The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 8, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 9-13, 2010

We’re In The Money

2010 has been a banner year for the PiRate Rankings.  Our picks against the spread for our customers have been hitting at better than 66.7% all year, but still we were in total shock when this past weekend’s games brought us an incredible 9-1-1 record.  For the year, our record moves to 56-23-3 for an incredible 70.9%.

 

It’s always nice to hear from you if you purchased our picks for the season back in August.  Why have we been so successful this year?  We believe it is the incredible parity in the NFL and a great deal of mediocrity in the NCAA.  So many of the NFL games have been close, and so many of the college teams after the top four or five are weaker than in past years.  So, when you play a 13-point teaser, it is like having gold in your hands if you know a little about numbers and football percentages.  Let’s take a look at our picks from this past weekend.

 

1. 13-point Teaser

Air Force +6 vs. Army, Miami (Fl) +5 ½ vs. Maryland, Texas A&M +16 ½ vs. Oklahoma, and Kansas State +16 ½ vs. Texas

WON

We had Air Force rated as a solid favorite over Army.  The Black Knights are enjoying their best season in years, but they do not have enough offense to face a potent Air Force team.  We figured the Falcons would win by 10-12 points, and even that was an understatement.

 

We felt that Miami had about a 65% chance of beating Maryland outright, so getting 5 ½ made us feel like it was a 95% chance of covering.  Our statement to our subscribers was, “Maryland’s record is too deceiving.  They could drop four in a row to finish 6-6.”

 

We are not about to tell you that we called for A&M to beat Oklahoma by two touchdowns, but we told our subscribers that, “Oklahoma cannot win this game by more than 10 points.”

 

As for the Kansas State-Texas game, we did call for KSU to win outright.  Getting 16 ½ points was pure gravy.

 

2. 13-point Teaser

Nevada +2 vs. Idaho, California -1 vs. Washington State, Stanford +4 vs. Arizona, and TCU +8 ½ vs. Utah

WON

We went with four clear favorites over four weaker opponents and got points in three of the four plays in the parlay.  We felt that all four would win by double digits, and even though Cal only won by seven, we easily won this teaser.

 

3. 13-point Teaser

Indiana +27 vs. Iowa, Michigan +6 ½ vs. Illinois, Wisconsin -10 vs. Purdue, and Arkansas +14 vs. South Carolina

WON

We were wrong in predicting how the Iowa-Indiana game would turn out, but it still won for us.  We expected a 35-24 type game and not the low scoring affair that happened.  As for Michigan-Illinois, we had to sweat this out for a while.  We expected the shootout, but we thought Michigan would win 42-31.  Tate Forcier pulled this one out for us.  He has to be the best number two QB in the nation.  Wisconsin needed to go well into the 3rd quarter before taking over this game, but they won by the same 21 points we predicted.  We called for Arkansas to outscore South Carolina.  We were looking for a 35-31 win, so the 21-point blowout was just fine for us.

 

4. Florida -14 vs. Vanderbilt

WON

We consider ourselves experts in the plight of poor Vanderbilt, as our founder grew up watching them play week after week.  He told us that Vanderbilt would be down 35 points by halftime, and he was off by six.  It was 41-0!

 

5. Louisiana Tech Pk vs. Fresno State

Loss

This is the one game we lost, and we thought it was one of our strongest plays of the week.  This is one of Fresno’s weaker teams in this run of winning years.  Thinking that a long trip to the Deep South might be a little too much, we went with Tech to win and missed it.

 

6. Tennessee -20 ½ vs. Memphis

WON

Again, we deferred to our founder and relied on his information in the Volunteer State.  He believed that Tennessee was better than an average C-USA team, and the average C-USA team was more than three touchdowns better than Memphis.  He also told us that Tennessee is 10-points better in November than in any other month.  That was good enough for us.

