.
2. 13-point Teaser Parlay
New York Giants +5 ½ vs. Washington, Chicago +8 vs. Detroit, Green Bay +4 ½ vs. San Francisco, New Orleans +6 ½ vs. Cincinnati
WON
This is more of the same. We went with four favorites by small amounts and moved the spread so that they were now all underdogs.
3. 13-point Teaser Parlay
Oakland +26 vs. San Diego, St. Louis +10 vs. Arizona, Baltimore +16 vs. Pittsburgh, and New England +9 ½ vs. New York Jets
WON
We figured San Diego could not win by more than three touchdowns, so we took the Raiders, not expecting them to pull off the upset. We felt as if Arizona would have a tough time beating Carolina or Detroit by 10, so it was safe taking the Rams at that number. We believed the Steelers would score less than 17 points, so we loved the Ravens in this pick. And, we held on until Monday night so we could take the Patriots at home as almost double-digit ‘dogs.
| Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings | ||||||||||
| NFC East | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | ||
| Philadelphia | 8 | – | 4 | – | 0 | 344 | 281 | 106.9 | 104.9 | 105.6 |
| NY Giants | 8 | – | 4 | – | 0 | 308 | 247 | 105.9 | 103.7 | 105.2 |
| Dallas | 4 | – | 8 | – | 0 | 294 | 336 | 99.1 | 99.5 | 100.0 |
| Washington | 5 | – | 7 | – | 0 | 222 | 293 | 93.7 | 96.5 | 95.3 |
|
NFC North |
Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | ||
| Green Bay | 8 | – | 4 | – | 0 | 303 | 182 | 110.2 | 108.5 | 106.4 |
| Chicago | 9 | – | 3 | – | 0 | 246 | 192 | 103.4 | 104.1 | 104.2 |
| Minnesota | 5 | – | 7 | – | 0 | 227 | 253 | 98.5 | 99.4 | 99.3 |
| Detroit | 2 | – | 10 | – | 0 | 278 | 306 | 94.9 | 97.0 | 92.7 |
| NFC South | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | ||
| Atlanta | 10 | – | 2 | – | 0 | 304 | 233 | 106.1 | 105.1 | 106.7 |
| New Orleans | 9 | – | 3 | – | 0 | 299 | 227 | 105.6 | 103.3 | 105.7 |
| Tampa Bay | 7 | – | 5 | – | 0 | 243 | 251 | 99.3 | 100.1 | 101.4 |
| Carolina | 1 | – | 11 | – | 0 | 154 | 307 | 91.1 | 88.6 | 89.0 |
| NFC West | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | ||
| St. Louis | 6 | – | 6 | – | 0 | 232 | 237 | 97.2 | 97.2 | 97.4 |
| San Francisco | 4 | – | 8 | – | 0 | 203 | 259 | 96.9 | 95.3 | 95.1 |
| Seattle | 6 | – | 6 | – | 0 | 240 | 289 | 95.5 | 95.4 | 96.7 |
| Arizona | 3 | – | 9 | – | 0 | 200 | 338 | 86.0 | 89.1 | 89.9 |
| AFC East | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | ||
| New England | 10 | – | 2 | – | 0 | 379 | 269 | 111.3 | 108.6 | 110.9 |
| NY Jets | 9 | – | 3 | – | 0 | 267 | 232 | 102.8 | 102.7 | 104.4 |
| Miami | 6 | – | 6 | – | 0 | 215 | 238 | 100.0 | 100.3 | 99.1 |
| Buffalo | 2 | – | 10 | – | 0 | 243 | 333 | 96.3 | 96.0 | 95.1 |
| AFC North | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | ||
| Pittsburgh | 9 | – | 3 | – | 0 | 267 | 191 | 106.2 | 105.6 | 107.4 |
| Baltimore | 8 | – | 4 | – | 0 | 260 | 201 | 106.2 | 104.8 | 106.1 |
| Cleveland | 5 | – | 7 | – | 0 | 229 | 239 | 100.9 | 99.7 | 101.6 |
| Cincinnati | 2 | – | 10 | – | 0 | 255 | 322 | 95.2 | 95.6 | 92.4 |
| AFC South | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | ||
| Indianapolis | 6 | – | 6 | – | 0 | 317 | 290 | 100.6 | 101.3 | 100.1 |
| Houston | 5 | – | 7 | – | 0 | 288 | 321 | 100.3 | 99.3 | 99.0 |
| Jacksonville | 7 | – | 5 | – | 0 | 257 | 300 | 99.3 | 99.4 | 101.2 |
| Tennessee | 5 | – | 7 | – | 0 | 263 | 235 | 94.0 | 99.1 | 96.5 |
| AFC West | Won | Lost | Tied | Pts | Opp | PiRate | Mean | Biased | ||