 

7. Buffalo Bills +3 vs. Chicago Bears

Push (Tie)

The Bears edged the Bills by a field goal to make this game a push.  We felt that Buffalo would break through for its first win playing on foreign soil.

 

8. Buffalo Bills & Chicago Bears OVER 40 ½

WON

We won the other part of this game by predicting it to be a 28-24 final.  The 41 points was a razor thin margin to win by, but we have lost our share of games by a point or half-point in the past, and those still counted as losses.

 

9. Arizona Cardinals +8 vs. Minnesota Vikings

WON

With the Vikings full of dissension, and Brett Favre tossing more interceptions than touchdowns, we thought the Minnesota defense would give up too many points, even to the lowly Cardinals.  Favre had a great day, but he tossed two interceptions.  The game stayed close, and Arizona almost won it outright.

 

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers & Atlanta Falcons OVER 44 ½

WON

We called this game almost exactly correct.  We called for the Falcons to win 28-24, but even though the actual final was a bit lower, it covered the total.

 

11. Green Bay Packers -7 ½ vs. Dallas Cowboys

WON

This was a gift from the odds makers.  Dallas is as weak as Carolina, but the public perception is that they are not.  Without Tony Romo, the spread should have been 13 ½ or even more. 

 

A New Number One

The PiRate Rankings have a new number one team.  TCU vaulted to first place after beating an undefeated Top 10 team on the road by 40 points.  This was a Utah team that proved it could beat Iowa State in Ames by several touchdowns more than Nebraska was able to do.

 

The Horned Frogs, unlike Auburn and Oregon, are equally strong on both offense and defense.  Boise State is proving to be the same.  We believe that both TCU and Boise State would defeat Oregon and Auburn in a national semifinal if there were playoffs.  The two non-automatic qualifiers are the two best teams in the land, even if our own PiRate Ratings has Oregon rated a little above Boise State.

 

The current BCS is just not acceptable as a real method of choosing the two best teams.  The two best teams should be the two teams playing the best.  Oregon and Auburn are both one half of a real juggernaut.  Neither has a championship defense.  Boise State and TCU have both a championship offense and defense.

 

What else do the MWC and WAC undefeated teams have to prove?  Boise State beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, and Utah massacred Alabama in the Sugar Bowl when they were given the chance.  Previously, Utah won its other BCS Bowl game in the 2004 season.

 

Here is where the BCS is flawed.  You have heard us say this before.  If you took the entire First and Second Team All-American squads and put them in a San Jose State uniform, and the Spartans went 12-0, they would not get the chance to play for the National Championship, even though it would be clear that they were 21 points better than any other team.  The National Championship Game should have the two best teams, or it is bogus.

 

The NCAA elite do not want to include the TCU’s and Boise State’s.  It is a corrupt system, and the PiRates are all about waging war against elitist corruption.  Wait until you see what we dictate for the bowls.  It is the only way to end this primitive system for selecting a national champion.

 

NCAA Top 25 November 8, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 T C U 134.5 9 0
2 Oregon 134.3 9 0
3 Boise State 132.2 8 0
4 Stanford 127.5 8 1
5 Ohio State 125.8 8 1
6t Arkansas 125.8 7 2
6t Alabama 125.8 7 2
8 Auburn 125.1 10 0
9 Oklahoma 123.2 7 2
10 Iowa 121.1 7 2
11 Virginia Tech 120.9 7 2
12 Nebraska 120.3 8 1
13 Florida State 119.1 6 3
14 Florida 119.0 6 3
15 Wisconsin 118.6 8 1
16 L S U 117.0 8 1
17 Arizona 117.6 7 2
18 North Carolina 117.5 6 3
19 Texas A&M 116.8 6 3
20 South Carolina 116.8 6 3
21 Georgia 116.6 5 5
22 Utah 116.0 8 1
23 Miami (Fla) 115.9 6 3
24 Missouri 115.9 7 2
25 Oregon State 115.5 4 4
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 4-2 6-3 119.1
Clemson 3-3 5-4 111.9
North Carolina State 3-2 6-3 107.9
Boston College 2-4 4-5 105.0
Maryland 3-2 6-3 102.3
Wake Forest 1-5 2-7 93.3
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 5-0 7-2 120.9
North Carolina 3-2 6-3 117.5
Miami-FL 4-2 6-3 115.9
Georgia Tech 3-3 5-4 112.6
Virginia 1-4 4-5 96.1
Duke 1-4 3-6 94.4

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Pittsburgh 3-0 5-3 111.5
West Virginia 1-2 5-3 111.5
Cincinnati 1-2 3-5 105.0
Connecticut 1-2 4-4 104.2
Louisville 2-2 5-4 104.0
South Florida 2-2 5-3 103.7
Syracuse 3-2 6-3 101.2
Rutgers 1-2 4-4 93.9

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 4-1 8-1 125.8
Iowa 4-1 7-2 121.1
Wisconsin 4-1 8-1 118.6
Michigan State 5-1 9-1 111.5
Michigan 2-3 6-3 106.7
Penn State 3-2 6-3 106.1
Illinois 3-3 5-4 106.1
Northwestern 2-3 6-3 95.9
Indiana 0-5 4-5 92.2
Purdue 2-3 4-5 91.6
Minnesota 0-6 1-9 91.5

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 4-1 8-1 120.3
Missouri 3-2 7-2 115.9
Kansas State 3-3 6-3 101.1
Colorado 0-5 3-6 97.8
Iowa State 3-3 5-5 96.0
Kansas 1-4 3-6 88.8
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 3-2 7-2 123.2
Texas A&M 3-2 6-3 116.8
Oklahoma State 4-1 8-1 112.8
Texas 2-4 4-5 108.7
Baylor 4-2 7-3 107.8
Texas Tech 3-4 5-4 105.5

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 5-0 7-2 104.7
Southern Mississippi 3-2 6-3 94.5
East Carolina 4-1 5-4 93.0
U A B 2-3 3-6 87.7
Marshall 2-3 3-6 84.5
Memphis 0-5 1-8 68.1
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 4-2 5-4 99.4
Tulsa 3-2 6-3 98.0
S M U 4-2 5-5 91.6
U T E P 3-4 6-4 84.4
Rice 1-4 2-7 80.8
Tulane 1-4 3-6 77.7

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Navy   6-3 105.4
Notre Dame   4-5 103.5
Army   5-4 88.2

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 5-1 8-2 96.5
Ohio U 5-1 7-3 90.4
Miami (O) 4-1 5-4 86.5
Kent St. 3-3 4-5 85.0
Bowling Green 1-4 2-7 77.6
Buffalo 1-4 2-7 76.4
Akron 0-6 0-10 65.2
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 5-0 7-2 98.6
Toledo 5-0 6-3 88.2
Western Michigan 2-3 3-6 83.7
Central Michigan 2-5 3-7 81.6
Ball State 2-4 3-7 73.9
Eastern Michigan 1-4 1-8 67.7

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 6-0 10-0 134.5
Utah 5-1 8-1 116.0
Air Force 3-3 6-4 106.8
B Y U 3-2 4-5 99.6
S. D. State 4-1 7-2 99.2
Colo. State 2-4 3-7 87.9
Wyoming 0-6 2-8 87.7
UNLV 1-4 1-8 81.5
New Mexico 1-4 1-8 74.7

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 6-0 9-0 134.3
Stanford 5-1 8-1 127.5
Arizona 4-2 7-2 117.6
Oregon St. 3-2 4-4 115.5
Southern Cal 3-3 6-3 114.0
California 3-3 5-4 110.7
Arizona St. 2-4 4-5 107.9
U C L A 2-4 4-5 106.1
Washington 2-4 3-6 103.5
Washington State 0-7 1-9 90.6