| San Diego | 6 | – | 6 | – | 0 | 323 | 353 | 103.7 | 103.5 | 101.1 |
| Kansas City | 8 | – | 4 | – | 0 | 295 | 237 | 99.7 | 101.8 | 101.2 |
| Oakland | 6 | – | 6 | – | 0 | 283 | 269 | 99.5 | 99.1 | 100.0 |
| Denver | 3 | – | 9 | – | 0 | 256 | 333 | 94.1 | 95.1 | 93.3 |
| PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads | |||||||
| Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site | ||||||
| Week 14: December 9-13, 2010 | |||||||
| Vegas Line as of 1:00 PM EDT Tuesday | |||||||
| Favorite | Underdog | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Vegas | Totals | |
| Indianapolis | TENNESSEE | 3.6 | -0.8 | -0.6 | 3 | 46 1/2 | |
| JACKSONVILLE | Oakland | 2.8 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 4 1/2 | 43 | |
| PITTSBURGH | Cincinnati | 15.0 | 14.0 | 19.0 | 9 | 39 1/2 | |
| New England | CHICAGO | 4.9 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 3 | 41 | |
| Cleveland | BUFFALO | 2.6 | 1.7 | 4.5 | -1 1/2 | 40 | |
| New York Giants | MINNESOTA | 4.4 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 2 1/2 | 44 | |
| Green Bay | DETROIT | 11.3 | 7.5 | 9.7 | 6 1/2 | 47 1/2 | |
| Atlanta | CAROLINA | 12.0 | 13.5 | 14.7 | 7 1/2 | 42 | |
| Tampa Bay | WASHINGTON | 2.6 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 2 | 41 | |
| NEW ORLEANS | St. Louis | 11.4 | 9.1 | 11.3 | 9 | 47 | |
| SAN FRANCISCO | Seattle | 5.4 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 4 1/2 | 41 | |
| NEW YORK JETS | Miami | 6.8 | 6.4 | 9.3 | 5 1/2 | 41 | |
| Denver | ARIZONA | 5.1 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 4 | 43 | |
| SAN DIEGO |
Kansas City |
8.0 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 7 | 46 1/2 | |
| Philadelphia | DALLAS | 4.8 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 3 1/2 | 50 1/2 | |
| Baltimore | HOUSTON | 2.9 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3 | 45 1/2 | |
NFL Playoff Projections
NFC East
When the New York Giants bring their A-game, they are the best team in the NFC. When they don’t, they are not playoff worthy.
The Eagles have continued to play at an even keel for most of the season. We believe Philadelphia will edge the Giants for the Division title, while the Giants have to sweat it out in week 17 to see if they qualify for a Wildcard berth.
Division Winner: Philadelphia
Wildcard: None
NFC North
The Chicago Bears have come on strong as the weather turned cold. They have a tough closing schedule, and we believe they will fall a couple of times.
Green Bay has been the most consistent NFC team from week one to week 13. We believe the Packers will catch and pass the Bears in the final five games.
Minnesota has virtually no chance of getting into the playoffs, even if they run the table to finish 9-7. However, they could be a big spoiler.
Division Winner: Green Bay
Wildcard: Chicago
NFC South
Atlanta is in the cat-bird seat. The Falcons host New Orleans, and they own a three-point overtime win over the Saints at the Superdome. They have two games remaining with Carolina and a visit to Seattle. They could run the table, but at the worst, they should finish 13-3 and earn home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
The New Orleans offense is beginning to pick up the pace. The Saints have scored at least 30 points in each of their last four games. Their final three games are tough, having to play at Baltimore, at Atlanta, and hosting Tampa Bay. We cannot see them running the table.