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida 4-3 6-3 119.0
South Carolina 4-3 6-3 116.8
Georgia 3-4 5-5 116.6
Kentucky 1-5 5-5 106.7
Tennessee 0-5 3-6 101.2
Vanderbilt 1-5 2-7 88.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Arkansas 4-2 7-2 125.8
Alabama 4-2 7-2 125.8
Auburn 6-0 10-0 125.1
L S U 5-1 8-1 117.7
Mississippi State 3-2 7-2 114.6
Ole Miss 1-4 4-5 102.6

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 4-1 5-3 87.4
Arkansas State 4-2 4-5 85.6
Florida International 3-1 3-5 83.1
Middle Tennessee 2-2 3-5 82.4
Louisiana-Monroe 3-3 4-5 78.8
Florida Atlantic 2-3 3-5 78.7
U. of Louisiana 2-3 2-7 78.1
North Texas 2-4 2-7 78.0
Western Kentucky 1-4 1-8 73.3

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 4-0 8-0 132.2
Nevada 3-1 8-1 111.3
Hawaii 5-1 7-3 104.9
Fresno State 4-1 6-2 97.9
Louisiana Tech 2-3 3-6 93.4
Utah State 1-4 3-6 89.4
Idaho 1-3 4-5 87.0
San Jose State 0-4 1-8 78.3
New Mexico State 1-4 2-7 74.1

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 2      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Toledo 13.4 34-21
       
Wednesday, November 3      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Miami (O) BOWLING GREEN 6.4 26-20
       
Thursday, November 4      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Pittsburgh CONNECTICUT 4.3 24-20
East Carolina U A B 2.3 35-33
       
Friday, November 5      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
BUFFALO Ball State 5.5 23-17
Boise State IDAHO 42.2 52-10
       
Saturday, November 6      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
AUBURN Georgia 11.5 42-30
ARKANSAS U t e p 44.9 62-17
Stanford ARIZONA STATE 16.1 40-24
Oregon CALIFORNIA 23.6 44-20
COLORADO Iowa State 4.8 35-30
FLORIDA STATE Clemson 10.2 34-24
FLORIDA South Carolina 5.2 26-21
Miami (Fl) GEORGIA TECH 0.3 27-27 to ot
Iowa NORTHWESTERN 22.2 42-20
KENTUCKY Vanderbilt 20.8 38-17
LOUISVILLE South Florida 3.3 24-21
MISSOURI Kansas State 17.8 35-17
Boston College DUKE 7.6 31-23
N. C. STATE Wake Forest 17.1 35-18
Virginia Tech NORTH CAROLINA 0.4 20-20 to ot
NEBRASKA Kansas 34.5 45-10
Syracuse RUTGERS 4.3 24-20
OHIO STATE Penn State 22.7 33-10
OKLAHOMA Texas Tech 20.7 48-27
OREGON STATE Washington State 27.9 38-10
Texas A&M BAYLOR 6.5 34-27
Oklahoma State TEXAS 1.1 35-34
Maryland VIRGINIA 3.2 27-24
WISCONSIN Indiana 29.2 42-13
MARSHALL Memphis 19.4 35-16
WEST VIRGINIA Cincinnati 9.5 27-17
ALABAMA Mississippi State 14.2 28-14
ILLINOIS Minnesota 17.6 38-20
ARKANSAS STATE Western Kentucky 14.8 42-27
FLORIDA ATLANTIC Louisiana-Lafayette 4.1 27-23
MIDDLE TENNESSEE North Texas 7.4 34-27
Michigan PURDUE 12.1 38-26
TENNESSEE Ole Miss 1.6 28-26
TROY Florida Int’l 7.3 34-27
CENTRAL FLORIDA Southern Miss 13.2 41-28
B y u COLORADO STATE 8.7 37-28
Army KENT STATE 0.2 20-20 to ot
WESTERN MICHIGAN Eastern Michigan 18.5 40-21
Utah NOTRE DAME 8.5 40-31
NAVY Central Michigan 26.8 47-20
Rice TULANE 0.1 30-30 to ot
T C U San Diego State 38.8 49-10
Louisiana Tech NEW MEXICO STATE 16.3 28-12
AIR FORCE New Mexico 35.1 45-10
ARIZONA Southern Cal 6.6 31-24
Utah State SAN JOSE STATE 8.6 37-28
L S U Louisiana-Monroe 41.9 45-3
HOUSTON Tulsa 4.4 42-38
Nevada FRESNO STATE 10.4 41-31
Wyoming U N L V 3.7 28-24