Tampa Bay is still alive, but we believe the Buccaneers will finish no better than 9-7. 11-5 could be the necessary record to qualify as a wildcard this year.
Division Winner: Atlanta
Wildcard: New Orleans
NFC West
8-8 could very well be all that is needed to win this division. On the other hand, we could see two teams finishing 8-8. St. Louis and Seattle remained tied at 6-6. The Seahawks have a tougher final four games. They host Atlanta and St. Louis, and they play at San Francisco and Tampa Bay. They may be eliminated by the time the Rams come to Seattle in the final week.
Division Winner: St. Louis
Wildcard: None
AFC East
New England probably secured home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs with their six-touchdown win over the Jets last night. The Patriots are ripe for an upset loss this weekend at Chicago, but we believe they have a better than 50% chance of winning. They host the Packers the following week, and then close at Buffalo and at home against Miami. They could run the table, but they will win at least 13 games.
The Jets have had trouble scoring against the playoff caliber defenses. They still must play at Pittsburgh and at Chicago, and we believe they could lose both games. Home games with Buffalo and Miami should allow the Jets to hang on for a playoff spot.
Division Winner: New England
Wildcard: New York Jets
AFC North
Pittsburgh holds a one game lead over Baltimore. Both teams’ defenses are getting ready for that final drive to the finish. Baltimore has given up 36 points in their last three games, while Pittsburgh has yielded just 29. Both teams could run the table, but we believe Cleveland could upset Pittsburgh in a meaningless finale for the Steelers, while Baltimore could meet the same fate the week before.
Division Winner: Pittsburgh
Wildcard: Baltimore
AFC South
This division fell to pieces in a hurry. It is now a little weaker than the AFC West. Houston and Tennessee are headed to losing records, so it leaves Indianapolis and Jacksonville for the league crown. Jacksonville leads by a game, but the two teams must square off again at Indy in two weeks. This week’s contests could decide whether that game will be for all the marbles. The Colts play at Tennessee Thursday night, while Jacksonville hosts Oakland. Both should win those games, so a Colt win the following week could produce a tie at 8-6. The last two games favor the Jaguars, as they host Washington and close at Houston. Indianapolis must play at Oakland, and host Tennessee.
Division Winner: Jacksonville
Wildcard: None
AFC West
This just may be the most interesting race of all. Kansas City leads Oakland and San Diego by two games. The Chiefs must play at San Diego this week and then follow that up with a trip across the state to St. Louis. It would not surprise us if they were 8-6 after week 15. They close with Tennessee and Oakland at home.
San Diego’s season is done if they lost to Kansas City this week. If they get past the Chiefs, they have a great chance to win out with games against San Francisco at home and Cincinnati and Denver on the road. They have to run the table because they are currently 1-3 in the division and have already been swept by Oakland.
Oakland is still in this race at 6-6. They swept the Chargers and hold a win over Kansas City. Even if they lose at Jacksonville this week, wins over Denver and Indianapolis at home could make the finale at Kansas City for all the marbles.
Denver, with a new coach, could be a big spoiler. The Broncos get both San Diego and Oakland. They did split with Kansas City.
Division Winner: Kansas City
Wildcard: None
Projected Playoff Seedings
N F C
1. Atlanta
2. Green Bay
3. Philadelphia
4. St. Louis
5. New Orleans
6. Chicago
A F C
1. New England
2. Pittsburgh
3. Kansas City
4. Jacksonville
5. New York Jets
6. Baltimore
Projected Playoffs
Wildcard Round
Chicago over Philadelphia
New Orleans over St. Louis
Baltimore over Kansas City
New York Jets over Jacksonville
Divisional Round
Atlanta over Chicago
Green Bay over New Orleans
New England over Baltimore
Pittsburgh over New York Jets
Conference Championships
Green Bay over Atlanta
New England over Pittsburgh
Super Bowl
Green Bay over New England
The Pi-Rate Ratings 