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 2      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Toledo 31-21 30-22
       
Wednesday, November 3      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Miami (O) BOWLING GREEN 28-28 to ot 34-13
       
Thursday, November 4      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Pittsburgh CONNECTICUT 24-16 23-17
East Carolina U A B 38-34 38-33
       
Friday, November 5      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
BUFFALO Ball State 26-21 27-12
Boise State IDAHO 41-12 56-14
       
Saturday, November 6      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
AUBURN Georgia 37-27 41-27
ARKANSAS U t e p 49-20 52-17
Stanford ARIZONA STATE 38-28 38-14
Oregon CALIFORNIA 41-24 54-18
Iowa State COLORADO 31-28 30-20
FLORIDA STATE Clemson 28-20 22-20
FLORIDA South Carolina 23-17 24-17
Miami (Fl) GEORGIA TECH 31-27 24-28
Iowa NORTHWESTERN 31-17 27-16
KENTUCKY Vanderbilt 35-21 42-20
LOUISVILLE South Florida 27-23 27-24
MISSOURI Kansas State 33-24 35-24
Boston College DUKE 29-26 20-23
N. C. STATE Wake Forest 40-18 28-13
Virginia Tech NORTH CAROLINA 27-24 28-24
NEBRASKA Kansas 39-7 45-17
Syracuse RUTGERS 28-26 26-27
OHIO STATE Penn State 26-10 24-14
OKLAHOMA Texas Tech 33-20 34-20
OREGON STATE Washington State 35-10 31-10
Texas A&M BAYLOR 34-32 35-31
Oklahoma State TEXAS 33-24 38-22
Maryland VIRGINIA 24-21 25-26
WISCONSIN Indiana 40-17 38-21
MARSHALL Memphis 37-21 37-19
WEST VIRGINIA Cincinnati 24-17 28-17
ALABAMA Mississippi State 23-10 20-10
ILLINOIS Minnesota 34-10 34-20
ARKANSAS STATE Western Kentucky 38-23 40-24
FLORIDA ATLANTIC Louisiana-Lafayette 25-17 21-18
MIDDLE TENNESSEE North Texas 35-30 33-27
Michigan PURDUE 34-25 38-23
TENNESSEE Ole Miss 28-26 31-26
TROY Florida Int’l 34-26 34-24
CENTRAL FLORIDA Southern Miss 35-23 35-26
B y u COLORADO STATE 34-28 41-22
Army KENT STATE 21-20 27-16
WESTERN MICHIGAN Eastern Michigan 35-17 33-23
Utah NOTRE DAME 34-24 34-21
NAVY Central Michigan 44-24 44-20
TULANE Rice 30-25 31-21
T C U San Diego State 38-10 45-10
Louisiana Tech NEW MEXICO STATE 23-10 25-19
AIR FORCE New Mexico 35-3 34-13
ARIZONA Southern Cal 31-26 30-23
Utah State SAN JOSE STATE 34-30 38-28
L S U Louisiana-Monroe 40-7 37-9
HOUSTON Tulsa 38-38 to ot 45-41
Nevada FRESNO STATE 38-30 40-30
Wyoming U N L V 31-28 26-28

 

The Bowls

A lot of the bowls are going to be games with 7-5 and 6-6 mediocrity this year.  Unless it is your team playing, there will be no need to tune any of them in.  If the bowls were instead used to host playoff rounds, with 11 bowls being used for 12 teams, then the remaining bowls could then invite teams with eight and nine wins instead of six and seven.

 

Here is our look at what we think will happen, but it is not what we think should happen.  If you ask us today, Boise State and TCU should meet for a third consecutive bowl season with the winner being declared National Champion.

 

Bowl Conference Prediction Conference Prediction
New Mexico MWC #4 or (5) B Y U 6-6 WAC (#3?) [Ohio U 8-4]
Humanitarian MAC #3 Miami (O) 8-5 WAC #(1) or 2 Nevada 10-2
New Orleans Sunbelt #(1) or 2 Troy 7-5 C-USA #5 UTEP 6-6
St. Petersburg Big East #6 Connecticut 6-6 C-USA #4-6 Sou. Miss 7-5
Las Vegas MWC #1 Utah 11-1 Pac 10 #5 Oregon St. 6-6
Poinsettia MWC #2 San Diego St. 8-4 Navy or WAC Navy 9-3
Hawaii Hawaii/WAC #3/4 Hawaii 10-3 C-USA #2-6 E C U 8-4
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8/SBC Northwestern 6-6 MAC #1-2 N. Illinois 11-2
Independence ACC #7 Georgia Tech 6-6 MWC #3 Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports Big East #2 S. Florida 7-5 ACC #3 Florida St. 8-5
Insight Big 12 #4 Oklahoma 9-3 Big 10 #4 or 5 Mich. St. 10-2
Military ACC #8 Maryland 6-6 C-USA #6 S M U 6-6
Texas Big 12 #6-7 Texas Tech 7-5 Big 10 #6-7 Illinois 8-4
Alamo Big 12 #3 Missouri 10-2 Pac 10 #2 Arizona 9-3
Armed Forces C-USA #3-4 Tulsa 8-4 MWC #3-5/Army Army 6-6
Pinstripe Big East #3-4 Syracuse 7-5 Big 12 #6-7 Baylor 7-5
Music City SEC # 7 Tennessee 6-6 ACC #6 Miami (F) 7-5
Holiday Big 12 #5 Texas A&M 9-3 Pac 10 #3 U C L A 6-6
Meineke Car Care ACC #4-5 Clemson 7-5 Big East #3-4 West Va. 7-5
Sun ACC #4 or 5 N.C. State 8-4 Pac 10 #4 California 6-6
Liberty SEC #8 or 9 Kentucky 6-6 C-USA #1 Central Fla. 11-2
Chick-fil-A SEC #3-6 Miss. State 8-4 ACC #2 N. Carolina 8-4
Dallas Football Classic Big 10 #6-7 Michigan 7-5 Big 12 #8/CUSA Kansas St. 7-5
Outback SEC #3-6 E Florida 9-4 Big 10 #3 Iowa 10-2
Capital One Big 10 #2 Ohio St. 10-2 SEC #2 L S U 10-2
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 Penn St. 8-4 SEC #6 S. Carolina 7-5
Rose BCS Pac10 Stanford 11-1 BCS Big 10 Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta BCS Big 12 Nebraska 11-2 BCS At-Large Pittsburgh 7-5
Orange BCS ACC Va. Tech 11-2 BCS At-Large Arkansas 10-2
Sugar BCS SEC [T C U 12-0] BCS At-Large Boise St. 12-0
GoDaddy.com Sunbelt # 2 Florida Int’l 6-6 MAC #1 or 2 Toledo 8-4
Cotton Big 12 #2 Oklahoma St. 11-2 SEC #3-6 W Alabama 9-3
Birmingham Big East #5 Louisville 7-5 SEC #8 or 9 Georgia 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 10 #6 [Temple 9-3] WAC #1 Fresno St. 7-5
National Championship *** BCS #1 *** Auburn 13-0 *** BCS #2 *** Oregon 12-0

 

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